That's the point, Romney had less substance, told more lies, and completely reversed many of his previous statements. But like a really good used car salesman, he did it damn well. We can hope that the Obama campaign and the media will tear apart Romney's statements in the days to come, but tonight he won. His campaign needed this and tonight Romney delivered. In terms of policies discussed, tonight we saw Mitt Romney transform himself into a left leaning democrat. Of course we know this isn't what he's been saying all this time but Obama wasn't clear enough or forceful enough in calling out his bs.
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down
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That's the point, Romney had less substance, told more lies, and completely reversed many of his previous statements. But like a really good used car salesman, he did it damn well. We can hope that the Obama campaign and the media will tear apart Romney's statements in the days to come, but tonight he won. His campaign needed this and tonight Romney delivered. In terms of policies discussed, tonight we saw Mitt Romney transform himself into a left leaning democrat. Of course we know this isn't what he's been saying all this time but Obama wasn't clear enough or forceful enough in calling out his bs.
Aaron Strife
Banned
This is my more cynical side showing, but I wouldn't be surprised if Obama kind of wants to strike a bargain with the GOP on the deficit just so he can secure his own legacy as a moderate reformer like Clinton, even if it means Republicans win the Senate.
Of course, it would be a million times easier to pass such a deal with Democrats running everything (since they're actually open to adding new revenue and whatnot) but it feels like he's been on a snipe hunt for most of his major initiatives, trying to get a few GOP votes so he can call it bipartisan.
It's very similar to Cuomo in NY - he signed off on a redistricting plan that would likely keep the GOP in control of the state senate because he's struck some deals with them and not stepped on anyone's toes. As a result he has like a 70% approval rating. Then again the Democrats in New York's legislature are backstabbing prima donnas (the gay marriage vote in 2010 was horrendous) so I can't blame him I guess.
Of course, it would be a million times easier to pass such a deal with Democrats running everything (since they're actually open to adding new revenue and whatnot) but it feels like he's been on a snipe hunt for most of his major initiatives, trying to get a few GOP votes so he can call it bipartisan.
It's very similar to Cuomo in NY - he signed off on a redistricting plan that would likely keep the GOP in control of the state senate because he's struck some deals with them and not stepped on anyone's toes. As a result he has like a 70% approval rating. Then again the Democrats in New York's legislature are backstabbing prima donnas (the gay marriage vote in 2010 was horrendous) so I can't blame him I guess.
Officerrob
Banned
Yes Romney won the debate, but I'm calling bullshit on every other aspect of that CNN snap poll, look at the internals:
Romney favorable/unfavorable
Before debate:
54% approve
42% disapprove
Where in the world did they find people to give Romney have a +12% favorability advantage? RCP currently has his favorability nationally at -1.2 and the last CNN/Opinion Research poll from less than a week ago had his favorability at 49/50
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/10/03/top12.pdf
Romney favorable/unfavorable
Before debate:
54% approve
42% disapprove
Where in the world did they find people to give Romney have a +12% favorability advantage? RCP currently has his favorability nationally at -1.2 and the last CNN/Opinion Research poll from less than a week ago had his favorability at 49/50
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/10/03/top12.pdf
Nate wrote an article on polling after the debates being strong for Romney, suggesting it's possible he might end up with a three point swing in his favor
Again, any idea how the town hall format might curry favor to either man?
Again, any idea how the town hall format might curry favor to either man?
airmangataosenai
Member
Seriously people...
Yeah. It's fun reading the opinions but everything is pretty well locked down at this point. Obama only had to avoid any obvious mistakes, not beat Romney. He's ahead an average of 4-6 points, of course he's going to play defense.
Black Mamba
Member
Even though they are independents, I believe CNN said those are mostly right-leaners in that sample. It's not a good sample set.
edit: Look at their sample. No liberals, only moderates and conservatives. Everyone is from the South, no midwest voters. This is a completely stacked poll. WTF
anonymous_abc
Member
imho its still disappointing...
Check out some of the crosstabs. Poll's shady as fuck. Under "Did Barack Obama do a better or worse job than you expected?":
Non-Whites: N/A
Under 50: N/A
Liberal: N/A
Northeast, Midwest, West: N/A
Yeah.
TheHeretic
Banned
There haven't been enough presidential elections to create trends. The strongest electoral indicators we have all (GDP, unemployment) show Obama should be losing by default, yet he isn't.
Political science can't really explain the 1992 election either, so stop pretending these charts and graphs are knockout blows to those of us worried this is going to go pear shaped.
