The more I hear about him the more I think he is literally a crazy person.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread |OT2| This thread title is now under military control
- Thread starter AlteredBeast
- Start date
- Status
This is a good sentence.
Posted this a few days ago, but basically that's whats going to happen. The Demographic advantage that Democrats receive from Latino and Gen Y voters is going to give them an advantage equal or greater than the Southern Strategy.
I've been telling my conservative relatives: this election may very well be the Republicans' last chance to tilt the Supreme Court in their favor. Otherwise, it's gonna be a notably left-leaning court for a generation or two.
That, and when Justices like Scalia and Thomas both can't hold-on any longer due to health reasons ('cause I surely don't see them voluntarily resigning with a Democrat in office), we're going to see some very bitter moments..
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
I still can't believe that Romney actually picked Ryan. I'm still just so fucking speechless, even though the reality of the situation gave him little other choice. But still. Worst candidate, meet worst running mate.
I'm convinced that David Axelrod went back in time and started running Obama's 2012 reelection campaign from 1988, first gently manipulating the Romney family into being the perfect 1%'er foil to the 2012 argument, and just in case, he got in Paul Ryan's head and had him sign off first on everything Bush/Cheney wanted, but ALSO got him to propose the most poor-hating, granny-killing budget ever devised. Seriously.
What's next, we find out Romney/Ryan run a human trafficking ring of NASCAR Dads/small town union whites in Indiana, Missouri, and Texas? When do we find the tapes of Romney and Ryan making fun of southern accents, trailer parks, and country music? Seriously. What else can they have done to be both the perfect villains for liberals and the least-likable heroes for conservatives?
Remember: this Romney campaign has fumbled every single moment. Picking Ryan changes that until Tuesday, when Romney goes back on auto. Can't fucking wait. 320+.
I'm convinced that David Axelrod went back in time and started running Obama's 2012 reelection campaign from 1988, first gently manipulating the Romney family into being the perfect 1%'er foil to the 2012 argument, and just in case, he got in Paul Ryan's head and had him sign off first on everything Bush/Cheney wanted, but ALSO got him to propose the most poor-hating, granny-killing budget ever devised. Seriously.
What's next, we find out Romney/Ryan run a human trafficking ring of NASCAR Dads/small town union whites in Indiana, Missouri, and Texas? When do we find the tapes of Romney and Ryan making fun of southern accents, trailer parks, and country music? Seriously. What else can they have done to be both the perfect villains for liberals and the least-likable heroes for conservatives?
Remember: this Romney campaign has fumbled every single moment. Picking Ryan changes that until Tuesday, when Romney goes back on auto. Can't fucking wait. 320+.
If Obama can win and if Democrats can win again in 2016....... Scalia, Thomas, Kennedy could all get replaced by liberals.
Don't get me all worked up like that.
What...the...hell?
Aaron Strife
Banned
Clinton was also a Southerner in 1992 and governed pretty explicitly as a centrist. Obama's the first president to be elected on a liberal platform since LBJ.
mm. need to find the bathroom.Chumly said:
On the subject of the demographic switch, perhaps the Ryan pick just represents the Republican party going for broke. They're putting in all their chips on the one big last hope they have to win it all and really turn the country a different direction. If you're going to get in one last presidency, make it one you really really want before you have to actually change up your strategy. And now is still the perfect time, since the economy is down and people are still disillusioned.
speculawyer
Member
Land doesn't vote, people do.
I'm sure there's more to it... like "eliminate tax loopholes like charitable deductions....for people making under $100,000 a year".
Mitt absolutely NEEDS Florida to win. Give him every other swing state and he still loses. Obama has been aggressive and capable of controlling the narrative for months, I don't expect that to stop now. Obama will get nasty if he has to. He's not going to let this opening pass him by.
seriously how can anybody look at a map, and predict that romney, or any republican in the next 10-20 years will win the white house?
It's just not going to happen
I don't think the odds are very good at all.
Pffft, well be lucky to get two moderates and one liberal
Obama can't even get moderates appointed as federal judges.
Those replacements would be fought tooth-and-nail, as the GOP knows they'd result in the equivalent of a legal mega-earthquake. But if Dems control the Senate, their fight will be futile in the long run.
Honestly, I wonder if we're going to see violent reactionary incidents/movements as conservatives more and more realize that the deck is stacked to the point where Electoral College victory is nigh-impossible for them. Will they fight for the soul of the party, or against the liberal scourge?
No matter, we'll be witnessing some fascinating events.
Senate plus filibuster is worse than if the electoral map voted by area of red/blue.
