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[Hobbestetrician]

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releas...nts-romney-win-university-colorado-study-says

Model that has predicted every election since 1980 correct says Romney-320, Obama-218. Find it hard to believe that Minnesota and Pennsylvania turn red, let alone all the swing states.

 

[TacticalFox88]

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releas...nts-romney-win-university-colorado-study-says

Model that has predicted every election since 1980 correct says Romney-320, Obama-218. Find it hard to believe that Minnesota and Pennsylvania turn red, let alone all the swing states.

There's a first time for everything. She's going to be dead wrong come November, sorry to say

 

[jamesinclair]

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releas...nts-romney-win-university-colorado-study-says

Model that has predicted every election since 1980 correct says Romney-320, Obama-218. Find it hard to believe that Minnesota and Pennsylvania turn red, let alone all the swing states.

Their results show that “the apparent advantage of being a Democratic candidate and holding the White House disappears when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 percent,” Berry said. The results indicate, according to Bickers, “that the incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states.”

I think shes maybe missing the part where most people still agree that the high unemployment was caused by Bush.

 

[SpeedySwaf]

It also used to be that whoever won South Carolina would be the GOP nominee, but we saw how well that turned out.

 

[CharlieDigital]

http://www.examiner.com/article/gop-official-says-god-chooses-to-bless-raped-women-with-pregnancy

Oh.

my.

fucking.


GOD!

*bangs head on desk*

I mean it's sad and fucking insane, but at the same time somewhat funny because I thought women could not get pregnant from legitimate rape.

Who am I kidding, it's just fucking sad and insane

Why can't we keep Jesus out of our politics?

 

[Snake]

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releas...nts-romney-win-university-colorado-study-says

Model that has predicted every election since 1980 correct says Romney-320, Obama-218. Find it hard to believe that Minnesota and Pennsylvania turn red, let alone all the swing states.

That 320-218 number is only relevant to the extent that the model's "100% accuracy" comes from a firm prediction this far away from election day (rather than the day before the election). And the article says that these numbers will be updated as we get closer to Nov. 6, so no, the forecast as of today is not very useful.

 

[Plinko]

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releas...nts-romney-win-university-colorado-study-says

Model that has predicted every election since 1980 correct says Romney-320, Obama-218. Find it hard to believe that Minnesota and Pennsylvania turn red, let alone all the swing states.

And South Carolina predicted the GOP contender every election.

 

[Hitokage]

Negative campaign = Democrats actually fighting back and not laying down and take it from the GOP.

Class warfare = Lower classes fighting back, pointing out the problem, and not letting the wealthy take advantage of them.

 

[War Peaceman]

And South Carolina predicted the GOP contender every election.

But, no black President has ever been reelected.

 

[Averon]

For Romney to get 320 EV, he'd have to win pretty much every swing state as well as pick off some blue states. I find that HIGHlY unlikely.

 

[Effect]

This Paul Ryan crap of him saying Romney is at the top of the ticket is really bothering me. No one in the media is calling him out on that. He's running to be Vice President. If Romney wins he could be bedridden or killed the very next day making Ryan president. That's why the VP slot is so damn important. You're the damn back up if something unfortunate happens and it has happen in the past. The beliefs of the VP matter a LOT. He's one spot removed from pushing his or her own agenda. Knowing where they stand and what they believe is extremely important. As important as what the top of the ticket believes and stands for. Just a little push back on that excuse he's trying to pedal would be nice.

 

[Clevinger]

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releas...nts-romney-win-university-colorado-study-says

Model that has predicted every election since 1980 correct says Romney-320, Obama-218. Find it hard to believe that Minnesota and Pennsylvania turn red, let alone all the swing states.

Huh. So with that, Romney would likely get a supermajority. Fun.

 

[CharlieDigital]

This Paul Ryan crap of him saying Romney is at the top of the ticket is really bothering me. No one in the media is calling him out on that. He's running to be Vice President. If Romney wins he could be bedridden or killed the very next day making Ryan president. That's why the VP slot is so damn important. You're the damn back up if something unfortunate happens. The beliefs of the VP matter a LOT. He's one spot removed from pushing his or her own agenda. Knowing where they stand and what they believe is extremely important. As important as what the top of the ticket believes and stands for.