Black Mamba
Member
And everyone is over 50 with no liberals in the data! lol! Also, all college graduates or some college.
Fucking trash poll. Yeah, let's poll Old Southern Voters to see their reactions and only theirs.
Trends matter. Bush won in '04 trending up. Reagan in '84. Carter lost trending down as did Ford. Obama is trending up. I think this is worthwhile at looking at. Bush in '92 had Ross Perot. That explains everything.
Officerrob
Banned
Am I reading this right? Only people from the south, nobody under age 50, an no "non-whites" were polled?
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/10/03/top12.pdf
PhoenixDark
Banned
A three point swing would turn this into a toss up race correct?
Officerrob
Banned
Nationally yes, electorally no. Nate Silver also cited that CNN poll which turns out is absolute trash
Hobbestetrician
Member
If I understand the Meta-Margin at PEC correctly, he says it will take over a 6-point swing to turn it into a toss-up electorally.
And Romney has had a sub-standard bounce from both his VP pick and his convention so I don't know why his debate will buck that trend.
Aaron Strife
Banned
In fairness, his convention was pretty awful, while his debate was solid.
Still don't think he gets a bounce though. Nate's forecast actually accounts for the race tightening anyway, so the bounce would need to be pretty profound to have an effect on his odds there.
Those were both major events though.
Rocket Scientist
Member
I guess this is their first successful reboot. Very disappointed with Obama, but maybe this was the best way to go about these debates. Hopefully Biden goes rogue and factcheckers call Romney out hard.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
Finally, a legitimately unskewed poll!
Rocket Scientist
Member
I can't believe they did this. Whoever signed off on this needs to take some time off. A long time off. It's frustrating that these 'news' organisation's can do anything yet retain their credibility among the masses.
Officerrob
Banned
I'm legitimately shocked that they released a poll of southern, white, completely non-liberal, all having attended college, people over 50 years old and thought it was OK.
I wouldn't call this a successful reboot until he's proven that nationally, he can gain traction and stay on message while actually giving details about his own platform. We'll need a few days to see what pans out. Obama needs to improve regardless, but I'm sure he's gotten an earful of that from some of his advisors if he didn't think that himself.
Here's the big question: Did Governor Romney successfully "re-introduce" himself to the electorate today?
There's no doubt we saw a very different Romney today in terms of performance and, more importantly, policy. Will it stick? Or will he walk it back like he did with the mini dream act? Will dems successfully point out that all the contradictions Romney made compared to his past statements?
There's no doubt we saw a very different Romney today in terms of performance and, more importantly, policy. Will it stick? Or will he walk it back like he did with the mini dream act? Will dems successfully point out that all the contradictions Romney made compared to his past statements?
Yep, scouring the blogosphere it seems essentially unanimous that the Chairman lost. The headlines tomorrow are gonna be REALLY unpleasant for the Obama campaign. I just got home and I haven't seen the debate yet, but reading what everyone's saying, I'm astonished at what the fuck happened.
The best way that I can spin this at the moment is suggesting that maybe Obama intentionally lost the debate today so that he could destroy Romney later?
The best way that I can spin this at the moment is suggesting that maybe Obama intentionally lost the debate today so that he could destroy Romney later?
Overreactions mostly.
A whole 430 of them too!
What do you have against Real America?
iamshadowlark
Banned
Romney really didn't do that well. I would give him a C+. Bams C or C-.
Aaron Strife
Banned
In fairness this is probably representative of the people who still use the debates as a way to make up their minds, rather than cheerleading the candidate they know they'd be voting for four years ago.
Debates long ago stopped being about actual issues, now it's all about cheap one-liners and looking good in front of a camera. There was a time before the internet where the debates were the one time we could compare and contrast the candidates, now thanks to twitter and blogs and news sites we have access to every public statement made by Obama and Romney on every issue. Other than Romney's weird flip-flops on tax cuts there was no new information on either candidate's platform we learned from the debate.
I'm not saying debates don't have their place, since it's still the easiest method to directly contrast two candidates (when they're standing on stage and get to respond to one another directly), but it's not the make-or-break moment of a presidential campaign anymore.
