• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread |OT2| This thread title is now under military control

Status
Not open for further replies.
Um, no. Here's what's going on: Rasmussen leans reliably Republican. If Rasmussen finds a Republican candidate ahead by a couple of points, or within the margin of error, take it with a grain of salt. But if Rasmussen can't manipulate their polling method to get the Republican candidate ahead, that means the Democratic candidate really is ahead. Hence the "hahahaha."

As eznark noted, Rasmussen pushes the establishment Republican narrative--this does not necessarily mean they will always overstate Republican votes. It *does* mean their polls, taken on their own, are pretty much always useless.
 

eznark

Banned
As eznark noted, Rasmussen pushes the establishment Republican narrative--this does not necessarily mean they will always overstate Republican votes. It *does* mean their polls, taken on their own, are pretty much always useless.

If a guy manipulates his numbers, those numbers are now and forever will be useless. Regardless of how he has leaned in the past, it's clear that he uses his polling data to influence the narrative, which literally means they should always be ignored by serious individuals.
 

codhand

Member
Having a cordial email debate with a coworker, and he said:

Yeah. Besides the fact that I'm pretty sure that by "successful" he means "makes money," anyone care to help me refute him?

Fuck him, he's a lost cause, tell him to buy lube and enjoy four more years of socialism, followed by "In ya face!" delivered in a Dave Chappelle imitating Rick James voice.*

Tell him your debate wouldn't even be possible without Al Gore.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
If a guy manipulates his numbers, those numbers are now and forever will be useless. Regardless of how he has leaned in the past, it's clear that he uses his polling data to influence the narrative, which literally means they should always be ignored by serious individuals.

Pretty much. As funny as those numbers are, and they are pretty funny, I won't buy this turn around until we see someone else's numbers.
 
Rasmussen agrees with my worldview so now I find him credible.

Yeah, especially since a bunch of people suggested their numbers be banned.

I wouldn't be surprised if they tilted the numbers to try to push him out or to create a big 'come-back' narrative. I'll wait for other polls before drawing conclusions.
 

Brinbe

Member
New Morning Call/Muhlenberg Poll has Bams up 9 on Romney in PA (49-40).
The first poll of Pennsylvania voters since Mitt Romney made Paul Ryan his running mate found the pick did nothing to move the race.

President Barack Obama maintains his lead in the lean-blue state with 49 percent support to Romney's 40 percent among likely voters, according to a The Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll conducted this week.


In other recent statewide polls Obama's lead has ranged from 12 points to six points, but he's consistently been ahead.

Notably, Obama maintains his lead despite weak job approval -- 47 percent of voters disapprove of the job he's doing in the White House, compared to 43 percent who do.

"Nine points is a very good place to be going in to the conventions," said Chris Borick, Muhlenberg College pollster. "And this comes despite very mediocre reviews of his performance among likely voters and personal favorability numbers that aren't as strong as they used to be. Pennsylvania voters are by no means thrilled with what they see from President Obama, but they are unimpressed with the alternative, which is Mitt Romney."

"Romney's favorability is fairly dismal," Borick added.

Nearly half of likely voters surveyed, 48 percent, have an overall favorable impression of Obama, while just 37 percent do of Romney. And nearly half, 49 percent, have a negative view of the former Massachusetts governor.

Meanwhile, Romney's running mate doesn't fare much better. Around one-third of likely voters have a favorable view and one-third an unfavorable opinion of Ryan. A quarter of those surveyed are neutral or unsure about the GOP vice president pick.

Ryan is most well known for authoring a plan as chairman of the House Budget committee to revamp Medicare so that future retirees could choose to receive a stipend from the government to purchase private insurance over traditional Medicare. He and Republicans say it's the best way to ensure Medicare remains solvent. Democrats have vilified the plan as the end of Medicare.

When asked who they trust more to handle Medicare, the popular entitlement program for the elderly and disabled, likely voters in Pennsylvania overwhelmingly said Obama over Romney, 47 percent to 34 percent.

The poll of 422 likely voters was conducted Monday Aug. 20 through Wednesday Aug. 22 and has a margin of error of +/- 5 percent.
 

Clevinger

Member
i had that typed up, but its too late for him to be replaced... i guess he can drop out with the sarah palin party candidate being a write in?