Yeah, but by that same train of thought, I would much rather have Hillary (or Huntsman!) on the Dem ticket.

 

[Particle Physicist]

For Romney to get 320 EV, he'd have to win pretty much every swing state as well as pick off some blue states. I find that HIGHlY unlikely.

The model is putting big stress on economic factors, but what they are most likely missing is the Romney factor. It's the reason why despite the economy, Obama is currently polling ahead of Romney in so many states right now.

 

[codhand]

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releas...nts-romney-win-university-colorado-study-says

Model that has predicted every election since 1980 correct says Romney-320, Obama-218. Find it hard to believe that Minnesota and Pennsylvania turn red, let alone all the swing states.

 

[speculawyer]

edit: Rick Warren just cancelled his presidential town hall thing. He says this election is too negative, the most negative he's ever seen, and gosh darn it there's not enough serious people talking civilly about serious civil things.

What would be the point considering that there are no Christians in the race. ;-)

 

[Effect]

Negative campaign = Democrats actually fighting back and not laying down and take it from the GOP.

Does seem that way. Which is why I want Dems to keep it up and be more forceful. It throws the republicans off. No need to make things up. Just be more assertive and keep calling out the lies, the stupid, and the crazy and respond with the truth and proof.

 

[B-Dubs]

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releas...nts-romney-win-university-colorado-study-says

Model that has predicted every election since 1980 correct says Romney-320, Obama-218. Find it hard to believe that Minnesota and Pennsylvania turn red, let alone all the swing states.

Somehow I don't think they are taking the candidates themselves into account. Seriously, if the election were held today the president would win so shit would have to go really bad for this to come true.

 

[speculawyer]

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releas...nts-romney-win-university-colorado-study-says

Model that has predicted every election since 1980 correct says Romney-320, Obama-218. Find it hard to believe that Minnesota and Pennsylvania turn red, let alone all the swing states.

LOL. Yeah, that's what happens when you do projections base purely on a limited set of numbers. Clearly the economic conditions of today are different. Yeah, the economy sucks but it only sorta sucks. It sucked real bad at the end of the Bush administration and Romney's plans are to do more Bush policies. The voters know that.


You can also look at that and realize how bad the GOP is these days. They should be walking all over Obama but the can't because they nominated a boring rich white guy that flip-flops on almost everything and wants to give himself huge tax cuts despite already only paying 13%.

 

[CharlieDigital]

It sucked real bad at the end of the Bush administration and Romney's plans are to do more Bush policies. The voters know that

You know, I hadn't thought of it with this perspective. I'm surprised that this angle hasn't been pushed more by the Dems.

 

[codhand]

Maybe they could get that Soccer predicting Octopus to guess the outcome.

Dang nevermind*

 

[BotoxAgent]

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releas...nts-romney-win-university-colorado-study-says

Model that has predicted every election since 1980 correct says Romney-320, Obama-218. Find it hard to believe that Minnesota and Pennsylvania turn red, let alone all the swing states.

Dick Morris redeemed!!!

 

[CHEEZMO™]

Maybe they could get that Soccer predicting Octopus to guess the outcome.

St Paul died

 

[thefro]

You know, I hadn't thought of it with this perspective. I'm surprised that this angle hasn't been pushed more by the Dems.

That's why Obama's campaign slogan is "Forward".

 

[Byakuya769]

What would be the point considering that there are no Christians in the race. ;-)

That's what it is. He knows that his candidate of choice has some beliefs that had he been a democrat, he would have had pleasure at asking about. Meanwhile, the pinko-fascist-gay lover-muslim "claims" to be Christian.

 

[Zeus Molecules]

LOL. Yeah, that's what happens when you do projections base purely on a limited set of numbers. Clearly the economic conditions of today are different. Yeah, the economy sucks but it only sorta sucks. It sucked real bad at the end of the Bush administration and Romney's plans are to do more Bush policies. The voters know that.


