Might as well re-post this breakdown I made a week or two ago:
Bored at work, so just pondering further about each studio and their timeline on the next game release. Using an average of 5-6 years for AAA game development here's where I am guessing they stand...
Naughty Dog - last original game release was June 2020. The new IP under Neil would've gone into pre-production around this time. They were also doing pre-production on TLOU Online, but they stopped dev on that. That means we're currently at the 4 year mark from the start of pre-production to today on their next original project. Based off of average turnaround time for most AAA games, it's likely this game would ship either in 2025 or 2026.
Santa Monica Studios - last original game release was November 2022. We also know that a new game under Cory is being made, and the last game shipped under Cory was released in April 2018. We don't know precisely when pre-production would have started, but it could be upwards of 6 years. Based on average AAA turnaround times, this game very well could release next year
Sucker Punch - last original game release was July 2020, with an original expansion released August 2021. It's all but certain that they're working on Ghost of Tsushima 2 and based on average AAA turnaround times this game could release either in 2025 or 2026
Guerrilla Games - last original game release was February 2022, with an original expansion released April 2023. It is highly speculated that there is a Horizon Online game in the works under Simon Larouche. Rumor has it this game could've been in development as early as 2018, which would put us around the 6 year mark now. Based on average AAA turnaround times this game could release next year
Insomniac Games - last original release was October 2023. We know they are working on a Wolverine game that was revealed to the world in late 2021 where it was said to be in very early development. That puts it at 3+ years, so based off of average AAA turnaround times this game could release in 2025 or 2026. It's also within the realm of possibility that a Spider-Man 2 DLC could show up around the 1 year anniversary of Spider-Man 2, if they follow the pattern of many other SIE studios with their tentpole releases.
Bend Studios - last original release was April 2019. We know based off reports that up until early 2021 Bend was working with Naughty Dog on a new Uncharted game, and then they asked to work on their own original project. That puts us at 3+ years for development, and we have no way of knowing how much pre-production was done prior to the studio going full steam ahead on this new IP. If we use the Days Gone release as the upper limit, this game could have been in development anywhere between 3.5 to 5 years. Based on average AAA turnaround times, this game could release 2025 or 2026
Housemarque Studios - last original release was April 2021 with a DLC released March 2022. We know the studio is working on a new IP so based off of average AAA turnaround times this game could release around 2026
Haven Studios - working on their first game, the studio was formed March 2021. Based on average turnaround time this game could release around 2026
Bluepoint - last original release was November 2020. Said to be working on an original title, this game could release in 2025 or 2026
Firewalk - first title releases this August
Media Molecule - last original release was February 2020, with some smaller releases within Dreams. We know they were supporting Dreams and in April 2023 they announced plans to end support for Dreams. We don't know specifically when development began on their next title and how much pre-production work might have been done prior to this announcement so that window could be anywhere been 1 to 4.5 years. This title could release anytime in the next 4 or so years.
Firesprite - last original release was February 2023. It has been said they were working on the Twisted Metal game that was moved over to them, but this game was cancelled around February 2024. It seems they're working on another game that's a dark horror narrative title, and that's been in development since at least September 2021. Based on average turnaround times, this game could release around 2026
Polyphony - last original release was March 2022. Based on average turnaround time, their next title could release around 2027
San Diego Studios - annual release of MLB, so their next title will release next year
Team Asobi - their next title releases this September
Neon Koi - Sony acquired them in August 2022. We have no frame of reference to guess when their title might release
Bungie - last original release was June 2024. They have announced their next title to be Marathon, and this game could release either in 2025 or 2026.
Then beyond that we have the apparent secret team under Jason Blundell, possibly working on the original IP that Deviation was previously working on. Far too many unknowns here to try and guess when their title might release.
By my count that's a potential of upwards of 14 SIE studios that could have an original title ready to release within the next couple of years. Then stack the mountain of XDEV studios on top of that.
What's my point? We gonna be eating REAL good. I keep saying it, but the latter half of this gen is gonna be defined by one word - DENSE.