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[WaltJay]

To be the first Mormon President.

That is Bill Maher's theory and I agree with it. I think when you get that rich, what else is there to do? He's just adding zeros and commas to his bank account. Maybe it became boring?

Running for President is not necessarily the next logical step, but it is a history-making goal, especially when you add in the Mormon aspect.

Other than that, I have no idea why he's running. His background/career doesn't really line up with the typical politician's.

 

[ivysaur12]

If it comes down to OH you really have to wonder if the state GOP is going to pull any last-minute bullshit to invalidate votes. They've been tenacious in their efforts to do so thus far.

That issue has been settled by now.

 

[Cloudy]

If it comes down to OH you really have to wonder if the state GOP is going to pull any last-minute bullshit to invalidate votes. They've been tenacious in their efforts to do so thus far.

Yeah the way these state polls are going, Obama really needs OH

 

[jamesinclair]

still so pissed at Obama. He really shat the bed at the debate. Everyone has done their job except him when it matters. Ugh.

Sums up his entire presidency

 

[codhand]

Sums up his entire presidency

6/10

 

[markatisu]

What the hell? Poll Iowa already, ffs, there's enough pollsters out there perfectly capable of doing it...

This is the most fucked up election cycle ever. More nail biting than 2000 perhaps, but I wasn't politically engaged back then (nor could I vote).

They don't need to poll Iowa, its going for Obama.

But you will of course have a nervous breakdown everyday till the election. There is not a eye rolling smiley good enough for this

Romney is not getting IA and he is not getting OH, but you guys can keep making your days worse thinking it will flip

 

[Black Mamba]

I forgot last Sunday was good for Obama as Monday went up.

I guess on Sunday we should see Obama go up then back down Monday and hopefully steady or up Tuesday.

 

[Y2Kev]

Lol. Screwed because Obama hates debates. That would be such a good book for the post election reading cycle. Game change for 2012.

 

[ezekial45]

Just chill out guys.

 

[PhoenixDark]

That issue has been settled by now.

There weren't voter restriction laws on the books in Ohio 2004 either, didn't stop shady shit from happening. If this comes down to one sate, especially Ohio which has a Sec of State who is clearly unhinged, all bets are off.

 

[StopMakingSense]

Just chill out guys.

 

[pigeon]

I feel like Nate Silver is deliberately trying to stress me out.

I'm going to assume for the moment that the biggest problem was an enthusiasm shift since everybody's so mad at Obama and so hopefully things will look up now that Biden ripped off Ryan's head and carried it through the streets of Chicago yelling "BEHOLD THE FATE OF THOSE WHO WOULD PRIVATIZE SOCIAL SECURITY!"

 

[Diablos]

Romney is not getting IA and he is not getting OH, but you guys can keep making your days worse thinking it will flip

Uh if IA hasn't been seriously polled in quite some time and OH is within 2-3 points how can you say that with confidence?

This election is totally up for grabs, to think otherwise is a bit premature.

 

[Trakdown]

Again, I'm shocked by this statement. Mason-Dixon had some terribly inaccurate polls during Obama-McCain.

Their latest poll also has a complete flip on Latinos in Florida to Romney, which is unrealistic.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Uh if IA hasn't been seriously polled in quite some time and OH is within 2-3 points how can you say that with confidence?

This election is totally up for grabs, to think otherwise is a bit premature.

Since when is a 66% chance of winning "up for grabs"?

 

[Cloudy]

Lol. Screwed because Obama hates debates. That would be such a good book for the post election reading cycle. Game change for 2012.

There is no way an election turns on a debate. Anyone voting for Romney based on a debate was going to stay home or go with Romney eventually anyway. That said, Obama has to show some fight, defend his record and fire up his base as well

 

[markatisu]

Uh if IA hasn't been seriously polled in quite some time and OH is within 2-3 points how can you say that with confidence?

This election is totally up for grabs, to think otherwise is a bit premature.

Because I live in the Capital City of Des Moines and see the amount of Obama signs around the state as well as the daily news coverage of early voting going in Obama's favor

But you keep thinking what you want

 

[Diablos]

Since when is a 66% chance of winning "up for grabs"?

