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[Zzoram]

GOP would filibuster the ever-loving shit out of any Obama nominee in that instance.

Filibuster is stupid and just leads to ridiculous gridlock.

 

[strobogo]

(finally got to a computer where I could see the map)
I think we have Iowa in hand almost as much as Ohio as well, but I'm eagerly awaiting some fresh polling to confirm this.

As long as there's a good 10 or 20EV buffer against GOP shenanigans, I'd feel pretty good about things. If there were a popular/electoral split, I could see some truly desperate GOP governors or secretaries of state refusing to certify election results, with bullshit talk of violence, revolution, court battles, etc etc. I wouldn't put anything past 'em.

Semi-related aside: I'm almost convinced that much of Romney's rise has come from larger margins in already-red states. If you mention Obama out in rural areas down here for instance, people begin snarling and foaming at the mouth like rabid animals, and Romney endeared himself to these folks by fighting Obama in that first debate. Before, they were kinda lukewarm to Romney.

I think that is kind of a given. There are a lot of people who were going to vote for Romney just because he isn't Obama, but weren't excited enough about him to show any enthusiasm in polls or signs/shirts. And after the first debate, a lot of those people were impressed enough to get kind of excited to have a guy who will talk down the president.

 

[Forever]

So apparently Kagan is a match for Scalia in terms of legal prose, which is very important since that was the role that Stevens used to fill for the liberal wing.

Obama's selection of justices is amazing. He finds great picks that even the Republicans can't object to.

Is it because he was a constitutional law professor?

 

[HylianTom]

Filibuster is stupid and just leads to ridiculous gridlock.

I don't mind the filibuster, so long as the senators actually.. umm.. filibuster. Let 'em get their asses on the floor and force them to hold it, instead of caving to the mere threat.

We talk about "optics" as one of our big buzzwords this year.. well, the American people should be able to get a good look at the GOP's senators actively holding-up widely popular pieces of legislation. It'd be a fanastic visual piece for voters to consider.

 

[Black Mamba]

Black Mamba:

"Doing nothing" isn't really an option, but plays into the Republicans hands in sabotaging Obama's second term immediately.



The economy was slowing down when Clinton left office.

Oh, I agree they can still make an impact. But over the 4 years, it will still be a plus for Obama/Dems and they can't stop that.

That said, I don't believe they'd allow the Bush Tax cuts to go up for the middle class (whether it's a new tax plan or extending it) or allow the fiscal cliff to happen. If they even tried, I think the Republican Party would be done.

 

[Jackson50]

Why is the Republican sampling so low?

edit: While I'd love for Dems to get the House back I think best case scenario here is Obama re-elected and 50+ Dem Senate seats held.

I could only venture a guess. But the outcome isn't dissimilar from other polls, so it doesn't appear problematic.

Gore lost after 8 years of prosperous Clinton. Anything can happen and usually does.

Hm, yes. Anything usually does happen.

Gore's performance is instructive because, ignoring he won the popular vote, he proved the economy isn't always determinative. He underperformed relative to the economy, and it cost him the election. Had he ran an average campaign, his vote share would probably have increased by a few percent.

I've heard it argued that between challengers, incumbents and successors, the successor has the most difficulty in approaching the presidency.

There's some evidence a candidate suffers after their party has held the presidency for two or more terms. Many election forecasts will incorporate an incumbency variable to account for the effect. It seems intuitive, although there's not enough data to make a confident inference.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I don't mind the filibuster, so long as the senators actually.. umm.. filibuster. Let 'em get their asses on the floor and force them to hold it, instead of caving to the mere threat.

We talk about "optics" as one of our big buzzwords this year.. well, the American people should be able to get a good look at the GOP's senators actively holding-up widely popular pieces of legislation. It'd be a fanastic visual piece for voters to consider.

Can't wait for the filibuster to be changed so when Obama pushes through his Hey Dumbass States, Hire More Teachers, Police and Firefighters Bill the Republicans will have to give speeches on why it would kill America.

 

[Angry Fork]

How will you guys react if Obama does the same in the 2nd debate or worse lol.

 

[thekad]

Ghaleon has given me hope that the filibuster is on its way out.

Oh, I agree they can still make an impact. But over the 4 years, it will still be a plus for Obama/Dems and they can't stop that.

Not necessarily. A double dip recession along with continued Republican intransigence could throw us into the credit crisis Ron Paul and Paul Ryan have been praying for all these years.

 

[edible_candle]

How will you guys react if Obama does the same in the 2nd debate or worse lol.

Likely mayhem. Death and destruction. End of the world, sky is falling.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

How will you guys react if Obama does the same in the 2nd debate or worse lol.

