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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down

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C

Cloudy

Banned
A bad jobs report kills any momentum from Obama's speech cos the media will hammer that all day and ignore the speech. An improvement or so-so report would be much better than a bad one...
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Because the repubs are throwing shit on the wall now, check these out:

CHARLOTTE, N.C. – The Hispanic Texas mayor whose keynote speech wowed the Democratic National Convention crowd Wednesday night draws political inspiration from his mother – who was a member of a radical civil rights movement and who reportedly thinks the truth behind the Battle of the Alamo is that Texans swiped Mexico’s land.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...-alamo-defenders-drunks-crooks/#ixzz25fdpwu8R
Click to expand...

Fox now going after politicians' mothers to make their case. Also, lol considering the right's response to the US Civil War, The South/Confederacy, et al. How rich.

Bill Clinton was off his game tonight in one of the longest nomination speeches in the history of humankind.
Click to expand...

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/09/05/Fact-Checking-Bill-Clinton

LOL
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
PhoenixDark said:
saving all these posts for November 6th. Facts are no longer facts when they don't support The Narrative. It's well established that the trajectory of unemployment has impact on elections.
Click to expand...

You're not understanding that I've said. I didn't argue an increasing UE rate has no effect.

What I said was the report itself has no effect. If more people are out of work because they are losing jobs, that is bad in and of itself. That it's put on paper doesn't matter. Or put it this way, if there is no jobs report published and the jobs are going the wrong way, Obama will be in trouble even though it's never announced.

What I did say, however, is that it's so late in the year that unless it's a true disaster, there will be too many jobs created come Nov 6th in the last year to have a negative effect on his reelection campaign.

No one is going to go "oh man, only 75k this month. voting for romney." People will look around and see more people are working than a year ago. Or perhaps they're one o those people. THAT'S what makes people vote.



UE can increase with jobs created. Of all the statistics to be meaningless for people, it's UE. In fact, UE going up under certain circumstances could be a positive thing.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
http://blogmaverick.com/2012/09/05/are-better-off-today-than-we-were-4-years-ago-part-1/

Everyone is going to answer that question differently based on their own personal situation. But what I can tell you as a business person trying to look at the big picture, I don’t remember 4 years ago as being a good time for business. As a starting point of reference, here is a reminder of what the stock market was going through in the fall of 2008

Out of the top 10 point declines in the Dow Industrials, 5 of them occurred in the fall of 2008

Oct 22nd 2008 514 pts 5.7pct
Oct 9th 2008 679 pts 7.3pct
Dec 1 2008 680pts 7.7pct
Oct 15th 2008 733 7.9pct
Sept 29th 2008 778 7pct

Is that what we liked better ?
I bring this up because I’m sick of slogan marketing of candidates. Four years ago we were worried about whether or not our financial system would fail. We were worried about whether the auto industry would fail. We were worried about whether or not housing would drop to zero and we were concerned with whether or not it would ever come back. We were concerned with what the bottom in job losses would be and whether or not there even was a bottom.
Four years ago we were looking around and describing our situation as “The Great Recession”. Just the fact that we are no longer saying “We are in the midst of a Great Recession” by definition means that as a country we are better off financially and psychologically than we were 4 years ago. Can we please put that slogan to bed already ?
Click to expand...

More in link including criticism of Obama's transparency

I'm kind of surprised Cuban is a Democrat but maybe I shouldn't be..
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
One more thing before I go to bed. Folks keep asking why Obama can't push back against the GOP like Bill did today. 2 things:

- If Obama personally made some of the points in this speech, he'd be accused of blaming Bush, whining, having thin skin, being divisive or all of the above

- Anyone who can be persuaded (as in potential Romney voters) by Clinton's speech are folks Obama can't "reach". They would be those so-called Reagan Democrats i.e white working class Dems who need to be cajoled by Biden, Clinton et al to not vote against their own interests
 
S

Salvor.Hardin

Banned
Bill Clinton's speech was beautiful. He's just so relaxed when he talks, and that's what separates him from so many other politicians - he talks to the electorate. When he speaks he adds in conversational lubricators that make what is a brilliant speech seem like a brilliant dialogue. Now some people say Bush did that as well, but Bush just dumbed himself down to seem folksy, whereas Clinton's speeches remain intellectual, but at the same time casual and clear.

