Damn, son. EV with the uncut shit.
(I realize this guy is misguided, but he's a nice person who seems intelligent enough at work--a little reasoned discussion can't hurt. However, I don't harbor any illusions of changing his mind.)
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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread |OT2| This thread title is now under military control
- Thread starter AlteredBeast
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(I realize this guy is misguided, but he's a nice person who seems intelligent enough at work--a little reasoned discussion can't hurt. However, I don't harbor any illusions of changing his mind.)
PhoenixDark
Banned
Yup. It's the only poll to even suggest Akin is in trouble and naturally GAF decides its trustworthy now. Ras always finds establishment narratives to be true. If this was a five poInt lead perhaps I'd buy it. Ten is bullshit, especially in that state
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
It probably will sink again, but I don't think WI flipping would be any kind of national bellwether, regardless. Would just mean Ryan brought significant home-state advantage. Of course it would be better for it not to flip at all.
Something like PA flipping would likely indicate it was dragging a bunch of other battleground states along with it.
Whoyatalkingto.gif
I love that people think Gondo's co-worker will respond to reason and logic.
its the only poll taken after rape-gate
Gawker file dump on Bain's offshore machinations.
Nothing good will come of this... even if nothing explosive lies within.
Nothing good will come of this... even if nothing explosive lies within.
Byakuya769
Member
Are you serious? So back-testing magic. SMH.
Wait so that supposedly super-accurate election model was just created this year? So basically that thing can't be trusted at all, if you already know the results then the test is already biased. OK, so we can go back to ignoring that crazy election model.
Yes, I think he may eat those words if the results are verified by another poll in the coming days.
It's not that I think it would be a bellwether so much as that it changes Romney's EC math from "basically impossible" to "very hard indeed." Nate's ten-point correction in his election forecast is making me a little bit nervous this week.
Guys, they are using past data to build a forecasting model. This is the first test of said model.
What good would a model using no data points be??
speculawyer
Member
This is such an unfortunate meme that the right has solidified in many. There are certainly issues that can make government projects less efficient at times such as the fact that if you go over-budget you don't go bankrupt and lose your equity/job. But it is not like working for the government suddenly makes people retarded. Those government workers landed a 1 ton rover on Mars . . . could you do that? The mail is delivered very reliably and efficiently every day. The US military is not a clown brigade.
So when people bring up that meme, I just often say "Why do you hate our military? Why are you calling them incompetent?"
el retorno
Member
Did someone leak this or is this public information? Also is it anything specific to Romney or just Bain?
I just don't understand why someone would leak to gakwer.
This is the same problem I had with my Grandmother. They're convinced the government does nothing good.
The problem with this is the military and fire department, etc. to them are the "exception," they succeed despite them being part of the government.
speculawyer
Member
It doesn't look like it will be a big storm . . . so he'll say that god protected them from a big storm.
Byakuya769
Member
I understand that. But why release ludicrous results with the caveat, "Oh, our model has done extraordinarily well in previous election cycles!"?
Thagomizer
Member
http://www.colorado.edu/news/releas...nts-romney-win-university-colorado-study-says
I guess you haven't actually read the press release?
He isn't overly congratulatory at all. Just says they've built a model that has correctly predicted 8 outcomes. Considering it's a 50/50 chance, I'm not terrible impressed but hey, it's right until it isn't.
Rocket Scientist
Member
Holy shit...
From a letter to investors. Romney had invested 1 to 5 million in that fund. LOL.
http://gawker.com/5936878
thezerofire
Banned
A lot of the people I have this discussion with just say "Well then why is the postal service bankrupt?" and then refuse to listen when I tell them about prefunding pensions.
Oh and "Well what about the DMV? HM? HM?"
el retorno
Member
And...
Romney invested in something that wanted a democratic win. How does this hurt him?
Ryan on the ticket actually seems like it will hurt and keep hurting. Even though he's a Wisconsin politician, and that should help, it seems like his big thing, medicare, isn't a winning issue in Wisconsin. If you look at the Marquette poll Wisconsinites reject his voucher idea, but also think that there needs to be changes in Medicare to keep it going. That is literally opposite of what Paul Ryan and now Romney are running on, since they're running on voucherizing and not "cutting" what Obama did. Basically Obama's solution is the one that Wisconsin as a whole seems to want.
Rocket Scientist
Member
It doesn't. It's just funny. Sheesh.
Byakuya769
Member
Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble, said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.
Tell them the government has put rovers on Mars.
If that doesn't work, well, they're hopeless.
CharlieDigital
Banned
It implies that he supports/would have supported/will support further stimulus (whether through Congress or the Fed) -- against his party's principles -- because of his own personal financial involvement in investments that would be negatively affected otherwise.
el retorno
Member
How in the world would it support that? He invested in a fund that thought that. I just don't get the connection back to Romney? Does everything I have stock in reflect my beliefs on what should happen?
But its petty and does nothing to further the argument he's out of touch. Focus on the complexity and tax avoidance not the fact that they said nice things about Obama's policies. I get the humor but its not "holy shit" worthy. Ironic maybe.