PhoenixDark
Banned
I would disagree with Wray's rather simple take on republican domination during the late 60s, 70s, and 80s. The deaths of JFK and RFK, the disaster of LBJ's final years/Vietnam, and the loss of the southern vote doomed democrats moreso than pure demographics. RFK's death robbed the party of its brightest, best star; there's debate over whether he could have won the nomination in 68 over Humphrey, but he no doubt would have been a potent candidate in the following elections.
Look at the democrat candidates of that time: Humphrey, McGovern, Carter, Mondale. That's arguably the worst group of candidates of in modern US history.
Compare that to republicans, who benefited from having two of the most impressive politicians in modern history: Nixon and Reagan. Say what you will about Reagan's policies, but he was one of the most likable, best politicians in US history; who knows what our country would look like if he stayed a democrat. And remember, even Reagan could have lost in 84 if the economy tanked.
Vietnam ruined the democrat party for decades, and led to republicans becoming the national defense/daddy party. And of course losing an entire region of the country (the south) changed the entire electoral map.
-----
Finally, in terms of today the democrat party has two of the best politicians it has had in decades: Obama and Hillary Clinton. They also possess massive demographic benefits. The problems for democrats: money in politics will always favor republicans moreso than democrats, economic downturns, and growing xenophobia. That's not to say that only republicans are xenophobic, but polls show they are far less supportive of immigration than democrats. I don't think this is the last chance for the angry white vote; 2008 certainly started the doomsday clock, but the end date isn't here. Chris Christie isn't a xenophobe or bigot, but I look to him as the perfect candidate for white men fed up with "bullshit."
Look at the democrat candidates of that time: Humphrey, McGovern, Carter, Mondale. That's arguably the worst group of candidates of in modern US history.
Compare that to republicans, who benefited from having two of the most impressive politicians in modern history: Nixon and Reagan. Say what you will about Reagan's policies, but he was one of the most likable, best politicians in US history; who knows what our country would look like if he stayed a democrat. And remember, even Reagan could have lost in 84 if the economy tanked.
Vietnam ruined the democrat party for decades, and led to republicans becoming the national defense/daddy party. And of course losing an entire region of the country (the south) changed the entire electoral map.
-----
Finally, in terms of today the democrat party has two of the best politicians it has had in decades: Obama and Hillary Clinton. They also possess massive demographic benefits. The problems for democrats: money in politics will always favor republicans moreso than democrats, economic downturns, and growing xenophobia. That's not to say that only republicans are xenophobic, but polls show they are far less supportive of immigration than democrats. I don't think this is the last chance for the angry white vote; 2008 certainly started the doomsday clock, but the end date isn't here. Chris Christie isn't a xenophobe or bigot, but I look to him as the perfect candidate for white men fed up with "bullshit."
empty vessel
Member
This analysis is superficially appealing, but it omits business, which organized in the late 60s and 70s to take over the federal government. Vietnam didn't have shit to do with Democratic loss of control. Business interests organized and pumped tons of money into the electoral process. Hence the DNC. The Democratic party moved right in response to funding needs by business interests, not because of the legacy of the Vietnam war.
I don't think Christie could win a national election, he would have to change quite a bit and I am not referring to his weight. He can be downright hostile at times and while NJ found it endearing at first, it looks like they may well be souring on it. He's in the news around here for snapping at a random person at least once a month, if he can't clean up his act he could get torn to shreds on the national stage.
PhoenixDark
Banned
LBJ's final years did have major impact, come on. Young voters felt betrayed by LBJ, especially those that were greatly impacted by JFK. The party ceded all foreign policy credibility to republicans, and that didn't change until this year.
You're right about business, but that still misses the general point about the DNC being in utter shambles and lacking leadership for decades
speculawyer
Member
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/palin-ryan-romney-035538208.html
And you thought Paul Ryan was a bad pick!
"war hero who honorably served our country" . . . he got indicted and pushed out of the military. Palin thinks "24" is a documentary.
West would have been amazing, but he was always just a comedy option.
I looked exactly like this when I read that post.
ClassyPenguin
Banned
this reads like a parody.
And as a Californian, a complete misrepresentation of what is happening here. GDP actually grew because of stimulus spending.
metalslimer
Member
Oh I know, it's just amazing how little the conservative US is becoming in matters in terms of national politics.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
I think you're understating the decades-long effect of the Red Scare, the Cold War, and the pendulum-swing that was the societal reaction to FDR. If you take the long view, we've made a complete circle to where we were from Reconstruction, to the rise of the railroad/oil tycoons, to the beginnings of American imperialism, to muckraking and yellow journalism, right up to WWI. Hard not to see the parallels.
