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[PhoenixDark]

Oh shi

I was referencing today's polls, not the jobs numbers. That's what I'm waiting to get Silver's extended opinion on

 

[Dan]

I was already seeing conspiracy theories about the unemployment numbers when I woke up and checked Facebook.

 

[CharlieDigital]

Allen West

I agree with former GE CEO Jack Welch, Chicago style politics is at work here. Somehow by manipulation of data we are all of a sudden below 8 percent unemployment, a month from the Presidential election. This is Orwellian to say the least and representative of Saul Alinsky tactics from the book "Rules for Radicals"- a must read for all who want to know how the left strategize . Trust the Obama administration? Sure, and the spontaneous reaction to a video caused the death of our Ambassador......and pigs fly.

LOL

The thing is, if Obama had the ability to "cook the numbers", he could have cooked them at any point in time. No need to wait until now.

 

[Byakuya769]

The thing is, if Obama had the ability to "cook the numbers", he could have cooked them at any point in time. No need to wait until now.

He thought he was going to win the election despite his job killing policies. Then Romney fucked him up in a debate, and he got scared.

 

[CharlieDigital]

He thought he was going to win the election despite his job killing policies. Then Romney fucked him up in a debate, and he got scared.

Oh okay, it all makes sense now!

 

[Officerrob]

PD has become the boxer who keeps going back to the ring when he's far past his prime because it's the only thing he knows how to do. I'm sure Roy Jones Jr. and Evander Holyfield would even tell him to hang it up and start being a real poster again.

 

[brianmcdoogle]

PD has become the boxer who keeps going back to the ring when he's far past his prime because it's the only thing he knows how to do. I'm sure Roy Jones Jr. and Evander Holyfield would even tell him to hang it up and start being a real poster again.

So if 2008 was his Rocky I, then 2012 will be Rocky II.

 

[The Librarian]

I was referencing today's polls, not the jobs numbers. That's what I'm waiting to get Silver's extended opinion on

He says don't pay any attention to 'em. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...ls/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

 

[adamsappel]

Are the people in the picture supposed to be in an unemployment line? It's nice that they dressed up and most of them get to sit down.

 

[Tim-E]

So if 2008 was his Rocky I, then 2012 will be Rocky II.

I don't want to imagine his Rocky V.

 

[saelz8]

Here's video of Allen West on CNBC, doubling down on Obama cooking the numbrs

How is this guy an elected official?

 

[PhoenixDark]

He says don't pay any attention to 'em. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...ls/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

I'm not foolish enough to believe the debate is impacting polls already. My argument has been that Romney is gaining ground, and this is reflected by today's Ras and WAA polls of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia.

 

[Diablos]

Is the Gallup polls taken after the debate.

Is our children learning

You're fretting over a misconception of undecided voters. You perceive undecided voters to be indecisive, malleable dullards who vote on caprice. However, many undecided voters have partisan dispositions which filter the media narrative bugaboo. Lynn Vavrick of YouGov, who I've cited here before, has been writing a series of articles for the NYT on undecided voters. And the data belies your misconception. At most, you're describing a minuscule segment of the population. Really, that you believe a swath of voters who've ignored Obama for four years suddenly developed an interest in politics bespeaks how warped your perception's become.

Okay then, fair enough.

Still, Obama barfing on himself for 90 minutes straight in the most watched Presidential debate since 1992 is hard to ignore. Perhaps (and hopefully) it's becoming more of a personal thing for me more than anything else. It was so easy for Obama to just debunk all his crap and he instead performed so very poorly. Do you think Gore still did worse? He sure sighed and grunted a lot more than Obama, but overall, I think Obama's head was almost totally out of the game. He struggled to make simple talking points.

If he simply would have showed up, these UE/job numbers combined with a respectable debate performance on his behalf would have likely put this thing away. Now we have dat narrative, etc.

 

[Tim-E]

I'm not foolish enough to believe the debate is impacting polls already. My argument has been that Romney is gaining ground, and this is reflected by today's Ras and WAA polls of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia.

Pretty sure Nate's said that the model already accounts for Romney getting a bump post-debate.

 

[Officerrob]

Pretty sure Nate's said that the model already accounts for Romney getting a bump post-debate.

He did, but you might as well be talking to a wall

 

[Souldriver]

I'm not foolish enough to believe the debate is impacting polls already. My argument has been that Romney is gaining ground, and this is reflected by today's Ras and WAA polls of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia.

Not to interrupt your shitty trolling game, but this post doesn't even make sense.