Probably die...lol

I don't know...wait for more polls first then get ready for a Romney presidency

 

[GhaleonEB]

wait what the hell is going on with their sample:

Seems okay to me. To rearrange for ease of comparison:

33-22-37 percent among the general population
34-25-36 percent among registered voters
35-26-33 percent among likely voters

39-32-29 percent partisan divisions in the 2008 exit poll

The LV model is D+9, and was D+7 in the general in 2008. However, there are more self-proclaimed independents, who have grown in number as they stopped identifying as Republican, but still vote the same. So that would put it about even as far as the ideological spread goes. It's a pattern we've seen in a number of polls this cycle.

Edit: the overall trend reflects this shift: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/party-identification

 

[Thagomizer]

How will you guys react if Obama does the same in the 2nd debate or worse lol.

Considering Town Halls are his thing while Romney really doesn't do well in them, and the last debate lit a fire under his ass, I would be stunned if he does anywhere near as poorly in this debate as the first.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Considering Obama took the entire House caucus behind the woodshed in a debate like this and Town Halls are his thing while Romney really doesn't do well in them, and the last debate lit a fire under his ass, I would be stunned if he does anywhere near as poorly in this debate as the first.

That's what people fucking said before the first debate...Romney sucks at them, etc. Obama is awesome...he will wipe the floor.

 

[HylianTom]

How will you guys react if Obama does the same in the 2nd debate or worse lol.

I'd get really nervous, no doubt. But panic wouldn't set in until I saw some bad Ohio polling.

My hunch is that, with another bad debate, we'd be heading towards a 2000-style photo finish in the Electoral College. Scary stuff.

 

[watershed]

How will you guys react if Obama does the same in the 2nd debate or worse lol.

Then he deserves the huge drop in the polls that will be sure to follow.

 

[ISOM]

That's what people fucking said before the first debate...Romney sucks at them, etc. Obama is awesome...he will wipe the floor.

Will people move on already, the debate is tomorrow. Obama will either do great, fine or bad there is no point of continuing to talk about the previous debate.

 

[speculawyer]

How will you guys react if Obama does the same in the 2nd debate or worse lol.

Well a lot of people better brace themselves because he is who he is. He may be try to turn it up a bit but he is by nature the professorial guy. He will speak the way he speaks.

But he has got to pick up the pace a bit. You only get so much time so he needs to get more points out per minute instead of drawing things out. He needs to make a note each time Romney spews BS and challenge it. I know people complained about Biden's laughing but at least Biden would not let BS stand. He knocked them down repeated (and he still didn't get them all).


I don't think Biden's performance will directly have a big impact on the election but if Obama learns from it, then maybe it will have a huge indirect effect.

 

[Diablos]

Eh if you look at Bams from 08 debating McCain -- he just needs to channel that.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Oh, I agree they can still make an impact. But over the 4 years, it will still be a plus for Obama/Dems and they can't stop that.

That said, I don't believe they'd allow the Bush Tax cuts to go up for the middle class (whether it's a new tax plan or extending it) or allow the fiscal cliff to happen. If they even tried, I think the Republican Party would be done.

lol

Explain. If they obstruct and the tax cuts expire, the president will get the blame. Barring democrats retaking the house, the Bush tax cuts will be fully renewed either next month or sometime in January/Feb. Which likely means two more years of fear mongering and big deficits.

The House writes tax legislation. Even if the cuts expire, the house will just re-write them, pass them, and send it to the senate...which means dems would get the blame if it doesn't get done

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Semi-related aside: I'm almost convinced that much of Romney's rise has come from larger margins in already-red states. If you mention Obama out in rural areas down here for instance, people begin snarling and foaming at the mouth like rabid animals, and Romney endeared himself to these folks by fighting Obama in that first debate. Before, they were kinda lukewarm to Romney.

Completely the opposite I think. Romney's lead is driven by Obama's dwindling margins in blue states compared to 2008. Places like CT, PA, MI, OR, ME will be blue but by lower margins. Then you have places like CO, NV, WI, IA which went to Obama by huge margins being closer to tossups or lean Obama this time around.

 

[Black Mamba]

lol

Explain. If they obstruct and the tax cuts expire, the president will get the blame. Barring democrats retaking the house, the Bush tax cuts will be fully renewed either next month or sometime in January/Feb. Which likely means two more years of fear mongering and big deficits.

I think Bams will extend them but not for the upper class. I think he will negotiate to keep the estate tax as it is and/or similar things to give the Repubs something to take home, but I don't think he will fold like last time.

