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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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T

TacticalFox88

Banned
Tim-E said:
They got YOU, too?
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dc1e760507ffdb4a60055525123980aa.gif
[/IMG]

This is all the panickers reaction toward the news.
 
T

Tom_Cody

Member
RDreamer said:
The Romney bounce just isn't making any sense to me. He should have lost at least a bit of it because of the unemployment news... Unless the rights fucking conspiracy got hold of that. Still if he's getting a ~3 point bounce now just think what it'd be with mediocre unemployment numbers or an uptick.

It gets weirder with Obama's approval going up, too...
Click to expand...
Eh, overall the jobs numbers are still bad overall. The 7.8 does specifically sort of set on Romney's talking point, but no one in the Obama camp is going to be out on TV spiking the football over that jobs report.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
thefro said:
I think it'd be Obama +3 among RVs... most of this "bounce" is LV kicking in on Gallup.
Click to expand...

So, did the debate perhaps get some wavering Obama voters to decide they might not vote?

I could see that. A lot of youth I know are still disappointed in Obama and politics in general, but are voting for Obama purely because Romney scares the fuck out of them. His moderate debate may have made them switch.
 
M

MasterShotgun

brazen editing lynx
My supply of optimism is depleting, but I'm not worried yet. I'll save all of my panicking for November 6 in the event that Romney actually wins.
 
R

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
RDreamer said:
So, did the debate perhaps get some wavering Obama voters to decide they might not vote?

I could see that. A lot of youth I know are still disappointed in Obama and politics in general, but are voting for Obama purely because Romney scares the fuck out of them. His moderate debate may have made them switch.
Click to expand...

Nah, just means that the republicans were REALLY enthusiastic in their commitment to vote for Romney. They really love that guy now. They really do!
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Averon said:
Freaking out over a Big Bird ad. Jeez. You all are acting like Obama is basing the rest of his campaign on Big Bird. Again, Dems cannot handle adversity at all. Their immediate reaction is to panic and fold. It's no wonder why this party gets its ass kicked more often than not by the GOP.
Click to expand...

Indeed. Romney lands a punch and now it is the end of the world. Learn from it and roll on. It is not like Big Bird is a big issue but the fact that the most memorable thing to come out of that debate is Big Bird is positive for Obama.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
schuelma said:
As far as what? I'm not an Obama supporter, but I concede he is still the favorite..but this is going to be a hell of a lot closer than 2008.
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That's been true all along. Regardless of if Obama had a better debate or not. No excuse for anyone to think he's got this in the bag
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
schuelma said:
As far as what?
Click to expand...

Chicken littling.

I wasn't on PoliGAF in 2008 (I was exclusively posting on Something Awful) but I'd imagine it was as glorious a wasteland of panic and Dem infighting as the D&D Obama megathreads - these threads really haven't had a different trajectory.
 
W

WaltJay

Member
So the moral of the debate story is to tell as many lies as you like, just so long as you can lie in an animated (people want energy!) and convincing (he has a straight face; he can't be lying!) manner. Apparently the public doesn't bother with the follow-up fact-checking.

Maybe for the last 15 minutes of each debate should be dedicated to the candidates responding to their statements after they were fact-checked. Hey, we can all dream, right?
 
P

pigeon

Banned
RDreamer said:
The Romney bounce just isn't making any sense to me. He should have lost at least a bit of it because of the unemployment news... Unless the rights fucking conspiracy got hold of that. Still if he's getting a ~3 point bounce now just think what it'd be with mediocre unemployment numbers or an uptick.

It gets weirder with Obama's approval going up, too...
Click to expand...

I'm going to take a break and be the crazy one for a second.

My operating theory, as noted, as that Romney's debate was a bounce and the jobs report was a no-op, so the weekend improvement was the debate bounce decaying.

It's also possible, though, that Romney's debate improvement was a lift rather than a bounce (which is not out of line with norms) and that Obama got a bounce from the jobs report, which flattened out Romney's improvement over the weekend but which is now decaying. This would align with the available data and explain why Obama seemed to do worst on Thursday and Friday, better on the weekend, but now is seeing some decay again in trackers and state polls.

In this case we should expect to see the race resettle at, again, around where it was before the 47% comments, which was of course still a pretty solid lead for Obama.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
reilo said:
Nah, just means that the republicans were REALLY enthusiastic in their commitment to vote for Romney. They really love that guy now. They really do!
Click to expand...

