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[Aaron Strife]

Last month, Democracy Corps (James Carville's pollster) ran a poll on Obama vs. Romney. They found the president up by 3, about in line with what the polls were showing then.

When they told the pollees about the Ryan plan and Mitt's support for it, his lead tripled to 9 points.

Obviously in the real world there's going to be a noise filter as some low-info voters are going to hear about ACA cutting Medicare or whatever, but Paul Ryan is nothing more than an albatross around Mitt Romney's neck.

 

[RDreamer]

Obviously in the real world there's going to be a noise filter as some low-info voters are going to hear about ACA cutting Medicare or whatever, but Paul Ryan is nothing more than an albatross around Mitt Romney's neck.

The weird thing is that the campaign knows about this. Proof is that immediately after the pick they were already putting out defensive material (the FAQ saying his budget isn't Romney's). That says something strange is up to me. It almost indicates that this might have been a Romney alone decision rather than the whole campaign.

Also there was an interesting point brought up on one of the morning shows today. Ryan and Romney are claiming Obama is cutting from Medicare, but the problem with that is that voters have a hard time actually believing a democrat would do that. They have to not only keep parroting that line, but they have to break through the stereotype that they themselves have created of democrats all while defending themselves from the same, more believable, charge.

 

[TacticalFox88]

McCain: Obama Attacks Succeeding At Painting Romney As Unacceptable



http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2...painting-mitt-romney-unacceptable.php?ref=fpa

I love it hahaha.

You really got to be kidding me with this garbage.

"He can't run on his record."

• Pulled us Out of Iraq
• Two years of private sector growth
• Created over 4 million PRIVATE sector jobs
• Saved the Auto Industry and essentially Michigan's economy
• Killed Osama bin Laden when most of his advisors were against it
• Killed Gaddafi with not even a single American casualty
• Lowest taxes for middle classes in decades.

Really, McCain? REALLY?

 

[Particle Physicist]

"He can't run on his record."

• Pulled us Out of Iraq
• Two years of private sector growth
• Created over 4 million PRIVATE sector jobs
• Saved the Auto Industry and essentially Michigan's economy
• Killed Osama bin Laden when most of his advisors were against it
• Killed Gaddafi with not even a single American casualty
• Lowest taxes for middle classes in decades.

Really, McCain? REALLY?

Basically, he is saying that only Republicans are allowed to attack Obama on his record, but the same cannot be done to Mitt. It's hilarious. How dare you attack his record effectively!

 

[worldrunover]

"He can't run on his record."

• Pulled us Out of Iraq
• Two years of private sector growth
• Created over 4 million PRIVATE sector jobs
• Saved the Auto Industry and essentially Michigan's economy
• Killed Osama bin Laden when most of his advisors were against it
• Killed Gaddafi with not even a single American casualty
• Lowest taxes for middle classes in decades.

Really, McCain? REALLY?

That's a common Republican trope. "He's just attacking because he hasn't done anything!" You know, except turn our country into a failing European state somehow. In reality Obama is trying to define Romney before he can. I think after the conventions Obama will rely much more on his record.

On a somewhat related note, did anyone see Preibus on MTP this morning say Obama stole $700 billion from medicare to fund European healthcare? It was LOLworthy.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Christ, this campaign is a mess. Now Gillespie is saying Romney would have signed the Ryan budget. So, embrace Ryan's budget, then pick him, then release something say "no no no that's not my budget," and now "yeah totally I would have signed it!" They want everything both ways. They want their cake and to eat it, too.

Romney's position has always been that he would sign the budget if it came to his desk, but that he plans on proposing his own budget as well. Suggesting he knows Ryan's budget won't pass

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Ryan will not join Romney in Florida. lol

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Romney's position has always been that he would sign the budget if it came to his desk, but that he plans on proposing his own budget as well. Suggesting he knows Ryan's budget won't pass

It will if Republicans win control of the Senate

 

[Stinkles]

McCain: Obama Attacks Succeeding At Painting Romney As Unacceptable



http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2...painting-mitt-romney-unacceptable.php?ref=fpa

I love it hahaha.

You really got to be kidding me with this garbage.

Didn't his proxies suggest Obama would murder thousands of people via socialist death panels?