He can let them expire and then propose his own tax reform. That will put the honus on the Repubs to go along with it. I want to remind you, projections say things will be MUCH better in 4 years regardless of GOP bullshit and if the GOP doesn't hitch on the wagon, they'll be left behind and will pay for it.

They'll lose big in 2014 if they don't work with Obama this time a little.

 

[Black Mamba]

MILWAUKEE - Both Governor Walker and VP candidate Paul Ryan helped Governor Tommy Thompson raise campaign money Sunday.

But, it's comments by Thompson's son made Sunday morning that has the Internet buzzing.

"We have the opportunity to send President Obama back to Chicago, or Kenya," Jason Thompson said while speaking to a group of Republicans in Kenosha Sunday morning. Video of the comments quickly went online.

When asked by a reporter, Governor Thompson claimed he knew nothing about his son's quip.

lol (sorry if late, watched football at a bar most of the day)
http://www.todaystmj4.com/news/local/174126001.html

PS: Also, need more reporters like her!

 

[jerry113]

The problem is: What does Mitt stand for?

Is he going to pull another wildcard and just say the complete opposite of whatever Obama says and in the most attractive fashion possible? I think that's a key part of his debate strategy; deny the past and pick the best possible talking point remotely grounded in some form of GOP ideal to throw Obama off.

Do you really think Rombot could get away with that, like the viewing audience wouldn't notice that he's contradicting what he said last time?
...... I'm not sure.

 

[PhoenixDark]

I think Bams will extend them but not for the upper class. I think he will negotiate to keep the estate tax as it is and/or similar things to give the Repubs something to take home, but I don't think he will fold like last time.

He can let them expire and then propose his own tax reform. That will put the honus on the Repubs to go along with it. I want to remind you, projections say things will be MUCH better in 4 years regardless of GOP bullshit and if the GOP doesn't hitch on the wagon, they'll be left behind and will pay for it.

They'll lose big in 2014 if they don't work with Obama this time a little.

The estate tax doesn't change or expire in January, it's irrelevant to the issue. If taxes go up, the party in charge pays for it; that means democrats and the president. Republicans would have no incentive to let the upper class cuts expire in exchange for lower income cuts remaining. They could simply walk from the table and let everything increase in January. With respect to Obama proposing a tax plan, so you honestly think the house will accept that? And in terms of Obama getting some decent deal...not going to happen

They will simply rewrite the Bush tax cuts and give it a new name; perhaps the Reagan Tax Relief Plan. Boehner will send it to the senate and dare them not to pass it. And Obama will sign it

There are more than a few things that could ensure the CBI report doesn't come true, so I see no point in assuming 12 million jobs is a given. War, terrorist attack, another financial crash, etc.

 

[markatisu]

That's what people fucking said before the first debate...Romney sucks at them, etc. Obama is awesome...he will wipe the floor.

Have you ever seen the two in person? If you had you would know what is going to happen. I have met both of them, one is awkward as hell and the other is not.

Like I said earlier I have more worries about the third debate then the second since its back to the style that Obama got trounced in before.

But anybody who tells you Romney is comfortable talking to normal people or addressing their concerns is lying.

 

[Black Mamba]

RAND moves in favor of Obama again! And it's a sizable one. +1

Obama now up 49.56 to 44.94. If rounded terms, it would be 50-45 or Obama +5.


Also, the big gain today was a bit unexpected, and if I'm right, this could only happen if Obama is now polling around 50.5-44 in the poll for about 2 or 3 days.


Obama's lead is now HIGHER than it was the day of the debate. And based on their shifting numbers, the only way this is happening is Romney's enthusiasm has dropped or Obama's has come up.

Just 4 days ago, which incorporated the entire post-debate bounce, Obama was up slightly less than 2 points and it was 48-46. Now that the weekend has passed, it is roughly the same (slighty higher) than the +4.3 it was the day of the debate.

In other words, the debate bounce completely faded and it looks like Obama is polling even better than before.

Where you at PD?

 

[Black Mamba]

The estate tax doesn't change or expire in January, it's irrelevant to the issue. If taxes go up, the party in charge pays for it; that means democrats and the president. Republicans would have no incentive to let the upper class cuts expire in exchange for lower income cuts remaining. They could simply walk from the table and let everything increase in January. With respect to Obama proposing a tax plan, so you honestly think the house will accept that? And in terms of Obama getting some decent deal...not going to happen

They will simply rewrite the Bush tax cuts and give it a new name; perhaps the Reagan Tax Relief Plan. Boehner will send it to the senate and dare them not to pass it. And Obama will sign it

There are more than a few things that could ensure the CBI report doesn't come true, so I see no point in assuming 12 million jobs is a given. War, terrorist attack, another financial crash, etc.

