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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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H

hydragonwarrior

Member
Tim-E said:
I can't wait for this election to be over. This year has been fun, but everyone's been too bummed out around here.

Can't wait for Obama's second term to begin so everyone can complain that he isn't the Liberal Jesus the entire time!
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It's because of Obama's first debate performance. If he had excelled then, liberal GAF would be all sunglasses and yeahs.
 
J

Jackson50

Member
empty vessel said:
I agree, but the article said that Obama made a decision to de-prioritize it. Nominations were slow in forthcoming or left entirely unmade. It was not an administration priority.
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Yeah. Republican intransigence cannot be ignored. But if Obama's not prioritizing appointments, even before the Democrats lost the supermajority, he's also culpable.
Loudninja said:
Got any proof about the primaries?
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The only instance where the debates probably mattered was SC. Mitt was leading prior to the debates. And, then, within the span of a week, Mitt performed poorly in two debates and lost the state. Otherwise, the evidence is unconvincing. If you wanted to be generous, maybe Florida.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
ErasureAcer said:
Gingrich shot ahead after ripping the media in the SC debate.
Click to expand...

The GOP debates were the very definition of bounces -- candidates won one debate, won the primary that happened TWO DAYS LATER. When there were primaries that were even a little further out from the debates, they went right back to the Romney-leading mean.
 
L

Loudninja

Member
Brinbe said:
Yep, and got trounced in the next one by Mitt and killed off his momentum (that and a glut of negative advertising)
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Jackson50 said:
Yeah. Republican intransigence cannot be ignored. But if Obama's not prioritizing appointments, even before the Democrats lost the supermajority, he's also culpable.The only instance where the debates probably mattered was SC. Mitt was leading prior to the debates. And, then, within the span of a week, Mitt performed poorly in two debates and lost the state. Otherwise, the evidence is unconvincing. If you wanted to be generous, maybe Florida.
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As I though.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
gcubed said:
I agree with the one user comment in that story.



After the first debate if I am to take Romney at face value i'm voting for generic candidate 1 or generic candidate 2. After Romney completely discarded everything he's said over the last year I'm left with seeing someone interested and someone disinterested. Obama did nothing to remind people who Romney is and his first term did little to make me want to vote again
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There's nothing in the poll data to support that comment, at all. Romney's surge was pretty much entirely picking up sideline-Republican/"undecided" support. Obama hasn't lost any Democratic votes he already had.
 
D

Dreamcaster

Banned
Will Romney dare bring this up - it seems like something only appropriate at a town hall, as some in the audience will be familiar with it (I wasn't):

http://theclicker.today.com/_news/2...cki-minaj-mariah-carey-can-sort-out-idol-feud

It would be downright Biden-esque if he dropped a "I'm trying to get Americans back to work while the President works on more important matters, like ending the Nicki Minaj/Mariah Carey feud."

I would be such a bad politician.

So on the polls, where are we - Romney got a 5 point or so bounce and Obama has clawed back a couple percent?
 
G

gcubed

Member
Joe Shlabotnik said:
There's nothing in the poll data to support that comment, at all. Romney's surge was pretty much entirely picking up sideline-Republican/"undecided" support. Obama hasn't lost any Democratic votes he already had.
Click to expand...

i'm not saying there is anything to support it, but distancing myself from watching politics and knowing what Romney's positions were before that night, i saw the same person on both sides of the stage
 
S

Sirpopopop

Member
Incognito said:
roughly in line with my algorithm at this time. expect a close obama win, somewhere around the ~1.5% range. (which of course doesn't auger well for ohio, michigan, wisconsin or iowa)
Click to expand...

I would like to see the 50 state Incognito poll.

I understand that your model uses properly unskewed polls, and accounts for the Silver effect.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Romney is probably wasting time whenever he's not campaigning in Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, or Florida. That's his path. He's up in three, just needs to pull off a miracle in Ohio

In hindsight I don't see what his goal was in calling for Detroit to go bankrupt, and antagonizing the bailout to this day. Perhaps he cynically figured it was good divide/conquer politics, as Kosmo has argued in terms of Detroit being so mismanaged. But a lot of white people here depend on Detroit, it's not something that can be seperates on racial lines.

The bailout wasn't a big focus during the primary, and supporting it would not have cost him the nomination. It strikes me as another case of him putting short term goals (ie attain nom) ahead oflong term ones (ie win presidency). You can't piss on the mid west and Latinos, then pretend like you didn't a few months later
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
In hindsight I don't see what his goal was in calling for Detroit to go bankrupt, and antagonizing the bailout to this day. Perhaps he cynically figured it was good divide/conquer politics, as Kosmo has argued in terms of Detroit being so mismanaged. But a lot of white people here depend on Detroit, it's not something that can be seperates on racial lines.

The bailout wasn't a big focus during the primary, and supporting it would not have cost him the nomination. It strikes me as another case of him putting short term goals (ie attain nom) ahead oflong term ones (ie win presidency). You can't piss on the mid west and Latinos, then pretend like you didn't a few months later
Click to expand...

Honestly considering Obama's blowout win, I don't think he expected to run again. Did he even announce before the 2010 elections? I think that's when he saw an opening
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Mitt Romney has canceled his appearance on "The View," set for Thursday, co-host Barbara Walters said during today's show. He was scheduled to appear with his wife Ann, who will still go on the show.

Romney campaign press secretary Andrea Saul told TPM: "It was no longer going to work in the campaign schedule but Mrs. Romney is very excited to join the ladies of 'The View'."

