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[codhand]

Man, I completely forgot about ACORN.

If you were on one of your folks FWD lists you wouldn't.

 

[Effect]

That's only when she's off the cuff. She'll have a nice written speech here.

It's not just what she says but how she tends to say things and her facial expression.

 

[Mercury Fred]

You should be overjoyed instead. Because the one thing they want in all the world, to be president and first lady, is something they will never, ever have. Not all their money, their lies, their smear tactics are going to change that. They are stuck in a slow motion car crash towards failure, and all they can do is flail their arms before the inevitable crunch.

This is true. I do look forward to seeing them try to force smiles through being utterly humiliated on election day.

 

[codhand]

It's not just what she says but how she tends to say things and her facial expression.

You mean like Amy Poehlor playing a raging ****?

This is true. I do look forward to seeing them try to force smiles through being utterly humiliated on election day.

It's been pointed out several times in the media that even McCain did more to deflect the "otherness" criticisms. Hell, Romney is embracing it, or indulging it, or whatever you wanna call it.

 

[Diablos]

Whoa, Rubio isn't quite the shining star they want him to be, lol

 

[eznark]

http://www.dispatch.com/content/sto...ht-races-put-undecided-voters-in-control.html

The closest Dispatch Poll in modern history shows the races for president and U.S. Senate in a dead heat in battleground Ohio.

For the record, Republican Mitt Romney holds a “lead” of 0.22 percentage point over President Barack Obama. That’s a mere 2 votes out of more than 1,730 cast for president in the mail poll.

By comparison, Sen. Sherrod Brown has a landslide going over GOP state Treasurer Josh Mandel with a margin of 0.87 point. That’s a whopping 15-ballot bulge.

I cannot believe Mandel is that close. His ads are pretty good and he is getting a ton of PAC help it seems. Not sure I've seen any pro-Brown ads.

 

[gcubed]

http://www.dispatch.com/content/sto...ht-races-put-undecided-voters-in-control.html



I cannot believe Mandel is that close. His ads are pretty good and he is getting a ton of PAC help it seems. Not sure I've seen any pro-Brown ads.

a mail in survey? i'll treat the results like most people would treat the survey, by throwing it in the garbage

 

[ToxicAdam]

Any poll that shows Obama/Romney deadlocked in Ohio obviously has some skewed LV models.

edit: lol, it's not even a legitimate poll?

 

[eznark]

a mail in survey? i'll treat the results like most people would treat the survey, by throwing it in the garbage

Unless it breaks for my guy next time.

How are we trying to spin the ABC News/Wash Post poll? Evil conservative news outlets?

 

[Guevara]

So the porn star who played Palin is actually in Tampa stripping for (presumably) GOP conference attendees.

She's going to make so much money.

 

[gcubed]

Unless it breaks for my guy next time.

How are we trying to spin the ABC News/Wash Post poll? Evil conservative news outlets?

this your new go to line any time anyone discounts a poll that is an extreme outlier? You can do better then that.

 

[thekad]

Wow, I almost felt sorry for Priebus.

Spoiler

lol

 

[ToxicAdam]

Columbus is also a huge Republican stronghold in Ohio. Making this "poll" even more suspect.

 

[codhand]

How are we trying to spin the ABC News/Wash Post poll? Evil conservative news outlets?

The second national poll this month showing a 1 point lead --the other from Fox-- do we even need spin?

Wow, I almost felt sorry for Priebus.

Spoiler

lol

haha, yeah, I doubt he will leave his A-game at home again, after this slaughter.

Columbus is also a huge Republican stronghold in Ohio.

Wait, really? The same Columbus that has 50 thousand voting youths floating around?

 

[eznark]

this your new go to line any time anyone discounts a poll that is an extreme outlier? You can do better then that.

It's not an extreme outlier though. The UofC poll released over roughly the same time has the race to within 3 (inside the moe). Every poll has the state moving slightly away from Obama the last 6 weeks or so.

 

[speculawyer]

Chris Matthews just ripped Reince Priebus a new asshole on Morning Joe

He made news with it.

Chris Matthews lashed out at Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus on Monday in Tampa during a live "Morning Joe" segment, with the feisty MSNBC host accusing Mitt Romney and the GOP of playing the race card in their campaign against President Barack Obama.

