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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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D

Dreamcaster

Banned
Loudninja said:
http://www.politico.com/playbook/
Click to expand...

Based on this, nothing will come of this debate - we can probably come up with what the 12 questions will be:

1 on Libya
1 on the 47%
1 on the (un)importance of the debt/deficit
1 on unemployment etc.

This will likely be Mitt's weakest debate, since he lacks that ability to connect on a personal level in 1-on-1 interactions, but maybe he will surprise. On things related to unemployment and income, I just don't know how Obama is going to get past basically saying "trust me, we brought the economy back from the brink, auto industry, etc."
 
P

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
codhand said:
Yeah, omg, it's up to our president to call someone out on their BS, lord help us.

He shoulda done it the first time, I want to see Romney beg for the mod to step in like he did at the republican debates.
Click to expand...

He attempted to do it the first time, but with the barrage of lies, it's quite difficult. No follow up questions basically means no moderation. It's kinda like the news media nowadays, no actual journalism, just a vehicle for the different party's talking points.
 
I

Incognito

Troll
Y2Kev said:
What does Colorado look like in terms of field offices for Obama? And do they have early voting?
Click to expand...

i actually worked in colorado for the obama campaign in 2008 (and was asked to come back this cycle) and i can tell you from first hand experience that no stone will go unturned, no phone call is too late, and no door deemed unsafe to knock in order to win the state. it is a very efficient operation consisting of 18-20 hour days spent coralling voters. you start at 8am and don't get back at the office until 7pm. then some extra phone calls and data till about 2-3am.

every community will have its own obama office, with its theme replicating that of the community which its in. at this point, more and more out of state volunteers will be joining the teams, will be given a quick training session, and sent out. and if iirc, early voting starts on oct 22. by then, all team leaders will know their zone better than their own neighborhood at home. i had multiple contacts in my zone that i could rely upon to feed me information about voting patterns or to suggest people our lists may have overlooked.

and if you're on the list, you will be contacted every.single.day until you vote. we know when you vote (because of the voter rolls) so there's no point in lying to us. i would constantly tell my team members and voters themselves that there was no point in telling me you voted if you didn't, because we would just be back the next day.

and we knew by the middle of the second week of early voting that obama had basically won the state. our office was a top performer in the state so we were honored with a meet and greet with michelle obama, then gov salazer, sen udall and stage seating for obama's rally.

from what i'm told about this year's operation, it's basically 2008 on steroids. i have friends in VA, OH, and chicago and they tell me 2012 makes 2008 look antiquated. obama will not lose because his people didn't turn out.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
quadriplegicjon said:
He attempted to do it the first time, but with the barrage of lies, it's quite difficult. No follow up questions basically means no moderation. It's kinda like the news media nowadays, no actual journalism, just a vehicle for the different party's talking points.
Click to expand...

No...see the clip about his talking about Romney not giving any specifics...it fell so flat.

FL/National Hispanic Poll. Big drop in Latino support for Obama in FL, National looks good.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nake...ispanic-fl-voter-poll-obama-51-romney-44.html

Obama is ahead of Romney 51-44 percent among Hispanics, a relatively narrow lead that could spell trouble for a Democratic campaign that’s counting on minority support as non-Hispanic white voters flock to the Republican ticket in droves.

In the rest of the country, however, it’s a different story for Obama when it comes to likely Hispanic voters.

The president wallops Romney 66-31 percent overall across the U.S., according to the poll’s national survey of 1,000 likely Hispanic voters. It was taken Oct. 10-11 along with the 720-voter poll in Florida.
Click to expand...
 
G

GaimeGuy

Volunteer Deputy Campaign Director, Obama for America '16
Dax01 said:
What in the flying fuck is this. I got redistricted out of NC-04?! David Price is no longer my representative?! WHAT

*$@*$@&*!*)HUIP3J9(*#$*H(@HF($*(H%FBDKJBF&@*^#BH@#
Click to expand...

I went from having Keith Ellison to having John Kline as my rep :/
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
This is so not a north eastern phenomenon. In nj and ny I have never even heard of early voting.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Frank the Great said:
so is early voting done in-person? or by mail?

i'm also in nj and have no experience with this.
Click to expand...

Each state is different. Some states like VA do not allow no excuse early voting at all, some states like CO allow early voting no matter what.

Its confusing really. There should just be a one month period in each state where early voting can be done.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
This makes me want to check to see what party registration is like in CO. Obama probably had Iowa and Ohio (and I think that wins it for him) but CO would close the deal. And polls close at 10 so I'd get to go to bed earlier.
 
I

Incognito

Troll
Frank the Great said:
so is early voting done in-person? or by mail?

i'm also in nj and have no experience with this.
Click to expand...

both. usually mail is preferred by the elderly although it is very, very susceptible to fraud. for instance, mail ballots are hand delivered by the postal worker yet the ballots are easy to spot since they're so large. so all you do is follow the postman and after he's delivered the mail ballots you just go up the houses and ask the person (again, usually elderly) if they would like "help" with their ballot. i've worked on enough campaigns to know that whoever controls the mail ballots usually wins the election.
 