And that plant worker's story is still true and is a horrific indictment of Romney AND the old health care system.

 

[Triple U]

Romney's position has always been that he would sign the budget if it came to his desk, but that he plans on proposing his own budget as well. Suggesting he knows Ryan's budget won't pass

So in other words, he would have supported that horrible budget. Ok, cool.

 

[Particle Physicist]

CNN: "Efforts to keep Ryan choice secret worthy of spy novel"

They are really trying to play this up! lol

 

[TacticalFox88]

Romney's position has always been that he would sign the budget if it came to his desk, but that he plans on proposing his own budget as well. Suggesting he knows Ryan's budget won't pass

Dat budgetary spin.

 

[Tim-E]

Ryan will not join Romney in Florida. lol

LOL Obama is going to carpet bomb that state over the next three months. I was uncertain as to whether or not Obama would win there this year, but Ryan being on the ticket gives me new hope. Mitt has absolutely no path to victory without it.

 

[Averon]

Ryan will not join Romney in Florida. lol

Ryan is poison in Florida. The Romney camp knows this. Makes them picking Ryan as VP all that more idiotic.

 

[Four_Chamber]

Ryan will not join Romney in Florida. lol

Unfortunately for Romney, that's not going to change anything. Prepare for the Medicare assault. It's just too easy now.

Like I said earlier in the thread, a Democrat was able to comfortably win the blood red NY-26 running on one issue: opposition to this doomsday Ryan debacle of a budget. If this is how the GOP wants to frame the debate, there are going to be a LOT of downballot seats that will be in play now for the Democrats.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Unfortunately for Romney, that's not going to change anything. Prepare for the Medicare assault. It's just too easy now.

Like I said earlier in the thread, a Democrat was able to comfortably win the blood red NY-26 running on one issue: opposition to this doomsday Ryan debacle of a budget. If this is how the GOP wants to frame the debate, there are going to be a LOT of downballot seats that will be in play now for the Democrats.

I know what happened in NY-26, I don't think this will be quite that easy.

We will wait and see.

 

[Loudninja]

I know what happened in NY-26, I don't think this will be quite that easy.

We will wait and see.

That was easy?

 

[cartoon_soldier]

That was easy?

Paul Ryan wasn't defending his budget at that time.

He is a good speaker, and sells his shtick well, whatever he has to do to sell it.

 

[Tim-E]

I know what happened in NY-26, I don't think this will be quite that easy.

We will wait and see.

I don't think anyone is claiming it will be easy, but a lot of democrats in close House races now have a pretty damn good message to latch on to. When the national conversation turns to Medicare, House candidates can latch themselves onto it and if their opponent voted for Ryan's budget, then they can run with it.

Paul Ryan wasn't defending his budget at that time.

He is a good speaker, and sells his shtick well, whatever he has to do to sell it.

The campaign is trying to run away from it. History shows that they aren't very good at addressing hard issues, so they just pretend it isn't there. He's not trying to sell it at all.

 

[Four_Chamber]

Instead of making this a referendum on the economy/unemployment right now (which is a very tough fight given the status quo), the Democrats now can make this election about Medicare/Social Security/education. This makes the life of the average Democrat running against a Republican a lot easier- this will give every single Democratic candidate a compelling argument against their opponent.

Personally, if I was a GOP running for a seat on Capitol Hill, I would not be too happy to have presidential politics forcing me to defend such a toxic position.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Ryan on the ticket was the only way I imagined dems could win back the house. I figured even if Romney lost big, republicans would still show up to vote for their congressmen who have done a good job since 2010 (from a right winger perspective, not mine) opposing Obama. But if the economy doesn't crash, gets better, AND dems play their cards right in terms of tying Ryan to every contested house race....who knows. Of course, this is such a perfect scenario that I find myself doubting it.

No wonder Ryan isn't going to Florida lol

 

[TacticalFox88]

From my local newspaper.

ROFL!

 

[Tim-E]

From my local newspaper.

ROFL!

From the @PaulRyanGosling Twitter account:

"Hey girl, Mitt and I partied way too hard last night. Motherfucker had FIVE Diet Sprites. The dude is insane."

