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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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L

Loudninja

Member
On Sunday, Obama began debate prep around 10 a.m., reading briefing books and practicing for Tuesday's session, which will feature questions from actual voters—not from a mainstream media moderator who might more safely be brushed off.The president's prep team is much the same, except for the addition of Ben Rhodes, who as deputy national security adviser for strategic communications is helping to prepare the president for foreign policy questions.
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Psaki also twice underlined that Obama would highlight Romney's pro-life stance, citing the former Massachusetts governor's "belief that women should not be able to make choices about their own healthcare" and charging that running mate Ryan had left "women worried about their ability to make choices about their own health care."
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http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/...ier-showing-debate-2-144747513--election.html
 
Dude Abides

Dude Abides

Banned
HylianTom said:
I'm ready to see the filibuster rules adjusted, followed by a flooding of the court benches with tons and tons of young liberals, ready to serve in their positions for decades. Obama's mark on the judicial branch could end-up being perhaps his most enormous legacy, as far as policy is concerned.
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He's done an absolutely shitty job of it so far. Truly horrendous. It's particularly disappointing for someone who, by virtue of his background, should understand what the GOP and Federalist Society have been able to accomplish in transforming the federal bench over the past 2-3 decades and how important it is to push back against that.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/18/u...ng-seats-in-the-judiciary.html?pagewanted=all
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Cloudy said:
RCP average is tied. Do those guys just use the most recent polls? Seems WaPo/ABC had a big effect (which seems wrong based on the internals)
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What's wrong with the ABC internals? Party ID is a bullshit nonfactor, remember?

I'd also note for Mr. "Obama's not leading in any tracking polls except RAND" that he's leading in Ipsos.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Tim-E said:
Having someone there to make sure that conservatives can't be appointed to the court is reason enough to keep voting democrat.
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Dude Abides said:
He's done an absolutely shitty job of it so far. Truly horrendous. It's particularly disappointing for someone who, by virtue of his background, should understand what the GOP and Federalist Society have been able to accomplish in transforming the federal bench over the past 2-3 decades and how important it is to push back against that.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/18/u...ng-seats-in-the-judiciary.html?pagewanted=all
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I am disappointed, but still hold hope that we'll see this issue better addressed in a second term. To me, the courts are a #1 reason to vote for him. He'd be gone in 5 years, but his appointees will be there when I'm into my 70s, maybe even 80s.

The courts are a trump card in my eyes. Sure, some cavemen Republicans may win elections in the future, but a well-stocked judiciary being able to knock-down their terrible legislation is of, well, supreme importance.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Loudninja said:
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/...ier-showing-debate-2-144747513--election.html
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Thanks, that was a good insight into what they're planning for Tuesday. Gonna focus back a bit on those cultural issues and try to widen up that gender gap once again. Which is smart I suppose, since if Romney tries to tack back to the center on those issues, he'll have the conservatives on his ass and his contradictory comments from the primaries and his previous campaigns are already out there.

And we'll see if Bams can shed some of that professorial tone/response, but I doubt it, that's just who he is.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/15/the-passing-storm/#more-7552

In national polls, the race has swung back three points since the Presidential debate to a narrow Obama lead. This return has been steady over time, and so the role of the VP debate is unclear. Combined with state polls, the data suggest that the effect of Mitt Romney’s performance was an instantaneous jump of 5.5 points, which has now subsided back to where polls were in August. The decline in the state poll meta-analysis has been blocked by Ohio. Today, President Obama’s November re-elect probability is 84%
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Hopium!
 
C

codhand

Member
Cloudy said:
In national polls, the race has swung back three points since the Presidential debate to a narrow Obama lead. This return has been steady over time, and so the role of the VP debate is unclear. Combined with state polls, the data suggest that the effect of Mitt Romney’s performance was an instantaneous jump of 5.5 points, which has now subsided back to where polls were in August. The decline in the state poll meta-analysis has been blocked by Ohio. Today, President Obama’s November re-elect probability is 84%
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Getting to be crunch-time for concern trolling.
 
L

Loudninja

Member
Brinbe said:
Thanks, that was a good insight into what they're planning for Tuesday. Gonna focus back a bit on those cultural issues and try to widen up that gender gap once again. Which is smart I suppose, since if Romney tries to tack back to the center on those issues, he'll have the conservatives on his ass and his contradictory comments from the primaries and his previous campaigns are already out there.

