BotoxAgent
Member
still so pissed at Obama. He really shat the bed at the debate. Everyone has done their job except him when it matters. Ugh.
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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Red Blaster
Member
You may be a smelly Laker fan but at least you fight the good fight elsewhere
I thought today's polls are the first to exclude last Thursday which was a big day for Romney.
Debate Transcript said:
K.O.
This is the moment of the night that all the "Biden was rude" talk is trying to hide. The moment where Paul Ryan admitted that the stimulus created jobs and that he asked TWICE for stimulus money in private despite publicly saying the stimulus was bad.
Black Mamba
Member
The first polls the after the debate were good for Obama. Gallup and ras. unchanged or went up last Thurs. Rand went up. It was on Saturday we saw movement (friday polling)
Monday then I guess is when we'll see the results of the decline Romney had after the debate and the day after. That should start to factor in any increase, if there was one from the VP debate. If Obama does well then we should be okay or at least back to where we were pre-debate with Romney perhaps a bit higher (do to republicans not being considered undecided anymore) but with Obama still higher.
I wonder if we're ever going to get any polls that include third party candidate like Gary Johnson. Then there is the guy in Virginia. They certainly pull from Romney.
I wonder if we're ever going to get any polls that include third party candidate like Gary Johnson. Then there is the guy in Virginia. They certainly pull from Romney.
Fuuuuuuuck. The LV model for Mitt is almost at 50. No no. Can't have this.
Wait, wasn't everyone saying by today Romney's bounce should have faded?
Nate is also making the case that it's probably a bit wrong to assume that's going to happen, it seems.
Wait, I was sure that the consensus was that Thursday and Friday right after the debate were the strong Romney days while the weekend saw Obama improve. I am positive that was what people on this board were saying.
There you go again.
Me too. Now it's Monday.
Just keep moving the deadline I guess is how some people cope with it. Haha.
We were being forgetful if we did so. Look back in the thread and youll see that Obama ticked up in Gallup with the Thursday numbers.
DragonSworne
Banned
Has anyone been polled before?
I wish a pollster would call me
I wish a pollster would call me
PhoenixDark
Banned
Silver
I'll wait until Monday before pushing the point; by then it'll be pretty much undeniable whether Romney changed the projection of the race long term, or whether this was just a very long bump. But right now Romney is near 50% in Gallup against a sitting president, mere weeks from election. That's not irrelevant
I'll wait until Monday before pushing the point; by then it'll be pretty much undeniable whether Romney changed the projection of the race long term, or whether this was just a very long bump. But right now Romney is near 50% in Gallup against a sitting president, mere weeks from election. That's not irrelevant
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=Hpd
If Bams wins, this is what I think the EV's will look like. NH is a question mark to me so I just assumed worst case scenario for the time being.
I have a feeling Nov 6 is gonna be a long night.
If Bams wins, this is what I think the EV's will look like. NH is a question mark to me so I just assumed worst case scenario for the time being.
I have a feeling Nov 6 is gonna be a long night.
The first debate was over a week ago, I can't imagine Obama getting saved by some weekend magic this time. I think the polling overall suggests Mitt's performance put him right back in the game, and then some.
This'll probably be Obama's low point. There's no way he's going to shit the bed again in the next debate. He won't be declared winner and champion overall or anything like Romney got in the first one, but it'll likely be a nice comeback narrative since it'll be compared to his first bout. He'll grab some of his support back. He won't hit the high he got before, but no one should have thought he'd ever win like that.
Nothing is really going to happen between now and election day to sway it a ton either way, so Obama's not going to suddenly drop like a stone or anything. Both campaigns will play it relatively safe and just say the same stuff they have been saying.
And other than that Obama's got enough money and ammo to run some great ads in the swing states.
Nothing is really going to happen between now and election day to sway it a ton either way, so Obama's not going to suddenly drop like a stone or anything. Both campaigns will play it relatively safe and just say the same stuff they have been saying.
And other than that Obama's got enough money and ammo to run some great ads in the swing states.
It's definitely looking more and more like Romney's gains are more lasting than we'd hoped. I can see why people were cautioning folks like Diablos then, but I think there genuinely is cause for concern right now. Even Nate seems to agree that the "temporary Romney bounce" narrative doesn't seem to have much evidence in the polling.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
It would be so odd to see this election become a battle, since it has been a forgone conclusion for so long, I haven't really thought of it.
Regardless, until Romney goes back in time and makes sure the title of his op-ed resembles something closer to "Managed Bankruptcy is Best for Detroit" instead of "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt", Ohio will not be in play.
If it were within 2 or 3 points, maybe I would start sweating, but naahhhhh.
Regardless, until Romney goes back in time and makes sure the title of his op-ed resembles something closer to "Managed Bankruptcy is Best for Detroit" instead of "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt", Ohio will not be in play.
If it were within 2 or 3 points, maybe I would start sweating, but naahhhhh.
DragonSworne
Banned
So I asked my girlfriend last night "why Is Romney running for president?".
She's conservative but voted for Kerry and Obama last elections. She is leaning toward Romney but isn't committed. She was a poli sci major turned nurse major in college.
She couldn't answer the question... I think a lot a of people if asked that question will draws blanks too.
