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[Puddles]

Just got back.

Romney may have won himself the presidency with that debate performance. Of course it was vague and unrealistic and full of doublespeak, but the typical American won't see any of that. To the layman, I can't see how that was anything but an absolutely dominant performance by Romney.

 

[Effect]

By the way, did anyone hear anything about Immigration?

I think Republicans should go ahead and defund NPR if they produce doofuses like Jim Lehrer. Dude blew it.

Nothing. Man the topics for the debate were beyond horrible.

 

[TheHeretic]

It did miracles for Kerry and McCain...oh wait no it didn't

Kerry and McCain were terrible debaters. Romney did much, much better than that and Obama did manifestly worse than he should have.

 

[ErasureAcer]

If Romney somehow does close the gap he'll lose it all at the town hall where he'll actually have to address certain people's issues. Whether it's the gay army vet or the guy needing medical marijuana...Romney does not excel with one to one conversations with people.

 

[el retorno]

The women and men divide is pretty interesting in the CNN voter chart.

 

[brianmcdoogle]

Has Leher showed up on PBS or any of the talk/cable shows yet tonight to defend his awful job at moderating?

 

[metalslimer]

Just got back.

Romney may have won himself the presidency with that debate performance. Of course it was vague and unrealistic and full of doublespeak, but the typical American won't see any of that. To the layman, I can't see how that was anything but an absolutely dominant performance by Romney.

You think Romney will win Ohio?

 

[Paches]

By the way, did anyone hear anything about Immigration?

I think Republicans should go ahead and defund NPR if they produce doofuses like Jim Lehrer. Dude blew it.

Jim Lehrer was absolutely awful. He just kind of threw a topic out there and then the candidates steamrolled over him for 20 minutes until he moved to the next one.

 

[RDreamer]

He spanked Obama and more. If you look at it purely as a debate, and move the post mortem analysis to one side (and debates aren't judged by people on their post mortem) Obama was steamrolled. The fact that Romney was lying doesn't matter if the sitting President does nothing about it.

Yes it changes the race - the first debate is the most critical and is watched by many.

You're nuts, and just following the media narrative. Sure Romney did pretty well, I'll admit. Perhaps he won (mostly on the fact that the American public is fucking stupid and will buy snake oil from a sleezebag shit-stain like Romney), yeah. He didn't spank him, though, come the fuck on.

 

[Loudninja]

I really dont think people don't get how much of a hole Romney is in.

 

[pigeon]

He spanked Obama and more. If you look at it purely as a debate, and move the post mortem analysis to one side (and debates aren't judged by people on their post mortem) Obama was steamrolled.

You are literally performing a postmortem right now.

Here's something else for people to keep in mind. Obama's edging 50% or 51% in swing state polls now -- whatever tightening has appeared in the race in the last couple days was undecideds going back to Romney after abandoning him for 47%, not Obama losing ground.

This means that Romney didn't have to convince undecided voters -- he had to get a certain percentage of people who have already decided to vote for Obama to change their minds and switch to him.

Why do you think those voters had already decided to vote for Obama? What happened tonight that will change their mind?

 

[Puddles]

You think Romney will win Ohio?

Probably not, which is why I said he "may" have won.

The electoral math is Obama's greatest strength at this point.

 

[thefit]

Do any of u remember the 2008 first debate? It was chicken little then too everyone was freaking out especially if u kept watching the pundits after (turn those damn channels off) and look how things turned out. Romney is on hyper offense because peoples minds are already made up no one wants to take their road again no matter how well he practices and performs its too late.

 

[kaching]

Can we all at least agree that Jim Lehrer did a terrible job as moderator, and he should never moderate a Pres debate again?

He certainly helped make Romney's case for cutting PBS funding.

 

[ErasureAcer]

You're nuts, and just following the media narrative. Sure Romney did pretty well, I'll admit. Perhaps he won (mostly on the fact that the American public is fucking stupid and will buy snake oil from a sleezebag shit-stain like Romney), yeah. He didn't spank him, though, come the fuck on.

Thought you were working and couldn't see it until later? Listen on the radio?

 

[el retorno]

CNN's live reaction from women shows they don't really buy Romney.