He can drop out, they just have to get the courts involved or something like that. Plus, Republicans would have to pay for the ballot costs, I believe.
 

eznark

Banned
Pretty much. As funny as those numbers are, and they are pretty funny, I won't buy this turn around until we see someone else's numbers.

I buy the numbers 100% in this case to be honest, but it'll be what, a day before we get actual numbers we can laugh at?
 

KingGondo

Banned
Ask him about the military!
Yeah, that was my first idea too. Thanks to you and Sirpopopopopopopop.

Here's my reply:

As for your statement that "there is not a single entity run by the government that is successful," how do you define "success?" Would you call the US military "successful?" What about the fact that the government built the interstate highway system, regulates air traffic, monitors our food and drugs, issues patents, runs the national park system, delivers mail, prints money, sets economic policy, explores space, funds scientific research, enforces laws, finds and kills terrorists, enters into treaties with other nations, etc? Should that stuff be left to private industry?
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I buy the numbers 100% in this case to be honest, but it'll be what, a day before we get actual numbers we can laugh at?

Honestly I wouldn't be surprised at the turn around, the guy deserves to go down in flames and bring everyone who thinks like he does down with him, but like Spec said above I also wouldn't be surprised if they were trying to build a come back narrative for this guy. Ras can't be trusted til mid-October imo.
 

codhand

Member
Ras can't be trusted

Tru

I love that www.electoral-vote.com has the option to omit Rasmussen from their results.

mkwcB.png


I've been Ras-free for 8 years now, feels good.
 

pigeon

Banned
Maybe Rasmussen is skewing to try and force Akin to drop out? If the guy is a fraud I refuse to believe any of his polls, whether I like them or not.

I don't think anybody is arguing that any of these pollsters are frauds except maybe that 90% senior likely voter outfit. But pollsters can and usually do have systemic biases built into their operating procedures. It's like sighting in a rifle -- if the bullet hits a little to the left of where you're aiming, you don't throw it away and look for one that's perfect every time, or you'll be looking forever. You just adjust your sight so that it matches the lean of the gun. So I don't think Rasmussens lean is deliberate bias, which is what you're suggesting, but rather an polling artifact to be aware of. They can't just flip that around without becoming an actual scam outfit.
 

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Having a cordial email debate with a coworker, and he said:

Yeah. Besides the fact that I'm pretty sure that by "successful" he means "makes money," anyone care to help me refute him?
But the government isn't taking anything over, why should you have to demonstrate a list of things they fully run well when they won't be running health care. It's not single payer and they don't implement delivery.
 

eznark

Banned
I missed this yesterday:

In other results, the PPP poll found that 51% of voters approve of the job Gov. Scott Walker is doing to 46% who disapprove, and that he would lead a generic Democratic opponent by that same margin, just slightly less than the figures in the June 5 recall and just barely within the margin of error. The Marquette poll found a nearly identical approval rating for Walker.

21645635.jpg
 

KingGondo

Banned
But the government isn't taking anything over, why should you have to demonstrate a list of things they fully run well when they won't be running health care. It's not single payer and they don't implement delivery.
I made that point too. Shit, people who love private insurance should love Obamacare.

The list was just trying to refute the idea that government is utterly incompetent in every way, which is a sadly popular meme among conservatives nowadays.
 

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
I made that point too. Shit, people who love private insurance should love Obamacare.

The list was just trying to refute the idea that government is utterly incompetent in every way, which is a sadly popular meme among conservatives nowadays.
I just mean you are getting drawn into a side argument. Ours and his/her definition of succesful is likely to differ anyway. Stick to the core discussion
 

KingGondo

Banned
I just mean you are getting drawn into a side argument. Ours and his/her definition of succesful is likely to differ anyway. Stick to the core discussion
The public/private debate is a core issue, though. One of his reasons for being against Obamacare is that "everything the government gets involved in gets dragged down/held back/mismanaged by the government."

The big problem I have is when conservatives act like private corporations have their interests at heart any more than a democratically-elected government.
 

LosDaddie

Banned

Those results wouldn't surprise me. Living in FL, I can't see Obama winning here again (he barely won it in 08).


It's worth noting that 1980 is only eight elections, and that most economic and polling data dates back to at least the sixties -- which means that what they really mean is that they have a 50% success rate for the elections we have data for (or they'd mention more elections).