You can also look at that and realize how bad the GOP is these days. They should be walking all over Obama but the can't because they nominated a boring rich white guy that flip-flops on almost everything and wants to give himself huge tax cuts despite already only paying 13%.

Basically the republicans are more of a fringe idea party than they would like to admit. If they had been able to at least appear to be a more moderate party they would ironically be able to pass all their gonzo social/economic policies easier.

The Dems are being smart they are going to point to the republicans policies and their candidates and ask voters to make a decision about the future while at the same time throwing the congress under the bus.

 

[Hobbestetrician]

I certainly don't agree with that analysis as Obama's floor is much higher than 218 (but then again I do think his floor is over 270), just posted it to see the reaction. Looking solely at economic numbers only gets you so far since you can't factor in Romney's Romneyness.

Last edited by codhand; Today at 05:27 PM. Reason: RIP Paul The Octopus 2008-2010

My favorite edit ever.

 

[tranciful]

I hate peoples obsession with "serious campaigning" and non-personal attacks. I don't see Romney or Obama calling each other idiots. I see them attacking each other for perceived faults that could effect their ability to do the job.

The attack on Romney about the man's wife dying has health care policy implications, the attack on his bain record have policy implications, same with his taxes.

The attack on Obama saying "you didn't build that" be it a lie, distortion or whatever has policy implications.

They're not saying the other is ugly or not man enough. Every damn election I hear the same thing, Its too mean, politicians suck. Grow up and read a history book. This stuff has a history in more "serious times"

Political disagreements, especially in campaigns and in presidential campagins (in comparision with parlementary elections) were never something that people just had tea over. That stuff comes after elections when actual policy is debated.

The attack on Romney about a man's wife dying was not from the Obama campaign. Obama's leaving the unfair attacks to his supporting super pacs, while Romney is using his own campaign in addition to the super pacs.

 

[Measley]

http://www.examiner.com/article/gop-official-says-god-chooses-to-bless-raped-women-with-pregnancy

Oh.

my.

fucking.


GOD!



*bangs head on desk*

Those facebook comments give me hope.

 

[CharlieDigital]

Those facebook comments give me hope.

 

[tranciful]

Conservatives would use the same image to simply argue that muslims are baby killers in addition to being terrorists trying to take over america.

 

[Chichikov]

But Jews know how to take a screenshot without their mouse cursor.

Spoiler

I don't really think arguing about whose god is better is what the abortion debate needs.

 

[Manmademan]

But Jews know how to take a screenshot without their mouse cursor.

Spoiler

I don't really think arguing about whose god is better is what the abortion debate needs.

Not necessarily a god argument.

"Real Americans" have been demonizing muslims (though usually referring to Arabs specifically) on a cultural basis since 9-11.

 

[Jackson50]

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releas...nts-romney-win-university-colorado-study-says

Model that has predicted every election since 1980 correct says Romney-320, Obama-218. Find it hard to believe that Minnesota and Pennsylvania turn red, let alone all the swing states.

The success rate of the model strikes me as slightly deceptive. First, they fail to include a margin of error which would truly evince the accuracy of their model. Additionally, I suspect they've made revisions to their model. Postdictive fitting is a legitimate criticism of many forecasts which employ electoral fundamentals. Many analysts mine the data absent a substantive purpose to produce the best fit. Patently, this risks overfitting the data which can subsequently produce aberrant predictions; Nate Silver has previously commentated on this habit and the danger of mining for economic variables. Moreover, they predicate their model on a nominal number of data and an array of causal variables. If I had to guess, their model's been overfitted to hell and back. And it's experiencing a correction. We've reached the juncture where polls are quite predictive. And nothing portends an outcome remotely similar to their model.

That 320-218 number is only relevant to the extent that the model's "100% accuracy" comes from a firm prediction this far away from election day (rather than the day before the election). And the article says that these numbers will be updated as we get closer to Nov. 6, so no, the forecast as of today is not very useful.

It's based on fundamentals, though. Those should not change substantially before the election.