"It is an embarrassment to your party to play that card," Matthews said. "This stuff about getting rid of the work requirement for welfare is dishonest, everyone's pointed out it's dishonest, and you are playing that little ethnic card there. You can play games and giggle about it, but the fact is your side is playing that card. You start talking about work requirements, everyone knows what game you're playing. It's a race card."

Matthews railed Priebus over Romney's recent joke about the birther movement.
"This thing about if your name is Romney," Matthews said. "Yeah you went to prep school and you brag about it. This guy's got an African name, he has to live with it. Look who's going further in their life. Who was born on third base? This absurdity, making fun of the birth certificate issue."

"Of course he's playing the race card," he continued. "Why would he bring [the birth certificate] up?"

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/chris-matthews-race-card-romney-priebus-145819601.html

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Unless it breaks for my guy next time.

How are we trying to spin the ABC News/Wash Post poll? Evil conservative news outlets?

Please wait until this actually happens in this thread to make fun of it. Pre-emptive complaints to actual occurrences is like forty to zero right now.

 

[reilo]

It's not an extreme outlier though. The UofC poll released over roughly the same time has the race to within 3 (inside the moe). Every poll has the state moving slightly away from Obama the last 6 weeks or so.

Columbus Dispatch*	8/15 - 8/25	1758 LV	45	45	Tie
Ohio Poll/Univ of Cin.	8/16 - 8/21	847 LV	49	46	Obama +3
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac	8/15 - 8/21	1253 LV	50	44	Obama +6
Purple Strategies	8/13 - 8/14	600 LV	44	46	Romney +2
Rasmussen Reports	8/13 - 8/13	500 LV	45	45	Tie
PPP (D)	8/9 - 8/12	961 LV	48	45	Obama +3
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac	7/24 - 7/30	1193 LV	50	44	Obama +6
WeAskAmerica*	7/24 - 7/24	1115 LV	48	40	Obama +8
Rasmussen Reports	7/18 - 7/18	500 LV	47	45	Obama +2
Purple Strategies	7/9 - 7/13	600 LV	48	45	Obama +3

??

 

[eznark]

Columbus Dispatch*	8/15 - 8/25	1758 LV	45	45	Tie
Ohio Poll/Univ of Cin.	8/16 - 8/21	847 LV	49	46	Obama +3
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac	8/15 - 8/21	1253 LV	50	44	Obama +6
Purple Strategies	8/13 - 8/14	600 LV	44	46	Romney +2
Rasmussen Reports	8/13 - 8/13	500 LV	45	45	Tie
PPP (D)	8/9 - 8/12	961 LV	48	45	Obama +3
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac	7/24 - 7/30	1193 LV	50	44	Obama +6
WeAskAmerica*	7/24 - 7/24	1115 LV	48	40	Obama +8
Rasmussen Reports	7/18 - 7/18	500 LV	47	45	Obama +2
Purple Strategies	7/9 - 7/13	600 LV	48	45	Obama +3

??

Not sure what you are questioning. From June the polls with multiple results all either move to Romney except for PPP which showed no change.

 

[Tim-E]

Please wait until this actually happens in this thread to make fun of it. Pre-emptive complaints to actual occurrences is like forty to zero right now.

It's basically been the only thing he's done in this thread lately. Most of his posts break down to "lol, liberals amirite?"

 

[codhand]

Columbus Dispatch*	8/15 - 8/25	1758 LV	45	45	Tie
Ohio Poll/Univ of Cin.	8/16 - 8/21	847 LV	49	46	Obama +3
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac	8/15 - 8/21	1253 LV	50	44	Obama +6
Purple Strategies	8/13 - 8/14	600 LV	44	46	Romney +2
Rasmussen Reports	8/13 - 8/13	500 LV	45	45	Tie
PPP (D)	8/9 - 8/12	961 LV	48	45	Obama +3
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac	7/24 - 7/30	1193 LV	50	44	Obama +6
WeAskAmerica*	7/24 - 7/24	1115 LV	48	40	Obama +8
Rasmussen Reports	7/18 - 7/18	500 LV	47	45	Obama +2
Purple Strategies	7/9 - 7/13	600 LV	48	45	Obama +3

??

Ooh those Ohio polls.

 

[ToxicAdam]

Wait, really? The same Columbus that has 50 thousand voting youths floating around?