M

markatisu

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
No...see the clip about his talking about Romney not giving any specifics...it fell so flat.

FL/National Hispanic Poll. Big drop in Latino support for Obama in FL, National looks good.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nake...ispanic-fl-voter-poll-obama-51-romney-44.html
Click to expand...

I would not be concerned, that is to be expected because FL is not Hispanic, FL is Cuban and that is completely against every other state in America.

There are classes taught in Universities (I took one of them for my masters in Latino studies) about how Cubans mess up everything politically for Hispanics lol
 
M

makingmusic476

Member
I found out about a month ago that we have a week long early voting period here in Louisiana, which shocked me. October 23-30. We go to the nearest office (one per parish?) and vote like on election day. It's right by where I work, so I'll probably be making use of it at lunch one day.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Baraka in the White House said:
I'm doubting Obama will be declared a winner in the debate even if he Bidenstomps Romney. The only way it would happen at this point is if Romney becomes flustered and/or gets weird with the attendees. Otherwise the media will consider it a tie at best, which is fine really because it's not like this debate is gonna change a bunch of minds either way, it only has the potential to re-energize disillusioned voters.
Click to expand...
I love that term. "Bidenstomps." So goddamn perfect.

Y2Kev said:
This makes me want to check to see what party registration is like in CO. Obama probably had Iowa and Ohio (and I think that wins it for him) but CO would close the deal. And polls close at 10 so I'd get to go to bed earlier.
Click to expand...
Man.. I'd want to stay up late and relish the reactions all over the place. If I didn't have to work the following day, I'd be up into the following morning until I passed out, haha!

...

Thanks for the info, makingmusic. I've gotta look-up where my voting place is.. this'll be my first time voting back at home. Feels good.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Incognito said:
i actually worked in colorado for the obama campaign in 2008 (and was asked to come back this cycle) and i can tell you from first hand experience that no stone will go unturned, no phone call is too late, and no door deemed unsafe to knock in order to win the state. it is a very efficient operation consisting of 18-20 hour days spent coralling voters. you start at 8am and don't get back at the office until 7pm. then some extra phone calls and data till about 2-3am.

every community will have its own obama office, with its theme replicating that of the community which its in. at this point, more and more out of state volunteers will be joining the teams, will be given a quick training session, and sent out. and if iirc, early voting starts on oct 22. by then, all team leaders will know their zone better than their own neighborhood at home. i had multiple contacts in my zone that i could rely upon to feed me information about voting patterns or to suggest people our lists may have overlooked.

and if you're on the list, you will be contacted every.single.day until you vote. we know when you vote (because of the voter rolls) so there's no point in lying to us. i would constantly tell my team members and voters themselves that there was no point in telling me you voted if you didn't, because we would just be back the next day.

and we knew by the middle of the second week of early voting that obama had basically won the state. our office was a top performer in the state so we were honored with a meet and greet with michelle obama, then gov salazer, sen udall and stage seating for obama's rally.

from what i'm told about this year's operation, it's basically 2008 on steroids. i have friends in VA, OH, and chicago and they tell me 2012 makes 2008 look antiquated. obama will not lose because his people didn't turn out.
Click to expand...
Amazing, thanks for the insight. That ground game is incredible.

And I think CO will be really close. Gonna really have to get the youth/Latino votes out to win it.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Not sure if this has been posted, but Obama is now up to 84% probability over at Princeton.

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/15/the-passing-storm/

In national polls, the race has swung back three points since the Presidential debate to a narrow Obama lead. This return has been steady over time, and so the role of the VP debate is unclear. Combined with state polls, the data suggest that the effect of Mitt Romney’s performance was an instantaneous jump of 5.5 points, which has now subsided by 3 points, close to August levels. The state poll meta-analysis has stopped its decline, blocked by Ohio. Today, President Obama’s November re-elect probability is 84%.
Click to expand...

And the author's "hurricane strike zone" graph:
EV_history_13oct2012.png
 
M

makingmusic476

Member
HylianTom said:
I love that term. "Bidenstomps." So goddamn perfect.


Man.. I'd want to stay up late and relish the reactions all over the place. If I didn't have to work the following day, I'd be up into the following morning until I passed out, haha!

...

Thanks for the info, makingmusic. I've gotta look-up where my voting place is.. this'll be my first time voting back at home. Feels good.
Click to expand...
I'm on my phone, so I don't have the link, but a quick Google of "early voting Louisiana" should bring up the page on the secretary of state's site with all that info.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
makingmusic476 said:
I'm on my phone, so I don't have the link, but a quick Google of "early voting Louisiana" should bring up the page on the secretary of state's site with all that info.
Click to expand...
Just found my place - three blocks away from my hospital, right next to City Hall. Looks like it'll be on my lunch break agenda next week!
 