'It's Arithmetic' is fucking genius and I hope to see that on banners everywhere.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Bill kicked some serious ass.

PD, why are you so negative about everything? You like to remind people with nearly every post that Obama might lose.

The thing I'm most worried about now is voter ID laws in GOP controlled states denying the President his re-election if it's close enough. OR GOP state Govs stepping in and trying to think of every possible way to prevent their EV's from being given to Obama if he won them (i.e. OH, FL), citing some kind of bullshit in their recently passed legislation.

The Eurozone crashing is pretty terrifying, yes, but I think it would have been a lot more prevalent in the news by now.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Poligaf, with deep regret, I have a sad announcement to make. Jon Stewart, of the Daily Show With Jon Stewart, has officially jumped the proverbial shark.

Today I witnessed one of the worst displays of false equivalencies/attack the democrats for the sake of attacking and/or giving the impression of being fair and balanced, ever broadcast. His first segment "joked" about how Democrats seem to think that Obama is God (literally), even though just a day ago, Stewart was making fun of people for NOT being enthusiastic enough for Obama. This magical God Obama was supposed to be the counterbalancing force created by the Dems in response to the imaginary Obama created by the Republicans last week. Because of course, they're exactly the same situations except in opposite directions. Obviously.

His second segment dealt with showing how Democrats, despite their talk about being an inclusive, big tent party, are in fact just as small minded, bigoted and prejudiced as the Tea Party is. It was utterly despicable and disingenuous. I almost thought that they hired David Brooks as a producer.


You know, every so often, I'd considered myself a fan of Jon Stewart, but it's clear that the man has sold out and lost whatever iota of journalism he had. And please, don't bother trying to defend Jon Stewart Halperin. It's over. He is but a shell of his former self.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Black Mamba said:
Fox now going after politicians' mothers to make their case. Also, lol considering the right's response to the US Civil War, The South/Confederacy, et al. How rich.
Click to expand...

isn't that what happened though? didn't the american texans stick around at the alamo as a last stand because the mexicans wouldn't let them have slaves after inviting the americans in to texas?
 
D

Diablos

Member
Oblivion said:
Poligaf, with deep regret, I have a sad announcement to make. Jon Stewart, of the Daily Show With Jon Stewart, has officially jumped the proverbial shark.

Today I witnessed one of the worst displays of false equivalencies/attack the democrats for the sake of attacking and/or giving the impression of being fair and balanced, ever broadcast. His first segment "joked" about how Democrats seem to think that Obama is God (literally), even though just a day ago, Stewart was making fun of people for NOT being enthusiastic enough for Obama. This magical God Obama was supposed to be the counterbalancing force created by the Dems in response to the imaginary Obama created by the Republicans last week. Because of course, they're exactly the same situations except in opposite directions. Obviously.

His second segment dealt with showing how Democrats, despite their talk about being an inclusive, big tent party, are in fact just as small minded, bigoted and prejudiced as the Tea Party is. It was utterly despicable and disingenuous. I almost thought that they hired David Brooks as a producer.


You know, every so often, I'd considered myself a fan of Jon Stewart, but it's clear that the man has sold out and lost whatever iota of journalism he had. And please, don't bother trying to defend Jon Stewart Halperin. It's over. He is but a shell of his former self.
Click to expand...

You can tell when Stewart is trying too hard/has nothing to say. I don't understand why he does this pandering either, as it will get him absolutely nowhere with his viewers, nor would it ever be enough to gain new ones who would give a shit after this coverage.

But yeah, he did an amazing job last week and now he's just saying whatever the fuck he feels like he needs to be saying so that he can be fair or something. Isn't Stewart the guy who said he's just a comedian, not a news guy?

It's sad, too -- Colbert has been kicking his ass for at least 2-3 years now. But conventions are when Stewart really still can shine, as demonstrated last week, so it's pretty sad that he's pissing on his own parade this week.

At this point Stewart could get away with doing shows only a couple times a week while Colbert keeps doing his thing. He's just really getting bad.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Aaron said:
I thought Stewart's coverage of the RNC was almost a complete miss. Only Samantha Bee nailed it.
Click to expand...