 

[PhoenixDark]

You think Romney will win Ohio?

What evidence is there to believe Romney cannot regain traction there? Obama's entire lead is based on being definitively ahead in Ohio and barely ahead in Virginia. Those things can't change in a month?

 

[reilo]

CNN saying that Romney and Obama's favorables remain essentially unchanged


yup, this race is over for Obama. GAMECHANGER#

You're telling me that, just the day before, the electorate still didn't buy Romney's bullshit? My god. Who would have thought?

 

[RDreamer]

Thought you were working and couldn't see it until later? Listen on the radio?

Yeah, got to listen on my phone. So I guess I didn't see them, and I missed a few seconds here and there (but I've seen a lot of replay videos to fill in those tiny gaps).

 

[speculawyer]

He certainly helped make Romney's case for cutting PBS funding.

Best zinger of the night!

 

[metalslimer]

Probably not, which is why I said he "may" have won.

The electoral math is Obama's greatest strength at this point.

It's pretty much the only thing that matters at this point as the that lead is almost insurmountable no matter how much Romney crushes Obama in the debates.

 

[TheHeretic]

You're nuts, and just following the media narrative. Sure Romney did pretty well, I'll admit. Perhaps he won (mostly on the fact that the American public is fucking stupid and will buy snake oil from a sleezebag shit-stain like Romney), yeah. He didn't spank him, though, come the fuck on.

It wasn't how good Romney was (although he was very good) it was how dismal Obama was. I don't see how these debates are without affect when the result was that one sided. I'm not following any narrative I know of, i'm a pretty good debater myself and I have a lot of respect for the craft - the facts matter, but the presentation matters more. Most important is the ability to land blows on your opponent, and Obama barely landed a punch.

His team filled his head full of bullshit facts nobody cares about, he should have mauled Romney for switching his campaign policies completely. These people are fighting for the most powerful position in the world, they should plan for everything and Romneys plan of attack was hardly out of left field. He will say anything to become president, and thats what you attack him on.

 

[speculawyer]

You think Romney will win Ohio?

What evidence is there to believe Romney cannot regain traction there? Obama's entire lead is based on being definitively ahead in Ohio and barely ahead in Virginia? Those things can't change in a month?

I'll note you couldn't answer the question. You know he won't win Ohio. The Bain capital stuff and Let Detroit Go Bankrupt stuff has him in a hole he can't recover from there.

 

[el retorno]

Damn watching the cnn replay. Obama killed among colorado women.

 

[RustyNails]

What evidence is there to believe Romney cannot regain traction there? Obama's entire lead is based on being definitively ahead in Ohio and barely ahead in Virginia? Those things can't change in a month?

Show me a Presidential poll in history where a challenger magically gained a +7 point swing in Ohio. Obama has about as much chance of losing PA as he does OH. Obama is solid as fuck in Wisconsin, NH and Iowa. Game over. Now shut the fuck up.

 

[TheHeretic]

Show me a Presidential poll in history where a challenger magically gained a +7 point swing in Ohio. Obama has about as much chance of losing PA as he does OH. Obama is solid as fuck in Wisconsin, NH and Iowa. Game over. Now shut the fuck up.

Ohio is whats saving him, but falling apart on the debate stage is no way to win a campaign. Its a lot closer than it ever should have been - this was the time to put Romney out for good and he failed.

 

[Zabka]

I want Erin Burnett pics please. How did I miss this?

I don't think that's going to happen in the current political climate. You'll just have to track down the creepy newslady blogs.

Damn watching the cnn replay. Obama killed among colorado women.

It's funny that media idea of how debates are won or lost has become so ingrained with people that voters will say "I disagree with everything he said but he won because he looked presidential".

And it doesn't affect how they vote at all.

 

[Officerrob]

What evidence is there to believe Romney cannot regain traction there? Obama's entire lead is based on being definitively ahead in Ohio and barely ahead in Virginia. Those things can't change in a month?

Asking questions while ignoring those posed to him, you should run for office

 

[Incognito]

people are actually getting upset at PD and losing their cool?!