Rocket Scientist
Member
Now that you say it that way, I can't believe someone who could stand to profit immensely from putting into place certain policies, is possibly going to be president. Though I'm assuming this is the case with senators too, this is the presidency. Damn.
http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/167202505.html
Craig Gilbert breaks down recent polls in Wisconsin post-Ryan. Pretty good read, doesn't say a whole lot but I like that he goes in depth on the numbers.
That is a 100% true statement. Unless the guy is just lying and their forecasting model doesn't actual show Romney winning? What's the problem?
Craig Gilbert breaks down recent polls in Wisconsin post-Ryan. Pretty good read, doesn't say a whole lot but I like that he goes in depth on the numbers.
That is a 100% true statement. Unless the guy is just lying and their forecasting model doesn't actual show Romney winning? What's the problem?
Romney's financial position on the stimulus: With an economy that is still highly dependent on fiscal support, the outcome of the midterm elections could lead to gridlock that would have major ramifications for the economy. An expiration of stimulus would be a significant fiscal drag.
Romney's campaign position on the stimulus: "The largest one-time careless expenditure of government money in American history." "That stimulus didn't work. That stimulus didn't put more private-sector people to work."
How do more dissonances in his cognizance not hurt him?
el retorno
Member
Obama is going to need to work harder in Wisconsin for sure but I'd hesitate to really say he's in trouble. If the numbers trend more to the republicans after the conventions he needs to start worrying.
Now he just needs to keep an eye out for it.
Your first position isn't his, its a fund he invested in. In another fund with his money they critize Obama. Also when did he put money in that fund? If he put it in 2007 does their changing view in 2010 matter and reflect Romney?
The problem is it isn't a true statement. When I look at the map, I don't see a president who is in electoral trouble. The map doesn't reflect that right now.
So you're saying the guy is lying and according to his forecasting model Obama isn't actually in trouble? Why would he do that and how could you possibly know??
You're doing poligaf wrong
You're doing poligaf wrong
Black Republican
Member
46-46 on gallup for obama/romney for the first time in over a week i think
I'm not saying he's lying. I'm saying he's wrong.
CharlieDigital
Banned
You're a small time investor with a couple thousand dollars here and there with virtually no control or say in the outcome of your investment other than taking the money out or putting more in.
When you invest millions of dollars into a fund and can, through external powers, affect the performance of that fund, it matters a lot.
I agree, not to split hairs but I did say his financial position.
Examples are good:
I'm running as an anti-tobacco lobby candidate who has a rather large investment in Altria. Does that investment help or hurt my credibility on the issue that happens to be fundamental to my platform?
I guess you're misreading what he is saying? I'm not sure what you're talking about. The professor is saying that according to his model Obama is in trouble. How could you possibly know that he is incorrectly reading his own model?
Byakuya769
Member
For what you are arguing the correct constrution would be: "Our model clearly suggests that there is electoral trouble for the President." That sentence has a completely different meaning than, saying "the President clearly has electoral trouble."
It would be the same as saying, "Based on my stock price model, Apple will clearly plummet to a price of $3.00 a share."
I dunno about 100% true. "It becomes clear" is a pretty dramatic framing from a model that's yet to have an accurate prediction. Basically, I agree that every model has to start somewhere -- though I question the use of 1980 as a cutoff point for their fitting, among other things -- but if this model has no predictions yet then I feel like it's not really much of a news story.
Crap, you are right. Did you guys here Romney had a MEETING with a GUY ONETIME?! And he bought chikfila?!11
Dem landslide or America is stupid!
I agree with that 100%.
The guy is predicating his "the president is in trouble" statement on the results of his supposedly predictive model. Unless you are saying he is reading the model wrong or lying about its results, that's a true statement.
el retorno
Member
Taking the max they say he has in that fund, 5 million, thats only 1/240 of the fund (1.2 billion). I don't think thats much influence. And what about his other funds that like the republican positions?
This just screams gotcha and not one that matters.
And how does this fit with his investments in anti-obama funds? He's hedged in everything. He can't lose. If your gonna take that and spin it into an argument about how the game is rigged for them I can understand. But your seeming trying to tie him to supporting obama's policies because he has money which might benefit.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
There's the PoliGAF we are used to
If we saw those tax returns I'm sure we'd only find more and more contradictions, at what point would they matter? Again this is especially true for Romney because his whole platform is based around improving the economy. Would he improve it Goldman Sachs style? IE "Market-making" for the American people, and then having a counter position for his own portfolio? I'm sure his fetus disposal factory was only a 240th too. What isn't a 240th when you're a billionaire?
Exactly, Mitt looks out for Mitt. There's a reason he won't share his tax returns and it's not because "they will only want moar". Also, what are the anti-obama fund's ticker symbols, I wanna invest
Rocket Scientist
Member
You guys are way too serious.
maximum360
Member
9 points is lean blue?
Makes sense. Thanks.
Mainly for fun. I realize that he's probably hopelessly biased and skewed, but he's nice enough and tried to engage me in a diplomatic way.
I care too damn much about politics, though. It's unhealthy, especially in a state as red as Oklahoma.
I might engage is some political discourse with a co-worker, if they weren't walking, talking contradictions. I have an older female co-worker who constantly complains about having no health insurance, yet she almost had a mental breakdown when Obamacare was upheld. The rest of my co-workers at my new office are cool, though. They don't bring up politics whenever possible, like the ones at my old company did.
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