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[ErasureAcer]

I don't think that we're going to see that because of two races in which republicans are in the lead to take the place of retiring senators (north dakota and wisconsin) Nebraska seems like a loss too.

Warren is the only likely pickup for Democrats.

North Dakota seems to be a toss-up, like Indiana. Which one would think would go red because Romney will carry both but the fact they're toss-ups in red states makes me think the opponent isn't a pushover and thus will win. This is the same logic I'm starting to believe with Warren but with parties/states reversed. Dems +1 out of those 3.

Nebraska is gone for Dems. Maine is gone for Repubs. Net Zero.

Tester can hold his own especially if Gary Johnson is on the ticket in Montana. That's how he won last time with a third party assist. Hold.

If Akin has no money I don't see how he wins. Hold.

Thompson could even the playing field in Wisconsin and probably will. So we're back to net zero.

Then there's Arizona which really hasn't been polled. So who knows there.

Oh yeah, Nevada. That will probably flip too. I really don't see how Democrats lose seats.

 

[Touchdown]

I like how those single polls were enough for RCP to switch those states to 'Toss-Up' while nothing but polls showing Obama up in both Nevada and New Hampshire still warrant 'Toss-Up' status.

you noticed that too. XD It's ok, with Florida and Ohio, Obama won't even need Michigan or Wisconsin.

 

[DasRaven]

Then there's Arizona which really hasn't been polled. So who knows there.

Here's my honest, boots-on-the-ground, feeling about AZ-SEN today against Carmona:
-Flake +5
-Cardon Even

If Akin really stays in and Dems nationalize that race, Carmona can win here.
There are tons of suburban women here to flip if the connections can be made.
But with Mormons at two levels of the ticket, there's a big headwind.

 

[DasRaven]

you noticed that too. XD It's ok, with Florida and Ohio, Obama won't even need Michigan or Wisconsin.

They did this basically as soon as Romney collected the sufficient delegates to win the nomination. They jumped MI, PA, and OH into toss up despite no polling at that time supporting it.
And that's when I stopped watching anything there except the "No Toss Ups" tracker.

 

[Oblivion]

LOL:

"The numbers of jobs we create has nothing to do with the unemployment rate."

 

[Touchdown]

Remember when realclearpolitics had their intrade all messed up, and I think it was Nate Silver who mentioned it in his old blog at the time and realclear then put Obama way back up lol . The guys from realclear are always on Kudlow's right wing radio show on the weekend bashing Obama.

 

[Averon]

you noticed that too. XD It's ok, with Florida and Ohio, Obama won't even need Michigan or Wisconsin.

Florida is far from certain. They did elect Rick Scott, despite him being involved in Medicare fraud. But this is moot since Obama will not lose Michigan.

 

[somedevil]

Florida is far from certain. They did elect Rick Scott, despite him being involved in Medicare fraud. But this is moot since Obama will not lose Michigan.

Yeah that polling firm is really bad. Nate Milton gives them a house effect as leaning Republican by roughly 11 percentage points relative to the overall consensus from there Florida and previous Michigan survery.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/20/aug-20-when-the-polling-gets-weird/#more-33452

 

[makingmusic476]

Question, and maybe I'm going crazy here, but wasn't there an article a few months back about a journalist that sat in on a meeting between a congressmen and a lobbyist, and the congressmen straight up said "how big of a check will you cut me if I do ____"?

If it actually exists, anybody got a link to that?

 

[Oblivion]

Dear sweet merciful Allah, I've witnessed the first sign of the Apocalypse:

So they sit around amongst themselves — I’m not being critical of ‘em; don’t misunderstand my choice of words or tone, and they try to think of ways to persuade other people who agree with them. So Akin goes on TV with Charles Jaco, which is mistake number one, but he goes on with Charles Jaco on local St. Louis TV. And this whole business of a woman’s body shuts down in rape, there’s no evidence for that. But this is the kind of thing that people who do nothing but talk amongst themselves will conjure up, a belief system like that, and they’ll grab on to anything they can to support what their empirical belief is because their ultimate aim is to save life.

