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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread |OT2| This thread title is now under military control

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eznark

Banned
Marquette Law does a great job and pretty much nailed 2008 and 2010 in Wisconsin. It's a far more in-depth poll.

That Ryan bump, lol

I think he actually did get a bump. Look at the questions. 58% of those polls think Ryan is either "pretty good" or "excellent." 58% think it reflects favorably on Romney's ability to lead.

If he hadn't picked Ryan, he would be getting slaughtered worse.
 

eznark

Banned
yup, didn't expect that. Thompson is full on cruise

The sampling is even skewed to democrats (44% to 43%) which to me is interesting considering most pollster have expected the GOP to turn out better in Wisconsin based on the recall momentum and Tommy/Ryan.

Thompson getting 50% already is huge. Only 7% undecided. Baldwin has only 32% favorability rating. Ouch.
 

gcubed

Member
The sampling is even skewed to democrats (44% to 43%) which to me is interesting considering most pollster have expected the GOP to turn out better in Wisconsin based on the recall momentum and Tommy/Ryan.

Thompson getting 50% already is huge. Only 7% undecided. Baldwin has only 32% favorability rating. Ouch.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/MLSP10_Methodology.pdf

there is the breakdown of the methodology. Marquette needs to do a better job of hiding their pdf's before their reveal.

Weighted - D/R is 43/43
 

eznark

Banned
That's the same poll group that called Scott winning handily when dems were claiming it would be close

Nailed the Prosser election, the state recall elections and the 08 presidential election (I believe) too. They are definitely solid.

Someone from MUL usually does the interview rounds following the release, I look forward to hearing their sampling decisions.
 

demon

I don't mean to alarm you but you have dogs on your face
The minute I heard Baldwin was going to run for Senate I thought to myself, "not gonna win". I just felt it. Looks like I was right...
 
I was just thinking . . . the GOP is really getting boxed in. They want to run on this "Obama is spending too much, we need to cut the deficit thing".

But where is the most money spent by government? Old people. Social security, Medicare, vet benefits, etc. Old people are the GOP's biggest demographic. Nearly their only demographic. So if they want to actually cut government, they need to hack the benefits of the only demographic that votes for them. Good luck with that!




BTW . . . Paul Ryan qualifies for a 20% tax-credit on his historic house? Wow . . . that sounds like the ultimate in subsidies for rich people.

W
hich, among other things, means that Paul Ryan, who lies awake at night worrying that The Deficit will come and eat our grandchildren, lives in a house overseen by the National Park Service, which means that he qualifies for a 20-percent investment tax credit for the house he lives in.

http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/paul-ryan-romney-vp-pick-11562917
 

RDreamer

Member
Wow, Ryan is refusing to say abortions should be available to women who are raped

QUESTION: Should abortions to be available to women who are raped?

RYAN: Well, look, I’m proud of my pro-life record. And I stand by my pro-life record in Congress. It’s something I’m proud of. But Mitt Romney is the top of the ticket and Mitt Romney will be president and he will set the policy of the Romney administration.

Also, Romney won't go into details at a fundraiser because members of the media are around

WASHINGTON -- Mitt Romney started to lay out his energy plan at a Tuesday event, but because there were reporters in the room, he decided against doing so.

During a Houston fundraiser, Romney told a room of about 125 donors that he planned to unveil his comprehensive energy plan this week. He said his proposal will specifically relate to fossil-based fuels. But then, he said no more.

"I know that we have members of the media here right now, so I’m not going to go through that in great detail," Romney said, according to a pool report from the event.

Romney did say that the "intent" of his plan will be similar to what Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) has proposed in his energy plan.

"That is, to fully take advantage of our energy resources," he said. "I have a different approach I think, generally, to the role of government as it relates to energy, as well as other aspects of our economy. And it flows from a growing perspective I have throughout my life and, frankly, during this campaign about the power of individuals as opposed to government, individuals pursuing their interests and dreams."

Among those onstage with Romney at the event: Portman, Texas Republican Senate nominee Ted Cruz, Texas Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and billionaire oil executive Harold Hamm.
 

eznark

Banned
yeah, but i think they adjust the weighting after the poll, but it looks like they are close to their expecteds.

Yeah, looking forward to why they think it'll be even turnout.

Also, this is really great news for the democrats in my opinion. Thompson was always going to win, but Baldwin being so far behind a Wisconsin icon essentially allows them to stop putting any money into that race and focus on McCaskill and other.
 

Gruco

Banned
Oh, and how the fuck is The Passage of Power a left leaning book?
Are they making an joke about the whole "reality has a left leaning bias" thing?

I'm seriously confused.
I did a double take at that one too. Eznark's interpretation is a possibility, or maybe it's just being purchased by the same people as are getting Stiglitz, Marrow, etc.

And to emphasize this, everyone should read both Passage of Power as well as Master of the Senate. Power Broker too. Incredible research and writing, fascinating storytelling, and will give you a depth of understanding about political lessons of the past still applicable today. Almost impossible to overstate how good Caro's stuff is.
 

KingGondo

Banned
Could anyone link me to an article about the mechanics of repealing the ACA if Romney is elected? I'm in an argument with a coworker who seems to think that it'll be repealed almost immediately and with almost no resistance.

I seem to remember some articles on this right after the SCOTUS decision.
 

