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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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C

coldfoot

Banned
LOL @ the Pew poll where the south is as important as the northeast and the west combined in terms of sample size, and 0 hispanics...
Shame on the 3% of black americans who want to vote for Romney.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Pew generally has a Democrat lean by a lot, no? So a Romney + 4 is more like a Romney +7, IIRC.

Does anyone think that makes any sense at all? At some point, you have to use some common sense.
 
E

el retorno

Member
PhoenixDark said:
It's hilarious watching you guys spin party ID numbers, after laughing at conservatives for doing the same.

Obama might have lost the election last week. It's not that he lost the debate: it's that he legitimized Romney. Before, this seemed to be a race between a somewhat popular president and his unacceptable challenger. Now this is truly a choice race between two candidates people feel comfortable with to varying degrees.

I wouldn't be surprised if Romney is almost ahead in Silver's model by this time next week
Click to expand...

You're post wasn't that bad and I actually agreed to an extent, that was until I read the bolded.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Hey PD, I'll make a bet with you.

If Obama is up in Silver's model this time next week, you can't post any analysis that is pro-Romney or anti-Obama in any way for 7 days.

I'll let you change my Av for a week.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Black Mamba said:
Hey PD, I'll make a bet with you.

If Obama is up in Silver's model this time next week, you can't post any analysis that is pro-Romney or anti-Obama in any way for 7 days.

I'll let you change my Av for a week.
Click to expand...

How about this: if Romney is ahead or within 10 percentage points
 
O

Owzers

Member
I'm going to give it a week before i freak out.

Save us Biden, don't like Ryan defeat you with more lies. You better have a good response for the Obama robbing 716billion out of medicare attack.
 
X

XenodudeX

Junior Member
reilo said:
Diablos and PhoenixDark made up their minds years ago that Obama wasn't going to get reelected -- and in PD's case, that he wasn't going to get elected period.

Ignore them. It's classical contrarian bullshittery that has been built up over a period of years. So any time a poll or event happens that reaffirms their years-long preconceived notions, then they double down on that like a drug addict.

The same bullshit will happen 4 years from now.
Click to expand...

I've already put them on ignore. I'm tired of reading their posts right now. Same shit different day.
 
S

SmokeMaxX

Member
I wish Intrade was freaking out as much as you guys were. Obama's currently at 67.5% which is like a 3 day high.

The fact of the matter is- you guys are freaking out over nothing. Obama had arguably one of the worst debate performances of all time and he STILL has at least a 66% chance of winning. Not to mention that there's no way Romney keeps up forward momentum.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
Yeah I'm going to bow out so I can finish this paper on ice cores already.

Also might not even be able to see Obama on campus tomorrow since the event doesn't look like it's actually going to start until 4 (and I've got an exam at 5:30)
 
P

pigeon

Banned
sillymonkey321 said:
I'm going to give it a week before i freak out.

Save us Biden, don't like Ryan defeat you with more lies. You better have a good response for the Obama robbing 716billion out of medicare attack.
Click to expand...

Watching Biden's style, I suspect he will take the first chance not merely to call Ryan a liar, but to talk about Romney lying in the debate and tie them together. It's his kind of move. We'll see how it does.
 
P

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
coldfoot said:
LOL @ the Pew poll where the south is as important as the northeast and the west combined in terms of sample size, and 0 hispanics...
Shame on the 3% of black americans who want to vote for Romney.
Click to expand...


I honestly don't understand how they have 0 hispanics with such a large sample size from the south.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
GaimeGuy said:
only in America can someone write off half of the population and still be seen as a viable candidate for the presidency.
Click to expand...

Only in America can someone lie their ass off nearly every single time they open their mouth in a debate and still be declared without question the winner overall by all sides...
 
T

Tom_Cody

Member
SmokeMaxX said:
I wish Intrade was freaking out as much as you guys were. Obama's currently at 67.5% which is like a 3 day high.

The fact of the matter is- you guys are freaking out over nothing. Obama had arguably one of the worst debate performances of all time and he STILL has at least a 66% chance of winning. Not to mention that there's no way Romney keeps up forward momentum.
Click to expand...
Basically. The debate result was historic. There is no way that whatever we're seeing won't be temporary. This will be remembered as the specific high point in Romney's political career.

All of the fundamental element of this election cycle will remain and the positive buzz from the debate will dissipate. Even if Romney does well in the next two debates, there is no way that he will be able to repeat the reaction he got from the one last week.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Yes, if Obama's lead goes down to 10% (winning the EC). I'll take that bet. From today until next monday

and btw, this
Click to expand...

It has to be below 10% this time and only this time next Monday in the EC projection. 5pm EST

I win, no more negative nancy about Obama from you for 7 days (this incorporates all your trolling). You win, you give me an av for 7 days.
 
D

Diablos

Member
This is just bad news no matter how you try to dish it out.

There's really no need for Democrats to be going at each others' throats over this, but it seems to be happening all over the place.

Tom_Cody said:
Basically. The debate result was historic. There is no way that whatever we're seeing won't be temporary. This will be remembered as the specific high point in Romney's political career.