So what do you guys think? Why is Romney running for President?
She's conservative but voted for Kerry and Obama last elections. She is leaning toward Romney but isn't committed. She was a poli sci major turned nurse major in college.
She couldn't answer the question... I think a lot a of people if asked that question will draws blanks too.
So what do you guys think? Why is Romney running for President?
Hobbestetrician
Member
I can't take this shit. Too much doom.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Silver again
you meant the poll results on thursday were good, or the results from thursday were good? because the polls released on thursday would have only included up to october 3, which was still pre-debate. friday was the first day of aftermath from the debate.
Sirpopopop
Member
Ehh... according to Silver's projections, Ohio is within 2-3 points now.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...e-firewall-has-brittle-foundation/#more-35900
Cause he wants to be President.
to show up daddy.
The party who convinced the public and every "news" organization that weapons of mass destruction were in Iraq and we had to go to war are now the same party who are complaining that it took 2 weeks to tell the american people the correct intelligence behind the Libya attack.
Sometimes i don't like people.
Sometimes i don't like people.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Romney wants to do a few things:
Legacy.
The idea that he knows best what to do.
Cause his Dad dropped out and couldn't get it done.
Black Mamba
Member
No. I'm sure last week was good for Romney but it was t as good as the week prior which showed Obama drop that day.
I checked the numbers last night on Gallup and rand. Gallup stayed put. This indicated it was about the same as the one it replaced.
big movement came the second day. The media narrative drove this more than anything and it took a day to settle in.
It's so true. From Clinton to Biden, the Democratic party came out in spades to give Obama a huge advantage coming into the last month of campaigning and look at where we are. It's almost like a bad dream!
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
WHAT?!
Wow... OK, this really is getting serious.
Even still, I would be buying up Obama shares on inTrade left and right.
To be the first Mormon President.
I forget who it was, but someone said it was the same thing as Kennedy, whose father told him he didn't think Catholics were truly a part of America until they had a president representing them. Now, that's not to say Kennedy had other reasons, but I think that might be Mitt's overriding reason. That's really the only thing I can come up with. There certainly isn't an overarching ideology he abides by that he wishes to follow out, as evidenced by his views changing depending on who he's talking to and which political position he's going for. I don't think he really wants to change anything, for the sake of making it better. I feel like he probably jumped on the healthcare stuff in Massachusetts because it was a historic issue that he could ride into the White House (that frontline documentary kind of played that angle, too). So, even his biggest accomplishment doesn't seem to be done because he wants something better for the American people. It's just because he has ambitions.
If tomorrow Obama doesn't get a bit of a boost at least in RV on gallup then we'll know there's a bit of a problem since last Friday was a big polling day for Romney, and a lead despite the loss of that day would mean he's holding steady in the present. The bigger worry is that once last sunday's polling cycles out Obama will probably see a big single-day drop, since that seemed to be a sort of positive outlier for Obama.
But I think it's safe to say that either way we're going to have problems until the narrative changes, meaning Obama really needs to step up on Tuesday. If CNN is pushing an Obama comeback narrative on wednesday morning then Romney's good press will be erased and national polling will return to a Obama narrow lead. Finally, if Obama can win or tie the foreign policy debate then the election will pretty much be over for Romney.
If Obama loses the next two debates then Romney will take a decisive lead in the polls and it will be all about the ground operations in determining whether Obama can eke out a win.
But I think it's safe to say that either way we're going to have problems until the narrative changes, meaning Obama really needs to step up on Tuesday. If CNN is pushing an Obama comeback narrative on wednesday morning then Romney's good press will be erased and national polling will return to a Obama narrow lead. Finally, if Obama can win or tie the foreign policy debate then the election will pretty much be over for Romney.
If Obama loses the next two debates then Romney will take a decisive lead in the polls and it will be all about the ground operations in determining whether Obama can eke out a win.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Again, I'm shocked by this statement. Mason-Dixon had some terribly inaccurate polls during Obama-McCain.
TacticalFox88
Banned
Mitt Romney is a man who wants the TITLE of President of the United States, but absolutely NONE of the actual responsibilities.
Hmm..fair enough, though my head hurts trying to determine whether that gain last Friday was more reflective of a good Romney day dropping out.
DragonSworne
Banned
That's the problem I have. It seems like he just wants to be president to fill in a footnote in his résumé. It doesn't seem like any real agenda or issues he wants to solve or fix.
The presidency shouldn't be taken so lightly.
Silver isn't one to troll himself or his readers. I take him at his word when he makes projections like this. Could he be wrong? Sure. But I sincerely doubt it.
We've got less than a month to go and it's getting closer by the day, if not Mitt getting a slight lead every time a new poll drops. This is far beyond chicken little, there's real cause for concern.
speculawyer
Member
Ugh, these national numbers are scary. Hope Obama can eek it out with a map like this in the worst case scenario!
A win is a win. You could swap NH for Iowa or NV and O would still will by an even smaller margin.
Wisconsin seems to be holding well enough going off that link.
Black Mamba
Member
A good day for Romney dropped out but it wasn't that good based on the week prior.
Last thurs was the same. Good but not great. Friday was great.
If by Monday Obama doesn't tick up a bit it's time to worry.
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