I was really looking forward to seeing LeVar Burton on The Ed Show Friday. Sucks that he had travel trouble. Here's hoping they can reschedule.
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
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I was really looking forward to seeing LeVar Burton on The Ed Show Friday. Sucks that he had travel trouble. Here's hoping they can reschedule.
The Librarian
Banned
Excuse me, Mr. Shultz, but why are you saying this on NeoGAF? You should advertise it on your show!
John Boehner: That was never my plan. *blink* *blink* *blink*
RESULTS ARE IN AND 99% OF YOU SAID YES. 1% OF YOU SAID NO. That settles that.
Black Republican
Member
Poor Ed haha
PhoenixDark
Banned
47% of yes votes came from free Obama phones
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Why are you guys so eager to throw your money away?
Well, it looks like Obama is at least aware he shat the bed Wednesday night, so I expect a much better performance on the 16th.
You mean like how liberals wanted America to fail in Iraq?
A doctor said that? I might vote for Romney now.
Another model which has earned good repute for its accuracy and methodological quality is Erikson & Wlezien's model; even Nate Silver, despite his often justified reproofs of forecasting models, lauded their model. In PS's quadrennial election symposium which was recently published, they project Obama will win 52.6 of two-party vote share. Mind you, that's derived from leading economic indicators. So when you consider Obama's other advantages, primarily his organizational superiority, he's in a secure position.
TacticalFox88
Banned
So, I'm cautiously optimistic for a stomp on the 16th.
Like some of us said just after the debate, Romney doesn't have any more cards. Obama will press him on his contradictions, lies, and lack of actual plans. He's still got the 47%, 14.1%, and tax dodging cards to play. I bet we'll see Biden really press Ryan on the taxes puppies and sunshine, maybe even give up an response answer time under the condition that Ryan use it to explain the taxes.
I think part of the reason why Obama wasn't able to dismantle on the spot is that it was a complete wild card. Obama is very good at preparing an argument as we see in speeches, but not good enough on the spot to overcome "style".
You would do the same if the Republicans had a Mini-Ike running.
I think its impossible at a town hall to do as bad as he did, they will not be taking on each other as much as interfacing with the crowd and those asking the questions. That format was made for Obama and not so much for Romney who has had awkward moment after awkward moment with people on the campaign trail
Yeah, this too. Romney cannot even connect with people half as well as McCain.
TacticalFox88
Banned
Romney can barely connect with people in his social class, let alone those on the lower pyramid.
Are we forgetting how McCain just wandered around the stage for ninety minutes in a way that made his own advisers think "old man looking for a bathroom"?
cartoon_soldier
Member
Gallup is same today.
But O's approval is down to 48 with a +2 spread now. Approval is on 3 day rolling so all post debate.
Ras was same as yesterday. This is now completely post debate, with R 49 - O 47
More worrying though is that post debate Republican enthusiasm is now higher than Dems (post DNC).
Also...Funny!
Not that Liberals aren't doing their own unskewing...lol
But O's approval is down to 48 with a +2 spread now. Approval is on 3 day rolling so all post debate.
Ras was same as yesterday. This is now completely post debate, with R 49 - O 47
More worrying though is that post debate Republican enthusiasm is now higher than Dems (post DNC).
Also...Funny!
Not that Liberals aren't doing their own unskewing...lol
eBay Huckster
Member
The only Romney or Mandel signs I've even seen in Columbus are a handful scattered out toward Dublin and literally two next to the OSU campus. It's... surprisingly refreshing.
(Speaking of which, I'm writing a paper on The New Jim Crow right now and I am absolutely goddamn enthralled)
(Speaking of which, I'm writing a paper on The New Jim Crow right now and I am absolutely goddamn enthralled)
Yeah, I remember, but I think that's more of a gaffe than lack of connecting. Romney cannot connect with people gaffe's aside. At least McCain fought in a war while Romney campaigned for instituting the draft while he dodged it by trying to spread Mormonism in France. Maybe the overall impact of that gaffe is more significant.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Romney will do fine. He has clearly prepared for the debates like his life depended on it. He's quick on his feet and even proved to be funny. The question is whether Obama will show up
ryutaro's mama
Member
I demand links of where Romney was genuinely funny and not Michael Scott-esque awkward during that debate.
His Big Bird quip was an attempt @ humor and we all know how that worked out...
cartoon_soldier
Member
Yea, I expect Romney to do well in 2nd debate too. Polls confirm Romney won the first debate with a bigger margin than Obama ever had over McCain. Obama can't afford to lose another debate this badly.
jamesinclair
Banned
When's the vp debate?
It'll be glorious
It'll be glorious
Thursday I think. I want to see how Biden does against a real opponent.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Of course I keep hoping there is some hidden oppo on Romney that hasn't dropped yet. But doesn't look like it 
Dammit, now I'm surrounded on both sides. Both my neighbors put out Romney/Ryan yard signs. One neighbor has fucking 3 of them up now. I'm seeing way more of them as of recently.