"I'm not foolish enough to believe the debate is impacting polls. I'm saying Romney is gaining based on these post-debate polls."

 

[Snake]

Mccain thinks the numbers are cooked

If true, McCain just lost all [remaining] respect.

Mainstream media needs to pushback against these jobbers aggressively.

 

[DataStream]

If true, McCain just lost all [remaining] respect.

Mainstream media needs to pushback against these jobbers aggressively.

On CNBC they have been for the most part, watch the Alan West bit above... its pretty brutal.

 

[Mercury Fred]

If true, McCain just lost all [remaining] respect.

Mainstream media needs to pushback against these jobbers aggressively.

That whore has no self-respect left to burn.

 

[Byakuya769]

Not to interrupt your shitty trolling game, but this post doesn't even make sense.

"I'm not foolish enough to believe the debate is impacting polls. I'm saying Romney is gaining based on these post-debate polls."

He means to say that he was gaining ground before the debate.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Not to interrupt your shitty trolling game, but this post doesn't even make sense.

"I'm not foolish enough to believe the debate is impacting polls. I'm saying Romney is gaining based on these post-debate polls."

Those post debate polls don't fully take the debate into account though, so you can't really use them to measure its impact...

Next week there will be plenty of polls measuring exactly how the debate played out.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I'm not foolish enough to believe the debate is impacting polls already. My argument has been that Romney is gaining ground, and this is reflected by today's Ras and WAA polls of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia.

Romney's gaining ground in Rasmussen? Shocking

I wonder if today's bad jobs numbers will show up in the polls too, oh wait

 

[gcubed]

PD... you're just boring now. You may have peaked with your psychoanalysis

 

[SuperBonk]

If true, McCain just lost all [remaining] respect.

It feels like this has been said about McCain multiple times now since August 29, 2008.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Interesting how Rasmussen's poll of Virginia showing Romney leading by 1 has Tim Kaine leading by 7 at 52-45. I say interesting because everyone was saying his goose was cooked after he turned in a crummy debate performance.

I wonder which side of the poll the right-wing is pushing!

 

[Byakuya769]

It feels like this has been said about McCain multiple times now since August 29, 2008.

Knew he was a clown ever since his "don't bring my daughter into this discussion as I try to detail reproductive rights for all women!" shit he pulled on Alan Keys in 2000.

 

[Officerrob]

He means to say that he was gaining ground before the debate.

As evidence of that he's leaning on polls from WeAskAmerica and Rasmussen? Come on, that's pretty shitty trolling. He's pulling a Romney here and jumping on anything he can at this point

 

[Cloudy]

Interesting how Rasmussen's poll of Virginia showing Romney leading by 1 has Tim Kaine leading by 7 at 52-45. I say interesting because everyone was saying his goose was cooked after he turned in a crummy debate performance.

I wonder which side of the poll the right-wing is pushing!

He didn't have a bad debate. He just set himself up for tax ads by saying everyone should pay at least some income tax when pushed by the moderator

 

[Mike M]

It's really ironic that both McCain and Romney were both GOP members I'd have given serious consideration voting for once upon a time.

 

[titiklabingapat]

It's really ironic that both McCain and Romney were both GOP members I'd have given serious consideration voting for once upon a time.

The person is the product of the party, after all.

 

[Tim-E]

It's really ironic that both McCain and Romney were both GOP members I'd have given serious consideration voting for once upon a time.

Shows what you have to do to win the Republican Nomination nowadays.

 

[Guevara]

It's really ironic that both McCain and Romney were both GOP members I'd have given serious consideration voting for once upon a time.

The GOP primary process destroys people.

 

[syllogism]

Santorum was kind of joking here, probably not the best way to phrase it

“I’ve voted to kill Big Bird in the past,” Romney’s ex-primary rival said. “I have a record there that I have to disclose. That doesn’t mean I don’t like Big Bird. You can kill things and still like them, maybe to eat them, I don’t know. That’s probably that. Can we — can we go back on that one?”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...-kill-things-and-still-like-them/?tid=wp_ipad

 

[Forever]

Can we — can we go back on that one?

lmao

 

[PantherLotus]

man this thread moves too fast for me these days. Anyone handing out props for positive jobs and/or accurate "good jobs news coming in sept and oct" predictions?

/preening

 

[Tim-E]

Can we — can we go back on that one?

I think the Republican party has said this a lot over the last year.

 

[The Librarian]

Those post debate polls don't fully take the debate into account though, so you can't really use them to measure its impact...

Next week there will be plenty of polls measuring exactly how the debate played out.

Debate isn't going to matter more than the recent economic news.