 

[RDreamer]

Hahaha, Maddow was talking to some strategists or something Friday about how much Republicans are getting in funding someone said "At this point we're just praying he picks Paul Ryan, and any money we have left after that will be spent on a margarita machine."

 

[PhoenixDark]

Paul Ryan wasn't defending his budget at that time.

He is a good speaker, and sells his shtick well, whatever he has to do to sell it.

I do agree reaction to the Ryan budget can be determined by who presents it, and how. Ryan is good at selling his stuff and the media will let him. Meanwhile negative ads will be trying to make the opposite case, and likely be dismissed by many in the media. We'll see.

I don't think Ryan can dance around it forever, even with the media's help. Many people are already familiar with his budget

 

[RDreamer]

Holy crap. Is anyone watching Meet the Press? I'm surprised Maddow didn't just haul off and slap that guy. I would have.

 

[Paches]

Holy crap. Is anyone watching Meet the Press? I'm surprised Maddow didn't just haul off and slap that guy. I would have.

That National Review guy was acting like a 3rd grader.

 

[pigeon]

Paul Ryan wasn't defending his budget at that time.

He is a good speaker, and sells his shtick well, whatever he has to do to sell it.

He's not defending it now, either, or he'd be going to Florida and the campaign would be talking about it more. Basically Romney/Ryan is behaving at this point like the biggest risk to them is that he MIGHT defend it.

 

[Raine]

That National Review guy was acting like a 3rd grader.

Seriously. That was disgusting.

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

Holy crap. Is anyone watching Meet the Press? I'm surprised Maddow didn't just haul off and slap that guy. I would have.

No. What happened?

 

[Tim-E]

Holy crap. Is anyone watching Meet the Press? I'm surprised Maddow didn't just haul off and slap that guy. I would have.

That guy was an enormous dick.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Headlines Romney could do without, from the NYT:

Romney’s Choice Brings Tea Party to G.O.P. Ticket

The ascendency of Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin to vice-presidential candidate on the Republican ticket is a signal event for the Tea Party movement, which firmly counts him as one of their own.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/12/ryan-brings-the-tea-party-to-the-ticket/?hp

It's too late for Romney to try and pivot to the center in any way, but the Ryan pick solidifies him in the far right corner. In addition to telegraphing that he will do as instructed by picking Ryan, the pick tethers him to policies he can't run from. I'm still baffled - and delighted - at the decision.

 

[RDreamer]

No. What happened?

She was trying to make a point about how do you attack someone on something you yourself are doing and agreeing with. He just kept repeating that she should, as a democrat, defend the medicare cut that the ACA makes. She was trying to say she's not running for president, so her opinion on it is void, and she was just, again, making the point that the same cut was something Ryan agreed with and kept in his budget.

Whenever she tried to utter even a word or two he just kept repeating "defend it" and talked over her. It was like a 3 year old in an argument.

 

[sc0la]

This man could be a Heartthrob away from the presidency!

 

[Clevinger]

Last month, Democracy Corps (James Carville's pollster) ran a poll on Obama vs. Romney. They found the president up by 3, about in line with what the polls were showing then.

When they told the pollees about the Ryan plan and Mitt's support for it, his lead tripled to 9 points.

This is not a good summary of the poll. They polled in two ways with the Ryan plan: describing it with Ryan's language, and describing it differently. With the way Ryan describes it, it has a 52% approval. It has a bad approval otherwise.

This means that whoever can convince voters about the Ryan plan first with their own spin will largely be the decider, and I'd put money on Republicans (+ the media enabling them) being able to do that.

 

[codhand]

Awesome read EV. So true about "losses" being a tool in a person's financial arsenal. Also it indirectly points out that these "job creators" are nothing more than people with boatloads of cash in complex investments, wanting better return on their money all for doing nothing, there's a reason it's called "unearned income", but tell that to some people and they would be defensive, conflating what they do with their spare cash as some kind of natural order for the global economy.

 

[RDreamer]

This is not a good summary of the poll. They polled in two ways with the Ryan plan: describing it with Ryan's language, and describing it differently. With the way Ryan describes it, it has a 52% approval. It has a bad approval otherwise.

