10 Point shift in every poll incoming 538-0 Willard
That's my governor!!!Hey, Governor @MittRomney, Maryland schools are #1 and have been for the last four years in a row. #Debates
http://twitter.com/GovernorOMalley/status/253681044849561600
Even Obama's spin people aren't denying what happened. Tonight was the night Obama could have clearly closed the door on this election. Instead it was Bush Kerry redux, what the fuck.
The post-debate polls will be VERY interesting.
Thank you.Yes, I agree; for all the chicken littles in here, let's look at the facts again, shall we?
Something approaching statistical significance in one case.
The sum of the parts is the whole. If it only shifts national polls nominally, it's going manifest similarly in state polls.I'm not concerned about national polls. There are swing states right now that are still determining who to support - that's what I'm concerned about.
@EWErickson
CNN post debate poll said Romney looked like a better leader by 58%.
Even Obama's spin people aren't denying what happened. Tonight was the night Obama could have clearly closed the door on this election. Instead it was Bush Kerry redux, what the fuck.
The post-debate polls will be VERY interesting.
https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/253699880609005568@NateSilver
I'd be surprised if tonight didn't move the head to head polls some (in Romney's direction)
With Republicans winning filibuster-proof, two-thirds majority in the Senate and a two-thirds majority in the House.
Demopocalypse.
Yes. Troll us for all it's worth. Savor it. Tonight is your night.
Nate is great with numbers and data, but he's not good at political analysis.
Will I need to start drinking to get through this thread for the next month? Dear lord...
???? romney won the debate. it is not bold to say that his poll numbers might improve as a result.
Again, shit like this shouldn't be called until the next day.
Saying the debates historically don't matter is simply a deflection of the fact that Obama did a horrible job, in what nearly everybody in this thread thought would be utter destruction for Romney. In fact, if we went through the posts before the debate, I remember seeing a lot of "Romney can't debate, he floundered in the primaries, Obama has years of experience, et al."
There is not one potentially positive thing that came out of tonight for the Obama camp.
Yes. Troll us for all it's worth. Savor it. Tonight is your night.
PD is really boring me now.
???? romney won the debate. it is not bold to say that his poll numbers might improve as a result.
yea ok whatever The complete denial of reality here is stunning. Obama looked completely lost, and EVERY poll shows that.
Let me get this straight: you guys believe there is no way Obama loses this election (barring some colossal event/scandal/etc). Debates don't matter, the campaign doesn't matter, nothing matters - Obama is up, and will stay up. He's ahead in swing states, and will remain ahead in swing states.
Obama winning in of itself would be a reversal of previous trends: presidents with bad economies and 8% unemployment usually don't get re-elected. He's currently on the path to proving that trend wrong. Yet you guys cannot acknowledge that we could instead see another reversal of a trend: the candidate ahead at this point almost always wins.
yea ok whatever The complete denial of reality here is stunning. Obama looked completely lost, and EVERY poll shows that.
Let me get this straight: you guys believe there is no way Obama loses this election (barring some colossal event/scandal/etc). Debates don't matter, the campaign doesn't matter, nothing matters - Obama is up, and will stay up. He's ahead in swing states, and will remain ahead in swing states.
Obama winning in of itself would be a reversal of previous trends: presidents with bad economies and 8% unemployment usually don't get re-elected. He's currently on the path to proving that trend wrong. Yet you guys cannot acknowledge that we could instead see another reversal of a trend: the candidate ahead at this point almost always wins.
yea ok whatever The complete denial of reality here is stunning. Obama looked completely lost, and EVERY poll shows that.
Let me get this straight: you guys believe there is no way Obama loses this election (barring some colossal event/scandal/etc). Debates don't matter, the campaign doesn't matter, nothing matters - Obama is up, and will stay up. He's ahead in swing states, and will remain ahead in swing states.
Obama winning in of itself would be a reversal of previous trends: presidents with bad economies and 8% unemployment usually don't get re-elected. He's currently on the path to proving that trend wrong. Yet you guys cannot acknowledge that we could instead see another reversal of a trend: the candidate ahead at this point almost always wins.
except that it can be done?
CNN is admitting their debate poll leans republican unlike the actual country.
What a bunch of drama queens.
CNN is admitting their debate poll leans republican unlike the actual country.
Have you never done something that felt amazing when you did it but regretted it the next morning? We say he won now, but what if the fact checking of the debate becomes the story? The story might stay the same or it might change.
So what about the following portion of the debate?
(paraphrase)
Obama: Tax cuts for outsourcing jobs
Romney: Really? Damn, I wish my accountant was in on that, would have made bank
Make it an ad.
Here's my take. Anyone who wanted policy from Romney went home empty handed. Obama effectively showed the world that Romney has no plans. His only plan is to repeal Obamacare, repeal Frank Dodd, replace medicare with vouchercare. When Obama paused and asked, the reason why Mitt wasn't sharing his plan is because if it's too good for the middle class, it was the highlight.
Of course the pundits and media whine piss and moan. They wanted fireworks. They wanted 47%, Bain and Outsourcing. Problem is, people already know the answers to those. That's not policy, that's the stuff of ads. Mitt Romney simply won theatrics with his well rehearsed lines and untruths, whereas Obama clearly made his case for reelection.
CNN is admitting their debate poll leans republican unlike the actual country.
CNN saying that Romney and Obama's favorables remain essentially unchanged
yup, this race is over for Obama. GAMECHANGER#