Oh, I'm thinking of Delaware county, which is just north of Columbus and is where all the exploding suburbs are.

 

[reilo]

Not sure what you are questioning. From June the polls with multiple results all either move to Romney except for PPP which showed no change.

Really now?

There's 7 polls in that timeframe that have Obama anywhere from +2 to +8 (lol).

The only ones that even give Romney an edge are Rasmussen and Purple Strategies.

And:

CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac	8/15 - 8/21	1253 LV	50	44	Obama +6

CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac	7/24 - 7/30	1193 LV	50	44	Obama +6

 

[eznark]

Ooh those Ohio polls.

The June Quin. poll was at 9%. So 3 of the four polls with multiple data points moving to Romney with one stagnant. So yes, those polls are the ones I was referring to.

I think you may have misread what I wrote, reilo. I never claimed he was winning. I said the polls were moving away from the big Obama lead.

 

[gcubed]

Not sure what you are questioning. From June the polls with multiple results all either move to Romney except for PPP which showed no change.

actually, half show the same results and half show movement... and its actually 2:1 because we already established that we should completely discount Rasmussen from your earlier "lol polls for my guy" posts.

And if you actually look at the dispatch poll it skews heavily in favor of the group of people you would think would actually respond to mail in polls. Retired. There is also a 9 point shift to the GOP from Independents in comparison to 2008.

edit... just noticed that we should go back to an arbitrary time period to make your point stand

 

[codhand]

Oh, I'm thinking of Delaware county, which is just north of Columbus and is where all the exploding suburbs are.

Ah, yes, the McMansion burbs of Ohio are notoriously cocktail conservative.

 

[eznark]

actually, half show the same results and half show movement... and its actually 2:1 because we already established that we should completely discount Rasmussen from your earlier "lol polls for my guy" posts.

And if you actually look at the dispatch poll it skews heavily in favor of the group of people you would think would actually respond to mail in polls. Retired. There is also a 9 point shift to the GOP from Independents in comparison to 2008.

Wait, retirees are good or bad? I thought Paul Ryan destroyed the old vote for the GOP?

Questioning the makeup of those polled is only useful if you know the general makeup of the people who vote in Ohio. I have no idea. I imagine this isn't their first poll though, how has it done in the past?

edit... just noticed that we should go back to an arbitrary time period to make your point stand

Is June more arbitrary than July? Seems like the month Romney solidified the nomination is a more relevant starting point than...well, whatever reilo used to decide on July.

 

[The Librarian]

Mike Grunwald, in a guest TPM blog post, has an excellent, pointed summary of what the stimulus did.

For starters, the stimulus was by far the largest energy bill in history, pouring a mind-boggling $90 billion into clean energy when we had been spending just a few billion dollars a year. It included unprecedented investments in wind, solar, and other renewables; energy efficiency in every form; a smarter grid; electric vehicles; advanced biofuels; and the factories to build all that green stuff in the U.S. The clean energy industry was on the brink of death after the financial collapse of 2008, but thanks to the stimulus, U.S. generation of renewable power has doubled under Obama. The stimulus is building the world’s largest wind farm, a half dozen of the world’s largest solar farms, and the nation’s first refineries for cellulosic biofuels. It created an advanced battery industry for electric vehicles almost entirely from scratch, financing 30 new factories. And it launched a research agency called ARPA-E, modeled on the Pentagon’s DARPA unit that pioneered the Internet and GPS technology, that’s already creating the clean-energy breakthroughs of tomorrow.

As they say in the infomercials, that’s not all. The stimulus also poured $27 billion-with-a-b into health information technology that will drag our antiquated pen-and-paper medical system into the digital age, so just about every American will have an electronic medical record by 2015, and doctors will no longer kill their patients with chicken-scratch handwriting. The Recovery Act included the most dramatic federal education reforms in decades, including the Race to the Top competition that has transformed the national debate over public schools. It launched the most extensive infrastructure investments since Eisenhower, including a high-speed rail initiative that could transform America’s pathetic inter-city passenger trains. It modernized the New Deal-era unemployment insurance system, and extended broadband to underserved areas in ways reminiscent of the New Deal’s rural electrification. It included a new homelessness prevention program that kept 1.2 million Americans off the streets, so the homeless population declined despite the weak economy, and a new municipal bond program that financed $180 billion worth of public works, a stimulus hidden inside the stimulus. And so on.