Judging by the amount of signs that sprung up around me directly after that debate, this is probably true. As I said in here before, now both my neighbors have signs. One has freaking 3. Before the debate neither did. My drive through towns around here shows the same sort of thing.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
There was quite a bit of panic here throughout 2008 if I recall correctly, despite every indicator showing a comfortable Obama win.
 
R

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
Tim-E said:
There was quite a bit of panic here throughout 2008 if I recall correctly, despite every indicator showing a comfortable Obama win.
Click to expand...

Sarah Palin was going to get all of the Hillary voters.
 
S

syllogism

Member
You can't entirely conclude that the bounce is gone even if the numbers among registered voters go back to pre-debate levels because it's possible the increased republican enthusiasm improves Romney's likely voter share
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
Tim-E said:
There was quite a bit of panic here throughout 2008 if I recall correctly, despite every indicator showing a comfortable Obama win.
Click to expand...

In early September after the Palin pick when McCain got a big bounce, sure. But October was pretty smooth sailing.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Dem pollster delivers wake up call to Obama

Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg is not known for flinching from delivering bad news to Democratic politicians, and his new diagnosis of Obama’s slippage in the polls is no exception.

Greenberg told me in an interview that his new research persuaded him that Mitt Romney beat Obama in the debate for a simple reason. Unmarried women — a critical piece of Obama’s coalition — did not hear Obama telling him how they would make their lives better. By contrast, they did hear Romney telling them he’d improve their lives.

Greenberg says the research also indicates a clear route to winning reelection, however. “This is a major turning point and an opportunity for the president,” he says.

Greenberg did dial sessions among Colorado swing voters during the debate, and also conducted post-debate questionnaires. He found that unmarried women didn’t respond to Obama’s vow to improve the economy — which they found lacking in a clear overarching message.

“They heard nothing there that was relevant to them,” Greenberg says. “They were not hearing about issues or problems or things that Obama would do that affect their lives.”

Romney, however, succeeded in communicating with unmarried women, Greenberg says, by prefacing talk of his five point plan with an extended discussion of the economic strain of middle-income Americans — which Greenberg calls an effective “set up that gave his details meaning.”

“When Romney talked about what he is going to do for the middle class, his five point plan, they were very responsive,” Greenberg says. “The president had a lot of detail but didn’t have the set up in values.”

Unmarried women are a key piece of the “rising American electorate,” which includes young voters and minorities and propelled Obama's 2008 victory. “The key issues for them are the suite of economic issues around rebuilding the middle class,” Page Gardner, the president of Women’s Voices Women Vote, who commissioned Greenberg’s research, says. “They are the most stressed and stretched.”

Greenberg’s research also included a national survey, and focus groups in Ohio and Virginia, that suggest a course correction for Obama. The national survey found that before the debate, Obama was doing extremely well among unmarried women, beating Romney among them by 63-24. He held a 19 point edge among them on who would do better on “issues important to you.”

Greenberg says they were waiting for Obama to reinforce those perceptions — but he didn’t deliver. Greenberg believes that slippage among these voters is partly driving Romney’s gains. But he says Obama can still win them back, with a message fusing attacks on Romney’s comments about the “47 percent” with a passionate thematic contrasting Obama’s “we’re all in this together” values with Romney’s “you’re on your own” approach.

Indeed, Greenberg tested the following and found that 72 percent of unmarried women say it makes them more likely to support Obama:

When I look at our great challenges, I say, we’re all in this together. But the Republicans say, you are your own. Well that’s given us a country of just rich and poor and the well-connected using their power to get more tax cuts and breaks. Well, we need to make our country work for the middle class again. Clean up lobbyists and big money. Let’s keep taxes low for the middle class and small businesses and use the budget to help the middle class by seriously investing in education, rebuilding America, and making sure Medicare is there.

“The 47 percent critique is very important because it says Romney doesn’t understand their lives,” Greenberg concluded. By contrast, Obama needs to signal that he “understands what they are going through. They are looking for him to offer things that will impact their lives.”
Click to expand...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...e870c78-122e-11e2-ba83-a7a396e6b2a7_blog.html

It's becoming clear Obama had a lot of support based around the assumption that Romney was an unacceptable choice. That entire narrative has been thrown out the window with an assist from Obama, who didn't challenge him in the debate nor brought up the 47% comment.