And we'll see if Bams can shed some of that professorial tone/response, but I doubt it, that's just who he is.
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Obama fundraising email:
"Listen, this race is tied," Obama writes in the fundraising appeal. "What we do over the next 22 days will determine not just the next four years, but what this country looks like for decades to come. That's what I'll be fighting for up on that stage tomorrow night -- but I can't do it alone."
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http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/obama-in-fundraising-email-listen-this-race-is
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Nate on state vs national polling and making sense of thee

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...4-breaking-the-state-national-poll-stalemate/

If the current polls hold, predicting the election outcome will boil down to making a series of educated guesses about the relationship between state and national polls, and between the Electoral College and the popular vote.

There have been plenty of elections before when the outcome was highly uncertain down the stretch run or on Election Day itself. But I am not sure that there has been one where different types of polls pointed in opposite directions. Anyone in my business who is not a bit terrified by this set of facts is either lying to himself — or he doesn’t know what he’s doing.
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LOL. So much focus on the debates when just 3 weeks ago, the entire mantra from both sides was, "debates don't matter!"
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This entire Election is a big forget how the past Elections worked/went event.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
In tea-leaf land, I thought I'd note that Yglesias and now Chait have been running articles suggesting that the President's best plan to deal with Republican intransigence is to wait til January, allow sequestration and the tax cut expirations, and negotiate from that position.

ny mag said:
You might surmise from all this that Obama is simply living in a dream world. That is the conclusion drawn by several of the smartest liberal political analysts I know. I have a different conclusion: Obama does have a plan to break the legislative impasse and settle the long-term struggle over the scope of government. It does not rest on the GOP’s coming to its senses and thinking of the national good. The plan is the very opposite of naïve. And he can put it into effect even more quickly than Romney could enact his own plan.

Here is how it will happen. On the morning of November 7, a reelected President Obama will do … nothing. For the next 53 days, nothing. And then, on January 1, 2013, we will all awake to a different, substantially more liberal country. The Bush tax cuts will have disappeared, restoring Clinton-era tax rates and flooding government coffers with revenue to fund its current operations for years to come. The military will be facing dire budget cuts that shake the military-industrial complex to its core. It will be a real-world approximation of the old liberal bumper-sticker fantasy in which schools have all the money they require and the Pentagon needs to hold a bake sale.

All this can come to pass because, while Obama has spent the last two years surrendering short-term policy concessions, he has been quietly hoarding a fortune in the equivalent of a political trust fund that comes due on the first of the year. At that point, he will reside in a political world he finds at most mildly uncomfortable and the Republicans consider a hellish dystopia. Then he’ll be ready to make a deal....

This is not the story you have heard about the budget. You have probably heard a terrifying tale of dysfunction and impending doom, with the catchphrase “the fiscal cliff” used by budget wonks to describe all the automatic changes scheduled for January 1. It’s a story of disaster that could arrive by accident and must be prevented at all costs. Every aspect of this narrative is inaccurate....

It’s true that should all this come to pass and Congress does nothing at all, allowing all automatic deficit reductions to stay permanently, then our economy would be hit by a powerful shock—a massive anti-stimulus. This is the outcome that terrifies moderate liberals like Howard Fineman, who warns that the nation is about to “go over the fiscal cliff with no hang glider.”

But here is a case where a bad metaphor has caused everybody to think about the matter in exactly the wrong way. When you walk off a cliff, the first step is your last. There is no such thing as falling halfway down a cliff. But the “fiscal cliff” is not a cliff at all. The economic damage is cumulative. It is the opposite of the debt ceiling, when the doomsday clock ticked down to a moment of sudden calamity. A full year of inaction would do a lot of damage, but a week, a month, or even a couple of months would not. The president would have enough control over the mechanics of the budget to delay the effects of higher taxes and spending cuts in order to cushion the blow to the economy. Even if the tax hikes and spending cuts go into effect, any deal that gets signed later could be retroactive. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve could also take emergency action to keep the recovery afloat....

In essence, the main domestic work of the past three presidents—Clinton, Bush, and Obama—is all on the ballot this November. Whichever party wins will have within its grasp the power to break the back of the other’s political-economic macro-strategy. Obama and Romney may like to say they can work their will through agreement and reconciliation with the other party. But the tools that will be at their disposal are too blunt even to ­acknowledge.
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Chait dances around the topic of whether he has an administration feed for this story, but he works awfully hard to put together a case for jumping off the fiscal cliff and building our socialist parachute on the way down. I wouldn't be surprised....

http://nymag.com/news/politics/elections-2012/obama-romney-economic-plans-2012-10/

edit: It also noted that Romney is widely expected to enact the Ryan Plan on his first day, which would explain why he doesn't want to talk about anything ever.
 
B

Baraka in the White House

2-Terms of Kombat
AlteredBeast said:
LOL. So much focus on the debates when just 3 weeks ago, the entire mantra from both sides was, "debates don't matter!"
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I'm still not entirely convinced they could ever decide this election. I'm fully prepared to eat crow but I just don't think Romney can bullshit enough to win over an enormous treasure trove of undecideds and shake up the electoral math.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
AlteredBeast said:
LOL. So much focus on the debates when just 3 weeks ago, the entire mantra from both sides was, "debates don't matter!"
Click to expand...

Seriously. I still don't think they matter. However, the media narrative of them in today's 24/7 and social media coverage does.

Obama's "advantage" is lowered expectations this time lol
 
empty vessel

empty vessel

Member
Dude Abides said:
He's done an absolutely shitty job of it so far. Truly horrendous. It's particularly disappointing for someone who, by virtue of his background, should understand what the GOP and Federalist Society have been able to accomplish in transforming the federal bench over the past 2-3 decades and how important it is to push back against that.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/18/u...ng-seats-in-the-judiciary.html?pagewanted=all
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Hear, hear.

The most infuriating bit: "Mr. Obama’s record stems in part from a decision at the start of his presidency to make judicial nominations a lower political priority, according to documents and interviews with more than a dozen current and former administration officials and with court watchers from across the political spectrum." Mind-boggling, given that shaping the federal courts is about the only thing a president is good for.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
Cloudy said:
Seriously. I still don't think they matter.
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Polling after the last one destroyed that myth. It's why team Obama is focusing big time for this one. Debates have had a huge impact in the 2012 race so far, both in GOP primaries and general.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Loudninja said:
I still think they dont,I only post this stuff for others.

Romney still has very few paths to victory.
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Yup. At this point, I'm operating under the assumption that Ohio is gone for Romney, and that he's going through the motions there so that his backers and voters don't freak-out and lose faith.

With Ohio gone, to say that Romney has few paths is dead-on. He'd have to prevent Obama (now sitting at 265EVs) from winning pretty much all of the other swing states, save for perhaps New Hampshire. I don't see that happening.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
Cheebo said:
Polling after the last one destroyed that myth. It's why team Obama is focusing big time for this one. Debates have had a huge impact in the 2012 race so far, both in GOP primaries and general.
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It's not the actual debate that caused Obama swoon in the polls. It's the unanimous criticism from all sides. Obama is a pretty serious guy and difficult to mock without blatant racism but suddenly he was a punching bag and laughingstock for a week. That's what matters.

Honestly even Reverend Wright didn't give Obama as much negative coverage from all angles as a passive debate
 
L

Loudninja

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
So Ann Romney is in PA today
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Ok?
HylianTom said:
Yup. At this point, I'm operating under the assumption that Ohio is gone for Romney, and that he's going through the motions there so that his backers and voters don't freak-out and lose faith.

With Ohio gone, to say that Romney has few paths is dead-on. He'd have to prevent Obama (now sitting at 265EVs) from winning pretty much all of the other swing states, save for perhaps New Hampshire. I don't see that happening.
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Yeah,with early voting going on in alot of these swing state its a major problem.
 
K

kirblar

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
Nate on state vs national polling and making sense of thee

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...4-breaking-the-state-national-poll-stalemate/





This entire Election is a big forget how the past Elections worked/went event.
Click to expand...
It's more that Nate hasn't been able to think on the margins here.
The most infuriating bit: "Mr. Obama’s record stems in part from a decision at the start of his presidency to make judicial nominations a lower political priority, according to documents and interviews with more than a dozen current and former administration officials and with court watchers from across the political spectrum." Mind-boggling, given that shaping the federal courts is about the only thing a president is good for.
Click to expand...
You can't do anything about the Senate logjamming, though.
 
