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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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Averon

Member
I don't understand how Diablos and CS can follow politics day-to-day. It sounds like every little thing gives them a heart attack.
 
We went from this:
Good news out of CO, let's keep it goin'.

If Obama doesn't puss out during the next debate I'm probably donating.

To this:
Now this is bad news. Obama was at 54% before, his highest Gallup rating in eons, now he's down by 6 in only a couple days. Epic smh. That's how easily he had this debate in his pocket. Everyone was expecting him to just show up and put Romney away, now the dynamic is completely different because the Obama camp somehow thought acting like a skeptical professor was the best way to plead your case in front of some 67 million people.

As for enthusiasm, it's as though the debate totally made voters forget about the GOP's embarrassing convention. Dems had the edge. This really blows.

Obama's camp really made a critical error in how they prepared for the first debate. I do think it was intentional for him to be so nuanced but it has to be one of the dumbest ideas I've ever seen out of a modern day campaign.

Obama will (hopefully) do better in the townhall, but I expect Romney to be foaming at the mouth not willing to let Obama make a resurgence, you can bet he's prepping like crazy to make this a reality.

I'll say this, Mitt is fully aware of how bad September hurt his campaign, and he's not going to let go of what he's gained since the first debate without putting everything he's got into his campaign now.

Within the span of one page.

Truly:

wfKoa.gif
 
I don't understand how Diablos and CS can follow politics day-to-day. It sounds like every little thing gives them a heart attack.
Anyone who follows politics for even one cycle should know things are volatile. Remember after the debt ceiling fight when everyone thought Obama was done for? Even Nate was floating the possibility of President Romney and a Dem Congress, which now seems somewhat implausible.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
It's important to note, pigeon, because he hasn't been at 54% in quite some time and there's only one thing I can think of that would make him dive by 6 points in such a short period of time.

I've pointed out on at least four occasions that Gallup's trackers swing wildly over many weekends. It had Obama at +10 approval, which was a clear outlier. It's current spread is simply regression back to the mean.
 
I've pointed out on at least four occasions that Gallup's trackers swing wildly over many weekends. It had Obama at +10 approval, which was a clear outlier. It's current spread is simply regression back to the mean.

NO GHALEON...IT CAN ONLY BE EXPLAINED BY ONE THING!!!
 
LITTLE ROCK, Ark. (AP) — Arkansas Republicans tried to distance themselves Saturday from a Republican state representative's assertion that slavery was a "blessing in disguise" and a Republican state House candidate who advocates deporting all Muslims.

The claims were made in books written, respectively, by Rep. Jon Hubbard of Jonesboro and House candidate Charlie Fuqua of Batesville. Those books received attention on Internet news sites Friday.

On Saturday, state GOP Chairman Doyle Webb called the books "highly offensive." And U.S. Rep. Rick Crawford, a Republican who represents northeast Arkansas, called the writings "divisive and racially inflammatory."

Hubbard wrote in his 2009 self-published book, "Letters To The Editor: Confessions Of A Frustrated Conservative," that "the institution of slavery that the black race has long believed to be an abomination upon its people may actually have been a blessing in disguise." He also wrote that African-Americans were better off than they would have been had they not been captured and shipped to the United States.

Fuqua, who served in the Arkansas House from 1996 to 1998, wrote there is "no solution to the Muslim problem short of expelling all followers of the religion from the United States," in his 2012 book, titled "God's Law."
http://news.yahoo.com/ark-gop-calls-candidates-statements-offensive-212508499.html

Sometimes the dog whistle can be heard by all.


He wrote a book called "God's law"? Why don't you go be a preacher and not an elected official?
 

Cyrillus

Member
Brit Hume: "7.8% certainly improves the [president's] talking point, but people don't make their decisions based on a number. Besides, the unemployment and underemployment rate is 14% and remains unchanged, and I think that reflects what people are feeling and seeing."
 

Tim-E

Member
Hope you guys are ready for President Romney to bring the Jim Crow laws back, poll taxes, the abolishment of the 19th amendment, nationwide sodomy laws, forced straight marriage, the end of all social welfare programs, the death penalty for all felonies, etc. In addition, Sotomayor, Kagan, Ginsburg, and Breyer will all be forced to step down, allowing the Republican super majority in the Senate to appoint relatives of Scalia to the court.
 
Brit Hume: "7.8% certainly improves the [president's] talking point, but people don't make their decisions based on a number. Besides, the unemployment and underemployment rate is 14% and remains unchanged, and I think that reflects what people are feeling and seeing."
so they admit the whole below 8% thing was just their talking point? gasp!
 

Trakdown

Member
Brit Hume: "7.8% certainly improves the [president's] talking point, but people don't make their decisions based on a number. Besides, the unemployment and underemployment rate is 14% and remains unchanged, and I think that reflects what people are feeling and seeing."