Yes, I believe Obama and the Dems will spend a considerable amount of energy convincing the American people the GOP is pulling a ruse on them.

Voters have been clear they support higher taxes on the rich. Obama being elected is a mandate for that. The people understand this. It will be one of the first thing he brings up and pushes and if the GOP stand against it they will finally pay for it dearly. Boehner knows this and will work out a deal to take home to his people to show he got something (i used estate reform as an example).

edit: What would happen if Mitt is President and the Dems hold the Senate? And they refuse to extend the tax cuts?

 

[Aaron Strife]

RAND moves in favor of Obama again! And it's a sizable one. +1

Obama now up 49.56 to 44.94. If rounded terms, it would be 50-45 or Obama +5.


Also, the big gain today was a bit unexpected, and if I'm right, this could only happen if Obama is now polling around 50.5-44 in the poll for about 2 or 3 days.


Obama's lead is not HIGHER than it was the day of the debate. And based on their shifting numbers, the only way this is happening is Romney's enthusiasm has dropped or Obama's has come up.

Just 4 days ago, which incorporated the entire post-debate bounce, Obama was up slightly less than 2 points and it was 48-46. Now that the weekend has passed, it is roughly the same (slighty higher) than the +4.3 it was the day of the debate.

In other words, the debate bounce completely faded and it looks like Obama is polling even better than before.

Where you at PD?

Beautiful.

Now is certainly a poor time for America to let itself get hoodwinked by Mittens. Glad to see things are settling down.

Yes, I believe Obama and the Dems will spend a considerable amount of energy convincing the American people the GOP is pulling a ruse on them.

Voters have been clear they support higher taxes on the rich. Obama being elected is a mandate for that. The people understand this. It will be one of the first thing he brings up and pushes and if the GOP stand against it they will finally pay for it dearly. Boehner knows this and will work out a deal to take home to his people to show he got something (i used estate reform as an example).

I agree with this also. Romney has done everything to set the election up as a choice between progressive and conservative ideologies. If Obama wins and Republicans block any significant tax reform from occurring, they will be acting directly contrary of what the American people voted for. Not that they're any stranger to that, but it would be a really tough sell, especially if Obama wins in a landslide.

Best to hope Democrats win back the House just to be safe.

 

[Oblivion]

Bill Nye feels he's failed as an educator because Republicans are stupid.

 

[Black Mamba]

Beautiful.

Now is certainly a poor time for America to let itself get hoodwinked by Mittens. Glad to see things are settling down.


I agree with this also. Romney has done everything to set the election up as a choice between progressive and conservative ideologies. If Obama wins and Republicans block any significant tax reform from occurring, they will be acting directly contrary of what the American people voted for. Not that they're any stranger to that, but it would be a really tough sell, especially if Obama wins in a landslide.

Best to hope Democrats win back the House just to be safe.

I love the basketball analogy of a playoff series.

Obama was up 2-0 and going on the road. Home teams usually play out of their mind that game as they put everything in it while the Obama takes it easy thinking the other team will just lay down. No one has ever came back from down 3-0. Crowd is fired up and Romney came out to a convincing win as Obama laid an egg.

But the championship quality team understands that they just need to take 1 on the road to seal the deal at home. Coming back down 3-1 rarely happens and pretty much never late in the playoffs. So they get themselves read (poll move back in Obama's favor) heading into the 4th game.

Obama can go up 3-1 on Tuesday and the election is essentially over. Romney will fold on the road down big against a title team. They always do.


BTW, after tomorrow RAND will be phasing out Obama's drop in the polls from its data. I still think that was fueled by the debate bounce earlier in the week and the old Obama numbers being knocked out, but it should still rise (not necessarily tomorrow, but the 2-3 after). Of course, this ignores any debate reaction.

 

[pigeon]

Obama's lead is now HIGHER than it was the day of the debate. And based on their shifting numbers, the only way this is happening is Romney's enthusiasm has dropped or Obama's has come up.

You can see in the "intention to vote" panel that Romney voters have lost over 1.5% intention to vote in the last couple of days, which is actually a pretty large move on that scale.

 

[Aaron Strife]

You can see in the "intention to vote" panel that Romney voters have lost over 1.5% intention to vote in the last couple of days, which is actually a pretty large move on that scale.

I'm sure a lot of Romney's bounce came from winning over "undecided" Republicans, so that doesn't surprise me. He hit a home run and rallied everyone behind him, but now the debate has cycled out of the day-to-day news.

 

[Black Mamba]

You can see in the "intention to vote" panel that Romney voters have lost over 1.5% intention to vote in the last couple of days, which is actually a pretty large move on that scale.