This means that whoever can convince voters about the Ryan plan first with their own spin will largely be the decider, and I'd put money on Republicans (+ the media enabling them) being able to do that.

Maybe overall, but if Ryan isn't even coming to Florida to describe it himself, then that's a lost cause there. The dems will win in that specific state.

The main thing, though, is that the Romney campaign has immediately gone back against the Ryan plan and said they wouldn't do that. It seems to me their defense isn't going to be to explain it better, but rather explain that's not what they're going to do, specifically. The more Ryan actually explains his plan the more it's linked to Romney and the more people believe that's actually what they're going to do.

Really they have two roads to go down, and I don't think they can toe the line on both effectively. Either explain it and embrace it or disavow it and say that's not the plan you're going with.

 

[Suikoguy]

Really they have two roads to go down, and I don't think they can toe the line on both effectively. Either explain it and embrace it or disavow it and say that's not the plan you're going with.

Option 3:

Both disavow and embrace it!

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

From my local newspaper.

ROFL!

Hoverhand

 

[Aaron Strife]

This is not a good summary of the poll. They polled in two ways with the Ryan plan: describing it with Ryan's language, and describing it differently. With the way Ryan describes it, it has a 52% approval. It has a bad approval otherwise.

This means that whoever can convince voters about the Ryan plan first with their own spin will largely be the decider, and I'd put money on Republicans (+ the media enabling them) being able to do that.

I think it'll be Obama. Romney's business record, previously his #1 reason for running, was torn to shreds by his campaign.

 

[RDreamer]

Option 3:

Both disavow and embrace it!

They can do that, and knowing Romney's campaign they just might, but as I said I don't think it's even possible to do that effectively. You're metaphorically splitting your forces and arguing on two fronts. I mean if the thing you're explaining is so awesome, why aren't you running on it? It won't work, but I welcome them to try.

Edit: It's really almost the exact same thing as why Romney can't mention Romneycare.

 

[Dan]

Option 3:

Both disavow and embrace it!

Bingo. Let the tea party folks believe he supports Ryan's plan, then try to convince the general public that it's not his plan.

They can do that, and knowing Romney's campaign they just might, but as I said I don't think it's even possible to do that effectively. You're metaphorically splitting your forces and arguing on two fronts. I mean if the thing you're explaining is so awesome, why aren't you running on it? It won't work, but I welcome them to try.

It's not a winning strategy, no. It's definitely one born of weakness.

 

[RDreamer]

Bingo. Let the tea party folks believe he supports Ryan's plan, then try to convince the general public that it's not his plan.

This is like trying to let the tea party folks believe he wants to repeal Obamacare, but trying to convince the general public that Romneycare was totally awesome! Yeah, there's a reason they're not doing that.

I'd welcome them to try that approach, though, lol.


And, also, convincing the general public that it's not his plan means, again, not explaining it in Ryan's words to them. It means explaining that's not their plan. Meanwhile Obama will be attacking this plan that's still attached to them. That leads to the disapproval with Ryan and his plan that the study talked about.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Headlines Romney could do without, from the NYT:


http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/12/ryan-brings-the-tea-party-to-the-ticket/?hp

It's too late for Romney to try and pivot to the center in any way, but the Ryan pick solidifies him in the far right corner. In addition to telegraphing that he will do as instructed by picking Ryan, the pick tethers him to policies he can't run from. I'm still baffled - and delighted - at the decision.

One of the few things I liked about Meet The Press today was the general argument that this election will truly be a choice between two distinct visions. If Romney wins, the American people will have chosen brutal austerity. If Obama wins, they will have chosen more government.

I think most people who thought Obama would win last week figured it might be a "big" EV win, but overall the board wouldn't be changed too much: dems hold the senate, win a few house seats, and we go back to stagnation. Myself and others who thought Romney would win (last week) argued he could only win a close election - both in terms of the EV and popular vote; likewise the house and senate will probably stay similar. I think we now have a chance at a wave election going one way or the other. If the economy tanks next month as it did in 2008 it won't matter what Ryan has to say about Medicare: dems will be ousted, 2010 style.