Anyone else find it funny that the Romney yard signs are white?
I've barely seen any Romney/Ryan signs around where I live. I remember seeing a few Bush/Cheney and McCain/Palin signs though.
Romney is the GOP's version of John Kerry. People might not like the incumbent, but they're not too thrilled about their candidate either. Those who are voting for Romney are holding their noses at the same time.
I already have an Obama sign from '08. Gonna nab a Romney sign from somewhere in PA for shits and giggles, and as souvenir.
Thursday might.
A Republican co-worker/ buddy of mine might get drunk and watch it together.
Sorry, but I am lolling at this contextless anecdote.
The Librarian
Banned
Obama can afford to lose every debate. He'll still win.
People were talking about seeing (or not seeing) Romney/Ryan yard signs. My anecdote is about seeing Romney/Ryan yard signs.
The RAND poll was effectively static, too. It seems the small bump has arrested.
I bet you $10,000 he isn't.
Did you slash their tires like a good liberal?
Uh, if the first debate is any indication he sure can connect with voters.
Now this is bad news. Obama was at 54% before, his highest Gallup rating in eons, now he's down by 6 in only a couple days. Epic smh. That's how easily he had this debate in his pocket. Everyone was expecting him to just show up and put Romney away, now the dynamic is completely different because the Obama camp somehow thought acting like a skeptical professor was the best way to plead your case in front of some 67 million people.cartoon soldier said:
As for enthusiasm, it's as though the debate totally made voters forget about the GOP's embarrassing convention. Dems had the edge. This really blows.
Obama's camp really made a critical error in how they prepared for the first debate. I do think it was intentional for him to be so nuanced but it has to be one of the dumbest ideas I've ever seen out of a modern day campaign.
Obama will (hopefully) do better in the townhall, but I expect Romney to be foaming at the mouth not willing to let Obama make a resurgence, you can bet he's prepping like crazy to make this a reality.
I'll say this, Mitt is fully aware of how bad September hurt his campaign, and he's not going to let go of what he's gained since the first debate without putting everything he's got into his campaign now.
Sorry, I guess that's true. It just struck me as funny for some reason, without any info on where you are, how many people were taking the signs, etc.
For the good of the land.
I'm in West Virginia. I saw a good number of people leaving with them.
PhoenixDark
Banned
His joke about Obama spending his anniversary with him, the five boys quip?
I'll admit I did chuckle at that.
I'd refer to James Fallows's breakdown of the candidates's debating strengths here. Romney did very well when he was prepared, as you would expect him to, but even in this debate he made some notable misstatements and stumbles when he ended up on ground he wasn't fully prepared for. Big Bird, supporting vouchers, saying he's outsourced lots of jobs and never got a tax break, are all classic Romney-style gaffes that would've played more if Obama hadn't been so passive and become the story. Romney can prepare as much as he wants, and he will, but in a setting like a town hall the odds are that much greater that he'll be put in a situation he didn't plan, and when that happens, things have been going poorly for him all year.
Similarly, Obama losing the first debate is really well in keeping with both historical performances of incumbents and his personal debate capabilities. But historically incumbents do a lot better in the later debates. And the one time that most of us look to when we want to support the idea of Obama being a good debater? The Republican congressional retreat, where he stood up and took hostile questions, on topics of the questioner's choosing, for two hours, and more or less blew everybody away. Sounds like a town hall to me!
Not to split hairs, but one of those was script, and the second one was a bit creepy. But I admit that's kind of projecting based on how often Romney himself lies. I just imagined five tiny clones of himself constantly reversing previously held positions on how much candy they ate, or whether or not they applied crayon to the walls.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Yeah that was pretty funny. Being an internet user I immediately pictured ObamaXRomney fanfiction though. We just need PD to write it.
The movement in his approval rating doesn't mean a damn thing. It was at 48% only a week ago. It's been fluctuating within this range for a while. The drop is just the regression to the trend. Epic smh.
You are hard to take seriously. He got to 54% from 48% in three days, now he's back to 48% in three days. Guess what, approval rating is a volatile statistic, especially on a three-day tracker. I was talking about how weird that number was before the debate, so it shouldn't be a surprise that it was temporary. Why don't you actually look at the trendline before you make inferences like this? Because the graph is pretty revealing, and it still looks like good news for Obama right now.
edit: JACKSON CHEATED BY USING WORDS THAT ARE NORMALLY SIZED TO POST FASTER
As I already noted in IRC, it's ridiculous to comment on enthusiasm the week after an event. Wait and see how things shake out.
LOL YOU EDITED HAHAHAHA
And what do you suggest was the reason his approval shot to 54%? There's only one thing I can think of
random fluctuation
It's sad and intriguing to learn that you can't think of the concept of regression to the mean.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I think it's far more likely that the 54% sample was an outlier and it rolled out. Don't pay attention to the minor bumps, it's the trend that's important, and it's been high 40s, low 50s - making his odds of winning better than even money.
Seriously you do this like every week.
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