The Recovery Act also poured all that cash into the economic jetstream with unprecedented transparency, a big reason it was on time, under budget, and virtually fraud-free. Experts predicted that 5%-7% of its spending would be lost to fraud, but so far the confirmed losses have been about 0.01%. Stimulus watchdog Earl Devaney—the hard-nosed investigator who helped break open the Jack Abramoff scandal—has been stunned by how clean it’s been. “We don’t get involved in politics, but whether you’re a Democrat, Republican, communist, whatever, you’ve got to appreciate that the serious fraud just hasn’t happened,” he told me.

 

[reilo]

Also

Rasmussen

Purple Strategies

Columbus Dispatch

NYT Quinnipiac

U. of Cin/Ohio Poll

PPP

Yeah, let's give more credence to Rasmussen and Purple Strategies instead of the polls most likely to be accurate that are unchanged for Obama in the past 6 weeks.

 

[XenodudeX]

Rasmussen has a terrible internet connection. wow

 

[gcubed]

Wait, retirees are good or bad? I thought Paul Ryan destroyed the old vote for the GOP?

Questioning the makeup of those polled is only useful if you know the general makeup of the people who vote in Ohio. I have no idea. I imagine this isn't their first poll though, how has it done in the past?



Is June more arbitrary than July? I went back until I saw a poll with three data points.

you can easily find the general makeup of people who vote in Ohio on multiple places on the internet. This is their first poll this year.

 

[Tim-E]

"I'm just going by the numbers here, folks! I don't care how it goes either way, cause lol politics. Oh wait, the poll is unfavorable for democrats? ololol libs!!!"

 

[eznark]

Also

Rasmussen

Purple Strategies

Columbus Dispatch

NYT Quinnipiac

U. of Cin/Ohio Poll

Yeah, let's give more credence to Rasmussen and Purple Strategies instead of the polls most likely to be accurate that are unchanged for Obama in the past 6 weeks.

What does this mean?

 

[reilo]

What does this mean?

Those are the weightings that 538 gives each Pollster. Notice that the two polls that are moving towards Romney are weighted the least, while the ones that are unchanged for Obama are weighted the most?

 

[Tim-E]

Those are the weightings that 538 gives each Pollster. Notice that the two polls that are moving towards Romney are weighted the least, while the ones that are unchanged for Obama are weighted the most?

It's from the New York Times, a liberal rag, so invalid!

 

[eznark]

Those are the weightings that 538 gives each Pollster. Notice that the two polls that are moving towards Romney are weighted the least, while the ones that are unchanged for Obama are weighted the most?

So....538 considers the Columbus Dispatch poll credible and this discussion was rendered moot?

We should have started there!

 

[reilo]

So....538 considers the Columbus Dispatch poll credible and this discussion was rendered moot?

We should have started there!

No, it considers your assertion that Obama is losing ground in the polling as it relates to Ohio moot.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Wait, retirees are good or bad? I thought Paul Ryan destroyed the old vote for the GOP?

Questioning the makeup of those polled is only useful if you know the general makeup of the people who vote in Ohio. I have no idea. I imagine this isn't their first poll though, how has it done in the past?



Is June more arbitrary than July?

Well technically, yes. The further back you go, the less relevant the trend is. Does it matter what Ohio looked like in, say, January? That said, the general election picture was pretty clear in June so it's not necessarily irrelevant.

Also, even those saying that the Ryan pick is bad for the senior vote aren't predicting a wave of old white people votes for Obama. He's always going to lose that demographic, but depressed senior turnout and/or some converts won't help Romney mitigate the walloping he's going to take from younger voters and minorities.

 

[DasRaven]

Gov. Piyush Jindal acknowledges potential disaster at his doorstep and cancels his appearances at the RNC.

I wonder if/when Bryant will choose to skip the RNC rather than just postpone. (EDIT: Looks like Gov. Bentley of AL has as well)

BTW: @CNNBRK is probably the second best thing about CNN currently. Slotted between Fareed Zakaria & Soledad O'Brien.

 

[codhand]

Rasmussen has a terrible internet connection. wow

lol, must be using b/g

 

[gcubed]

so, i'm curious to see what happens with all these polls. The polls that are "outliers" in some of these states all carry over 2010 mid term methodologies to 2012 general election polls.