Their ultimate aim is to protect the baby no matter what circumstance the conception occurs in. And I think that’s just who the guy is, but he doesn’t know how to explain it. He has no clue how to make his case for it. And so he hangs around people who are like-minded and they’ve devised this belief. He’s not the first guy to say this. I’ve had people tell me that a woman’s body shuts down in rape. There’s no evidence for this. I mean it’s absolutely absurd. This leads to the second problem. This is absurd. That belief that a woman’s body shuts down and the whole notion of “legitimate” “illegitimate” rape, that’s the thing that bothers me about it. That’s just absurd. It’s not intelligent.

Guess who said this.

The answer will blow (rape?) your mind.

 

[Averon]

Interesting takeaway from PPP's VA poll.

Obama's continued success in the state is very much a product of its rapidly changing population. Among voters who have lived in Virginia for less than 20 years Obama leads Romney 62-32. When you narrow it to folks who have come to the state in the last ten years his advantage expands even further to 67-29. Romney leads 51-45 with folks who have been in Virginia for more than 20 years and they make up 68% of the electorate, but the transplants are so heavily Democratic that he leads the state overall.

One effect the newer voters are having on the Virginia electorate is to make it more racially diverse. Obama trails 56-40 with white voters, but with non-whites he's ahead 75-19.

Not much longer before VA is effectively a "blue" state electorally. I don't think NC is that much further behind either since that state is also getting a lot of transplants from outside the state that lean Democratic.

 

[speculawyer]

Dear sweet merciful Allah, I've witnessed the first sign of the Apocalypse:



Guess who said this.

The answer will blow (rape?) your mind.

I think a certain someone got humiliated a few months back and did some homework. (I cheated and looked up who it was.)

 

[RDreamer]

Dear sweet merciful Allah, I've witnessed the first sign of the Apocalypse:



Guess who said this.

The answer will blow (rape?) your mind.

Wow, can't believe I guessed this right. I guess he really does have a certain way of talking, even if he's not quite talking about his usual things.

Anyway, yeah, obviously he's just doing this because he knows it's a losing issue that could hurt Romney. He may be a complete sociopathic scumbag, but he isn't that stupid.

 

[Measley]

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/gop-source-akin-stops-taking-calls-from-party

GOP Sources: Akin Not Taking Calls From Party Officials

The Tea Party has just gone rogue.

 

[speculawyer]

Obama trails 56-40 with white voters, but with non-whites he's ahead 75-19.

White people . . . stop embarrassing me. When did white people become so anti-science? :-(

(Or at least have such a low regard for science that it doesn't affect their voting.)

 

[The Librarian]

That's a completely irrelevant point. Of course his successor would be leading if Kennedy was alive to endorse the person, campaign, etc. But because he is dead the democrat has to win on merit alone - and so far she has shown an inability to connect to voters that agree with her on what, 95% of issues?

It's not a completely irrelevant point. Incumbency matters a lot, and he brought it up.

You've been towing the "it's just one poll, doesn't matter" line for a couple months now lol

lol indeed.

 

[Byakuya769]

It's sad that I could read Oblivion's quote and recognized the diction and speech patterns.

 

[el retorno]

It's sad that I could read Oblivion's quote and recognized the diction and speech patterns.

I read it in his voice after reading the first few lines...

 

[Oblivion]

Good news, guyz. Akin further clarifies:

AKIN: You know, Dr. Willke has just released a statement and part of his letter, I think he just stated it very clearly. He said, of course Akin never used the word legitimate to refer to the rapist, but to false claims like those made in Roe v. Wade and I think that simplifies it….. There isn’t any legitimate rapist…. [I was] making the point that there were people who use false claims, like those that basically created Roe v. Wade.