All of the fundamental element of this election cycle will remain and the positive buzz from the debate will dissipate. Even if Romney does well in the next two debates, there is no way that he will be able to repeat the reaction he got from the one last week.
Click to expand...
He might not have to repeat it depending on Obama's performance and/or if voters will consider looking back in his direction regardless.
 
The Lamonster

The Lamonster

Member
Diablos said:
This is just bad news no matter how you try to dish it out.

There's really no need for Democrats to be going at each others' throats over this, but it seems to be happening all over the place.
Click to expand...

Are you even responding to anything in particular?

Gosh, I've only been casually browsing this thread for a few days now, and the Chicken Little stuff is starting to get annoying. Please contribute to this thread when you actually have stuff to contribute.
 
S

Sealda

Banned
RDreamer said:
Only in America can someone lie their ass off nearly every single time they open their mouth in a debate and still be declared without question the winner overall by all sides...
Click to expand...
Well why did not Obama point this obvious lie out! Just say : that is a lie! Whenever romney bring it up again just point it out again: oh there is that lie again!

I guess it was more interesting for bama to point out how similiar him and romney is on social security lol
 
S

SmokeMaxX

Member
RDreamer said:
Only in America can someone lie their ass off nearly every single time they open their mouth in a debate and still be declared without question the winner overall by all sides...
Click to expand...

Just because someone wins doesn't mean you have to agree with them. There's a percentage of people who actually care about politics. That percentage is split (roughly) evenly among the two parties (and then a smaller percentage to the fringe parties). However another large percentage of people don't really give a shit about politics. They might vote along party lines or for one particular issue. More disturbing than that, you have a ton of voters who basically flip a coin as to who they vote for. You might have some who vote for Obama because he's black. You might have some that DON'T vote for Obama because he's black. The point is that these low-information voters vote for things as stupid as appearance. While it sucks that you have a large percentage of voters that do that stuff, you have to cater to them by appearing more Presidential. That's the reality. If the split is 33% Dem, 33% Rep, 33% low-info, should you try to hit 50% by going for the Republicans or going for the low-info voters? That's massively over-simplified, but the point is- Romney's probably not going to score points by appealing to liberal viewpoints. He might as well look as Presidential as possible. That's why he won.
 
R

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
I love the pivot here.

"It's all about the economy! If the economy sucks, Obama winning the debates won't matter one bit!"

*economy improves*

"It's all about the debates! Nobody cares about unemployment dropping to the lowest level in 4 years!"
 
D

Diablos

Member
The Lamonster said:
Are you even responding to anything in particular?

Gosh, I've only been casually browsing this thread for a few days now, and the Chicken Little stuff is starting to get annoying. Please contribute to this thread when you actually have stuff to contribute.
Click to expand...
This entire thread is a tit-for-that between blind enthusiasm and Obama supporters who can't discredit how badly the first debate may end up hurting him. You could complain about it either way.

I'm out for a bit.
 
N

NullPointer

Member
Diablos said:
This is just bad news no matter how you try to dish it out.
Click to expand...
Count me in as someone who thinks the debates matter. Romney's and Obama's performance was enough to solidify the support of the hesitant conservative radio crowd and I'm certain it led to shifts in people who were only barely leaning Obama.

There are too many voters who will never hear about Romney's lies after the fact.

That said, the very same things that make that last debate so horrible could also end up swing more independent voters that have waited until the debates and the election to draw near before trying to learn more details.

So the exact end result of the debates on the polls and the election? I have no idea. But I wouldn't really go with a policy where anything is let to slide. Everything matters.
 
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
SmokeMaxX said:
I wish Intrade was freaking out as much as you guys were. Obama's currently at 67.5% which is like a 3 day high.

The fact of the matter is- you guys are freaking out over nothing. Obama had arguably one of the worst debate performances of all time and he STILL has at least a 66% chance of winning. Not to mention that there's no way Romney keeps up forward momentum.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I think I am going to do the intrade thing, but funds will take forever to clear. I would love to pick up some Obama stock at around 6.00/share!
 
F

Forever

Banned
I'm trying to give Diablos the benefit of the doubt and just assume that he doesn't want to feel let down on November 7th or something so he's overcompensating to lower expectations.
 
R

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
Diablos said:
This entire thread is a tit-for-that between blind enthusiasm and Obama supporters who can't discredit how badly the first debate may end up hurting him. You could complain about it either way.

I'm out for a bit.
Click to expand...

No, no, no. That's not what it is at all.

The only ones with blind enthusiasm or vigor for anything are you and PD. Everyone else is saying to chill the fuck out and quit giving too much weight to an outlier with a bad sampling.
 
C

codhand

Member
Diablos said:
I'm out for a bit.
Click to expand...

rnd-rudy.gif
 
D

Dram

Member
Congressman opens voting rights probe of tea party group

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-voting-rights-tea-party-20121004,0,3351653.story
A Maryland congressman has opened an investigation of a group that has tried to remove thousands of voters from registration rolls across the nation in advance of the presidential election.