 

[CharlieDigital]

Conservatives would use the same image to simply argue that muslims are baby killers in addition to being terrorists trying to take over america.

That's true; I always forget to put my Conserva-lenses on.

 

[pigeon]

The success rate of the model strikes me as slightly deceptive. First, they fail to include a margin of error which would truly evince the accuracy of their model. Additionally, I suspect they've made revisions to their model. Postdictive fitting is a legitimate criticism of many forecasts which employ electoral fundamentals. Many analysts mine the data absent a substantive purpose to produce the best fit. Patently, this risks overfitting the data which can subsequently produce aberrant predictions; Nate Silver has previously commentated on this habit and the danger of mining for economic variables.

It's worth noting that 1980 is only eight elections, and that most economic and polling data dates back to at least the sixties -- which means that what they really mean is that they have a 50% success rate for the elections we have data for (or they'd mention more elections).

 

[Hobbestetrician]

It's worth noting that 1980 is only eight elections, and that most economic and polling data dates back to at least the sixties -- which means that what they really mean is that they have a 50% success rate for the elections we have data for (or they'd mention more elections).

And it's not as if getting '84, '88, or '96 right is some kind of accomplishment.

 

[The Chosen One]

Poligaf was moving too quickly and I've been too busy to post during the circus the last couple of days.

But this Todd Akins dust-up just reaffirms how terrible a pick Paul Ryan was for Romney. By picking Paul Ryan, Romney set his anchor in the far right of his party. So now every single time an extreme right wing position surfaces in the news, Romney must not only denounce the external situation, but he also has to play defense on ticket because Ryan has relations with almost every single extreme right position except birtherism. Thankfully Trump already has that covered for him...

 

[Oblivion]

Republicans plan to attack Obama's "You didn't build that" quote by having convention in stadium built by tax payers dollars:

Republicans will celebrate "We Built It" at next week's convention at a lovely arena called the Tampa Bay Times Forum. Who built that? Well, as it turns out, the facility cost $139 million, 62% of which was financed by taxpayers. A Marquette University study (pdf) found that the facility "was financed by $66.8 million in revenue bonds from the stadium authority [and] $28.8 million in revenue bonds from the state," while private sources funded roughly a third of the costs.

In other words, Republicans hope to embarrass President Obama, who said public institutions and government investments help create a society in which the private sector thrives, and they'll prove their point by exclaiming "We Built It" in an arena largely financed by taxpayers.

Oops.

CharlieDigital;41309910]

Wait, they're allowed to do that?

 

[NihonTiger90]

Here's what that 320-218 map roughly looks like:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=sUb

 

[PhoenixDark]

Here's what that 320-218 map roughly looks like:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=sUb

That looks believable to me, although I do believe Obama will win PA and maybe Ohio. He could win VA also and still lose according to this

 

[ezekial45]

That looks believable to me, although I do believe Obama will win PA and maybe Ohio. He could win VA also and still lose according to this

Shit would have to go REALLY wrong for it to look like that.

 

[Al-ibn Kermit]

Wait, they're allowed to do that?

The fetus doesn't get it's soul until 4 months.

 

[Marvie_3]

Here's what that 320-218 map roughly looks like:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=sUb

No way in hell this happens. :lol

 

[speculawyer]

That looks believable to me, although I do believe Obama will win PA and maybe Ohio. He could win VA also and still lose according to this

Minnesota? Really? When was the last time they voted Republican?

 

[Hobbestetrician]

That looks believable to me, although I do believe Obama will win PA and maybe Ohio. He could win VA also and still lose according to this

If he wins PA, OH, and VA he sure as hell is winning MN.

 

[el retorno]

If he wins PA, OH, and VA he sure as hell is winning MN.

IDK what PD was talking about if he wins those three, he wins. It gets him to 270.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Minnesota? Really? When was the last time they voted Republican?

True. But give MN, NH, VA, and PA to Obama and Romney still wins.

 

[Marvie_3]

Minnesota? Really? When was the last time they voted Republican?

Nixon in '72

 

[bananas]

What if this happens, guys?

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=sUF