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[Loudninja]

Hah its the freaking New York Post.

Also what is this Bam garbage?

 

[Dreamcaster]

It's standard practice to refer to anyone with a doctorate as "Doctor," regardless of what it's in.

I am aware - like I said, I have no idea why it bothers me. I guess I don't equate writing a paper (Ph.D. thesis) to that which medical doctors go through to obtain their degree. Like I said, just a pet peeve, no big deal.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Consumer confidence crushes expectations

http://www.businessinsider.com/university-of-michigan-consumer-confidence-2012-10

Hah. The article misidentifies it as consumer confidence, when it's consumer sentiment. Similar concepts, different sources.

That said, this was very good news. It might explain why Obama's job approval rating is holding steady even after the debate. The details are good also (from Bloomberg):

A big surge in consumer sentiment is a big surprise. The mid-month reading of 83.1 is up nearly five points from September which is a very big move for this report. Chatter this morning in the markets was looking for a dip back while the Econoday consensus was looking for no change. The gain is centered in the expectations component but also includes a sizable 2.9 point gain for the current conditions component, which at 88.6 is retesting its best level of the recovery which is August's 88.7. But the comparison to watch is with September and the nearly three point gain is an early signal of strength for October's set of monthly data.

Expectations jumped 6.0 points to 79.5 which is by far the best reading of the recovery. This jump hints at confidence in future income prospects which belies the bulk of data coming out of the jobs market though it does underscore yesterday's drop in jobless claims and last week's drop in the unemployment rate. A separate reading on the 12-month economic outlook is up a big 10 points to 97.

The University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center questions 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending. Consumer confidence and consumer sentiment are two ways of talking about consumer attitudes. Among economic reports, consumer sentiment refers to the Michigan survey while consumer confidence refers to The Conference Board's survey.

The Conference Board compiles a survey of consumer attitudes on the economy. The headline Consumer Confidence Index is based on consumers' perceptions of current business and employment conditions, as well as their expectations for six months hence regarding business conditions, employment, and income. Three thousand households across the country are surveyed each month.

 

[Godslay]

I am aware - like I said, I have no idea why it bothers me. I guess I don't equate writing a paper (Ph.D. thesis) to that which medical doctors go through to obtain their degree. Like I said, just a pet peeve, no big deal.

It's not just 'writing a paper', in many instances it involves substantial research and in some cases years of work. Sure a MD works hard to get his doctorate, but it doesn't mean that others don't pour their lives into their field of study and work just as hard.

 

[Jarmel]

Best line I've read on the debate: it was Roger Sterling debating Pete Campbell.

That's actually a very good analysis.

 

[AndyD]

It's not just 'writing a paper', in many instances it involves substantial research and in some cases years of work. Sure a MD works hard to get his doctorate, but it doesn't mean that others don't pour their lives into their field of study and work just as hard.

Indeed. Not to mention that a lot of science and other PhDs also conduct hands on experiments for years so its not just sitting comfortably behind a desk.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

He gon get this work.

OMG

Dying over here.

 

[B-Dubs]

Damn son, he got that work alright

 

[Learn2read]

Can someone explain the "gon get this work" meme - google is telling me it's rap something but not sure why it's a meme

 

[jamesinclair]

Hah. The article misidentifies it as consumer confidence, when it's consumer sentiment. Similar concepts, different sources.

That said, this was very good news. It might explain why Obama's job approval rating is holding steady even after the debate. The details are good also (from Bloomberg):

Whoever is in office next year will be declared an economic god.

 

[WaltJay]

Seems like at CNN they are.

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight
Are the polls oversampling Buzz Bissinger?

 

[Forever]

Can someone explain the "gon get this work" meme - google is telling me it's rap something but not sure why it's a meme

It's what you say when you're about to rip someone a new asshole in a rap battle.

 

[Dude Abides]

That's not how you spell malarkey.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

I just noticed the first 5 polls on the RCP average are all Romney +1 right now. Talk about a consensus.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Can someone explain the "gon get this work" meme - google is telling me it's rap something but not sure why it's a meme

There was a freestyle competition where someone was absolutely getting slaughtered. The guy performing said slaughter kept saying "He gon get this work" as the beat-down continued...

 

[Jackson50]

ARG polls are horrible.

As I recall, ARG rated near the bottom in Silver's pollster ratings. And even after Mark Blumenthal tweaked Silver's method, they still ranked near the bottom.

It's not just 'writing a paper', in many instances it involves substantial research and in some cases years of work. Sure a MD works hard to get his doctorate, but it doesn't mean that others don't pour their lives into their field of study and work just as hard.