"People don't care about numbers. Here's a number they care about."

Asshat.
 
I guess u6 is important now. I thought real Americans hated that number and didn't like it being brought up.

I prefer we pay attention to u6 more than the vanilla number, I'm glad my conservative friends are finally starting to agree.
 

Mgoblue201

Won't stop picking the right nation
Underemployment technically isn't the same thing as unemployment, though it is a problem. But people are going to hear 14% and think that's the "real" unemployment figure.
 

Tim-E

Member
I used to be a Real American, but then I went and got one of them fancy college degrees. Worst idea ever.
 
I guess u6 is important now. I thought real Americans hated that number and didn't like it being brought up.

I prefer we pay attention to u6 more than the vanilla number, I'm glad my conservative friends are finally starting to agree.

The only people I know who focus on that number are LaRouche acolytes, but if Friday/Saturday are a sign of things to come I'm guessing it'll become the GOP's focus too. Especially if Obama is reelected and the recovery continues.

Get ready for "the government's unemployment rate measurement dropped to 7.3% in June, but the actual unemployment number is 10%" reports
 
Underemployment technically isn't the same thing as unemployment, though it is a problem. But people are going to hear 14% and think that's the "real" unemployment figure.

Yep. If people actually cared about the number for more than gamesmanship because of "good news" for Obama, it would be a great opportunity to discuss how apt our economy has become at producing shitty low-wage jobs in place of middle-class building ones.

But they ain't about that life.
 

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
Jesus this is a Great political cartoon on youtube called WhyObamaNow that's rising in views over 100k so far. Don't know if this is posted already.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9G8XREyG0Q&feature=colike

Obama should have run through the first half of that multiple times during the debate. Lay it out explicitly that we've already tried these policies, including in the last decade, and the shit doesn't work.
 

MasterShotgun

brazen editing lynx
Brit Hume: "7.8% certainly improves the [president's] talking point, but people don't make their decisions based on a number. Besides, the unemployment and underemployment rate is 14% and remains unchanged, and I think that reflects what people are feeling and seeing."

What gets me is if Romney was elected and the UE rate was still decreasing, then it would be 2 or 3 months at most before the UE rate started mattering again.

Of course, many on the left would immediately use it as proof of Obama's policies working. They could be correct, but I don't have enough faith in the media on all sides to point out the facts and lies consistently.
 
Underemployment technically isn't the same thing as unemployment, though it is a problem. But people are going to hear 14% and think that's the "real" unemployment figure.

U6 also includes discouraged workers--those who want work but have given up looking at the time of the survey. It really is the most comprehensive measure of labor underutilization and should be considered the "real" unemployment figure. Although I obviously get the political point you are making.
 

Mgoblue201

Won't stop picking the right nation
U6 also includes discouraged workers--those who want work but have given up looking at the time of the survey. It really is the most comprehensive measure of labor underutilization and should be considered the "real" unemployment figure. Although I obviously get the political point you are making.
U4 and U5 include discouraged workers and are most useful for the purpose of tracking true unemployment. U6 counts workers who technically aren't unemployed; for this reason, it's 4% higher than U5, and if you use it for the sake of tracking unemployment, then it paints a picture of the labor market that is more pessimistic than it really is (though, as I said, it's still a problem). Underutilization, not unemployment, is a good way of describing the true usefulness of U6 as a metric.
 
U4 and U5 include discouraged workers and are most useful for the purpose of tracking true unemployment. U6 counts workers who technically aren't unemployed; for this reason, it's 4% higher than U5, and if you use it for the sake of tracking unemployment, then it paints a picture of the labor market that is more pessimistic than it really is (though, as I said, it's still a problem). Underutilization, not unemployment, is a good way of describing the true usefulness of U6 as a metric.

I agree that underutilization is the better descriptor.

empty vessel should be immune from any and all bannings

It will require a movement of thousands to come to pass. Organize!
 
Jesus this is a Great political cartoon on youtube called WhyObamaNow that's rising in views over 100k so far. Don't know if this is posted already.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9G8XREyG0Q&feature=colike

Holy shit . . . I had never heard of the "Horse & Sparrow" phrasing for trickle down economics. You thought it was bad when it was a double-entendre for a golden show. With the Horse & sparrow phrasing, the bottom class are literally eating upper class shit.

Wiki says:
According to John Kenneth Galbraith, the theory dates back to the 1890s when it was called horse and sparrow theory -- i.e., if you feed horses enough oats, it will pass through their digestive systems and their droppings will provide enough leftover oats to feed the sparrows.
 