Officerrob
Banned
I'd give Romney a B-, and Obama a D. The loss was all Obama's doing though, as Romney left himself open for attacks numerous times and Obama just let them go. Obama also seemed bored and disinterested. Pundits are proclaiming how Romney was great, but he screwed-up Medicare pretty badly.
i only heard a small portion of the debate (the 20 minute part regarding medicare/health care), but i hope it lights a fire under obama's butt.
i had predicted the first debate would have gone to romney. i also predicted biden will lose to ryan, but i wonder if they'll let biden be as energetic as he wants to be to show there's some life in the campaign.
iamshadowlark
Banned
B- for what exactly? I've watched the whole debate, and I can find hardly anything of substance that he said.
Black Mamba
Member
The VP debate won't matter for shit. The only time it ever mattered was Palin because of who she was. Nobody cares about the VP debate but idiots like us.
polyh3dron
Banned
Ryan is going to get destroyed though.. There could be some splash damage on Mitt if it's bad enough.
That is a fair criticism. The data is insufficient to yield robust estimates. So there's always the possibility of an aberrant result. But until that actually transpires, the inchoate trends offer a reasonable basis for extrapolation. As for the strong electoral indicators, which seems an incongruous distinction if your argument rejects the trends, the data is mixed. But it indicates a modest advantage for Obama.
Also, political science accounts for 1992 reasonably well. Bush still suffered from the residual effects of the recession which preceded his reelection year. The most unusual cycle was 2000 which diverged from expectations and Gore appreciably underperformed.
So, no. It's not a knockout punch. But it's something to cling to like guns and religion.
If anything it would be a (reverse) Reagan that Obama would be emulating in that Reagan worked with a majority Democratic congress. At least that is who Obama constantly compares himself to. Lincoln and Reagan. Its almost as if the only Democratic President to ever take office after an economic meltdown of the scale of 2008 didn't even exist for him. I hope I'm just being paranoid though.
Also, I already dislike Andrew Cuomo, and I'm glad I'm not the only one to notice something fishy about the CNN poll. I can't say I'm surprised though. That networks been complete trash at least since the late 90's.
What bothers me more than Obama's worst debate -- actually, political -- performance since uh, 2007, isn't actually the debate itself. It's what everyone was saying before the debate. An uber-conservative, young, FM talk radio host (his show replayed after the debate) really made me realize it the best. This guy (wish I remembered his name) was no doubt the textbook example of the far right, tea party loving lunatic that will cling to anything to make Obama look bad, no matter how out of touch and crazy it is. Yet even he was coming down hard on Mitt because it's as though he was expecting him to fail. This is how bad Mitt was doing before the debate. He completely lost faith in the GOP nominee and might as well have started praying for a miracle on air.
But it wasn't just the extremists, the squeaky clean GOPers basically all but gave up on Mitt in advance also. Obama was expected to put this thing away -- and really, he should have. You could practically feel it in the air. Next thing you know, he totally bombs the first debate like he's still Senator Obama in the primary. Why? Obama had so much momentum on his side. He had Mitt coming off an entire month of potential progress erased by the 47% recording. He should have had all the confidence in the world and should have not hesitated to go for the juglar when pressured. Everyone knows he has plenty of things to talk about for when his back is up against the wall, and he didn't turn to any of them.
Now, I understand wanting to play it safe. Don't make any gaffes, don't do anything too bold, you are in a good position nationally according to polls. Fine. But even by listening to the audio, he wasn't just being careful. He lost control. There's a fine line between playing it cool and starting to take yourself out of the game. He crossed it quite a bit. Obama was no doubt nervous and frantically going through his mental file cabinet, restructuring his talking points and arguments on the fly, surely feeling flabbergasted. I don't think I've ever heard him do such a bad job, at least not since the primary with Hillary. This might have been even worse. I don't think Obama spent any time preparing for this. And man, this proves now more than ever that John Kerry isn't good for anything when it comes to politics, even as a debate dummy.
And based on what video I've already seen, Obama was often looking down, almost looking like he was being shunned, while Mitt instead stared Obama down during every talking point. This is just bad for an incumbent. It reeks of Carter vs. Reagan. You don't want anything remotely close to that shit. It's bad, bad, bad for perception politics, and we all know Americans love that.
Why did he not bring up 47%? He had plenty of opportunites to interject with that as Mitt talked about how much he supposedly cares about helping poor folks.
Why did he not call him out on the blatant lies about the $90b or whatever phony figure it was for green initiatives? Seriously, wtf Obama? Really?
Why was he not more aggressive in clearly defining Obamacare as the exact same thing as Romneycare? Mitt actually made it sound like his plan is fundamentally different and for the better. If I didn't pay attention to politics I'd have probably believed every word Mitt said. This is bad. This was supposed to be something that Obama was to be prepared for since he signed the fucking thing into law. The thing his folks have been bragging about for eons now, saying Romney will have no credibility with this argument. Guess what guys? Romney just evaporated all of that shit.
