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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread |OT2| This thread title is now under military control

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A

Averon

Member
Black Mamba said:
margin of error is correct.

When you ignore the bias.

53% conservative to 15% liberal.

4% hispanic IN FLORIDA. Over 83% white.

1.33% under the age of 30!
64% over age of 60!

You're allowed to not get the distribution accurate because you can weight. That said, it doesn't mean you can be completely off in every conceivable way. 1% of under 30? They interviews 20 people under age 30 and expect to expound that for the entire group.

EL Oh Fucking EL.
Click to expand...

Jesus. The internals are all fucked up in that poll.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
ezekial45 said:
I'm gonna sound like an idiot, but what's the deal with this poll?
Click to expand...

the fact that there is no way in hell Romney is actually up 14. Whoever wins will almost certainly win with a 4% or less margin. 14 in insane.

If the poll came out +3 Romney, then Obama should be worried. +14 Romney just means they fucked up badly.

FTR, the same is true if it came out +14 Obama.
 
H

Hobbestetrician

Member
Black Mamba said:
the fact that there is no way in hell Romney is actually up 14. Whoever wins will almost certainly win with a 4% or less margin. 14 in insane.

If the poll came out +3 Romney, then Obama should be worried. +14 Romney just means they fucked up badly.

FTR, the same is true if it came out +14 Obama.
Click to expand...

Same pollster that just released results of Romney up 4 in Michigan.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
ezekial45 said:
I'm gonna sound like an idiot, but what's the deal with this poll?
Click to expand...

Nate Silver already wrote an article about this. This survey weighted its results according to their demographic projections of likely voters, which is relatively standard; however, according to its projection, about 88% of Florida voters will be over 50, so all of the respondents over 50 are weighted to be about ten times as important as the others. Unsurprisingly, this gives Romney a significant advantage. Basically, something is wildly amiss with their likely voter model.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/103331632...-Election?secret_password=1zk6r9l2b6szas5ioh5

Third to last page. Note that they project 1.8% of voters to be 18-30 and 7.6% to be 31-50.
 
F

Four_Chamber

Member
Skiptastic said:
I'm hoping Mourdock pulls an Akin and helps Donnelly. Indiana can separate between its presidential vote and its other races. They split Obama and Daniels, and I'm thinking/hoping/praying that we do the same for Romney and Donnelly. He's not a NeoGAF Democrat, I'm sure, but he's a real good Democrat for Indiana.
Click to expand...

I hear Evan Bayh is going to do some heavy campaigning for Donnelly. I would have loved if Bayh had stayed in the Senate as he would win that seat by 10+ points easily. Hopefully he remains visible on the election front this year.

That Florida poll is absurd by the way.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Ugh, some moron Republican strategist was on Piers Morgan arguing that the majority of the pubilc sides with the GOP on abortion, and that they want to leave such a decision to the individual, their family, and their god, and they don't want government to get in the way.
 
T

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
Oblivion said:
Ugh, some moron Republican strategist was on Piers Morgan arguing that the majority of the pubilc sides with the GOP on abortion, and that they want to leave such a decision to the individual, their family, and their god, and they don't want government to get in the way.
Click to expand...

I don't even what I can't comprehend how do they what the fuck
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Oblivion said:
Ugh, some moron Republican strategist was on Piers Morgan arguing that the majority of the pubilc sides with the GOP on abortion, and that they want to leave such a decision to the individual, their family, and their god, and they don't want government to get in the way.
Click to expand...

And I'm guessing Piers didn't point out the fact that's pure bullshit?
 
C

Chumly

Member
Oblivion said:
Ugh, some moron Republican strategist was on Piers Morgan arguing that the majority of the pubilc sides with the GOP on abortion, and that they want to leave such a decision to the individual, their family, and their god, and they don't want government to get in the way.
Click to expand...
Making laws restricting it is the definition of government getting in the way.....
 
S

SouthernDragon

Member
Oblivion said:
Ugh, some moron Republican strategist was on Piers Morgan arguing that the majority of the pubilc sides with the GOP on abortion, and that they want to leave such a decision to the individual, their family, and their god, and they don't want government to get in the way.
Click to expand...

And if they decide on an abortion, Republican-run government would step out of the way and allow them to seek affordable, discreet, and well-run healthcare that would provide such a service?
 
T

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
SouthernDragon said:
And if they decide on an abortion, Republican-run government would step out of the way and allow them to seek affordable, discreet, and well-run healthcare that would provide such a service?
Click to expand...

I...that's what the Democrats...auuuuuuuuugh! The last two days are breaking my brain. This is probably the most shallow, content-less posting I've ever made on a serious issue because I cannot figure out how to respond to it seriously.
 
E

el retorno

Member
Oblivion said:
Ugh, some moron Republican strategist was on Piers Morgan arguing that the majority of the pubilc sides with the GOP on abortion, and that they want to leave such a decision to the individual, their family, and their god, and they don't want government to get in the way.
Click to expand...

Of course the dems need to stop forcing everyone to get abortions, it should be a private choice between a women and their doctor. I'm glad the GOP is fighting for that.
 
J

Jackson50

Member
Dr. Pangloss said:
Isn't this the best of all possible worlds.
Click to expand...
Hm, yes. Indeed.
Oblivion said:
Ugh, some moron Republican strategist was on Piers Morgan arguing that the majority of the pubilc sides with the GOP on abortion, and that they want to leave such a decision to the individual, their family, and their god, and they don't want government to get in the way.
Click to expand...
tumblr_lospifKtyu1qgdsdb.gif
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Jackson50 said:
A Panglossian analysis worthy of Aaron Strife. That an opponent is not a pushover does not entail their victory. And similar to AZ, there's been a paucity of polling in those states. Thus, the contests may not even be toss-ups. Your scenario is unlikely because Democrats have to defend more vulnerable seats.Oh. That explains your statement regarding a female body possessing a mechanism to prevent insemination resulting from a rape.
Click to expand...
Oh come on man, I'm not that optimistic.