 

[Byakuya769]

As evidence of that he's leaning on polls from WeAskAmerica and Rasmussen? Come on, that's pretty shitty trolling. He's pulling a Romney here and jumping on anything he can at this point

Didn't say it was sound, just consistent.

 

[mckmas8808]

i wonder if the missing BLs numbers they found last week will cause the unemployment rate to drop?
7.9% maybe?

Oh shit son. You predicted this well.

 

[Blergmeister]

I was referencing today's polls, not the jobs numbers. That's what I'm waiting to get Silver's extended opinion on

But the period after the debate but before the jobs numbers don't matter anymore, just the time after both. What you are asking for is like asking right now for the time between the RNC and DNC and trying to extrapolate out the election from there when other events have happened since then. It might be interesteing from a standpoint of analyzing the debate specifically, but no one cares about just the debate, they care about the election.

Also, I want to point out that Americans don't care about the job numbers this month. What matters is that the psychological milestones that were hit, sub 8% and 7.8% is less than when Obama took office. All this with none of the negative caveats (participation rate, etc.) The actual numbers are as middling as they've always been and matter as much as they have the past 6 months.

 

[Diablos]

Those post debate polls don't fully take the debate into account though, so you can't really use them to measure its impact...

Next week there will be plenty of polls measuring exactly how the debate played out.

Yeah, the jury is still out on the debate. We can't assume this to be over with. I won't feel better about it until next week when all the major polling players finally weigh in.

It's pretty cocky to assume that this is just a small dent in Obama's armor and he's already bounced back. Kind of like how this thread, for months now, implied that Obama would slaughter Romney in a debate. Welp.

 

[Owzers]

Allen West is funny though. "if you'd stop yelling in my ear we can get to the bottom of this"

Allen West is on a fact finding mission.

 

[Cheebo]

But the period after the debate but before the jobs numbers don't matter anymore, just the time after both.

Monthly jobs numbers never impact polls. Look at how much the bad numbers last month hurt Obama. Not at all. The jobs numbers are baked into the results already, those who found employment would change who they vote for when they got employment, not when a report comes out at the end of the month.

 

[ezrarh]

Santorum was kind of joking here, probably not the best way to phrase it



http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...-kill-things-and-still-like-them/?tid=wp_ipad

Change "big bird" with "fetus" and maybe Santorum is coming around to prochoice afterall!?

 

[Aaron Strife]

Allen West is funny though. "if you'd stop yelling in my ear we can get to the bottom of this"

Allen West is on a fact finding mission.

Step 1 - Disregard the current facts
Step 2 - Find new facts that fit your ideology
Step 3 - ???
Step 4 - Profit! Electoral victory!

Monthly jobs numbers never impact polls. Look at how much the bad numbers last month hurt Obama. Not at all. The jobs numbers are baked into the results already, those who found employment would change who they vote for when they got employment, not when a report comes out at the end of the month.

"I don't know if i get a job until the BLS report comes out!" - Obama advisers

 

[Z_Y]

Apologies if this has already been posted. My sister lives in Pittsburgh and she just sent me this link...

http://www.votespa.com/portal/server.pt/community/home/13514

Check out the statement under the Voter ID headline.

I would love for somebody to respond when asked for their ID with: "I'm asking you to kiss my ass, but you're not required to do so."

 

[XenodudeX]

I think jobs numbers do effect polling numbers. It gets people thinking that maybe the economy is getting better. Remember the jobs reports around the spring? Obama's poll numbers went up because people were thinking the US was entering a recovery.

 

[RDreamer]

lol, just got a Romney ad in the mail. "42 MONTHS of unemployment over 8%... A HAMMER BLOW to America's Struggling Middle-Class Families"

 

[Particle Physicist]

New narrative. Debates are boring, they happened over 24 hours ago! And Romney was The Winner yesterday, now Obama is The Winner today! The Winner has changed! Irrelevant political hack, your thoughts.

Can I be the winner tomorrow? I'm never te winner

 

[Diablos]

Apologies if this has already been posted. My sister lives in Pittsburgh and she just sent me this link...

http://www.votespa.com/portal/server.pt/community/home/13514

Check out the statement under the Voter ID headline.



I would love for somebody to respond when asked for their ID with: "I'm asking you to kiss my ass, but you're not required to do so."

I live in Pittsburgh too.

Oh lawd, I hope I get a testy conservative person at the table when I go to vote so I can throw the state supreme court decision in their face.

"I do have identification, but I have already registered to vote here and I don't think it's necessary, and the state courts seem to agree. Please point me to the booth, thanks."