And -- this one not only upset me but flat out pissed me off -- why did Obama let Romney get away with Paul Ryan's lovely Medicare talking point (you know, the $716b gutted because of omg Obamacare)? Are you fucking kidding me? If memory serves, Romney spewed it out of his mouth at least three times. That gave Obama three chances -- and boy did he like milking the clock -- to debunk that bullshit, and he instead opted to go off on some nuanced point that was in dire need of simplification for a 90 minute debate.
We are far removed from the days where a convention or a debate is going to give someone a 15+ point bump. But the problem is that Obama was well within reach of practically putting this election away. Instead, he gave Romney a second chance. The entire month of September was like a gift for the Obama campaign and they completely wasted it. Completely.
I'm also not too confident in Obama's campaign at this point. David Axelrod was quite dismissive and frankly ignorant on CNN. "Oh yeah yeah the challenger always gets a bump, lol, we expected this." Like it didn't even matter that Obama basically rolled over. It does. It's like they aren't even aware of how badly Obama performed, which makes me worry about the next two debates. Stephanie Cutter on either CNN or MSNBC was really frantic, I will say. She was trying to stay calm, but you could hear her voice trembling. She knew this was a bad night.
Obama should do better in a town hall, but he was supposed to do better here, too -- even if marginally. At a minimum, that's all he needed. But he let Romney completely walk all over him. All Obama basically had to do was show up and spew out the counters to Mitt's same old bullshit, and instead he acted like he never heard them before.
I think you are going to see more tightening in polls than anticipated, and it could take a state like FL or even OH off the table if Mitt can keep the momentum up. The snapshot polls taken afterwards, even if not the most accurate in comparison to what we'll be seeing from the various pollsters in the next few days, are not encouraging signs whatsoever. Go down the list, Obama failed on damn near everything. It energized the GOP, no doubt. Democrats are really disappointed, which isn't what you want as election day gets closer.
And, you know, given how badly Romney fucked up over the past few weeks, I have a feeling he's going to grab this thing by the horns and not let go until election night. He was all but completely knocked out of the race and he just got himself a second life, just like Reagan did.
Everyone in here who supports Obama should be worried. He needs to go into the town hall swinging (at Mitt, of course). It doesn't mean he lost the election yet, but the important thing here is that it changes the narrative a bit and puts Mitt back in the game as being at least somewhat politically astute.
Frankly, I'm disappointed in the President. I don't even think he cared.
But it wasn't just the extremists, the squeaky clean GOPers basically all but gave up on Mitt in advance also. Obama was expected to put this thing away -- and really, he should have. You could practically feel it in the air. Next thing you know, he totally bombs the first debate like he's still Senator Obama in the primary. Why? Obama had so much momentum on his side. He had Mitt coming off an entire month of potential progress erased by the 47% recording. He should have had all the confidence in the world and should have not hesitated to go for the juglar when pressured. Everyone knows he has plenty of things to talk about for when his back is up against the wall, and he didn't turn to any of them.
Now, I understand wanting to play it safe. Don't make any gaffes, don't do anything too bold, you are in a good position nationally according to polls. Fine. But even by listening to the audio, he wasn't just being careful. He lost control. There's a fine line between playing it cool and starting to take yourself out of the game. He crossed it quite a bit. Obama was no doubt nervous and frantically going through his mental file cabinet, restructuring his talking points and arguments on the fly, surely feeling flabbergasted. I don't think I've ever heard him do such a bad job, at least not since the primary with Hillary. This might have been even worse. I don't think Obama spent any time preparing for this. And man, this proves now more than ever that John Kerry isn't good for anything when it comes to politics, even as a debate dummy.
And based on what video I've already seen, Obama was often looking down, almost looking like he was being shunned, while Mitt instead stared Obama down during every talking point. This is just bad for an incumbent. It reeks of Carter vs. Reagan. You don't want anything remotely close to that shit. It's bad, bad, bad for perception politics, and we all know Americans love that.
Why did he not bring up 47%? He had plenty of opportunites to interject with that as Mitt talked about how much he supposedly cares about helping poor folks.
Why did he not call him out on the blatant lies about the $90b or whatever phony figure it was for green initiatives? Seriously, wtf Obama? Really?