That 66% was 87% on the 4th, and if Obama can't figure out a way to stop the bleeding it's going to drop even more. And so far, polling has indicated that Romney is finding himself in a stronger position by the day.

And frankly any election that is going to be decided by either one or two states is totally in "up for grabs" territory, i.e. 2004.

Because I live in the Capital City of Des Moines and see the amount of Obama signs around the state as well as the daily news coverage of early voting going in Obama's favor

But you keep thinking what you want

Drive up to your local news stations and tell them they need to do some god damn polling!

 

[schuelma]

There is no way an election turns on a debate. Anyone voting for Romney based on a debate was going to stay home or go with Romney eventually anyway. That said, Obama has to show some fight, defend his record and fire up his base as well

Debates are historically very important, especially for challengers who have been defined by their opponents.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I'm not at the point yet where I think Obama will lose.

However, if the American people actually let themselves get hoodwinked by Romney entirely on the basis of a good debate, they deserve whatever comes of his presidency.

 

[Particle Physicist]

Silver again

Read the next sentence:

" Mr. Obama probably does not trail in Florida by seven points"

 

[Beer Monkey]

So I live in the city proper in Cincinnati i.e. ZOMG BLACK PEOPLE.

So today I saw this giant "VOTER FRAUD = 2.5 years and $10,000 FINE" billboard. Paid for by an anonymous group: "paid for by a private family foundation".

None in the wealthy white neighborhoods here from what I hear.

 

[Stinkles]

Since when is a 66% chance of winning "up for grabs"?

It sounds like a bigger lead than it is. If it were 66% of voters, that would be a nice solid inescapable victory. But put it this way, if you had a 66% chance of calling heads on a coin toss, would you bet your job on that coin toss?

 

[HylianTom]

Romney's also going to have to overcome a more and more solid vote deficit being baked into Ohio's tally day by day. 20% have already voted, with nearly a two-to-one advantage for Obama. The longer this goes on, the steeper Romney's climb gets there.

If anything, we may very well be looking at an electoral-popular split. It's looking more and more likely as time goes by, I think.

Should Romney pull a win out of his ass, I agree - America deserves whatever misery comes its way. My long-term plans won't be adjusted all that much.

 

[codhand]

Because I live in the Capital City of Des Moines and see the amount of Obama signs around the state as well as the daily news coverage of early voting going in Obama's favor

But you keep thinking what you want

Agree, east coaster here, but reports I hear from Cedar Falls, that they love Obama. Bams went hard in the Iowa paint. How many campaign speeches did he give there?

 

[jamesinclair]

Is this how Carter lost?

 

[isoquant]

Because I live in the Capital City of Des Moines and see the amount of Obama signs around the state

Right.

Since when is a 66% chance of winning "up for grabs"?

 

[AniHawk]

i'd just be surprised as hell that with three weeks left, the romney campaign doesn't shit the bed on something. they've only ever had one good day.

obama really does need to bring it to the next two debates though. this shit sucks. however, i'm of the mind that romney wouldn't be an altogether bad president. the worst thing would be the supreme court. scalia, kennedy, and ginsberg would probably retire.

but, if romney's president for the next 4-8 years, it might be the gop's last stand unless they get hispanic voters on their side in a big way.

 

[Crisco]

That 66% was 87% on the 4th, and if Obama can't figure out a way to stop the bleeding it's going to drop even more. And so far, polling has indicated that Romney is finding himself in a stronger position by the day.

And frankly any election that is going to be decided by either one or two states is totally in "up for grabs" territory, i.e. 2004.


Drive up to your local news stations and tell them they need to do some god damn polling!

2004 is an apt comparison, but not in the way you think. We all wanted to believe the optimistic polling for Kerry leading up to election night. Bush ended up winning Ohio, Florida, the southwest, and the popular vote decisively. The race was never as close as we hoped it was.

 

[ivysaur12]

If anything, we may very well be looking at an electoral-popular split. It's looking more and more likely as time goes by.

That's what I'm thinking. It's still likely Obama will win the electoral college.

At the same time, I can't help but think that the second debate for Obama will go considerably better and help turn this around. Hell, I think Joe did that last night.

