This is totally tea leaves, but PPP noted before that they can't give teasers when the polls are too close to know who's in the lead before they finish tabulating, so I'm confident the margin is larger than +1 and I'd give even odds it's higher than +2. I say +3.
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
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This is totally tea leaves, but PPP noted before that they can't give teasers when the polls are too close to know who's in the lead before they finish tabulating, so I'm confident the margin is larger than +1 and I'd give even odds it's higher than +2. I say +3.
I dont think VA was part of that.
Frank the Great
Banned
prediction: obama +4, election called a month early.
If he comes in under 17, will you freak out y/n?
If it's close in VA on Nov.6 then it's all going to come down to the strength of the Obama campaign's operations, imo. 3rd party vote is almost always magnified in polling, so Virgil Goode won't be what saves us (unless it's an insanely close result).
Officerrob
Banned
Nate Silver said:
Things will start settling early next week and start creeping Obama's way toward the end of the week, IMO
Officerrob
Banned
I think Romney flashed real hot on Thursday and Friday, but after having a couple days to think about it people realized they still prefer Obama
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Is what I'm betting as well.
Black Mamba
Member
Yeah, pretty much. Also, where those gains are made matter. More Repubs in Texas voting? Or Ohio? Or everywhere?
I still think by this time next week (unless something happens in biden-ryan bad for one side) we'll see Obama back by like 2.5-3 up, which is probably where the race should have been to begin with.
Pretty much. As Nate said, it was a "field goal."
Yep. I think he even said before the debate that the Nov. 6 forecast accounted for a ~2 point bump.
Officerrob
Banned
Wrong forum, lol
The Librarian
Banned
Oh. Hey. Look at that. Nothing to worry about.
Wait, wait, wait. Nate specifically says that it looks more like 3 points at the moment, and that that two-point bump incorporates a lot of data from before the debates. Why is everybody agreeing with Captain Reading Comprehension all of a sudden? It's quite possible that the tracking polls are falling back and we'll end up seeing only a 2 point bump or even less, but that's not what the data shows yet. Have to see what Virginia says.
Oh, and there it goes. 50-47. Called it. Romney picked up undecideds, Obama gained a point and hit 50%. That's still a winning score -- and it does not represent a permanent three point bump for Romney.
Black Mamba
Member
PPP is saying it's a 1% switch from Obama to Romney. It was 51/46 last they checked.
FWIW, they should know better than to say it's a "slight shift." It's statistically insignificant. This is a BAD poll for Romney.
Officerrob
Banned
50-47 is pretty damn good considering that's on the heels of the debate
Looking back, some of the media coverage was like... wow, really?
i.e. Matthews on MSNBC. Man did SNL rip on him good. It's okay to be upset but c'mon man, his hair was all messed up, like Obama said "fuck all y'all" at the end of the debate, knocked down the podium, called Jim Leher a pussy and walked off the stage.
Not giving Obama a free pass here but it is a sad state of affairs all too often in the media. And frankly, even though I can't blame him for Obama's dismal performance, Jim Leher should be ashamed of himself and should never be allowed to moderate again, ever ever. He's an embarrassment to the Presidential debate format. He used to be okay, but he's getting too old. Time to retire.
"SO YOU GUYS CAN SAY YOU AGREE HERE? REALLY? OK COOL. LET'S GO ON!"
I mean, what? He was useless. They should have just had an LCD panel that read off prerecorded questions with a timer that cut off their mics after a certain time period. He was that fucking bad.
i.e. Matthews on MSNBC. Man did SNL rip on him good. It's okay to be upset but c'mon man, his hair was all messed up, like Obama said "fuck all y'all" at the end of the debate, knocked down the podium, called Jim Leher a pussy and walked off the stage.
Not giving Obama a free pass here but it is a sad state of affairs all too often in the media. And frankly, even though I can't blame him for Obama's dismal performance, Jim Leher should be ashamed of himself and should never be allowed to moderate again, ever ever. He's an embarrassment to the Presidential debate format. He used to be okay, but he's getting too old. Time to retire.
"SO YOU GUYS CAN SAY YOU AGREE HERE? REALLY? OK COOL. LET'S GO ON!"
I mean, what? He was useless. They should have just had an LCD panel that read off prerecorded questions with a timer that cut off their mics after a certain time period. He was that fucking bad.
No question this was the reason, the media coverage of romney winning in style and not confronting romney on his lies is the most obvious reason for his bounce.
There was an accurate article about it(can't seem to find it though.)
For that time compare.