Really? Yeah, Bee's segment was awesome, but Stewart had some good moments like with Ryan lying about things but being irrelevant if it works, and when Stewart ripped Romney for saying he and the Republicans hoped Obama would succeed.

Diablos: Yeah, pretty much.
 
M

Measley

Junior Member
Something to keep in mind; Thanks to the internet, Anyone who missed the Clinton speech will watch it on YouTube or some other form of media.
 
B

Black Republican

Member
Gingrich doing some spinning on twitter, i think he's still going lol:
Bipartisan effort balanced budget in 90s. Obama rejects bipartisan efforts so cant balance budget. Gap between clinton and obama is amazing


Clinton claimed credit for balanced budget. Done with gop congress. Clinton and democratic congress had zero Balanced budgets


Clinton tried to cover for obama on welfare reform But in 1996 state senator obama opposed work requirement. President Obama waived it


Clinton cited welfare reform. Done with gop congress. Obama rejects working with gop house. Obama rejects work requirement for welfare.


589 point dow increase clinton- democratic congress. 6,757 increase clinton gop congress. Obama refused to work with gop house- no progress


3830 was the dow the day the gop won congress in 1994. It was 10,587 the day clinton left office in 2001. He worked with gop, obama didn't


3241 was the dow in 1993 when Clinton was inaugurated. 3830 was the dow on election day 1994.Two years of democratic congress and president
Click to expand...

and GOP consultant Mike Murphy is saying dow is only so high because of a GOP congress
 
C

Chumly

Member
As Clinton said you can't have bipartisanship without the other side. It's unbelievable that republicans can even bring that up.
 
E

ErasureAcer

Banned
WTF is this Romney ad with a lady on a date telling Invisible Obama(a chair) that she has to break up with him? It didn't work the first time Mitt.
 
K

KingGondo

Banned
The GOP's attitude toward Obama supporters is incredibly condescending.

"We realize you were swayed by his good looks and Hollywood friends 4 years ago, but it's time to let adults run the country."

I don't think they realize that nobody wants to date Mitt even if they "break up" with Obama.
 
K

Kosmo

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
I'm going to bet the right focuses on Clinton mentioning Bush more than Obama
Click to expand...

Didn't get a chance to comment on Bill's speech, but the dude is a pro's pro. he made about as good a case (whether you agree with his "facts" or not) for Obama as you can make. I did find it odd when he went into the "Republican's aren't that bad, I've worked with Reagan, Bush I and II, etc." section and even telling Democrats "You're not always right."

Got his Hillary plugs in there for 2016 as well.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Last batch of jobs numbers before the big one tomorrow (ISM non-manufacturing is later this morning):

Challenger Job Cut Report (announced layoffs):

Layoff announcements are lower, according to Challenger's count for August which is 32,239 for the second lowest of the recovery.​

ADP

Seeing strength for tomorrow's employment report, ADP estimates private payrolls in August will rise 201,000. This is well above the high end of expectations at 165,000 and also well above ADP's revised level for August of 173,000.​

UI Claims:

New jobless claims fell sizably in the September 1 week to 365,000 for the lowest level in 4 weeks. This is right at the best end of expectations. The weekly decline of 12,000 is the best in 6 weeks. A slight offset is a 3,000 upward revision to the prior week.​

BLS hasn't corresponded well with this data for most of the year, but it's still encouraging.

Kosmo said:
We'll know by tonight - if Obama doesn't drop a hint that it's good - it will be bad.
Click to expand...

I don't think he knows.
 
J

Jimothy

Member
Oblivion said:
Poligaf, with deep regret, I have a sad announcement to make. Jon Stewart, of the Daily Show With Jon Stewart, has officially jumped the proverbial shark.

Today I witnessed one of the worst displays of false equivalencies/attack the democrats for the sake of attacking and/or giving the impression of being fair and balanced, ever broadcast. His first segment "joked" about how Democrats seem to think that Obama is God (literally), even though just a day ago, Stewart was making fun of people for NOT being enthusiastic enough for Obama. This magical God Obama was supposed to be the counterbalancing force created by the Dems in response to the imaginary Obama created by the Republicans last week. Because of course, they're exactly the same situations except in opposite directions. Obviously.