 

[PhoenixDark]

There is no way an election turns on a debate. Anyone voting for Romney based on a debate was going to stay home or go with Romney eventually anyway. That said, Obama has to show some fight, defend his record and fire up his base as well

It wasn't just a debate though. Getting beat is one thing - as a sports fan you know there are games where your team is just outmatched, gives their all but still loses. But there are also games where your team completely gives up (like say, Kobe against the Suns a few years ago in the playoffs). No one respects that. I think Obama went in with an attitude that because he believes debates are meaningless, he wasn't going to take it seriously. Voters saw someone who looked at times disengaged, at times outmatched, and at times feckless. In short: unpresidential.

Before the debate most voters may have liked or disliked Obama, but believed he was doing his best and working hard. After that debate there have been multiple people questioning that. If he can't fight to save his own job, why should voters vote for him? Likewise from a dem perspective, if he can't fight for himself why should they fight for him? Hence why you had some voters turned off by it, and other voters completely demoralized by it.

 

[markatisu]

Drive up to your local news stations and tell them they need to do some god damn polling!

In your hourly over-accelerated panic did you ever stop to wonder WHY there is not a lot of polling going on for IA?

Why poll when you already know the results. I have been through every election since 2000 here and I know what a GOP win looks like as well as what a Democratic wave looks like. Things around here appear like 2008, especially since due to Obama's natural energy (aka the Wind tax credits) we have lower UE then most of the nation.

 

[Diablos]

That's what I'm thinking. It's still likely Obama will win the electoral college.

At the same time, I can't help but think that the second debate for Obama will go considerably better and help turn this around. Hell, I think Joe did that last night.

Joe might have done so, but how many people watched it? I doubt it was 68 million. Furthermore, he's the VP and not the Pres so he can only have so much of an impact, but hopefully it fired up the base.

 

[ivysaur12]

Joe might have done so, but how many people watched it? I doubt it was 68 million. Furthermore, he's the VP and not the Pres so he can only have so much of an impact, but hopefully it fired up the base.

It doesn't matter. Will it stop the bleeding? Yes. Will it fire up the base? Yes. Will it get some great talking points? Yes. Will it be a good lead-in for the next debate? Yes.

 

[DragonSworne]

Joe might have done so, but how many people watched it? I doubt it was 68 million. Furthermore, he's the VP and not the Pres so he can only have so much of an impact, but hopefully it fired up the base.

Sarah Palin

 

[Shadow Hog]

Is this how Carter lost?

IIRC, Carter was never particularly in the lead.

 

[XenodudeX]

Because I live in the Capital City of Des Moines and see the amount of Obama signs around the state as well as the daily news coverage of early voting going in Obama's favor

But you keep thinking what you want

Anecdotal evidence, but I agree Obama will win IA.

 

[PhoenixDark]

IIRC, Carter was never particularly in the lead.

Carter was up big initially, then was losing through most of the summer. He came back a bit slightly before the first debate, at which point he cratered.

 

[pigeon]

Joe might have done so, but how many people watched it? I doubt it was 68 million. Furthermore, he's the VP and not the Pres so he can only have so much of an impact, but hopefully it fired up the base.

Why do you think the polls were slumping though? I'll give you a hint -- "swing and undecided voters all changed their position" is probably not the right answer.

 

[markatisu]

Joe might have done so, but how many people watched it? I doubt it was 68 million. Furthermore, he's the VP and not the Pres so he can only have so much of an impact, but hopefully it fired up the base.

Rough estimates from ratings sites like TVbythenumbers show ~30-40m watched the debates on the main channels (not counting cable)

 

[airmangataosenai]

Tomorrow's Gallup will be the first poll where data from the day after the debates isn't included, should be interesting.

 

[ivysaur12]

@PollTracker

CO President '12: Romney (R) 48.0% Obama (D) 47.0% (Oct. 10 - SurveyUSA) http://tpm.ly/W0w5qU

.

 

[Aaron Strife]

It wasn't just a debate though. Getting beat is one thing - as a sports fan you know there are games where your team is just outmatched, gives their all but still loses. But there are also games where your team completely gives up (like say, Kobe against the Suns a few years ago in the playoffs). No one respects that. I think Obama went in with an attitude that because he believes debates are meaningless, he wasn't going to take it seriously. Voters saw someone who looked at times disengaged, at times outmatched, and at times feckless. In short: unpresidential.