When did CU start making these predictions, though? Getting 8 in a row correct is a good record.


I made that point too. Shit, people who love private insurance should love Obamacare.

The list was just trying to refute the idea that government is utterly incompetent in every way, which is a sadly popular meme among conservatives nowadays.

why are you having this debate? For fun? Going by his "not a single entity that is run by the government that is successful and to let them take over 16% of our economy " statement, I doubt he's little more than another Limbaugh parrot.
 

KingGondo

Banned
why are you having this debate? For fun? Going by his "not a single entity that is run by the government that is successful and to let them take over 16% of our economy " statement, I doubt he's little more than another Limbaugh parrot.
Mainly for fun. I realize that he's probably hopelessly biased and skewed, but he's nice enough and tried to engage me in a diplomatic way.

I care too damn much about politics, though. It's unhealthy, especially in a state as red as Oklahoma. :(
 

codhand

Member
I care too damn much about politics, though. It's unhealthy, especially in a state as red as Oklahoma. :(

Was gonna say something before, but now that you revealed the state in question, I will say it's much easier to criticize the Gov't when you live in the middle of nowhere. Surprised he can type with his gun in one hand and bible in the other.
heey ooo
 

eznark

Banned
Fine. Do you think it's lasting?

Do I think what is lasting? I was laughing at how terrible that was considering Ryan on the ticket and Thompson destroying Baldwin.

Are you attacking me to cover up your poor math skills? Because I already used that technique on gcubed this week.
 

gcubed

Member
Do I think what is lasting? I was laughing at how terrible that was considering Ryan on the ticket and Thompson destroying Baldwin.

Are you attacking me to cover up your poor math skills? Because I already used that technique on gcubed this week.

i dont remember this! I remember my poor amazon skills.
 

KingGondo

Banned
Was gonna say something before, but now that you revealed the state in question, I will say it's much easier to criticize the Gov't when you live in the middle of nowhere. Surprised he can type with his gun in one hand and bible in the other.
heey ooo
It's kinda sad, actually. Oklahoma used to be a strong blue state that voted for labor rights, fair treatment of farmers, and standing up for the little guy in general.

In 2008, we were the only state without a single blue county.
 

Jonm1010

Banned
Mainly for fun. I realize that he's probably hopelessly biased and skewed, but he's nice enough and tried to engage me in a diplomatic way.

I care too damn much about politics, though. It's unhealthy, especially in a state as red as Oklahoma. :(
You could also throw in little things like medicare's cost growth has been much slower than that of private insurers.

There's also medicare's lower administrative costs compared to private insurance... Though there are common conservative counters to that that are of course misleading and I don't remember all the context surrounding that topic, so maybe keep that point out.
 
Having a cordial email debate with a coworker, and he said:

Yeah. Besides the fact that I'm pretty sure that by "successful" he means "makes money," anyone care to help me refute him?

That's all you need to say. The government's job isn't to "make money." When the government makes money, that's called a tax. Unless your coworker thinks the government should just be a taxing machine until it removes all currency from the economy, then ... well, either way, your coworker appears to be an idiot. Not an idiot for being ignorant, but an idiot for opening his/her mouth and proving it.
 

pigeon

Banned
Including me!!

"4 point bump, lol"

Too late for apologies. I've already got a bus ticket.

I hope it stays that way. Wisconsin flipping would be very anxiety-provoking. I would like to think that the bloom will come off Ryan's rose sooner or later in most places, but he could hang on in Wisconsin.
 

luoapp

Member
Mainly for fun. I realize that he's probably hopelessly biased and skewed, but he's nice enough and tried to engage me in a diplomatic way.

I care too damn much about politics, though. It's unhealthy, especially in a state as red as Oklahoma. :(

You can ask him why he wants a "for-profit" government, if "money" is the only metric?
 

eznark

Banned
I hope it stays that way. Wisconsin flipping would be very anxiety-provoking. I would like to think that the bloom will come off Ryan's rose sooner or later in most places, but he could hang on in Wisconsin.

I think it will get closer (barring any significant changes) but ultimately I think Obama will still win the state by 2.

Van Hollen (State AG) just sent another formal request of the State SC to expedite the ruling on voter ID. I think if they take it up (they won't) and validate the law (100% certainty) then Romney becomes the favorite in the state.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom