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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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I'm not sure October is any more volatile than normal. It might seem more volatile recently because the focus has been on minor shifts in the polls. So they seem volatile because we're focused, ignoring a few outliers, on minor variations. For all we know, we might be obsessing over noise.
You're correct about the first and last point. Although I'd prefer Biden's victory to shift public opinion, it will likely prove inconsequential. The second, however, is an erroneous characterization. I only miss the tired reference to The Hive.Debates means nothing. Now playingolls means nothing. And launching this thursday night: its not about the vp anyway.
TacticalFox88
Banned
Diablos and PD need a new tag. Seriously. The ones they have aren't cutting it anymore.
Black Mamba
Member
uh, you are the one who said Obama 55-45. It has to be below that. Okay, if it's exactly 55-45, you win too. I don't want you claiming victory at 55.9-44.1 That's all.
Bro, he's got 6 different avatar bets going on. He's playing you.
Black Mamba
Member
i'm not betting for his Av, though.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Relio is right, I have too many bets. I don't want to ruin your avatar with basketball season/Lakers implosion on the horizon.
besides I still have to wear this avatar due to a bet
The Librarian
Banned
eBay Huckster - "Try to look at the big picture."
Black Mamba - "These numbers don't correlate with established trends. There's no sense in the 37% to 56% jump!"
Black Mamba - "These numbers don't correlate with established trends. There's no sense in the 37% to 56% jump!"
If you look at the Pew poll before the debate the party breakdown was R-31, D-38 and I-31. It was basically D+7
The one after the debate was R-36, D-33, I-30. So it was R+3. So this is due to Romney winning the debate and more republicans answering the phone. This lead to the 10 point republican tilt from D+7 to R+3.
It would be the best day ever if Silver trolled PD in a tweet lol
Black Republican
Member
in the span of 3 hours, what the fuck poligaf! lmao
The drama continues...
The drama continues...
Officerrob
Banned
Diablos and PD did their thing.......
Doc Holliday
SPOILER: Columbus finds America
So Polls are trustworthy good again? Thank God!
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Yeah, it's really ludicrous. I'm stunned he took that stance today when it's so unpopular.
Black Republican
Member
forget facebook/twitter feeds, we need to direct friends and family to this thread.
instant classic
instant classic
Black Mamba
Member
pretty hilarious how RCP is using Gallup's tied article as it's Gallup poll, not the +5 one which went up for Obama today. lol
edit: more war and more tax cut. Gives Obama a bigger talking point regarding the Bush policies. Why doesn't Obama even mention Bush? I would say Romney is proposing war and tax cuts just like Bush did. 2 things that killed our deficit and economy (as a talking point).
edit: more war and more tax cut. Gives Obama a bigger talking point regarding the Bush policies. Why doesn't Obama even mention Bush? I would say Romney is proposing war and tax cuts just like Bush did. 2 things that killed our deficit and economy (as a talking point).
Well he has to explain somehow how he wants to expand military by 2 trillion dollars!
Hobbestetrician
Member
They are good at that. Took months of good polls for them to switch Ohio to Lean Obama but took it away after one not so good poll. Also didn't add Nevada to Lean Obama (despite crossing the +5% average) because it would have put Obama over 270.
If you PM the guy on the forums (under General Discussion), you can get your funds cleared within the same day. You can PM me for how much he charges for his services (I don't want to publicly display private information). I gave him $500 blindly and got back what I was supposed to get back into my account as fast as possible. Actually I think "he" might be a "she" but I'm not quite sure.
You're never going to get Obama at $6 a share though. It hasn't been that low in since September 11th. I doubt it's going to drop that low again. There's just not that much time left in the election cycle. Voting has already started in a lot of places and the Election is in less than a month. If it drops to $6.40 or below I'd definitely jump on it. Knowing my luck though, I'll jump on $6.40/share and then Obama repeats another terrible debate performance. Anyway, I'm not worried about Obama losing- he has roughly an 80-90% shot at winning. He could probably lose all three debates and still win fairly comfortably.
Agree, looks like the perfect opportunity to equate Mitt to Bush, who is hated by most Americans.
Sirpopopop
Member
Wouldn't you be claiming victory at that point?
Edit: Doesn't matter, looks like PD bailed on the bet.
Yep,I an not sure how he though this is a good idea.
Pitiful. You're looking as pathetic as Obama did on debate night.
NullPointer
Member
If you're not spreading war you're projecting weakness.
And hey, once we knock out Syria and Iran with our one-two punch, the Neocon dream can finally be realized. Got to strike while the iron is hot.
Sirpopopop
Member
Not unless he wants it to go lower.
Gives Obama data that he will prepare for that he will walk back at the debate.
"I didn't say more wars!"
"You did. Right here."
"Well that's your interpretation, I can get someone else who doesn't share your opinion."
"Wtf?"
Heh, You noticed that too?
The media is fucking that chicken until the very end of this election cycle.
Oh, and Mitt's stepped in it again;
FACT CHECK: Romney's one-sided story on trade, defense
http://news.yahoo.com/fact-check-one-sided-story-trade-defense-190815851--election.html
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
lol, I didn't even realize. PD was a big proponent of the debates don't matter, all that matters is the economy stupid.
Doc Holliday
SPOILER: Columbus finds America
Now i see why everyone who ran against Romney hated his guts. That man is just so full of shit lol. It's really unbelievable, I mean the balls. I really have no idea what he would do if he actually won. That my friends is a fucking scary thing :/
Bama should stay on top for the foreseeable future. I don't see anyone on their schedule giving them trouble apart from LSU. Oregon has a tougher schedule ahead.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Uh-oh. Hitting the panic button
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/255380627577266176
eBay Huckster said he was up 7 points the last poll.
Dr. Pangloss
Member
Would Diablos and PD acknowledge something for me? That there is a very high correlation of Democratic Senators winning their states with Obama also winning that state. Currently this is the breakdown of swing state Senators by 538:
State - Senator (Party) - Positive Polling Average
Florida - Nelson (D) - 7.4
Nevada - Heller (R) - 2.6
Ohio - Brown (D) - 7.1
Virginia - Kaine (D) - 2.6
Wisconsin - Baldwin (D) - 2.8
How many people do you think will split their tickets? PD is always talking about Romney winning and having a Republican Congress and Senate. But if Democratic Senatorial candidates are in the lead, then it's also likely that Obama will pick up similar voters. PD, do you honestly think that Romney will win the Presidency and the Republicans won't win the Senate? And conversely, do you honestly believe that Democrats holding the Senate while Obama loses?
My main point is that if the Democrats keep the Senate as the polling shows, then it is more probably that Obama will win. Both are more likely to occur than just one or the other.
State - Senator (Party) - Positive Polling Average
Florida - Nelson (D) - 7.4
Nevada - Heller (R) - 2.6
Ohio - Brown (D) - 7.1
Virginia - Kaine (D) - 2.6
Wisconsin - Baldwin (D) - 2.8
How many people do you think will split their tickets? PD is always talking about Romney winning and having a Republican Congress and Senate. But if Democratic Senatorial candidates are in the lead, then it's also likely that Obama will pick up similar voters. PD, do you honestly think that Romney will win the Presidency and the Republicans won't win the Senate? And conversely, do you honestly believe that Democrats holding the Senate while Obama loses?
My main point is that if the Democrats keep the Senate as the polling shows, then it is more probably that Obama will win. Both are more likely to occur than just one or the other.
eBay Huckster
Member
Popping back in for a mo' to post some preliminary Minnesota results.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/minnesota-marriage-amendment-narrowly-trails.html
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/minnesota-marriage-amendment-narrowly-trails.html
Yeah, I've been trying to make this point for a while now using Baldwin as the example. Along with that, I think this shows that his support should be easy to win back. There aren't going to be a metric ton of split Baldwin/Romney tickets, I can tell you that. Baldwin's pretty liberal and is being painted as an extreme liberal here. If she wins, Obama wins. There's really no question in my mind about that.
eBay Huckster
Member
now playing: phoenix dark - tenth avenue freak out
On the bright side, maybe this scare means democrats will be more motivated to get the hell out and vote.
Edit: HAH! They're finally running a Thompson commercial with the "Who better than me to do away with medicaid and medicare" line.
Dude's done.
Though with that I think Baldwin could actually win with a Romney victory despite what I just said out there... if they push this hard enough anyway.
Edit: HAH! They're finally running a Thompson commercial with the "Who better than me to do away with medicaid and medicare" line.
Dude's done.
Though with that I think Baldwin could actually win with a Romney victory despite what I just said out there... if they push this hard enough anyway.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
It better wake Obama up to actually go on the offensive at the debates.
Seriously, I have no clue what was going on or why they decided to go that route at the first debate. It makes absolutely zero sense.
The one article I read said that Obama was just incredibly back and forth with practice debates. They said he was like his campaign self once and then the next day was like he was for the real debate.
Problem isn't really a concentrated decision, really. The problem for incumbents is that they have to run a country at the same time as campaigning, and so practice gets pushed aside. Hopefully this is the bug in his butt to go harder and better next time, though.
RustyNails
Member
Michelle could say to Obama no sex for u till he gets his shit together.But alas we all know from PDs insight tht she doesnt even love him
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