 

[Jackson50]

North Dakota seems to be a toss-up, like Indiana. Which one would think would go red because Romney will carry both but the fact they're toss-ups in red states makes me think the opponent isn't a pushover and thus will win. This is the same logic I'm starting to believe with Warren but with parties/states reversed. Dems +1 out of those 3.

Nebraska is gone for Dems. Maine is gone for Repubs. Net Zero.

Tester can hold his own especially if Gary Johnson is on the ticket in Montana. That's how he won last time with a third party assist. Hold.

If Akin has no money I don't see how he wins. Hold.

Thompson could even the playing field in Wisconsin and probably will. So we're back to net zero.

Then there's Arizona which really hasn't been polled. So who knows there.

Oh yeah, Nevada. That will probably flip too. I really don't see how Democrats lose seats.

A Panglossian analysis worthy of Aaron Strife. That an opponent is not a pushover does not entail their victory. And similar to AZ, there's been a paucity of polling in those states. Thus, the contests may not even be toss-ups. Your scenario is unlikely because Democrats have to defend more vulnerable seats.

Good news, guyz. Akin further clarifies:

Oh. That explains your statement regarding a female body possessing a mechanism to prevent insemination resulting from a rape.

 

[markatisu]

Wow in the span of like 48hrs Akin will have pretty much caused the GOP to sink like the Titanic lol

 

[Skiptastic]

North Dakota seems to be a toss-up, like Indiana. Which one would think would go red because Romney will carry both but the fact they're toss-ups in red states makes me think the opponent isn't a pushover and thus will win.

I'm hoping Mourdock pulls an Akin and helps Donnelly. Indiana can separate between its presidential vote and its other races. They split Obama and Daniels, and I'm thinking/hoping/praying that we do the same for Romney and Donnelly. He's not a NeoGAF Democrat, I'm sure, but he's a real good Democrat for Indiana.

 

[Jackson50]

Wow in the span of like 48hrs Akin will have pretty much caused the GOP to sink like the Titanic lol

I'm enjoying their repudiation, even if temporary, of his candidacy. That someone is too misogynistic for reactionary Republicans is remarkable.

 

[LilZippa]

The Tea Party has just gone rouge mavericky.

fixed that for ya cause well ya know

Good news, guyz. Akin further clarifies:

AKIN: You know, Dr. Willke has just released a statement and part of his letter, I think he just stated it very clearly. He said, of course Akin never used the word legitimate to refer to the rapist, but to false claims like those made in Roe v. Wade and I think that simplifies it….. There isn’t any legitimate rapist…. [I was] making the point that there were people who use false claims, like those that basically created Roe v. Wade.

Wow masterful turning it back on those who tried to "getcha".

 

[Oblivion]

Oh wow, now let's guess who said this:

"... so virtually nobody other than the Family Research Council and yours truly—even Rush apparently now is out saying he's gotta step aside, so everybody is gang tackling Todd Akin. Now you talk about a forcible situation, you talk about somebody being a victim of kind of forcible assault, that would be Todd Akin."

Spoiler

Okay, this one's a little trickier, so I'll just say it: Bryan Fischer.

 

[RDreamer]

Good news, guyz. Akin further clarifies:

Dude really doesn't have a clue what the controversy was all about.

 

[el retorno]

Oh wow, now let's guess who said this:

Spoiler

Okay, this one's a little trickier, so I'll just say it: Bryan Fischer.

Isn't that the same guy who said SPLC was to blame for the shooting at his office?
And that we should kidnap kids from gay parents?

Guy is a disgusting and hateful human being

Fischer opposes abortion, national health care, environmentalism, gay adoption,[2] and same-sex marriage.[3]

MormonVoices, a group associated with Foundation for Apologetic Information & Research, included Fischer on its Top Ten Anti-Mormon Statements of 2011 list for saying "Mormonism is not an orthodox Christian faith. It just is not ... It's very clear that the Founding Fathers did not intend to preserve automatically religious liberty for non-Christian faiths."[16]

Recently, Fischer has become a supporter of the AIDS denial movement.