 

[el retorno]

people are actually getting upset at PD and losing their cool?!

yes, its sad. he should have your tag.

 

[reilo]

Ok PD and Puddles.

Tell me, which states does Romney flip based on this debate to win the presidency?

[B]Colorado[/B]
Polling average	48.7	45.4	Obama +3.3

[B]Florida[/B]
Polling average	48.3	46.1	Obama +2.2

[B]Iowa[/B]
Polling average	48.5	44.3	Obama +4.2

[B]Nevada[/B]
Polling average	49.7	44.6	Obama +5.1

[B]Ohio[/B]
Polling average	49.5	43.9	Obama +5.6

[B]Virginia[/B]
Polling average	48.2	44.6	Obama +3.6

Note: those are ALL of the polling averages, and not the most recent ones which are even moreso +Obama.

 

[markatisu]

people are actually getting upset at PD and losing their cool?!

He is having one of the greatest nights of his life I think

 

[metalslimer]

Ohio is whats saving him, but falling apart on the debate stage is no way to win a campaign. Its a lot closer than it ever should have been - this was the time to put Romney out for good and he failed.

And it honestly at this point it doesn't matter. Obama just has to give a mediocre performance in all the debates and he will still wipe the electoral floor with Romney. Obama has pretty much created an insurmountable lead (yes PD Romney can't turn Ohio) and will just coast his way through the next month while being aggressive when needs to.

 

[RustyNails]

Ohio is whats saving him, but falling apart on the debate stage is no way to win a campaign. Its a lot closer than it ever should have been - this was the time to put Romney out for good and he failed.

Instead of dying a quick death he will now die a a long, agonizing death. This isn't the game changer you're making it out to be. Election still hinges on economy or Obama getting caught doing something stupid.

 

[Aaron Strife]

He is having one of the greatest nights of his life I think

I remember feeling pretty good in 2010. Reality came crashing down fairly quick.

I still stand by my 332-206 map. This cake is baked, PD's acting like Obama was caught with his dick out on stage.

 

[Loudninja]

Ohio is whats saving him, but falling apart on the debate stage is no way to win a campaign. Its a lot closer than it ever should have been - this was the time to put Romney out for good and he failed.

Haha man you guys are killing me with the jokes.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Missed the entire thing as I was at the Yankees game (priorities, people), but I see TPM's impression is that Obama got rolled on style at least. Was there anything that seemed like a watershed moment or possible turning point (for either candidate)? Nothing really obvious seems to be mentioned.

If there's little to hang onto in terms of soundbites other than "Romney sounded good, Obama sounded bad" I suspect it won't cause much movement in the polls. But it will be interesting to see what happens over the next week for sure.

 

[tranciful]

Obama didn't always have this lead. If he can gain the lead, he can lose the lead. It might take something like a euro crisis, but it's foolish to rule out the possibility that things could turn around when we have over a month before the election.

 

[kaching]

Best zinger of the night!

Speaking of, we were promised zingers, weren't we? The Romney campaign said he was going to bring the zingers. I can only think of one time that I actually thought, "hehe, that was a good one!" but I already forgot what the actual zinger was.

 

[metalslimer]

I remember feeling pretty good in 2010. Reality came crashing down fairly quick.

Never at any point in 2010 did I feel good with how the Obamacare thing went and the rising strength of the tea party.

but it's foolish to rule out the possibility that things could turn around when we have over a month before the election.

So we should be worried about some mythical apocalypse?

 

[Trakdown]

So Romney's basically where John Kerry was in 2004?

 

[Loudninja]

Obama didn't always have this lead. If he can gain the lead, he can lose the lead. It might take something like a euro crisis, but it's foolish to rule out the possibility that things could turn around when we have over a month before the election.

Dude its really late in the game and several of the swing states are already voting.

 

[Allard]

What evidence is there to believe Romney cannot regain traction there? Obama's entire lead is based on being definitively ahead in Ohio and barely ahead in Virginia. Those things can't change in a month?

