I see that somebody is moving on from "Democrats are doomed in 2012!" already.
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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread |OT2| This thread title is now under military control
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I see that somebody is moving on from "Democrats are doomed in 2012!" already.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Swing states this cycle:
Minnesota
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Hawaii
Minnesota
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Hawaii
Hobbestetrician
Member
Plus D.C.
Aaron Strife
Banned
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ee08561c-b5c6-45c1-b62b-be0abddcfb85
SurveyUSA in Missouri - Romney leads by one point, 45-44.
Half taken after the Ryan announcement (8/9-8/12).
SurveyUSA in Missouri - Romney leads by one point, 45-44.
Half taken after the Ryan announcement (8/9-8/12).
It's just their strategy of throwing back their closest equivalence to nullify the attack, or have the media go "Both sides are bad with these/both sides accuse each other of the same thing. Who's right? Who knows." Like how Romney treating a dog like shit as an adult is the same as a child tasting dog in a foreign country, or how Romney bullied a kid in high school is just like how Obama pushed a girl this one time. Paul Ryan wants to destroy Medicare and Social Security, well, Obama cut some funds out of Medicare. We want Romney tax returns, they want Obama's college records. Romney is regressive with women and minorities, but women and minorities have faced it the worst in Obama's economy.
On and on it fuckin' goes. A lot of that stuff doesn't work, but I think "Obama cut Medicare" will.
Yup. They scared. But they can do this. Watch how "Obama cut Medicare" will be uttered with every single Romney/Ryan speech, every tv appearance, as many ads as humanly possible, every pundit's diatribe etc. We're gonna see that perfectly oiled machine that is Republican messaging going into overdrive.
titiklabingapat
Member
I'm still in shock Romney picked Ryan. This is all a little...too easy. I don't know anymore lol
Aaron Strife
Banned
October surprise: Papa John's and White Castle lays off every employee, points to an obscure Obamacare provision mandating those companies to close shop the day before 2012 elections.
Youth and minorities stay home.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Pretty obvious the post is made discussing the scenario that Obama wins.
Regardless what happens this year I'd imagine the 2016 dem bench would include Cuomo, Mark Warner, Brian Schweitzer, and Martin O'Malley; if Clinton changes her mind and runs, she'll almost certainly get the nomination.
Do you think she'll run?
ErasureAcer
Banned
lmao.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
I am still questioning it, to be sure, but the more I read and listen to the networks and read articles in pretty even-minded newspapers and blogs, the more I realize that a lot of newsources aren't going to go for the jugular on Ryan and his TERRIBLE budget ideas.
Maybe they will after the honeymoon period is over, but so far, there is much more positivity about the choice than negativity.
Will that result in a big Romney boost? Maybe temporarily, but if they manage to make it last...well, we can all start waving palm leaves at PD.
PhoenixDark
Banned
The problem I have with this is that Romney's camp has shown no ability to control narratives, and haven't played offense since the early weeks of the campaign. If they couldn't sell voters on taxes, Bain, or immigration...how the hell are they going to sell them on Medicare? Picking Ryan may have killed the tax issue, but it will be back eventually - this time through the lens of the Ryan budget which would cut Romney' taxes to less than 1%.
Nytimes already has a critical editorial out.
I think it's normal for the first few days for the media to have "who is Paul Ryan" profiles. Once both campaigns start the serious sprinting to define who he is, you'll see the media becoming more critical of his budget and positions. They've got a fourteen year congressional voting backlog to sift trough.
The tax issue is already cropping up again. It'll come up another time when Mitt releases his other year, so that's not over.
And I really don't know how they're going to sell people on medicare. It seems like they're doing a twofold strategy. They're going to claim Ryan's budget isn't what Romney's doing, and they're going to attack Obama on his "cut" to medicare. Meanwhile Obama will likely hammer them on Ryan's budget. I tend to think Obama will win that battle, because Ryan's budget only sounds good when he describes it, and if he likely won't be doing that if they're not actually going with it.
I also think in a debate Obama will have this issue. All he has to say was that it isn't a cut at all, it's savings. And he can point out that Ryan's budget starts with that exact same baseline, with those exact same savings.
Aaron Strife
Banned
PPP had Obama up 1 last time as well.
Of course, if those undecideds were pushed I'd assume the majority of them would go into Romney's camp, but if Obama nails Romney on the Ryan plan who knows what could happen.
PPP and SurveyUSA both have big Democratic biases -- even worse than Rasmussen's red lean this cycle, if you can believe it. That, plus the margin of error, and you shouldn't take those numbers seriously.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Cute. Then you compare them to the actual results instead of other shit pollsters like Rasmussen and you get this.
Any lean calculated by Silver in that article is relative to the polling average with the assumption that averaging the polls cancels out any house effect those pollsters might have. That doesn't mean anything for their credibility and PPP and SurveyUSA have been incredibly accurate in past cycles, while Rasmussen came out with a poll in 2010 that missed the final margin by over 40 points.
Cute. Then you compare them to the actual results instead of other shit pollsters like Rasmussen and you get this.
Dude, that list is two years old. The one I linked to is from analysis from a few months ago.