Yeah. His tone was dismissive. Working towards a doctorate often involves intense research. Two of my friends have spent considerable time conducting fieldwork in Southeast Asia and Latin America. Medical doctors are subjected to rigorous training, obviously. But that does not diminish the difficulty in attaining non-medical doctorates.

 

[Red Blaster]

I am aware - like I said, I have no idea why it bothers me. I guess I don't equate writing a paper (Ph.D. thesis) to that which medical doctors go through to obtain their degree. Like I said, just a pet peeve, no big deal.

Yeah dude, non-medical doctors just sit on their asses and smoke weed for 6 years

 

[ivysaur12]

Oh my god I'm in tears.

http://www.theonion.com/articles/justice-ginsburg-throws-party-while-120yearold-par,29871/

While not debate related, this one had me laughing the most.

 

[Byakuya769]

I guess I'm in the "If you're not a medical doctor, you're not really a DOCTOR camp."

That's a stupid place to be, bro.

 

[Tim-E]

http://www.theonion.com/articles/justice-ginsburg-throws-party-while-120yearold-par,29871/

While not debate related, this one had me laughing the most.

For some reason the bolded killed me:

“My dad is seriously crazy if he thinks I’m not going to throw an epic rager when I have the house to myself all weekend,” said Ginsburg, whose father, a furrier and haberdasher by trade

edit: and this

“Party’s off the fucking hook!” exclaimed Breyer, taking a body shot from a 58-year-old court stenographer who had come with friends from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit. “Don’t get me wrong, [Elena] Kag[an]’s confirmation bash was the shit, but this one’s in a totally different league. I’d forgotten how cute first-year federal clerkship girls are. Damn!”

 

[jamesinclair]

That's not how you spell malarkey.

There appears to be no consensus on how the word is spelt, meaning every way is right

 

[Forever]

I wonder how the Irish felt about last night.

It was the first time two Irish Catholics went at it in a VP debate, any coverage over there?

 

[Dude Abides]

There appears to be no consensus on how the word is spelt, meaning every way is right

The "e" may be debatable but not the "u."

 

[Tim-E]

There was a freestyle competition where someone was absolutely getting slaughtered. The guy performing said slaughter kept saying "He gon get this work" as the beat-down continued...

I don't get why it's funny. Then again, I don't understand that "Gangam Style" thing at all, either, so I think I'm just turning into a grumpy old fart.

 

[codhand]

Debate clips make it look even better for Biden, he really nailed it. Whereas with Obama I was shouting at the screen for him to counter punch, Biden did nothing but attack attack attack.

 

[Shadow Hog]

There appears to be no consensus on how the word is spelt, meaning every way is right

So "Malarkey" is as good as "Mularkey" is as good as "Kltpzyxm"?

 

[Hobbestetrician]

Debate clips make it look even better for Biden, he really nailed it. Whereas with Obama I was shouting at the screen for him to counter punch, Biden did nothing but attack attack attack.

But he did it right after smiling so it is condescending. People may say they want substance but they really don't.

 

[pigeon]

There appears to be no consensus on how the word is spelt, meaning every way is right

This is a bunch of stuff.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Debate clips make it look even better for Biden, he really nailed it. Whereas with Obama I was shouting at the screen for him to counter punch, Biden did nothing but attack attack attack.

The only time I found myself thinking "damnit Joe you didn't say x" was during the 716b Medicare argument where he didn't mention the same figure is in Ryan's budget; and despite that he still dominated the Medicare discussion while speaking directly to seniors

 

[RustyNails]

The only time I found myself thinking "damnit Joe you didn't say x" was during the 716b Medicare argument where he didn't mention the same figure is in Ryan's budget; and despite that he still dominated the Medicare discussion while speaking directly to seniors

Ryan probably had a nice little rebuttal cooked for that line of attack.

 

[TommyT]

Mentioned it in the other thread... suppose now is a good a time as any to get my feet wet. I'll make an effort to stay relevant and current as much as I can. We'll see how it goes!

Debate clips make it look even better for Biden, he really nailed it. Whereas with Obama I was shouting at the screen for him to counter punch, Biden did nothing but attack attack attack.

I still haven't watched this one yet. Were questions and direct points actually addressed [well] this time instead of almost ignoring the moderator and broad finger pointing?

 

[Jackson50]

Mentioned it in the other thread... suppose now is a good a time as any to get my feet wet. I'll make an effort to stay relevant and current as much as I can. We'll see how it goes!

I still haven't watched this one yet. Were questions and direct points actually addressed [well] this time instead of almost ignoring the moderator and broad finger pointing?

