i dont read TPM, but i'm sure someone will post the story
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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread |OT2| This thread title is now under military control
- Thread starter AlteredBeast
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i dont read TPM, but i'm sure someone will post the story
Wait you mean this thread isn't the tpm rss feed?
that is one weird shaped mustache
speculawyer
Member
I listen to the 10 or 15 minute clip that Hardball makes available via podcast. And I have to say, I'm not surprised that Matthews went off on him. He's been quite partisan lately and he especially HATES the fringe GOP stuff. The birther stuff, the raped-women-don't-pregnant stuff, etc. He seems to take that stuff quite personally . . . that stuff is not just standard politics.
http://gawker.com/5938164/sarah-pal...for-rnc-delegates-at-gop+themed-club-in-tampa
The main weird takeaway I got from this was that I didn't know Lisa Ann was a dental assistant.
Health care ain't cheap. Also this is kinda creepy.
speculawyer
Member
It is glorious free-market capitalism at work.
I don't remember much from the Ayn Rand books I read some 20+ years ago but I remember a character remarking about how a pair of tits can still get you somewhere.
Just ask Chris Christie!
Aaron Strife
Banned
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
TPM-backpats all around!
PhoenixDark
Banned
Romney leading and tying Obama on Medicare in two recent polls
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/abc-wapo-poll-romney-has-slight-advantage-on?ref=fpblg
Dem message is not as effective as advertised
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/abc-wapo-poll-romney-has-slight-advantage-on?ref=fpblg
Dem message is not as effective as advertised
That Paul Ryan negative medicare dip.
speculawyer
Member
All Romney/Ryan needed to do was muddy up the waters. $700 Billion taken from medicare in both the Obama and Ryan plan. Both make claims the other guy's plan is worse. Who's the old person going to believe? Not the black guy.
Aaron Strife
Banned
One more North Carolina poll, this time from SurveyUSA, has Romney and Obama tied at 43. Registered voters.
True but I mean, do dems need to be ahead on every single issue? Maybe Romney should take this tie in health care polling and apply it to winning 1% of the black vote. Romney is getting trounced on so many issues/demographics, is a tie in medicare really gonna be the difference maker?
PhoenixDark
Banned
Obama is down nearly 20 points with white votes in Florida.
Black Mamba
Member
Isn't this positive for Dems? What was once a big advantage is now slight. That's a victory. Don't need to be ahead of Romney, just close the gap.
getting 24% of conservative vote and 58% of moderate, though.
i dont expect much movement from a state that willfully voted in someone who committed medicare fraud.
Rhomega Beta
Member
My dad is the one sending me the emails, but it's mostly about how Sharia law is taking over places like Canada, France, and Belgium, and will eventually come here.
PhoenixDark
Banned
haha, what? One might be able to argue that if this lowers Romney's numbers with elderly voters that is a plus. But Obama should have a clear lead on Medicare. This tells me that Ryan isn't hurting the ticket as advertised, and the House is not in danger of flipping.
Is this true?
i have no idea on what the numbers were prior. If Romney held a significant lead over Obama on Medicare and now its even, your point is moot.
Black Mamba
Member
Clear lead? Have you ever met old people? It's not easy to change their minds much.
Closing the gap is all that matters. Sure, some on here thought Ryan meant death, but that's them being overzealous.
Obama got 45% in '08 of 65+. These numbers suggest more (since not everyone voted). And I'd argue coming into 2012, Obama started below 45%.
Black Mamba
Member
PD's argument is it didn't completely flip. But again, anyone who thought old people would change in droves is fooling themselves. Old people will believe the earth is flat against all evidence if they always believed it.
No offense to any old people. Just an observation.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
It's the Marion Berry scenario in reverse.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
That's not surprising at all with the massive amount of old white people down there.
/rolleyes
Obama is clearly far and ahead on many important issues over Romney and moving even further away on those, and the leads Romney had on certain issues are vanishing the closer we approach the election.
How anyone can think that's a "bad" sign for Obama must be... oh.