The inquiry by Rep. Elijah E. Cummings , a Democrat, is being started a week after Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) urged the Justice Department to enforce voting rights laws, citing a Los Angeles Times article detailing attempts by an Ohio offshoot of the group, True the Vote, to strike hundreds of students and others from voting rolls.

“At some point, an effort to challenge voter registrations by the thousands without any legitimate basis may be evidence of illegal voter suppression,” Cummings told True the Vote founder Catherine Engelbrecht in a letter on Thursday. “If these efforts are intentional, politically motivated and widespread across multiple states, they could amount to a criminal conspiracy to deny legitimate voters their constitutional rights.”

Cummings is the ranking minority member of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.

Engelbrecht, a Texas tea party leader, has described True the Vote as an effort to prevent election fraud and clean up voter registration rolls. The group recruits volunteers, largely through tea party networks, to scour voter lists, challenge the registration of those they believe are dead or do not live at their listed address, and monitor the polls on election day.

“True The Vote has forwarded Congressman Cummings’ letter to its legal team and is more than happy to avail itself” to the congressional committee, the group’s spokesman, Logan Churchwell, said by email. “In the interim, True The Vote invites Congressman Cummings, or any other interested parties, to participate in any training sessions in the weeks ahead.”

The Times article described efforts by the Ohio Voter Integrity Project, a spinoff of True the Vote, to remove more than 2,100 names from voter rolls. Hundreds of them were college students the group tried to strike from the rolls for failure to specify their dorm room numbers. Local election boards declined to remove any of them.

The Ohio group also challenged the rights of eight members of an African American family to vote from an address it identified as a vacant lot outside Cincinnati. But the address was actually the house where the family had lived for nearly three decades. The family suspected race was the group’s motive. The white tea party activist who challenged the family said she had made a mistake and apologized.

In his letter, Cummings expressed concerns about the Ohio voter challenges, as well as others reported in North Carolina, Wisconsin and Maryland. He asked True the Vote to provide information “about the data you have been using to challenge voter registrations, the training you have been providing volunteers to conduct these activities, and the manner in which you have been determining where to deploy your resources in select jurisdictions.”
Click to expand...
Times Article that started the probe

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-ohio-voting-fight-20120927,0,811761.story
 
R

RDreamer

Member
SmokeMaxX said:
Just because someone wins doesn't mean you have to agree with them. There's a percentage of people who actually care about politics. That percentage is split (roughly) evenly among the two parties (and then a smaller percentage to the fringe parties). However another large percentage of people don't really give a shit about politics. They might vote along party lines or for one particular issue. More disturbing than that, you have a ton of voters who basically flip a coin as to who they vote for. You might have some who vote for Obama because he's black. You might have some that DON'T vote for Obama because he's black. The point is that these low-information voters vote for things as stupid as appearance. While it sucks that you have a large percentage of voters that do that stuff, you have to cater to them by appearing more Presidential. That's the reality. If the split is 33% Dem, 33% Rep, 33% low-info, should you try to hit 50% by going for the Republicans or going for the low-info voters? That's massively over-simplified, but the point is- Romney's probably not going to score points by appealing to liberal viewpoints. He might as well look as Presidential as possible. That's why he won.
Click to expand...

I realize this, but the media still should have jumped on his ass directly after the debate. That's what I'm saying. I realize that low information voters will go for style rather than substance right off the bat. You're not going to help that much at all. What the media should have done is said that yes, Romney looked far better, more invigorated and commanding, but also lied his goddamned ass off and gave all the examples of his lies. Journalism. That's what I'm lamenting in this country. Journalism isn't just reporting "Welp, Romney won because a bunch of idiots thought he looked good." Sure, report that, I don't give a fuck, but also report on the substance.

Just as the ideology makeup of the people watching has 3 parts, like you said, a debate should consist of two parts: style and substance. Everyone is reporting on only one of those two parts, and it's fucking appalling. It's understandable maybe when both of them are stretching the truth a bit, etc, but this was a sort of historic twisting of the facts by Romney.
 
J

jbug617

Banned
Nate Silver has spoken to the crazy democrats who are screaming the sky is falling.

According to Twitter, Barack Obama went from a huge favorite at 1 PM to a huge underdog at 4 PM. Get a grip, people.
Click to expand...
255412550932516864
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Sealda said:
Well why did not Obama point this obvious lie out! Just say : that is a lie! Whenever romney bring it up again just point it out again: oh there is that lie again!

I guess it was more interesting for bama to point out how similiar him and romney is on social security lol
Click to expand...

Look, I don't want to make excuses or sugarcoat Obama's bad performance here, but realistically he didn't have the time to bat down all of those lies. I mean it's astounding how many Romney threw up. At the same time, if someone is lying to you with a specific number, the only way to combat it is with a specific number. If you don't, then people will believe you're just deflecting and the other guy wins. I doubt he had some of those numbers with him. I think he still may have been better off trying to combat some of them...

I get the feeling he combated the big ones that he knew the specifics and stats on, but got lost in quite a few of the others.
 
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