Before the debate most voters may have liked or disliked Obama, but believed he was doing his best and working hard. After that debate there have been multiple people questioning that. If he can't fight to save his own job, why should voters vote for him? Likewise from a dem perspective, if he can't fight for himself why should they fight for him? Hence why you had some voters turned off by it, and other voters completely demoralized by it.

I hate to say it but PD's right. I don't even think Obama's performance was that bad, but everyone else stepped up when they needed to. Who honestly expected Biden to blow Ryan out of the water? Who thought Clinton would give such an impassioned defense of Obama and the Democratic ideal?

 

[isoquant]

Is anything wrong with this theory?

The 1 Way Mitt Romney Can Beat President Obama on Taxes

But there's one way Romney can beat Obama on taxes. It's a plan that would completely shock the Obama campaign, appeal directly to middle class families, and lower taxes on every man and woman with a paycheck.

Mitt Romney should loudly support the extension of the payroll tax cut.

http://www.theatlantic.com/business...ney-can-beat-president-obama-on-taxes/263472/

 

[markatisu]

Anecdotal evidence, but I agree Obama will win IA.

Not as anecdotal as you might believe, the way the state is structured there are 3 massive population centers (Des Moines, IA City and Cedar Falls) which also correlate with the big 3 Universities (often liberal and Democrat)

The states borders and surrounding areas are Republican but also very small in population, they are also massively Hispanic. We have 3 formerly GOP leaning counties that are Democratic now thanks to the influx of Hispanics since 2000 (some counties have over 500% growth)

So yeah while saying I see signs is not hard proof, if anyone takes 5min to study the state since 2000 they would see why no major polling is being done. Obama is not stupid, he made his 1st win here and has come back repeatedly for a reason.

 

[jamesinclair]

The cw premiered beauty and the beast against the debate? Looks like the gop machine is working overtime to suppress the youth vote

 

[Black Mamba]

The media narrative killed him. It explains why pols turned sorry Friday instead of Thursday. I can't remember he media like that. If the idiotic liberals knew how to support their own I bet there wouldn't be a bounce.

 

[Particle Physicist]

It wasn't just a debate though. Getting beat is one thing - as a sports fan you know there are games where your team is just outmatched, gives their all but still loses. But there are also games where your team completely gives up (like say, Kobe against the Suns a few years ago in the playoffs). No one respects that. I think Obama went in with an attitude that because he believes debates are meaningless, he wasn't going to take it seriously. Voters saw someone who looked at times disengaged, at times outmatched, and at times feckless. In short: unpresidential.

Before the debate most voters may have liked or disliked Obama, but believed he was doing his best and working hard. After that debate there have been multiple people questioning that. If he can't fight to save his own job, why should voters vote for him? Likewise from a dem perspective, if he can't fight for himself why should they fight for him? Hence why you had some voters turned off by it, and other voters completely demoralized by it.

So what you are saying is that you were completely full of shit this entire time because there is no way you could have foreseen how that debate was going to go?

 

[markatisu]

The media narrative killed him. It explains why pols turned sorry Friday instead of Thursday. I can't remember he media like that. If the idiotic liberals knew how to support their own I bet there wouldn't be a bounce.

You mean if the media has not embodied the mindset of Diablos lol

 

[HylianTom]

Not as anecdotal as you might believe, the way the state is structured there are 3 massive population centers (Des Moines, IA City and Cedar Falls) which also correlate with the big 3 Universities (often liberal and Democrat)

The states borders and surrounding areas are Republican but also very small in population, they are also massively Hispanic. We have 3 formerly GOP leaning counties that are Democratic now thanks to the influx of Hispanics since 2000 (some counties have over 500% growth)

So yeah while saying I see signs is not hard proof, if anyone takes 5min to study the state since 2000 they would see why no major polling is being done. Obama is not stupid, he made his 1st win here and has come back repeatedly for a reason.

Obama knows that Iowa could very well be the swing state that kicks him over the 270 mark..