PhoenixDark
Banned
The argument the left has made for two years is that the Ryan budget is so toxic that it flips old people, who according to most polling are vehemently opposed to it. Yet we have multiple polls showing old people sticking with Romney/Ryan, and no mass exodus to democrats. If it's true that the Ryan plan isn't as toxic as advertised than you can kiss Speaker Pelosi dreams goodbye. Likewise, Obama loses what should have been a potent talking point in multiple states.
But its cool if Christianity is more and more integrated with our government and everyday lives, right?
eBay Huckster
Member
A bit late to this, but no, the Dispatch Poll is pretty much universally garbage. It's like an Ohio-centric version of that poll that came out showing Romney up 14 in Florida the other day, only I've actually heard of it.
Black Republican
Member
time to split Florida and make it a 51st state
We've established that it isn't.
Black Mamba
Member
eh, costing them the House is hard to say. It'll come down to Obama's total popular vote in the end. Districts and stuff affect this more.
That said, I've never believed they'd win the House this election. And I don't think the Dems believe it, either.
And the Dems are going to pretend to be overzealous. That's a politician's job in the media. MCCAIN GONNA WIN TOMORROW NIGHT, Y'ALL SEE!!!!
eBay Huckster
Member
Maybe I'm thinking of a different Ohio poll then, because I recall one of them being at the very bottom of Nate Silver's rankings for at least two of the last three cycles
... but he leads on the Medicare issue in the CNN poll.
Do we know what the numbers were before the Ryan pick?
I want to witness the right-wing meltdown on November 7th.
C'mon America, don't let me down!
Aaron Strife
Banned
He only won 42% of the white vote in 2008, so that's about in line with what I'd expect from Florida (which votes more Republican than the nation on average).
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Don't forget part of this nonsense about medicare is built on top of the post-Obamacare/Death-Panels hilarity from a couple years ago.
eBay Huckster
Member
okay, searched a bit further and they were definitely at/near the bottom in 2008 and 2010, but then I don't think Silver takes those rankings much into account anymore
perhaps their historical performance has been decent, I wouldn't know, but I'd still cite the UC/Ohio Poll (which does currently show tossups in both races) well before this
It seems pretty goofy, because Obama is absolutely DESTROYING Romney in the internals amongst all adults (like up 10 points), but is down 1 amongst registered voters. There was only a 2-3 point difference between all adults & RVs in their earlier polls.
Also, if Obama stays at 50% in Florida amongst LV, you can stick a fork in Romney.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
And pretending that the medicare polling being equal is a sign that the Ryan VP pick hasn't been a complete disaster is ridiculously childish. Look at the numbers, dudes. There was no bump, which really means there was a bump but it was overcome by declining numbers across the board. Romney's in (more) trouble.
The Ohio Dispatch poll used the 2010 midterm breakdowns, Gallup I believe also does this, its an awkward choice to use mid term breakdowns on a general election year, but we'll see.
Aaron Strife
Banned
He still ranks them to some degree - Rasmussen polls aren't counted for much, for example.okay, searched a bit further and they were definitely at/near the bottom in 2008 and 2010, but then I don't think Silver takes those rankings much into account anymore
perhaps their historical performance has been decent, I wouldn't know, but I'd still cite the UC/Ohio Poll (which does currently show tossups in both races) well before this
A lot of pollsters are weighting for a repeat of 2010. I think it's after most of them predicted a sample in 2010 somewhere between 2006 and 2008's heavily Dem electorates that clearly didn't happen. (except Gallup which had Republicans up by like 15 points)
The Romney camp was actually ready for the Medicare attacks the second Ryan was added to the ticket, and the "Obama cut $700b for Obamacare" stuff seems to have a bit of staying power, despite the fact that it's a garbage claim. The Obama camp has been strangely quiet this month in comparison to July. My guess is they wanted to spend the early summer months building a narrative about who Romney is before he gets a chance to do it himself and is now just letting the VP pick/convention stuff play out before they go all in with their resources. Those are things that are just going to get a lot of media attention regardless of what the President is doing, so he's not trying to fight them for media coverage when he most likely won't get noticed for much while this stuff is going on. I suspect that they'll go back to being aggressive with their messaging once the conventions are over.
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