Democrats could win up to 56 seats but i doubt it.
 
C

cousins

Member
Black Mamba said:
margin of error is correct.

When you ignore the bias.

53% conservative to 15% liberal.

4% hispanic IN FLORIDA. Over 83% white.

1.33% under the age of 30!
64% over age of 60!

You're allowed to not get the distribution accurate because you can weight. That said, it doesn't mean you can be completely off in every conceivable way. 1% of under 30? They interviews 20 people under age 30 and expect to expound that for the entire group.

EL Oh Fucking EL.
Click to expand...

People under 30 don't come out to vote consistently. Fuck though, this still scares me
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
cousins said:
People under 30 don't come out to vote consistently. Fuck though, this still scares me
Click to expand...

Of course they don't. They also don't only show up as 1% of the electorate.

The poll weighted the numbers so that 10% of the electorate is under 50. If anywhere near this happens, I will eat my Lakers 2010 Championship hat. Literally. I will do whatever it takes to consume a hat.

This poll is a complete outlier and means nothing.
 
D

Dr. Pangloss

Member
AlteredBeast said:
Another clean, articulate black man.
Click to expand...

What's funny is that Alan Keys was the right's first real response to Obama on a national stage. They didn't even try to stop him early. Instead they thought another black politician could split the vote with him.

Black Mamba said:
Of course they don't. They also don't only show up as 1% of the electorate.

The poll weighted the numbers so that 10% of the electorate is under 50. If anywhere near this happens, I will eat my Lakers 2010 Championship hat. Literally. I will do whatever it takes to consume a hat.

This poll is a complete outlier and means nothing.
Click to expand...

I would count Florida out of reach for Obama. It didn't add 11,000 jobs last month like Ohio; who I will also add has an unemployment rate a full point below the national average at 7.2%. Plus it's in the South and has a strong Republican machine down there. But who needs it when you have Virginia and Ohio in your corner.
 
S

SouthernDragon

Member
Dr. Pangloss said:
What's funny is that Alan Keys was the right's first real response to Obama on a national stage. They didn't even try to stop him early. Instead they thought another black politician could split the vote with him.



I would count Florida out of reach for Obama. It didn't add 11,000 jobs last month like Ohio; who I will also add has an unemployment rate a full point below the national average at 7.2%. Plus it's in the South and has a strong Republican machine down there. But who needs it when you have Virginia and Ohio in your corner.
Click to expand...

Don't count out South Florida and Gainesville (+surrounding areas) bro! Orlando also weighs in.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
cousins said:
People under 30 don't come out to vote consistently. Fuck though, this still scares me
Click to expand...

For the voter demographics to match that likely voter model, about 80% of people under 50 would have to suddenly decide not to vote this year. It's just a bad model -- or, perhaps more likely, it uses too much data from midterm elections, where overrepresentation (seniors) and underrepresentation (PoC, young adults) are much bigger forces than they are in a Presidential election.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
But Obama's down by like, 200 in Florida guys.

Jackson50 said:
You're not, true. You've been a bit more tempered since 2010.
Click to expand...
Yeah if I had to predict something right now, I'd probably say democrats hold even at 53 seats. Swap Nebraska for Maine as the only guaranteed losses, and 6-7 tossups that could split down the middle. Plus Missouri, in light of recent events, is much more secure for Democrats than it was a week ago, when I might have said they would actually lose a seat or two.

And the House will get closer but probably stay Republican. Dems have a large hump to get over in the generic ballot.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
Gonna just go ahead and post my federal-level predictions (and a bonus gut-feeling Issue 2 prediction).

Presidential: Obama +5, 347-191 EV
Senate: Push. (Dems stay at 53, trading Nebraska and Montana for Maine and comedy option Massachusetts.)
House: Democrats gain 20-28 seats, and barely retake the majority-clinching seats if they do.

Ohio Issue 2 (redistricting): passes 56-44, Boehner cries
 
M

Milchjon

Member
vcassano1 said:
So, taxing the rich or wealth redistribution isn't necessary eh?

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2011/02/income-inequality-in-america-chart-graph

I have an even more depressing infographic for the UK but I figured you might be more interested in the US version.
Click to expand...

Reading stuff like this and this, I don't really see how you'll be able to get by without more wealth redistribution in the long run.
There's enough money to go around to keep everyone happy, but it does't look like there will be enough jobs to keep everyone employed, so the money will just keep accumulating at the top.
I'd think it's in everyone's best interest to not let this chasm get too big in order to prevent society from becoming unstable, if you think some decades ahead.

But maybe that's just a naive thought. Marx also made it seem like communism was inevitable.
 
S

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
Oblivion said:
Dear sweet merciful Allah, I've witnessed the first sign of the Apocalypse:



Guess who said this.

The answer will blow (rape?) your mind.
Click to expand...
what do you think he'd have said if this issue had been guaranteeing Akin reelection in a toss up state?
 
A

Agnostic

but believes in Chael
Jooney said:
What's the context of this gif? I've always wondered..
Click to expand...
It's the The Des Moines Register discussion that takes place during the Iowa caucus. I'm a C-Span nut so I could tell by the bookshelf. Someone can search the video if they want to find exactly what he is responding to.


I could be wrong.
Edit: I am right.
 
S

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
Agnostic said:
It's the The Des Moines Register discussion that takes place during the Iowa caucus. I'm a C-Span nut so I could tell by the bookshelf. Someone can search the video if they want to find exactly what he is responding to if they want.


I could be wrong.
Click to expand...

That is some rain man level shit right there.
 
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