It has to be better than going off years old data.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
If I am reading that correctly, that doesn't mean the poll is necessarily inacurate. It's just how it compares to other pollsters that have polled similar locations. Haven't PPP and SurveyUSA been shown to be the most accurate in recent elections?
Aaron Strife
Banned
You should read that analysis then because he actually talks about this:
If you look at the state-by-state projections, PPP and SurveyUSA are always weighted highly when they're the most recent. If he thought the house effect was more important than their record he would account for that.Nate Silver said:
ErasureAcer
Banned
I wasn't laughing at it's accuracy. I was laughing at Romney's dire situation.
You might be right, then. I don't know.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Right, I figured that, just following up on it.
Obama doesn't need Missouri and he's not making a serious play for it, the fact that Romney's barely ahead there is indeed shitty for him.
45-45 is probably Obama's base approval versus the number of people comfortable enough with Romney to let him replace Obama, and the remaining 10% don't like either one or don't care.
Sorry if I'm coming off as kind of dickish by the way.Clevinger said:
It's true that house effect is important but when you hold PPP and SUSA up to actual results they're pretty damn good.
It's not like they're all sunshine and farts for Obama either, especially PPP. Their last poll in Florida only had him up by 1, but I imagine that's changed by now.
Don't worry. You're not at all.
Four_Chamber
Member
I wouldn't ignore that Missouri poll- it shows Akin leading McCaskill by a considerable margin which I think is accurate. If the Missouri presidential race is indeed that close... wow. I would have loved to see the breakdown of the 43% before the VP announcement versus the 57% afterward.
Aaron Strife
Banned
It probably didn't amount to much, really.
I'm really hoping McCaskill can stick Ryan's plan to Akin and drop his numbers. It'd suck to lose that race.
PhoenixDark
Banned
It's rather laughable to believe Ryan's mere presence caused a major shift in polling within less than 48 hours. Missouri has been close for awhile according to RCP, but still leans Romney.
Four_Chamber
Member
Overall, I think history has proven that VP picks do very little in the big scheme of things. All the Ryan pick did is to intensify the magnifying glass on a different part of Romney's awful campaign. His plan with Medicare would have been eventually brought up- this just accelerated its inclusion into the race.
metalslimer
Member
The problem with Ryan's VP choice is that Romney has not had a real plan for fixing the economy and has just been extremely vague whining about job creators, merica, etc. Ryan Plan's is an actual real thing which can be physically tied to him now. So it's not actually Ryan himself that is the big issue as VP. It's his budget which Romney endorsed at one point and picking Ryan says to people that he still endorses him.
War Peaceman
You're a big guy.
On the flipside, I feel that the Romney camp believe that the Ryan plan adds intellectual heft to Romney's loose economic plan. Therefore to pick Ryan delineates a distinct choice between two visions of the USA - Obama's vs. Romney's. Of course, that seems like madness but by this point I'm not sure what else could be done.
Zeus Molecules
illegal immigrants are stealing our air
I agree with this. I'm waiting for a rooservelt typepresident to come in and fix things... Maybe Obama will grow that type of progressive backbone in his second term, though I doubt it.
Paul Ryan: I Gave Romney Several Tax Returns, Will Release Two
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/paul-ryan-i-gave-romney-several-tax-returns
TacticalFox88
Banned
Oh shit! hahahahaha. This campaign. THIS fucking campaign.
War Peaceman
You're a big guy.
Well he can't release more than Romney, that would just provoke more attacks. Romney cannot escape this issue.
jamesinclair
Banned
Its just the POTUS position hes running for, we dont need to know much about him.
I trust that Romney is keeping secrets for our own good.
if it mattered, he would tell us.
Four_Chamber
Member
No surprise, the GOP is saying exactly what we've been saying.
Yup. Imagine the news headlines and attacks if Romney's Veep pick releases more tax returns than he did.
Well, how would it look if his VP released more tax returns than he did? He's running for President for Pete's sake!
:lol Romney's campaign never fails to bring the laughs.
I swear to god. The mental gymnastics. The GOP is so fucked.
ClassyPenguin
Banned
Do he even know the meaning of the words that are coming out of his mouth?
The Librarian
Banned
The Chosen One
Member
It was pretty obvious that Ryan was only going to release two years of tax returns until Romney releases more. But I just find it funny that he readily admitted that he turned over "several" years of returns to Romney's VP vetters. Basically the issue is never going away until there's some kind of equilibrium.
EDIT: Looking at the Romney/Ryan banner ad on this page, their slogan is "America's COMEBACK TEAM". I think they need a better slogan. A comeback team implies that you failed at some point and that you're looking for redemption. Not sure if that's the right message the Romney campaign should be trying to convey...
EDIT: Looking at the Romney/Ryan banner ad on this page, their slogan is "America's COMEBACK TEAM". I think they need a better slogan. A comeback team implies that you failed at some point and that you're looking for redemption. Not sure if that's the right message the Romney campaign should be trying to convey...
This dude has really lost it since getting hit by a car... fuck it, some would say he lost it after The Stand.
Four_Chamber
Member
Christie Vilsack better win that race. If he wins re-election, I will hold his district with the same esteem I hold Bachmann's district.
War Peaceman
You're a big guy.
Do you have a source on this?
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