Why was he not more aggressive in clearly defining Obamacare as the exact same thing as Romneycare? Mitt actually made it sound like his plan is fundamentally different and for the better. If I didn't pay attention to politics I'd have probably believed every word Mitt said. This is bad. This was supposed to be something that Obama was to be prepared for since he signed the fucking thing into law. The thing his folks have been bragging about for eons now, saying Romney will have no credibility with this argument. Guess what guys? Romney just evaporated all of that shit.
And -- this one not only upset me but flat out pissed me off -- why did Obama let Romney get away with Paul Ryan's lovely Medicare talking point (you know, the $716b gutted because of omg Obamacare)? Are you fucking kidding me? If memory serves, Romney spewed it out of his mouth at least three times. That gave Obama three chances -- and boy did he like milking the clock -- to debunk that bullshit, and he instead opted to go off on some nuanced point that was in dire need of simplification for a 90 minute debate.
We are far removed from the days where a convention or a debate is going to give someone a 15+ point bump. But the problem is that Obama was well within reach of practically putting this election away. Instead, he gave Romney a second chance. The entire month of September was like a gift for the Obama campaign and they completely wasted it. Completely.
I'm also not too confident in Obama's campaign at this point. David Axelrod was quite dismissive and frankly ignorant on CNN. "Oh yeah yeah the challenger always gets a bump, lol, we expected this." Like it didn't even matter that Obama basically rolled over. It does. It's like they aren't even aware of how badly Obama performed, which makes me worry about the next two debates. Stephanie Cutter on either CNN or MSNBC was really frantic, I will say. She was trying to stay calm, but you could hear her voice trembling. She knew this was a bad night.
Obama should do better in a town hall, but he was supposed to do better here, too -- even if marginally. At a minimum, that's all he needed. But he let Romney completely walk all over him. All Obama basically had to do was show up and spew out the counters to Mitt's same old bullshit, and instead he acted like he never heard them before.
I think you are going to see more tightening in polls than anticipated, and it could take a state like FL or even OH off the table if Mitt can keep the momentum up. The snapshot polls taken afterwards, even if not the most accurate in comparison to what we'll be seeing from the various pollsters in the next few days, are not encouraging signs whatsoever. Go down the list, Obama failed on damn near everything. It energized the GOP, no doubt. Democrats are really disappointed, which isn't what you want as election day gets closer.
And, you know, given how badly Romney fucked up over the past few weeks, I have a feeling he's going to grab this thing by the horns and not let go until election night. He was all but completely knocked out of the race and he just got himself a second life, just like Reagan did.
Everyone in here who supports Obama should be worried. He needs to go into the town hall swinging (at Mitt, of course). It doesn't mean he lost the election yet, but the important thing here is that it changes the narrative a bit and puts Mitt back in the game as being at least somewhat politically astute.
Frankly, I'm disappointed in the President. I don't even think he cared.
Substantively, it wouldn't matter if Romney got an F+. Without even watching the debates (yet) and judging by everyone's reaction, I can hazard a guess that the main reason everyone's giving Romney the win was cause of the fact that he APPEARED to come off as someone who knew what he was talking about.
Officerrob
Banned
The majority of people arn't looking for substance or would be confused/bored by it. He gets a B- for spouting bullshit and not getting called on it. By Obama not calling him on it, it legitimized all lies he was saying.
speculawyer
Member
You know what zinger did flop . . . "Trickle down government". WTF does that even mean?
It doesn't matter what we think. It matters what the general public thinks. I think it's easy to see how the general public would say Romney won this debate. What he said was easy to understand, even if it lacked any substance. If someone isn't very happy with the current administration, they want to hear "yes I will fix this" even if there's no specific plan in place.
eBay Huckster
Member
I'm actually wondering why 1984 and 1976 aren't included in that chart (1980 already having been addressed multiple times in here - all that debate did was make a laugher even worse). Less polling data available?
These debates have never really run on substance, that much is clear: "there you go again", Mondale's inexperience, Bernard Shaw being a shitheel, Perot being Perot, the sigh, the "bulge"...
...and, well, this.
eBay Huckster
Member
How many times is this going to need to be posted before people stop fucking repeating it
Officerrob
Banned
To put things into a little perspective, I just spoke to my brother who didn't watch the debate, and all he has heard is that Romney wants to get rid of Big Bird. Apparently it spread over twitter like wildfire
Officerrob
Banned
He was very strong at the beginning
eBay Huckster
Member
Very strong in the beginning, he comes down quite a bit (but not TOO much) by the end
Would the grades given look different from people who does not refer to Obama as "Bams", do you think? I think so.
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