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/329585/sesame-nation-mark-steyn

Unlike Mitt, I loathe Sesame Street. It bears primary responsibility for what the Canadian blogger Binky calls the de-monsterization of childhood — the idea that there are no evil monsters out there at the edges of the map, just shaggy creatures who look a little funny and can sometimes be a bit grouchy about it because people prejudge them until they learn to celebrate diversity and help Cranky the Friendly Monster go recycling. That is not unrelated to the infantilization of our society. Marinate three generations of Americans in that pabulum and it’s no surprise you wind up with unprotected diplomats dragged to their deaths from their “safe house” in Benghazi. Or as J. Scott Gration, the president’s special envoy to Sudan, said in 2009, in the most explicit Sesamization of American foreign policy: “We’ve got to think about giving out cookies. Kids, countries — they react to gold stars, smiley faces, handshakes . . . ” The butchers of Darfur aren’t blood-drenched machete-wielding genocidal killers but just Cookie Monsters whom we haven’t given enough cookies. I’m not saying there’s a direct line between Bert & Ernie and Barack & Hillary . . . well, actually I am.

things republicans hate: sesame street, mr. rogers, empathy for human beings
 

giga

Member
Any The West Wing fans? This is so good.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/07/o...-smoking-and-scheming.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2&

BARTLET All right! (back to OBAMA) And that was quite a display of hard-nosed, fiscal conservatism when he slashed one one-hundredth of 1 percent from the federal budget by canceling “Sesame Street” and “Downton Abbey.” I think we’re halfway home. Mr. President, your prep for the next debate need not consist of anything more than learning to pronounce three words: “Governor, you’re lying.” Let’s replay some of Wednesday night’s more jaw-dropping visits to the Land Where Facts Go to Die. “I don’t have a $5 trillion tax cut. I don’t have a tax cut of a scale you’re talking about.”

OBAMA The Tax Policy Center analysis of your proposal for a 20 percent across-the-board tax cut in all federal income tax rates, eliminating the Alternative Minimum Tax, the estate tax and other reductions, says it would be a $5 trillion tax cut.

BARTLET In other words ...

OBAMA You’re lying, Governor.

BARTLET “I saw a study that came out today that said you’re going to raise taxes by $3,000 to $4,000 on middle-income families.”

OBAMA The American Enterprise Institute found my budget actually would reduce the share of taxes that each taxpayer pays to service the debt by $1,289.89 for taxpayers earning in the $100,000 to $200,000 range.

BARTLET Which is another way of saying ...

OBAMA You’re lying, Governor.

BARTLET “I want to take that $716 billion you’ve cut and put it back into Medicare.”

OBAMA The $716 billion I’ve cut is from the providers, not the beneficiaries. I think that’s a better idea than cutting the exact same $716 billion and replacing it with a gift certificate, which is what’s contained in the plan that’s named for your running mate.

BARTLET “Pre-existing conditions are covered under my plan.”

OBAMA Not unless you’ve come up with a new plan since this afternoon.

BARTLET “You doubled the deficit.”

OBAMA When I took office in 2009, the deficit was 1.4 trillion. According to the C.B.O., the deficit for 2012 will be 1.1 trillion. Either you have the mathematics aptitude of a Shetland pony or, much more likely, you’re lying.

BARTLET “All of the increase in natural gas has happened on private land, not on government land. On government land, your administration has cut the number of permits and licenses in half.”

OBAMA Maybe your difficulty is with the words “half” and “double.” Oil production on federal land is higher, not lower. And the oil and gas industry are currently sitting on 7,000 approved permits to drill on government land that they’ve not yet begun developing.

BARTLET “I think about half the green firms you’ve invested in have gone out of business.”

OBAMA Yeah, your problem’s definitely with the word “half.” As of this moment there have been 26 recipients of loan guarantees — 23 of which are very much in business. What was Bain’s bankruptcy record again?

That's just part of it. The rest is gold. I'm sure Obama's already got the point by now from his advisors. Better be ready next time.
 

Tim-E

Member
Every time a talk show has someone from the National Review on their panel I want to jump off a bridge once they open their mouths.
 
The thing about the Big Bird thing, outside of a good sound bite, is the meaning behind it I think. You can say you are for education but if you are willing to do away with one of the best sources of early education for everyone how can anyone trust anything you say regarding it. PBS has tons of shows that many children watch growing up. Almost all adults have memories of it and its one station everyone that is reasonable can trust to sit their baby or toddlers down in front of. Those who are primary care givers for children, women especially, know this very well. So it's a double hit against Romney when it comes to those that value education highly and women, mothers specifically. The only people that I can think of that think it's really okay to do away with it are those that really have never watched it or took advantage of the channel and it's shows and others like it.

Great post. Sesame Street is a home-school pre-school.

I used to be a Real American, but then I went and got one of them fancy college degrees. Worst idea ever.

Yeah, but it's from Hillbilly University, so it doesn't count.

I went to WVU.
 
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