Yeah. The moderator maintained control of the debate. Aside from a few mistakes, her performance was starkly superior to Lehrer's. And, yeah, the questions were direct. There was even an informative dialectic between Biden and Ryan. I recommend you watch it.

 

[Diablos]

Florida: Romney 49%, Obama 46% (American Research Group)

New Hampshire: Romney 50%, Obama 46% (American Research Group)

I know it's ARG, but it would be nice to have some more NH polling ffs. Get to steppin', pollsters.

 

[jamesinclair]

So "Malarkey" is as good as "Mularkey" is as good as "Kltpzyxm"?

As long a the message gets across, the spelling doesn't matter, that's how language evolves

 

[Aaron Strife]

I know it's ARG, but it would be nice to have some more NH polling ffs. Get to steppin', pollsters.

They be a bunch of swashbucklers. Y'arggg.

 

[Diablos]

The only other one that's recent for NH is from shortly after the first debate, right? And that was O+6?

Also rarely do you see Obama's people calling out an individual poll, they must be really upset about that. Clown pollsters, bro.

 

[Aaron Strife]

The only other one that's recent for NH is from shortly after the first debate, right? And that was O+6?

Also rarely do you see Obama's people calling out an individual poll, they must be really upset about that. Clown pollsters, bro.

Ras' poll of Florida has Romney up by like 3, even that seems reasonable if you account for their bias. It seems to be a tied race there.

Still, I don't think a campaign in a position of strength will call out polls, but if he was asked about it I guess I could see that. As long as no one starts saying "the only poll that matters is on election day."

 

[Loudninja]

The only other one that's recent for NH is from shortly after the first debate, right? And that was O+6?

Also rarely do you see Obama's people calling out an individual poll, they must be really upset about that. Clown pollsters, bro.

Florida: At this point in 2008, Republicans outnumbered Democrats among absentee mail voters by more than 245,000. This year, Democrats have cut that margin to just 70,000 – an improvement of 175,000

Register voters in FL

FL 4,627,929 4,173,177 D +454,752

https://secure.assets.bostatic.com/pdfs/Voter_Reg_and_Early_Voting_FINAL.pdf

 

[codhand]

Oct. 11: Obama’s Swing State ‘Firewall’ Has Brittle Foundation

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...ndation/?gwh=026F881980EFECFC60261BA7B63502CD

 

[AniHawk]

gallup:

approval: 50-44 (-3)
rv: 48o 46r (unchanged)
lv: 47o 49r (r+1)

the immediate aftermath of the debate is being factored out. this doesn't count last thursday for the lv or rv, but it includes friday.

 

[Black Republican]

Gallup Approval 50 -44

LV: Obama 47 % Romney 49%

 

[Cloudy]

Gallup LV 49-47 R+1
Gallup RV 48-46 O
Obama Approval 50-44 (-3)

 

[gkryhewy]

boo-urns

 

[PhoenixDark]

gallup:

approval: 50-44 (-3)
rv: 48o 46r (unchanged)
lv: 47o 49r (r+1)

Romney near 50% a few weeks before the election.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Hot damn. Obama needs to pull out a win on Tuesday to stop this.

Romney near 50% a few weeks before the election.

Don't worry, all the undecideds go to Obama.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Worth pointing out that the RV/LV spread is double the historical average, which is about two points. Gallup has Obama up two on RV, down two on LV. That is very unlikely to be the spread on election day.

 

[ivysaur12]

Hot damn. Obama needs to pull out a win on Tuesday to stop this.


Don't worry, all the undecideds go to Obama.

Pretty much. Ugh.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Hot damn. Obama needs to pull out a win on Tuesday to stop this.


Don't worry, all the undecideds go to Obama.

They won't all go to Obama. Romney can clearly win this with more debate victories, which seem to be the only things that will drive the news in the coming weeks. There's no way Obama lays another dud like last time, but that doesn't mean he'll win them either; his style just doesn't translate to debates, unless facing an inferior opponent like McCain.

Florida is clearly leaning Romney's way, as is Virginia. Colorado is tightening. And Ohio is not as solid a firewall as we believed. In short, this is likely going to come down to one state like in 2004.

 

[Black Mamba]

Guys I told you last night the trackers had to move up for Romney today because of the math. The trackers took out the last very good polling day before the debate factored into their numbers.

 

[markatisu]

Guys I told you last night the trackers had to move up for Romney today because of the math. The trackers took out the last very good polling day before the debate factored into their numbers.

Shhh you are speaking common sense, too much for the chicken littles here

The Fact PD is trumpeting the Romney horn of victory should show Obama is in a much better place this morning