J

Jackson50

Member
HylianTom said:
I am disappointed, but still hold hope that we'll see this issue better addressed in a second term. To me, the courts are a #1 reason to vote for him. He'd be gone in 5 years, but his appointees will be there when I'm into my 70s, maybe even 80s.

The courts are a trump card in my eyes. Sure, some cavemen Republicans may win elections in the future, but a well-stocked judiciary being able to knock-down their terrible legislation is of, well, supreme importance.
Click to expand...
Yeah. The complacency on judicial appointments, as I've previously noted, is one of the bigger failures of his first term. The judiciary is one of the few areas where a president's influence endures.
Loudninja said:
I still think they dont,I only post this stuff for others.

Romney still has very few paths to victory.
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I'll wait until after the election to make a firm determination. But I'd not be surprised if, once we escape the noise, the debates only yielded a nominal effect on the election.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Oblivion said:
Bill Nye feels he's failed as an educator because Republicans are stupid.

:(
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Well . . . although many of them are stupid, many of them may know better but just don't give a shit. And that is probably worse.

If you make a lot of money from something, if your livelihood is completely dependent on it, if you get a gigantic pile of political donations from something . . . well, you are likely to stop caring about the bad parts. You'll find a way to rationalize the bad things out of existence.


Akin . . . he really is a dumbshit. Please boot him MO!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wSHhTjcbpxM
 
S

Sirpopopop

Member
HylianTom said:
I'm ready to see the filibuster rules adjusted, followed by a flooding of the court benches with tons and tons of young liberals, ready to serve in their positions for decades. Obama's mark on the judicial branch could end-up being perhaps his most enormous legacy, as far as policy is concerned.
Click to expand...

Wait?

Barack Obama is a liberal.

You could have fooled me!
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
HylianTom said:
I'm ready to see the filibuster rules adjusted, followed by a flooding of the court benches with tons and tons of young liberals, ready to serve in their positions for decades. Obama's mark on the judicial branch could end-up being perhaps his most enormous legacy, as far as policy is concerned.
Click to expand...
And how does that happen with republican control of the house
 
S

speculawyer

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
So Ann Romney is in PA today
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I think they realized that she is not helping and they only send her to places they've already conceded to make it look like they haven't conceded.

Edit: Wow. I just got a banner ad for Regent University. LOL. If a school advertises, you probably don't want to go there.
 
L

Loudninja

Member
speculawyer said:
I think they realized that she is not helping and they only send her to places they've already conceded to make it look like they haven't conceded.

Edit: Wow. I just got a banner ad for Regent University. LOL. If a school advertises, you probably don't want to go there.
Click to expand...
Sounds about right.
 
G

gcubed

Member
kirblar said:
It's more that Nate hasn't been able to think on the margins here.

You can't do anything about the Senate logjamming, though.
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I agree with the one user comment in that story.

One key factor that never shows up in these polls is that enthusiasm and support for Obama has never been high. Democrats tolerate Obama, who has governed farther to the right than Reagan on tax policy, domestic surveillance and gun control, among others. A lot of the freefall Obama went through after the debate was because his own people, more so even than undecideds, were just sickened by the sight of the same old passive president who has done nothing to put Congress on the griddle over his jobs plan and has been a terrible advocate his very successful but too-small stimulus. Obama needs to show conviction. I think some of the polling after the debate reflected likely Obama voters sending him a very displeased message that he had better step up. In the end, they would vote for him anyway. Right now they want to see leadership before admitting that to pollsters. Obama has campaigned pretty well of late. Now he has to show his own built-in voters that he wants the job.
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After the first debate if I am to take Romney at face value i'm voting for generic candidate 1 or generic candidate 2. After Romney completely discarded everything he's said over the last year I'm left with seeing someone interested and someone disinterested. Obama did nothing to remind people who Romney is and his first term did little to make me want to vote again
 
C

codhand

Member
Cheebo said:
Debates have had a huge impact in the 2012 race so far, in GOP primaries
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Explain this one, I thought Romney won via carpet bombing ads, and not running out of cash, he had just as many debate flubs as successes. Not sure the primary debates in and of themselves mattered much except to generate ratings and hype, I mean there were 45 friggin debates, they couldn't have all mattered that much, or we would've seen a lot less of them.
 
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