Well, there you go. The one chart i missed, lol.

I wonder why it's dropping so much. It didn't rise after the debate. It's actually been steadily dropping since the debate.

Obama had a big drop on 10/10. I can't figure out what's special about 10/10. And it's not like that 500 sample set was bucking the norm the other days and it hasn't really risen much from that drop.

What the hell happened on Wednesday?

 

[fallagin]

Bill Nye feels he's failed as an educator because Republicans are stupid.

Haha, no you didn't fail Bill. There are some people who just can't be taught.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Ezra nailing this

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...a-lose-the-vision-thing/?wprss=rss_ezra-klein

One recurring problem for presidential candidates is that they don’t know how much they can’t do, so they overpromise. This happened to Obama in 2008. The problem for presidents is the reverse: Knowing exactly how much they can’t do and fearful of again overpromising, they lose the ability to inspire. This is happening to Obama now.

Obama’s American Jobs Act is still the best — and most detailed — plan on the table to create jobs. His health-care law, which will begin in earnest in 2014 assuming Obama is reelected, will cover tens of millions of Americans and transform the delivery of medical care. Indeed, just this month, the law began linking Medicare hospital payments to value rather than volume, and penalizing hospitals with high numbers of preventable readmissions. It’s a huge accomplishment, but not one you’ll hear Obama mention on the campaign trail. When Obama gets specific about policies these days, it’s usually about Romney’s plans, not his own.

It might be that polls and focus groups have given the Obama campaign reason to retreat from presenting a bold agenda for a second term. But the dulling of the vision has led to the dulling of the candidate. A quick glance at the polls suggests voters don’t seem to like that, either.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Well, there you go. The one chart i missed, lol.

I wonder why it's dropping so much. It didn't rise after the debate. It's actually been steadily dropping since the debate.

Obama had a big drop on 10/10. I can't figure out what's special about 10/10. And it's not like that 500 sample set was bucking the norm the other days and it hasn't really risen much from that drop.

What the hell happened on Wednesday?

I guess I don't know about RAND, but generally you should ignore daily fluctuations for tracking polls.

 

[Black Mamba]

I guess I don't know about RAND, but generally you should ignore daily fluctuations for tracking polls.

i'm thinking about the math behind it. That day has to have a really low number to cause it to move like that based on the stability of the previous 7 days. Just seems odd.

More likely noise, but was trying to see if I missed something happening.

 

[Cheebo]

RAND doesn't match up with the other trackers. They are the outlier in terms of tracking polls. Especially with their funky way they do sampling. Get excited if one of the more widely respected tracking polls like Gallup show movement Going nuts over RAND when the other more popular trackers aren't showing the same movement reeks of GOP clinging to Rasmussen when all other polls were bad for Romney style desperation.

 

[eBay Huckster]

okay, cheebo.

 

[thekad]

Rasmussen has an empirical Republican bias in their polling, so it's not the same. What you should be fighting against is anyone taking any one poll as gospel. Of course, other polls have also shown a weakening of Romney's debate bounce.

 

[Cheebo]

Rasmussen has an empirical Republican bias in their polling, so it's not the same. What you should be fighting against is anyone taking any one poll as gospel. Of course, other polls have also shown a weakening of Romney's debate bounce.

When Gallup does then it is safe to say the trackers show a weakening of his bounce, they are the gold standard when it comes to tracking polls.

 

[eBay Huckster]

When Gallup does

hey guys, you're not allowed to lend credibility to one poll. only i can do that. based on a tracking poll that had all kinds of wacky shit going on in all of the last three cycles around this time.

(if i am coming off as overly snarky or anything i apologize, for some reason i'm arguing with a minarchist on facebook right now and it's eating away at my ability to stay civil)

 

[thekad]

smh

 

[Loudninja]

Ok I am now convinced , no matter what happen its bad news for Obama for certain people.

 

[Black Republican]

Good news for Obama?

Must be an outlier.

Thats Bananas!

 

[Loudninja]

New Obama ad
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-RCZU0gXS8&feature=player_embedded

 

[gkryhewy]

LOL @ Good Morning America lead-in: "our new ABC News / WashPost poll reveals new strength for Mitt Romney"

 

[stressboy]

LOL @ Good Morning America lead-in: "our new ABC News / WashPost poll reveals new strength for Mitt Romney"

That liberal media is at it again!

 

[Black Republican]

LOL @ Good Morning America lead-in: "our new ABC News / WashPost poll reveals new strength for Mitt Romney"

but romney was down 2 before Right?

Confused? Yes i am