During Mitt Romney's "47 percent" comments, the GOP presidential candidate also called the daytime talk show "high-risk, because, of the five women on it, only one is conservative, and four are sharp-tongued and not conservative.”
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http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/mitt-romney-cancels-on-view

A small thing, but I still like it. Obama's gotta nurture that gender gap.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Romney is probably wasting time whenever he's not campaigning in Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, or Florida. That's his path. He's up in three, just needs to pull off a miracle in Ohio

In hindsight I don't see what his goal was in calling for Detroit to go bankrupt, and antagonizing the bailout to this day. Perhaps he cynically figured it was good divide/conquer politics, as Kosmo has argued in terms of Detroit being so mismanaged. But a lot of white people here depend on Detroit, it's not something that can be seperates on racial lines.

The bailout wasn't a big focus during the primary, and supporting it would not have cost him the nomination. It strikes me as another case of him putting short term goals (ie attain nom) ahead oflong term ones (ie win presidency). You can't piss on the mid west and Latinos, then pretend like you didn't a few months later
Click to expand...

I just don't think he was planning to run for President again in 08. Or maybe he hoped to get Bain in on it and grab up some cheap factories.

Dreamcaster said:
Will Romney dare bring this up - it seems like something only appropriate at a town hall, as some in the audience will be familiar with it (I wasn't):

http://theclicker.today.com/_news/2...cki-minaj-mariah-carey-can-sort-out-idol-feud

It would be downright Biden-esque if he dropped a "I'm trying to get Americans back to work while the President works on more important matters, like ending the Nicki Minaj/Mariah Carey feud."

I would be such a bad politician.

So on the polls, where are we - Romney got a 5 point or so bounce and Obama has clawed back a couple percent?
Click to expand...

Your posts reflect a classic and fascinating Republican misunderstanding of gaffes. Again and again you try to pin "gaffes" on Obama and Biden that would have excellent traction in dadspam but less than no effect in an actual election. The thing that differentiates Republican gaffes from Democratic "gaffes" is that comments like Akin's or Romney's 47% represent both character questions and policy statements. You can't just choose a thing that you wouldn't have done and declare it a gaffe, as with this or with Biden's "buried" comment. I mean, you can, but it won't have any impact.
 
S

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Cloudy said:
Gallup

RV 48 - 46 O
LV 49 - 47 R
Approval 48 - 47

All Unchanged. Bleeding stopped?
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Pretty sure Black Mamba was adamant that by today those numbers would be back to pre-debate levels.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
codhand said:
Didn't seem like you thought it would take a "miracle" last week. More like an inevitability, are you hedging?
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Miracle, Hail Mary, whatever you want to call it. Romney can tighten things in Ohio if he clearly defeats Obama in another debate; after that Ohio's sec of state can do the rest.
 
D

Dreamcaster

Banned
Cloudy said:
Gallup

RV 48 - 46 O
LV 49 - 47 R
Approval 48 - 47

All Unchanged. Bleeding stopped?
Click to expand...

I'm not sure how these things usually go in debate season, but my guess is that if one candidate gets a significant bump out of the first debate, it starts to flatten out as we get within a couple of days of the next debate. This is pretty much how Silver's charts have gone - a big Obama decline for a week or so, then a tick up in the last couple days. It's all on tomorrow.
 
F

Father_Brain

Banned
PA hasn't gone Republican since 1988. It'd take a national Romney landslide for him to win there; it's the dog that didn't bark, as far as swing states go.

(One of the most entertaining moments of election night in '08 came as a result of McCain hinging much of his late-campaign hopes on PA. The state ended up going for Obama by such a substantial margin that the networks called it for him as soon as the polls closed there.)
 
J

Jackson50

Member
Retail sales increased more than forecast in September. Yet another indication the economy might be accelerating.
PhoenixDark said:
Romney is probably wasting time whenever he's not campaigning in Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, or Florida. That's his path. He's up in three, just needs to pull off a miracle in Ohio

In hindsight I don't see what his goal was in calling for Detroit to go bankrupt, and antagonizing the bailout to this day. Perhaps he cynically figured it was good divide/conquer politics, as Kosmo has argued in terms of Detroit being so mismanaged. But a lot of white people here depend on Detroit, it's not something that can be seperates on racial lines.

The bailout wasn't a big focus during the primary, and supporting it would not have cost him the nomination. It strikes me as another case of him putting short term goals (ie attain nom) ahead oflong term ones (ie win presidency). You can't piss on the mid west and Latinos, then pretend like you didn't a few months later
Click to expand...
Perhaps he was attempting to actually influence policy? The op-ed was published in late 2008 during the midst of the financial meltdown. So I doubt the nomination was his overriding concern.

Also, when can I expect the union data? You're seemingly not posting on your iPod now.
 
C

Crisco

Banned
Father_Brain said:
PA hasn't gone Republican since 1988. It'd take a national Romney landslide for him to win there; it's the dog that didn't bark, as far as swing states go.

(One of the most entertaining moments of election night in '08 came as a result of McCain hinging much of his late-campaign hopes on PA. The state ended up going for Obama by such a substantial margin that the networks called it for him as soon as the polls closed there.)
Click to expand...

I can see the same thing happening with Wisconsin/Iowa this year. Ohio will likely get called early as well, but when those get called for Obama, the fat lady will have sung.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
I will never get this...

If you decided to answer a pollster call about voting, why the hell would you not actually vote? You had the time to answer a phone call and go through their questions but don't want to actually vote. wtf
 
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