His second segment dealt with showing how Democrats, despite their talk about being an inclusive, big tent party, are in fact just as small minded, bigoted and prejudiced as the Tea Party is. It was utterly despicable and disingenuous. I almost thought that they hired David Brooks as a producer.


You know, every so often, I'd considered myself a fan of Jon Stewart, but it's clear that the man has sold out and lost whatever iota of journalism he had. And please, don't bother trying to defend Jon Stewart Halperin. It's over. He is but a shell of his former self.
Click to expand...

I had to mute the first segment. It's painfully obvious how far Stewart and Oliver were reaching in order to get some cheap laughs. The segment with all of the people at the convention calling religious people and gun nuts freaks was pretty funny, though. Just not in the way the show intended.
 
F

Frank the Great

Banned
even if obama does know, he should shut his fucking mouth because if he says ANYTHING or makes any hint it will just be fuel for conservatives to claim that the numbers have been doctored to help his election.

the preliminary data seems promising but i am not getting my hopes up. don't want to get burned.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
Cloudy said:
I feel the republicans and their media stooges made a mistake this week. They should have waited till after Obama's speech to start pounding the "are you better off" thing.

Dems were clearly caught off guard by this because of the sheer audacity. It's like if someone rented a house for 8 years and regularly shit on the carpet. Then 4 years after a new owner moves in, the house still stinks and the previous renter asks you if the house is better off than it was before they shat all over the place.

Anyways they jumped the gun and Obama will have an unfiltered response in his speech
Click to expand...

Turns out Clinton did the job first. I wonder if Obama will re-visit that or just focus on the future. Anyway, it was a rare tactical mistake from the Romney folks (their campaign is devoid of any substance but they are good at tactics)
 
D

Drek

Member
markatisu said:
The most ironic thing about this is how people on the right are going to LOVE this book and its portrayal after calling Woodward all sorts of names for his work on the Bush Administration
Click to expand...

I don't know, I think the GOP establishment has some sympathy for Woodward. After all, he was pretty damn in the bag for G.W.B.'s White House and has tried to foist as much sensational bullshit as he could on Obama previously (including a previous book entitled Obama's Wars, guess the subject matter there).

Woodward at this point is a hack that gets pointed in whatever direction his sources want to steer him. Turns out those sources have been primarily members of the GOP (including Scooter Libby at one point). There's a reason he had to testify on the administration's outing of Valerie Plame.

He was the Bush admin's most frequently worked with reporter and people now somehow think he's got real inroads with the Obama White House?

PhoenixDark said:
I expect clear changes after friday's job report. David Frum insinuated it'll be pretty bad.
Click to expand...
What validity does a former GOP speechwriter's economic predictions carry?

Getting a degree in economics over 20 years ago doesn't suddenly mean you're a valid predictor of the monthly jobs report.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
Obama does get the numbers the night before
Click to expand...

I'd read the opposite - where did you read that? Over the past couple years the administration has had to scramble on Friday mornings when the report wasn't as good as they were expecting; just a few months ago they had to delay Obama's morning statement on jobs to re-write it because it was worse than they thought.
 
K

Kosmo

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
I'd read the opposite - where did you read that? Over the past couple years the administration has had to scramble on Friday mornings when the report wasn't as good as they were expecting; just a few months ago they had to delay Obama's morning statement on jobs to re-write it because it was worse than they thought.
Click to expand...

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/09/05/obamas-thursday-night-secret-about-jobs/

Mr. Obama doesn’t have to wait until the formal release to see the numbers. Under a decades-long practice, a select group of U.S. officials learns the contents of each month’s jobs report on the Thursday evening before its release.
Click to expand...
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
Kosmo said:
Didn't get a chance to comment on Bill's speech, but the dude is a pro's pro. he made about as good a case (whether you agree with his "facts" or not) for Obama as you can make. I did find it odd when he went into the "Republican's aren't that bad, I've worked with Reagan, Bush I and II, etc." section and even telling Democrats "You're not always right."

Got his Hillary plugs in there for 2016 as well.
Click to expand...

Clinton's "facts" guys.

His "facts."

QUOTATION MARKS
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
My goodness, the folks on Morning Joe are assholes. Brokaw looked like he was having a stroke and they were all laughing. Thankfully it was just Ambien side-effects but someone should have cut the feed and called 911 immediately
 
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