ErasureAcer
Banned
None. The election is over. The map will be the same as 2008 except Indiana. On second thought, Omaha's 1 vote I guess is up for grabs.
North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Florida.
Though you have to use the phrase "in play" very loosely to get there.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Same as the past 3-4 cycles:
Actual Swing States: Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia
Pretend Swing States: Pennsylvania, Missouri, Indiana
Outliers: Colorado, Nevada
When you look at those states and then look which ones Romney is currently polling ahead in (Missouri and Indiana), you'll see the problem. Twelve years and three presidential elections later, it's still about Florida and Ohio. And Romney could realistically lose both.
Holy shit. This is a few days old, but Rep. Steve King said that a child molester could kidnap a 13 year old girl from the play ground, rape her, take her across the border for a forced abortion, and return her to the playground without suffering any legal recourse.
W.T.F.
W.T.F.
If forced to guess, I'd wager that it'll be the same, minus Indiana and North Carolina. I'm a bit iffy on Colorado and Iowa, but think that Obama will pull those off.
The Republicans might have some serious soul-searching ahead of them, especially if they are willing to admit to themselves the map's new realities.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
I say that's true even if they win. Texas, and Louisiana by proxy/sphere-of-influence, Florida, Nevada, Virginia, North Carolina...I suspect those will continue to get bluer. Maybe the GOP makes a play for the rust belt/mid-west with PA, MI, OH, IN, IA, WI, MN over the long run, but I don't think they can.
Watching Texas become a swing state is going to be incredible. So many EVs, so many media markets to sweep with TV ads..
Hmm, I'd disagree. They still have a lot of influence over the media narrative and conservatives aren't doing too bad in Congress (which I'd say is more important than the Presidency). When it comes to Presidential elections though, ya, they won't be very relevant if they keep going down the path they're on.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
If Obama wins Ohio this election I think he locks it for the next few elections assuming the Democrats run someone competent and the Republicans don't suddenly find a showstopper. And I can't really see Minnesota or Illinois going red anytime soon. They might grab Wisconsin though...
It's sad that a chunk of the country will read that and take it as gospel.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
I would like to see what percentage of the country actually cares about what this political retard has to say. I would rather listen to tax advice from a reality tv star than listen to her babble incessantly about her inane talking points.
On the GOP and its shrinking demographics:
I might be the face of the GOP 10-15 years from now. Eventually, people will just have to see that slashing taxes and government spending benefits NOBODY but the mega rich, and helping the mega rich, in turn, doesn't help anyone.
I hope that when Obama wins, he is able to actually do some crazy stuff in his second term. Taxes need to go up, and for 'Murica's sake, I hope he goes full monty and raises them back to '98 levels.
ErasureAcer
Banned
Rob Zerban with another $24,000 Sunday on ActBlue. $35,000 Saturday. That will help I suppose.
I could see her trying to make a run in 2016 if Obama is reelected. I feel like the backlash she took in the 2008 election set something off in her that made her more determined to make it on the political stage.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Nope. She is done. Someone who was in office for only 2 years in one of the least populous states in the union over nearly 10 years prior to the election isn't even going to get a second look. Not to mention some semblance of sanity will return to the party in the next four years.
Agreed. She will tease and spectate but will ultimately stay in punditry where she makes outrageous bank.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Palin has no interest in elected office. She has made it quite clear that she is 100% focused on making as much money as she can while antagonizing the left and establishment republicans. Running for president is a hard job. It's basically two years of pure grind and little free time. Why do that when you can have someone write a book, stamp your name on it, and sell it to a publisher for 1mil every year.
2012 was her last chance imo. 2016 will be full of major players (if Romney loses of course). Jeb Bush, Christie, McDonnell, maybe Rubio, a more seasoned and less medicated Rick Perry, etc. The GOP has a far deeper bench than democrats
2012 was her last chance imo. 2016 will be full of major players (if Romney loses of course). Jeb Bush, Christie, McDonnell, maybe Rubio, a more seasoned and less medicated Rick Perry, etc. The GOP has a far deeper bench than democrats
So apparently Romney thinks that adding Ryan to the ticket, along with his "serious ideas", opens Obama up to greater criticism over medicare. They think Ryan helps with Florida which is ridiculous because if anyone, Rubio would have helped with Florida. Their theory seems to be Ryan budget version of medicare >>>>>>>> ACA version of medicare.
- Status