M

Measley

Junior Member
gkryhewy said:
Actually they showed a recent GWU/Politico poll for "battleground states", which showed Romey up, rather than their own swing state number, which shows Obama +5. They basically cherrypicked every internal nuance that was favorable to Romney.

Amazing.

They did mention, but not show, their own headline number at the beginning of the piece: 'obama up three but this is within the margin of error and other polls show romney ahead'
Click to expand...

Its all about the narrative.

I wonder what the narrative will be after the second and third debates. The media must have its ratings leading right up to election day.

After that, it's all about the "fiscal cliff".
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Arg is basically completely fucking up everything. Nate has said previously it is no good. He has an article called arg my brain hurts on the old 538.
 
P

PistolGrip

sex vacation in Guam
cartoon_soldier said:
Ezra nailing this

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...a-lose-the-vision-thing/?wprss=rss_ezra-klein

1:
One recurring problem for presidential candidates is that they don’t know how much they can’t do, so they overpromise. This happened to Obama in 2008. The problem for presidents is the reverse: Knowing exactly how much they can’t do and fearful of again overpromising, they lose the ability to inspire. This is happening to Obama now.
Click to expand...
Completely agree.

cartoon_soldier said:
2:
Obama’s American Jobs Act is still the best — and most detailed — plan on the table to create jobs. His health-care law, which will begin in earnest in 2014 assuming Obama is reelected, will cover tens of millions of Americans and transform the delivery of medical care. Indeed, just this month, the law began linking Medicare hospital payments to value rather than volume, and penalizing hospitals with high numbers of preventable readmissions. It’s a huge accomplishment, but not one you’ll hear Obama mention on the campaign trail. When Obama gets specific about policies these days, it’s usually about Romney’s plans, not his own.
Click to expand...
This complete bullshit. Erza is making up an argument to fill space. Lets face it, people are too dumb to understand policy. When the president has talks about the benefits, the media pretends its not happening to in order to be able to say... Well the President needs to explain what is going on... wtf...?

cartoon_soldier said:
3:
It might be that polls and focus groups have given the Obama campaign reason to retreat from presenting a bold agenda for a second term. But the dulling of the vision has led to the dulling of the candidate. A quick glance at the polls suggests voters don’t seem to like that, either.
Click to expand...
This is true.
 
B

Baraka in the White House

2-Terms of Kombat
I loathe giving the media their due but this will indeed be an interesting debate. Romney voters are clearly pumped due to Obama's less-than-desirable performance and the ensuing Democratic freak out so that genie is already out of the bottle. Will another Romney "victory" pump them up even more? Will it even matter? How many more unhappy Republicans/retarded undecideds can Romney woo in less than a month?

FIND OUT NEXT WEEK.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Yeah, I really can't wait for this debate... there's so much riding on it and Bams has quite a lot to do. He needs to rebut Rombot's BS while also attacking his policies and ably advance his own agenda, something he's struggled a bit with lately. I really hope that debate prep this past weekend has helped him.
 
T

thefro

Member
Brinbe said:
Yeah, I really can't wait for this debate... there's so much riding on it and Bams has quite a lot to do. He needs to rebut Rombot's BS while also attacking his policies and ably advance his own agenda, something he's struggled a bit with lately. I really hope that debate prep this past weekend has helped him.
Click to expand...

With the Town Hall format, he basically has to really advance his own agenda/plans first, and then counter-punch Romney after Romney makes the first move to attack.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
I can't wait for this election to be over. This year has been fun, but everyone's been too bummed out around here.

Can't wait for Obama's second term to begin so everyone can complain that he isn't the Liberal Jesus the entire time!
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Tim-E said:
I can't wait for this election to be over. This year has been fun, but everyone's been too bummed out around here.

Can't wait for Obama's second term to begin so everyone can complain that he isn't the Liberal Jesus the entire time!
Click to expand...
I'm ready to see the filibuster rules adjusted, followed by a flooding of the court benches with tons and tons of young liberals, ready to serve in their positions for decades. Obama's mark on the judicial branch could end-up being perhaps his most enormous legacy, as far as policy is concerned.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
HylianTom said:
I'm ready to see the filibuster rules adjusted, followed by a flooding of the court benches with tons and tons of young liberals, ready to serve in their positions for decades. Obama's mark on the judicial branch could end-up being perhaps his most enormous legacy, as far as policy is concerned.
Click to expand...

Having someone there to make sure that conservatives can't be appointed to the court is reason enough to keep voting democrat.
 
C

codhand

Member
OK, Drudge has now officially spun every single fucking moderator. STFU already. They hated Lehrer right until it didn't fit the narrative
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
RCP average is tied. Do those guys just use the most recent polls? Seems WaPo/ABC had a big effect (which seems wrong based on the internals)
 
T

Tim-E

Member
codhand said:
OK, Drudge has now officially spun every single fucking moderator. STFU already. They hated Lehrer right until it didn't fit the narrative
Click to expand...

He's one of those commie public television people, but since Romney 'won' his debate then he's great and a shining example of how great a moderator can be!!!
 
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