In Fischer's view, HIV is a hoax that was concocted by cancer researchers who needed an excuse to keep their grants

You can track his disgusting views
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/category/people/bryan-fischer

The vice president is also speaking at the Value Voters Summit which they sponsor. Why can't the media call them out and not let them hide behind their statements that they don't support these comments?

They might not personally but they pay lip service to them. These groups are the pretty much racist organizations of the early 20th century of this generation (I'm not saying they're racist but at least their views of gays are almost equal)

 

[RDreamer]

This (potentially NSFW?) political cartoon is way too good not to share.

 

[sharbhund]

new WSJ/NBC poll

Romney-44
Obama-48

Registered voters

In this poll, Obama leads Romney among African-Americans 94-0. I'm not sure I've ever seen a politician poll 0 before among any demographic.

 

[el retorno]

In this poll, Obama leads Romney among African-Americans 94-0. I'm not sure I've ever seen a politician poll 0 before among any demographic.

Does that mean they literally couldn't find a black person who said they were voting for romney?

 

[AlteredBeast]

This (potentially NSFW?) political cartoon is way too good not to share.

Wow. Truth.

 

[Jooney]

Dear sweet merciful Allah, I've witnessed the first sign of the Apocalypse:



Guess who said this.

The answer will blow (rape?) your mind.

Had to google it. Thankfully my male body has ways of shutting down this kind of knowledge.

 

[speculawyer]

In this poll, Obama leads Romney among African-Americans 94-0. I'm not sure I've ever seen a politician poll 0 before among any demographic.

Twenty-two percent say Ryan makes them more likely to vote for the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, while 23 percent say he makes them less likely to vote for Romney; 54 percent say the pick doesn’t affect their vote either way.

That margin (-1) is compared with Joe Biden’s in 2008 (+8), Sarah Palin’s in 2008 (+9 percent), John Edwards’ in 2004 (+21), and Joe Lieberman’s in 2000 (+13).

Ryan’s numbers come closest to Dick Cheney’s in 2000 (+2).

Ryan worse than Dick Cheney. Ouch.

 

[jamesinclair]

Fuck all of you for quoting that thing and not one of you saying who it its

 

[el retorno]

Fuck all of you for quoting that thing and not one of you saying who it its

you couldn't pop it into google?

Spoiler

its rush

 

[The Technomancer]

Isn't that the same guy who said SPLC was to blame for the shooting at his office?
And that we should kidnap kids from gay parents?

Guy is a disgusting and hateful human being

It just is not ... It's very clear that the Founding Fathers did not intend to preserve automatically religious liberty for non-Christian faiths."

What a piece of shit.

 

[el retorno]

What a piece of shit.

Seriously watch the rightwingwatch link.

Guy is spewing vile vile stuff. He's spewing, verbally at least, stuff equivalent to some islamic extremists.

Also the GOP made sure to fight the imagined threat of Sharia law in their platform. The line in the constitution about it being the supreme law of the land isn't enough. Didn't a few of the founders admire the Koran and Islamic law?

http://www.salon.com/2012/08/21/gop_embraces_anti_sharia/

In Tampa this week, GOP leaders adopted a plank to their platform supporting a ban on foreign law and aimed at Shariah, the Islamic religious law that many conservatives insist is secretly insinuating itself in the U.S. The platform still has to be approved by the entire convention in a vote next week, but generally, most things approved by the platform committee make it into the final platform.

People are going to look back at this crap (the GOP platform) and look at it in wonder like we do to the salem witch trials.

 

[RDreamer]

I don't get why King is getting a media pass on what he said. Seems no one's mentioning it, yet it was just as bad as Akin's statement.

Wow. Truth.

Knew you'd get a kick out of it.