But if you read the article, his larger point is that Saturday's portion of the poll basically equaled the day prior to the debate which it replaced. In other words, Romney's bounce is largely temporary.
Of course we need more data.
To be fair, I watched MSNBC and found myself agreeing with Sharpton almost entirely. Obama's energy was off, but Romney would ultimately fall flat on facts.
Oh I have no doubt he will do better at the very least the next two debates should turn into a tie if obama is as forceful as romney on his points and confronts romney on his. Since that's what the media likes.
The Librarian
Banned
PD, do you ever get tired of being wrong?
I read that, but, uh, I find it hard to square with their actual release, which had 49-43. I mean, I must be missing something. This is the most recent poll they had in 538 for Virginia.
http://www.nrdcactionfund.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/VirginiaResults92112.pdf
Yep, I stopped watching it shortly after Matthews melted down.
Black Mamba
Member
Maddow was the only one with any sense of it. Like I said at the time, if the reverse was true could you imagine Hannity, Hume, etc acting that way? No, they would have argued their man still won or "did enough."
Liberals haven't mastered the art of the outright lie, yet.
Officerrob
Banned
I agreed with every word Matthews said and was totally confused why he was saying it on television
Holy shit @ VA polling. Why do I have a feeling that even if Obama kicked his ass the result would be the same? You can always expect a point or two for the challenger when it's debate time, especially for the first one.
I'll tell you what, Obama is damn lucky if he comes out of this with only a few small dents in the armor. I don't wanna speak too soon but if he gets re-elected he has the most luck of any President, like, ever. I don't know if it speaks to his base, his likability, how crazy the GOP is in contrast based on the merits alone, or a blend of all these things... but if he gets re-elected, the stars were aligned for this guy.
I'll tell you what, Obama is damn lucky if he comes out of this with only a few small dents in the armor. I don't wanna speak too soon but if he gets re-elected he has the most luck of any President, like, ever. I don't know if it speaks to his base, his likability, how crazy the GOP is in contrast based on the merits alone, or a blend of all these things... but if he gets re-elected, the stars were aligned for this guy.
I agreed with him too but his presentation was just laughable. Hair sticking up etc. I guess more funny than anything else looking back.
The Librarian
Banned
How do you manage to worry with a positive poll for Obama?
I've thought this for a while now. You don't even need to lie necessarily. Conservatives are always on message and they will defend their guy to no end because they want to win. And for a long while now they have won more often than democrats. The left assumes that the world is collapsing the moment they are having a bad moment and will distance themselves from dem candidates the second they do something that a pure liberal wouldn't do. This, coupled with the fact that this is a center-right country is why democrats typically suck at winning.
Not quite. Silver said a 3 point bump is more likely. But the outcome is effectively indistinguishable. And as the new Virginia poll also indicates, Romney was unable to overcome Obama's lead.
Black Mamba
Member
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/va/virginia_romney_vs_obama-1774.html#polls
RCP has the 51/46.
That link is weird. Look at the sample size for Likely Voters. 2700!? When does anyone do almost 3k LV for a state like Va? That is very large
Anyway, I have no idea why RCP has the 14-16 and this one is 17-19 of Sept. There is a mistake somewhere. I mean, there is no way PPP did 2 polls back to back.
The Librarian
Banned
We have to stop doing this. :lol
I love that this gives me another excuse to return to the Electoral Map for another tinkering session..
I'm going to lock in my prediction from a few days ago. I'm feeling good about it!
Geez, maybe I have a hard time getting the point across. I'm not worrying, I'm relieved that the VA poll barely moved at all. I'm merely stating that, if we go back to the Democratic primary till now, Obama has this way of dodging everything that's been thrown at him, from Rev. Wright, to clinging to guns/religion (although I personally loved that moment), to shooting himself in the foot during a debate.
I'm giving him props for being able to, I guess, transcend what often will destroy anyone else in politics at that level.
MasterShotgun
brazen editing lynx
Has enough time passed since the jobs report for it to have a noticeable effect on the polls? I know it doesn't normally have a major effect, but I'd think the one from Friday would carry more weight than usual.
Their website only lists the 14-16 poll. And, yes, a sample size of 2,700 is unusual.
You have to ask? He will find a way to be concerned about everything until its official Obama wins re-election
2010 messed him up something awful
EatChildren
Currently polling second in Australia's federal election (first in the Gold Coast), this feral may one day be your Bogan King.
Greetings Americans. I'd like to enquire as to which shape shifting reptiliod is perceived to be winning the faux popularity contest you call an election.
Here is where we would insert the Obama chill I got this meme pic
He is not your average politician, one of the reasons the GOP gets so upset
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