But even I admit that with this Ryan budget and the potential of six figure jobs growth in the coming months, Obama has a chance to replicate the 2008 results across the country and dems can re-take the house. If that happens, I hope dems take notes on what happened in 2009/2010 and focus entirely on the economy. No grand energy policy attempts, no grand immigration battle, no revisit to Wall Street reform: the Jobs Act should be #1 on the priority, and if dems take the house they better do something about the filibuster in the senate.

 

[ClassyPenguin]

This man could be a Heartthrob away from the presidency!

 

[TacticalFox88]

So, do people still think I"m crazy for saying that Obama can replicate his 2008 margins or better?

:lol

 

[cartoon_soldier]

This is what played out today and will play out over the next month (This doesn't take into account whether any of the campaigns are actually telling the truth or not):

GOP:
Romney/Ryan are serious about tackling the deficit with their budget plans. By picking Ryan, Romney is serious about these solutions and creating jobs. Oh, and his Medicare proposal is co-sponsored by a Democrat so he brings bipartisanship too. Oh, and Obama cut Medicare too by passing Obamacare.

Media Assist for GOP: Media loves Ryan. They think he is an actual serious deficit hawk, and his plan is "bold, courageous, etc".

DEMS:
This budget plan gives tax cuts worth 250k to the wealthy while increasing taxes by 2k on the middle class. Plus, they would eliminate all capital gains and investment taxes. They would also destroy Medicare, cut Pell Grants, Federal Student Loans, Food Stamps, etc. Instead, Obama's plan would raise taxes on the wealthy along with cut in government for a balanced approach. The Romney/Ryan plan is a 10 trillion dollar deficit creator.

Media Assist: None really. Mostly depends on whether we see any amazing Ads. Media has pretty much ignored Obama's plan during most conversations.

Which is why, I need to see what ads Obama comes up with next week. Very important to cut through the Media hype that will start to define Ryan.

 

[Tim-E]

So, do people still think I"m crazy for saying that Obama can replicate his 2008 margins or better?

:lol

2008 is his ceiling.

 

[Aaron Strife]

One of the few things I liked about Meet The Press today was the general argument that this election will truly be a choice between two distinct visions. If Romney wins, the American people will have chosen brutal austerity. If Obama wins, they will have chosen more government.

I think most people who thought Obama would win last week figured it might be a "big" EV win, but overall the board wouldn't be changed too much: dems hold the senate, win a few house seats, and we go back to stagnation. Myself and others who thought Romney would win (last week) argued he could only win a close election - both in terms of the EV and popular vote; likewise the house and senate will probably stay similar. I think we now have a chance at a wave election going one way or the other. If the economy tanks next month as it did in 2008 it won't matter what Ryan has to say about Medicare: dems will be ousted, 2010 style.

But even I admit that with this Ryan budget and the potential of six figure jobs growth in the coming months, Obama has a chance to replicate the 2008 results across the country and dems can re-take the house. If that happens, I hope dems take notes on what happened in 2009/2010 and focus entirely on the economy. No grand energy policy attempts, no grand immigration battle, no revisit to Wall Street reform: the Jobs Act should be #1 on the priority, and if dems take the house they better do something about the filibuster in the senate.

I don't actually think Obama's EV margin will total more than it would have last week - 347-191 looked to be the best case scenario, now it's closer to 380 if he picked up Arizona, Missouri, and Indiana. However I do think Ryan's plan will help solidify states like FL and NC in the blue column if the economy doesn't tank, while moving previously lean/likely Romney states into toss-up territory.

If Democrats do win in a landslide like you suggest, they should let the Bush cuts expire and pass a new bill combining some of the tax reforms in Obama's grand bargain proposal with the tax breaks included in American Jobs Act. Then use the savings to pass a new jobs bill entirely that targets infrastructure, energy, and construction. Throw in the Public Option Act for good measure.

So, do people still think I"m crazy for saying that Obama can replicate his 2008 margins or better?

I think there would have to be a substantial shift in the race for Obama to outperform his 2008 margin, but I could see him winning by that, yeah. He's already close to it in polling (+6 margin on TPM, +7 in 08).

I'm thinking he'll win by 52-47 or something similar.

 

[Averon]

Obama won't touch 2008 numbers simply because Indiana is now out of his grasp.