 

[Suikoguy]

Had to google it. Thankfully my male body has ways of shutting down this kind of knowledge.

I think it will be several weeks before the meme is aborted.

 

[markatisu]

I don't get why King is getting a media pass on what he said. Seems no one's mentioning it, yet it was just as bad as Akin's statement.

Because its King and those of us who have to deal with him know he is a complete horses ass. Its pointless to attack him when he is fighting the the beloved former governors wife in the upcoming election

 

[Jackson50]

Seriously watch the rightwingwatch link.

Guy is spewing vile vile stuff. He's spewing, verbally at least, stuff equivalent to some islamic extremists.

Also the GOP made sure to fight the imagined threat of Sharia law in their platform. The line in the constitution about it being the supreme law of the land isn't enough. Didn't a few of the founders admire the Koran and Islamic law?

http://www.salon.com/2012/08/21/gop_embraces_anti_sharia/


People are going to look back at this crap (the GOP platform) and look at it in wonder like we do to the salem witch trials.

Ignoring the patent absurdity of the Shari'ah bugaboo, that the lamentations originate from a party which routinely attempts to impose religious precepts on everyone is overwhelmingly ironic. Forget fundamentalist Muslims, the dominionist machinations of the religious right are a more pernicious and immediate threat to our liberty.

 

[Hitokage]

So wait, if foreign law is banned, does this mean nullifying all treaties with foreign nations?

For that matter, what happens to English common law?

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Is a woolly mammoth the go-to depiction of the Tea Party in political cartoons? Because it really really should be.

 

[Black Mamba]

Florida

2012 President
54% Romney (R), 40% Obama (D) (chart)

2012 Senate


LOLOL
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/21/fl-2012-president-554-rom_n_1818052.html

Check out the poll, itself. Conservative blogs are going crazy over this.

 

[reilo]

Florida

2012 President
54% Romney (R), 40% Obama (D) (chart)

2012 Senate


LOLOL
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/21/fl-2012-president-554-rom_n_1818052.html

Check out the poll, itself. Conservative blogs are going crazy over this.

Best part:

8/17/12; 1503 likely voters; 2.53% margin of error

 

[speculawyer]

I don't get why King is getting a media pass on what he said. Seems no one's mentioning it, yet it was just as bad as Akin's statement.

Who is King and what is this statement?

 

[Zabka]

Florida

2012 President
54% Romney (R), 40% Obama (D) (chart)

2012 Senate


LOLOL
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/21/fl-2012-president-554-rom_n_1818052.html

Check out the poll, itself. Conservative blogs are going crazy over this.

63% senior citizen respondents

17% of the actual population

 

[Black Mamba]

Best part:

8/17/12; 1503 likely voters; 2.53% margin of error

margin of error is correct.

When you ignore the bias.

53% conservative to 15% liberal.

4% hispanic IN FLORIDA. Over 83% white.

1.33% under the age of 30!
64% over age of 60!

You're allowed to not get the distribution accurate because you can weight. That said, it doesn't mean you can be completely off in every conceivable way. 1% of under 30? They interviews 20 people under age 30 and expect to expound that for the entire group.

EL Oh Fucking EL.

 

[Dr. Pangloss]

A Panglossian analysis worthy of Aaron Strife. That an opponent is not a pushover does not entail their victory. And similar to AZ, there's been a paucity of polling in those states. Thus, the contests may not even be toss-ups. Your scenario is unlikely because Democrats have to defend more vulnerable seats.Oh. That explains your statement regarding a female body possessing a mechanism to prevent insemination resulting from a rape.

Isn't this the best of all possible worlds.

 

[Officerrob]

Florida

2012 President
54% Romney (R), 40% Obama (D) (chart)

2012 Senate


LOLOL
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/21/fl-2012-president-554-rom_n_1818052.html

Check out the poll, itself. Conservative blogs are going crazy over this.

OK seriously, this is a joke poll right?