Loudninja

Member
Arizona Law Author Wins Harsher Immigration Plank For GOP Platform
Kris Kobach, the author of Arizona's controversial immigration law, pushed the Republican platform committee to add tougher language on immigration to the party's platform in Tampa on Tuesday. A draft of the platform had left out language from the 2008 platform but Kobach convinced the committee to add the language back in.
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/kobach-wins-harsher-immigration-plank-for-gop-platform
 

DasRaven

Member
Could anyone link me to an article about the mechanics of repealing the ACA if Romney is elected? I'm in an argument with a coworker who seems to think that it'll be repealed almost immediately and with almost no resistance.

I seem to remember some articles on this right after the SCOTUS decision.


1. House passes (again) a repeal
2. Senate probably passes a repeal
3. President "Enough Working Digits" Romney signs the repeal
4. POOF, ObamaCare is no longer the law.
5. Medicare D doughnut hole reopens, lifetime limits return, rescission returns, medical loss ratio limits lifted, and so on.
 

KingGondo

Banned
To be fair Romney is releasing his energy plan next week and didn't want the media leaking details early
Sneak preview from my sources inside the Romney campaign:
1) Drill baby, drill!
2) You can't put a windmill on top of a car!
3) If climate change is real, then why did it snow at my Aspen mansion this year?
 

KingGondo

Banned
1. House passes (again) a repeal
2. Senate probably passes a repeal
3. President "Enough Working Digits" Romney signs the repeal
4. POOF, ObamaCare is no longer the law.
5. Medicare D doughnut hole reopens, lifetime limits return, rescission returns, medical loss ratio limits lifted, and so on.
So it's dependent upon 1) Romney winning and 2) Republicans re-taking the Senate?

Any other barriers that Dems could put up?
 

DasRaven

Member
To be fair Romney is releasing his energy plan next week and didn't want the media leaking details early

Here's the leak:
1. Drill Baby Drill
2. Frack Baby Frack
3. Apologize to BP
4. Eliminate wind/solar/ethanol energy subsidies
5. Increase subsidies to struggling oil companies
6. American Prosperity.
 

DasRaven

Member
So it's dependent upon 1) Romney winning and 2) Republicans re-taking the Senate?

Any other barriers that Dems could put up?

Not really, because every expects that with ANY GOP Senate majority (or 50 seats + VP Ryan), Majority Leader McConnell would move to eliminate the filibuster.
This would make the Senate a majoritarian body, like the House, until at least the next Congressional session.
 

Jooney

Member
Not really, because every expects that with ANY Senate majority, Majority Leader McConnell would move to eliminate the filibuster making the Senate a majoritarian body, like the House until the next Congressional session.

Even without the filibuster, I hear that Repubs could repeat it in the senate via reconciliation.
 

Chichikov

Member
To be fair Romney is releasing his energy plan next week and didn't want the media leaking details early
It's going to be seven pages of nothing but "SOLYNDRA!!!"

Not really, because every expects that with ANY GOP Senate majority (or 50 seats + VP Ryan), Majority Leader McConnell would move to eliminate the filibuster.
This would make the Senate a majoritarian body, like the House, until at least the next Congressional session.
And people say nothing good can come out of a GOP win in November.
 
Even without the filibuster, I hear that Repubs could repeat it in the senate via reconciliation.

But Reconcilliation would have to lower the deficite or be neutral, and the whole of the ACA isn't. I guess the could gut the whole thing and just leave the cuts that they keep telling us they will/won't keep.
 
Has Romney or any Republican stated what ACA would be replaced with?

No.
-No details on what he'd replace the ACA with
-No details on his tax plan
-No details on what he would do with Afghanistan
-No details on his budget
-Won't release tax returns


He is trying to run a very vague campaign in order not to be criticized about anything. It is the "Vote for me, I'm not Obama" campaign. Even when pushed to take a stand on hot news topic, he just says he does not agree but does not give his own position:
-"That's not the language I'd use" (in response to Rush's Sandra Fluke slut rant.)
-""As I said yesterday, Todd Akin's comments were offensive and wrong and he should very seriously consider what course would be in the best ..." (well what is your position?)
 

Jooney

Member
Guys, Romney will repeal the ACA with common sense solutions that empower you with choice as wells as gets government out of the way and leaves the health decisions between you and your doctor.

How much more specific do you want him to get?
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Guys, Romney will repeal the ACA with common sense solutions that empower you with choice as wells as gets government out of the way and leaves the health decisions between you and your doctor.

How much more specific do you want him to get?

Maybe something that isn't all bullshit speak.
 

Mike M

Nick N
Only if it doesn't have a negative effect on the deficit, if I remember right. So no, they can't.
I believe they can still pass something that raises the defecit, but it's limited to 10 years before it expires or something (I.e. the tax cuts)
 

codhand

Member
Here's the leak:
1. Drill Baby Drill
2. Frack Baby Frack
3. Apologize to BP
4. Eliminate wind/solar/ethanol energy subsidies
5. Increase subsidies to struggling oil companies
6. American Prosperity.

lol nice, I'd add in a quick stop by Solyndra for the lulz

No.
-No details on what he'd replace the ACA with
-No details on his tax plan
-No details on what he would do with Afghanistan
-No details on his budget
-Won't release tax returns

That's not gonna pass the mustard.

I am up to three Romney-bumper-sticker citings. Saw another at lunch followed by one that read:

"Don't Spread My Wealth
Spread My Work Ethic"
 

Diablos

Member
It's weird that Thompson is +10 while Obama and Biden are still up by 6 over Romney. How can anyone who would vote Obama see Thompson as anything good for their state? :\
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I believe they can still pass something that raises the defecit, but it's limited to 10 years before it expires or something (I.e. the tax cuts)

So if they wanted to do it that way, they would need to vote on a repeal every 10 years. That would certainly be ballsy, but I doubt they would do that. It would make it too easy to re-implement.
 
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