This Columbus dispatch mirrors the 2010 mid term exit polls in their results for the general election. I personally would think this is ... a bit off

 

[eznark]

No, it considers your assertion that Obama is losing ground in the polling as it relates to Ohio moot.

I was just pointing to that data to show a tied race isn't a laughable outlier. I guess I should have just pointed to the New York Times to show that it's a credible outfit. I had no idea such a ranking existed. Thanks!

Well technically, yes. The further back you go, the less relevant the trend is.

That's why I tried to pick the effective nomination month.

 

[gcubed]

I was just pointing to that data to show a tied race isn't a laughable outlier. I guess I should have just pointed to the New York Times to show that it's a credible outfit. I had no idea such a ranking existed. Thanks!



That's why I tried to pick the effective nomination month.

how have you made it years in this thread without being bombarded by 538 links?

 

[pigeon]

Those are the weightings that 538 gives each Pollster. Notice that the two polls that are moving towards Romney are weighted the least, while the ones that are unchanged for Obama are weighted the most?

Let's not play games. Nate did a whole blog post specifically about this poll, and it's on the front page right now, so we don't have to guess. He says, essentially, it's as good as any other poll now that phone polls are having so much trouble getting responses, that the Dispatch poll is about average in accuracy (which is to say, sometimes good, sometimes bad), and that the poll is in line with the polling consensus which says Obama ahead by a very small amount, so he doesn't see a problem with it. It's fine to question it of your own volition, but don't misrepresent the opinion of your sources,

 

[reilo]

I was just pointing to that data to show a tied race isn't a laughable outlier. I guess I should have just pointed to the New York Times to show that it's a credible outfit. I had no idea such a ranking existed. Thanks!

I don't disagree with the notion that a tied race is not an outlier. I was just disagreeing with the notion that every poll was moving slightly away from Obama in the past 6 weeks in Ohio.

Every poll has the state moving slightly away from Obama the last 6 weeks or so.

As far as I can tell, only two recurring polls are in that time span: Rasmussen and Purple Strategies, and both of them are considered on the low-tier of pollsters.

 

[eznark]

Quin went from 9 to 6 over that time as well didn't it? Like I said I don't think Romney is winning, but I do think it is generally within the margin of error which to me means any poll showing them tied isn't an outlier to be laughed at. Unless it is Rasmussen.

how have you made it years in this thread without being bombarded by 538 links?

I have, just never saw those agency rankings before.

 

[Measley]

Matthews went after him over Romney's birth certificate "joke", the welfare ad, how the Republican party try's to portray Obama as "foreign", and how they claim Obama is running a dirty campaign and the Romney campaign are not. It got VERY heated

I really enjoyed how Priebus denied everything, and then went right back into the very thing Matthews was talking about. The crowd applauding Matthews for taking Priebus to the woodshed was icing on the cake.

 

[reilo]

Let's not play games. Nate did a whole blog post specifically about this poll, and it's on the front page right now, so we don't have to guess. He says, essentially, it's as good as any other poll now that phone polls are having so much trouble getting responses, that the Dispatch poll is about average in accuracy (which is to say, sometimes good, sometimes bad), and that the poll is in line with the polling consensus which says Obama ahead by a very small amount, so he doesn't see a problem with it. It's fine to question it of your own volition, but don't misrepresent the opinion of your sources,

I'm pretty sure you are misrepresenting my opinion of the discussion that ez and I were having.

 

[gcubed]

actually, i take back all my complaints about the poll methodology, because if Obama still holds a sliver of a lead with the exact same voting breakdowns of the 2010 midterms he's pretty good in Ohio

 

[eznark]

I'm pretty sure you are misrepresenting my opinion of the discussion that ez and I were having.

Knowing that post existed would have saved this entire conversation, damn it.

actually, i take back all my complaints about the poll methodology, because if Obama still holds a sliver of a lead with the exact same voting breakdowns of the 2010 midterms he's pretty good in Ohio

Hold off, TPM might rip the poll. You don't want to back yourself into a corner!

And yeah to be clear I never said Romney is winning in Ohio, just that it's moving away from Obama. I specifically worded it that way because I don't think it is really moving towards Romney. And we all know that "anyone but xxx" isn't generally a winning strategy.