I know this is your 'schtick' but its much, much more then just Ohio and Virginia. If Obama wins either of those states Romney has to essentially win EVERY SINGLE "SWING STATE". Romney is currently losing every single swing state worth a damn going into this debate, a lot of which are by 4+ points. The best outlier example of a single debate affecting the election is 3.92 points and almost entirely from undecided voters. Obama has already reached the 50%+ threshold in a lot of the swing states and Romney has competition from libertarian wings in Virginia. The only thing that is going to change the election at this point is Obama doing something stupid that would change voter opinion of him or an unforeseen event that somehow makes him look bad. That didn't happen in this debate so its not going to change the election much other then tighten the polls but not actually make a difference with the outcome.

 

[electricpirate]

I missed the second half, but Obama looked stronger in the first to me. Romney got destroyed on his tax plan and Obama looked confident and gracious. Either way unless I missed a total meltdown it seemed like a draw at worst for Obama. Do I just see things differently or did i miss something in the back half?

 

[RDreamer]

It wasn't how good Romney was (although he was very good) it was how dismal Obama was. I don't see how these debates are without affect when the result was that one sided. I'm not following any narrative I know of, i'm a pretty good debater myself and I have a lot of respect for the craft - the facts matter, but the presentation matters more. Most important is the ability to land blows on your opponent, and Obama barely landed a punch.

His team filled his head full of bullshit facts nobody cares about, he should have mauled Romney for switching his campaign policies completely. These people are fighting for the most powerful position in the world, they should plan for everything and Romneys plan of attack was hardly out of left field. He will say anything to become president, and thats what you attack him on.

I think he landed a few punches "a few weeks before the election now his big bold new plan is... nevermind." That sort of thing. So, he did hit him on it. Yeah, he didn't go hard, sure, but he did attack.

I think it would have possibly been a mistake to go hard. He can't look angry, and he can't look like an asshole. He had to stay reserved in this debate, especially because Romney kept that tone. Had he come out attacking Romney ferociously after some of those comments he'd look awful.

 

[Officerrob]

Obama didn't always have this lead. If he can gain the lead, he can lose the lead. It might take something like a euro crisis, but it's foolish to rule out the possibility that things could turn around when we have over a month before the election.

We have found PD's alt account

 

[HylianTom]

So Romney's basically where John Kerry was in 2004?

That's being generous. I still think Obama tops 300EVs. My previous prediction was somewhere in the 320/330s, so maybe we'll see a slight tightening?

 

[Aaron Strife]

Never at any point in 2010 did I feel good with how the Obamacare thing went and the rising strength of the tea party.

What can I say, I was young and dumb.

Also love how PD tries to sell Obama's current lead in the polls as Ohio. Well sure, that's a fairly big piece of the puzzle, except he's got solid leads in every other swing state, except North Carolina which is tied and he doesn't need anyway.

CNN's poll that had Romney winning the debate handily saw neither of the candidates' images change. Romney won the debate, too bad voters don't really care.

 

[pigeon]

Missed the entire thing as I was at the Yankees game (priorities, people), but I see TPM's impression is that Obama got rolled on style at least. Was there anything that seemed like a watershed moment or possible turning point (for either candidate)? Nothing really obvious seems to be mentioned.

If there's little to hang onto in terms of soundbites other than "Romney sounded good, Obama sounded bad" I suspect it won't cause much movement in the polls. But it will be interesting to see what happens over the next week for sure.

It was the latter. There were a few Romney soundbites that you should expect to see in the papers -- "you said you'd cut the deficit and doubled it" is the one I already caught in somebody's report. There were a few Romney soundbites for negative ads as well. But nothing to hold onto with regards to Obama, and nothing anybody is going to put on Romney's wikipedia page.

 

[Red Blaster]

Missed the entire thing as I was at the Yankees game (priorities, people), but I see TPM's impression is that Obama got rolled on style at least. Was there anything that seemed like a watershed moment or possible turning point (for either candidate)? Nothing really obvious seems to be mentioned.

If there's little to hang onto in terms of soundbites other than "Romney sounded good, Obama sounded bad" I suspect it won't cause much movement in the polls. But it will be interesting to see what happens over the next week for sure.

Romney was on point but was lying his ass off while Obama was slow and rusty

most of the angst comes from Obama not dishing the zingers