Instead of posting new things, maybe you should just post this every time instead.
Same effect.
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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Same effect.
Claiming pew needs to be unskewed really
Black Mamba
Member
Their model is telling them that democrats are staying home and repubs won't. That explains the gains.
But the RV model swung by a lot, too. This indicates Romney supporters more likely to answer the phone than normal thanks to the debates.
Which is why I cautioned the immediate polling. We've already seen wild swings in Ras and Gallup as a result, both ways.
I'm not claiming it needs to be unskewed. I'm saying they missed a large segment of the population so it's hard to say how serious to take this poll.
Remember, 1 out of every 20 polls will be an outlier no matter what. Go look at my posts, I've been very consistent saying to wait for polls of this week.
He is not in any damn trouble.
Debates means nothing. Now playingolls means nothing. And launching this thursday night: its not about the vp anyway.
November 6th: votes don't mean much
This is it. It's not a great poll, but we already knew that every poll that includes Thursday and Friday was horrible for Obama, while the weekend looks significantly better. Neither this nor the dkos poll are wildly out of line with what we should expect. So let's see what happens.
Byakuya769
Member
Don't you hate it when people just cannot stop at a trilogy!
This is like the most atypical last few pages of PoliGAF. The usual suspects try to extrapolate from short-term effects to shout "TOLD YOU SO DOOMED" from their months-and-years-long even preconceived notions.
In other words, Diablos, PhoenixDark: stop the confirmation bias bullshit. You guys are being low-information voters.
In other words, Diablos, PhoenixDark: stop the confirmation bias bullshit. You guys are being low-information voters.
Context?
Apparently more people live in the South than in the West & Northeast combined
Northeast + West = 424
South = 417
Your argument is invalid.
The Lamonster
Member
not in 2000
eBay Huckster
Member
I hope you're referring to me so I can tell you how clearly I'm joking.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not necessarily trying to discredit it, I just don't think (admittedly based largely on the evidence we've seen already from Gallup, Ras and PPP) that this poll is necessarily going to be representative of where the race currently stands.
I think we're starting to see a pattern here:
1. Diablos kneejerks
2. I and/or Black Mamba bring up something... odd
3. ??? (usually everyone tells Diablos to "wait for the rest of the polls jesus christ")
4. Backpats!
You've gotta be kidding me.
This Pew poll is really horrible news. It erased all of Obama's lead on economic/tax issues, and made everything else damn near dead even.
Officerrob
Banned
So a poll that has a large number of southern voters, no Hispanics, and taken during the 48 hour period where Romney flashed hot shows him ahead? No shit
Black Mamba
Member
I'd say Romney +4 is out of line for a 4 day polling period. If it was just thurs/fri, sure. But this is a massive swing and I can't imagine this is accurate.
I mean, we have 2 daily trackers showing gains back for Obama, 2 others showing no new gains. Then a couple other polls showing it much closer than +4.
+4 for Romney is a massive swing, statistically. And no one else is showing this swing, which makes this poll seem peculiar.
I'm not faulting the methodology. This could be a sampling error issue which isn't in Pew's control. This happens all the time.
Hellsing321
Member
So now that Obama is officially doomed, what does Romney's first day as president look like? Does he fire Big Bird first thing in the morning?
Yet.
eBay Huckster
Member
They already showed this swing last week, for the most part.
4 day period. Including yesterday.
One poll a trend does not make. If every other major polling firm over the week shows increasingly large gains for Romney versus the relatively small ones shown over the past few days, then yes, that's a trend. If not, then it's an outlier. We don't know at this point.
Officerrob
Banned
I hope he makes an executive order putting Diablos on mood stabilizers
I really think you are doing this on purpose now.
eBay Huckster
Member
Diablos is to OT4 as PD was to OT3
e:
Rachel Maddow at 25
I don't know if this has circulated around before but this is new to me.
...She looks eerily like one of my ex-girlfriends there.
Black Mamba
Member
They're showing a swing back, though. For Ras to go back to tied means Obama was +6 or so today.
Gallup was at least +10.
I'd love to see Pew's daily numbers. I have a feeling it is something like +10 Romney for 2 days, then tied the net two.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
LOL at those internals. How does a poll like that even get released?
Also, just saw that foreign policy speech by Romney. Say goodbye to that momentum.
I'm not.
Like Cheebs pointed out it includes yesterday. So stop beating your chests. I'm entitled to my opinions as are you but don't accuse me of trolling.
PhoenixDark
Banned
It's hilarious watching you guys spin party ID numbers, after laughing at conservatives for doing the same.
Obama might have lost the election last week. It's not that he lost the debate: it's that he legitimized Romney. Before, this seemed to be a race between a somewhat popular president and his unacceptable challenger. Now this is truly a choice race between two candidates people feel comfortable with to varying degrees.
I wouldn't be surprised if Romney is almost ahead in Silver's model by this time next week
Obama might have lost the election last week. It's not that he lost the debate: it's that he legitimized Romney. Before, this seemed to be a race between a somewhat popular president and his unacceptable challenger. Now this is truly a choice race between two candidates people feel comfortable with to varying degrees.
I wouldn't be surprised if Romney is almost ahead in Silver's model by this time next week
Diablos and PhoenixDark made up their minds years ago that Obama wasn't going to get reelected -- and in PD's case, that he wasn't going to get elected period.
Ignore them. It's classical contrarian bullshittery that has been built up over a period of years. So any time a poll or event happens that reaffirms their years-long preconceived notions, then they double down on that like a drug addict.
The same bullshit will happen 4 years from now.
Ignore them. It's classical contrarian bullshittery that has been built up over a period of years. So any time a poll or event happens that reaffirms their years-long preconceived notions, then they double down on that like a drug addict.
The same bullshit will happen 4 years from now.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
If you are banking on Democrats keeping the Senate with a Romney win, good luck. I think you are starting to believe your drivel.
Like I said many times right now, this shtick is gotten beyond old now.
Yeah I think i goign to do that.
Most importantly if the Pew poll is any indication of what's to come from other pollsters, Obama erased his lead on what this election is about - the economy and taxes.
Everything else, he's leading, but only by 3 or 4, which is a steep drop.
eBay Huckster
Member
and like Black Mamba repeatedly pointed out, not only does it also include Thursday and Friday, which were significantly better days for Romney, but it's also directly contradicted by everyone else who's released a poll including post-debate numbers
not only that but Pew isn't a tracker so daily samples weren't necessarily equal
It's more hilarious how you extrapolated my joking post about that into all of PoliGAF joining in. I've made it!
Unless Hilary is in the race then no matter the bad news she will always win no matter what (for PD).
Black Mamba
Member
I have not mentioned party ID numbers once. FFS, only Ras really uses Party ID. Pew's methodology isn't at issue here. Sampling error happens all the time.
Every other poll today is saying the opposite of this one.
lmao
MasterShotgun
brazen editing lynx
I take it October is normally the crazy month for polls. I'm starting to wish I had followed this stuff more closely in previous elections, although I guess I have the excuse of this being the first time I'm voting.
iamshadowlark
Banned
He'll flip a coin, heads he assassinates big bird, tails he repeals obamacare.
You are saying that women will start voting in support of Romney in even numbers based on the Pew Poll? ARE YOU LISTENING TO YOURSELF?
eBay Huckster
Member
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