And for Dax:
Favorite part of the Romney bounce: How stupid the "debates don't matter/Obama has this locked" crowd looks.
Click to expand...
https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/255721594268315648
 
S

Snake

Member
We won't really have a clear picture of the race until saturday at the earliest. That will have taken most of the peak post-debate bounce out of the picture in the daily tracking polls, and we'll see what kind of real staying power Romney's bounce had.

As it stands, things are in flux to such a degree that we can't make concrete conclusions about the future of the race. Gallup and Ipsos changing to their likely voter models amidst this turmoil is just about the worst timing ever, but it's simply another very good reason to restrain overly pessimistic/optimistic views for a while.

So it'll be a long week, and it may turn out that we have reason to worry when we get there, but that time is not now.
 
L

Loudninja

Member
Snake said:
We won't really have a clear picture of the race until saturday at the earliest. That will have taken most of the peak post-debate bounce out of the picture in the daily tracking polls, and we'll see what kind of real staying power Romney's bounce had.

As it stands, things are in flux to such a degree that we can't make concrete conclusions about the future of the race. Gallup and Ipsos changing to their likely voter models amidst this turmoil is just about the worst timing ever, but it's simply another very good reason to restrain overly pessimistic/optimistic views for a while.

So it'll be a long week, and it may turn out that we have reason to worry when we get there, but that time is not now.
Click to expand...
Thank you,gaf is driving me insane.
 
D

Downhome

Member
I fully admit that I am not supporting Obama for reelection, I'm not afraid to just put that out there. I am however someone who doesn't think it'll be the end of the world no matter who wins, and I don't think we're heading towards any sort of paradise with either guy as well. I believe that the race is up for grabs for either guy, depending solely upon on what happens all the way up to election day. I have never for a second thought either Obama or Romney has it locked, and the back and forth is fully expected by me. I'm not even that fond of Romney, and would have been happy with just about any other Republican candidate. Ok, now that that's out there, I have a serious question for those of you who fully support Obama...

For those of you who are not worried at all, that feel it is a lock for Obama right now, what would it take for you to really start to question things and start to think that Romney just may pull this off? What would it take for that worry to really set in for you guys? Would it be for Romney to lead in the polls for a full cycle? A major gaffe by Obama or Biden? A lot started to worry after that first debate. Heck, if some of you are there now, what got you to that point after being so sure of things before?

Serious question, not looking for a debate or argument. I'm just curious, that is all.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Would be amazing to see Obama win electoral and Romney win popular just for the reversal of opinions from the GOP about the electoral college.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
Snake said:
We won't really have a clear picture of the race until saturday at the earliest. That will have taken most of the peak post-debate bounce out of the picture in the daily tracking polls, and we'll see what kind of real staying power Romney's bounce had.

As it stands, things are in flux to such a degree that we can't make concrete conclusions about the future of the race. Gallup and Ipsos changing to their likely voter models amidst this turmoil is just about the worst timing ever, but it's simply another very good reason to restrain overly pessimistic/optimistic views for a while.

So it'll be a long week, and it may turn out that we have reason to worry when we get there, but that time is not now.
Click to expand...

Of course by then we'll be wondering what effect Biden trying to give Ryan a wedgie on live TV had on the race
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Tim-E said:
They got YOU, too?
Click to expand...
Tempered expectations are never a bad thing.

If Romney does sustain his bounce and Obama doesn't make any pushback at the debates or anything, there's a problem.

I think it's far more likely that the bounce has already receded (as we've seen in some polls conducted on Saturday/Sunday after the fact and the daily trackers reverting to the mean) and in a week or so the results will have normalized, but it's dangerous to just assume that will happen.

The fundamentals of the race still favor Obama, and Romney's poll numbers have been so bad hitherto that we'll have to wait before we can call it a game changer. The fact that the Democrats in the Senate contests haven't seen their numbers change much implies an underlying base of support that will benefit Obama. That being said, this obviously isn't a good thing and could have been avoided. All we can do is hope Biden makes a fool out of Ryan at their debate.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
Downhome said:
I fully admit that I am not supporting Obama for reelection, I'm not afraid to just put that out there. I am however someone who doesn't think it'll be the end of the world no matter who wins, and I don't think we're heading towards any sort of paradise with either guy as well. I believe that the race is up for grabs for either guy, depending solely upon on what happens all the way up to election day. I have never for a second thought either Obama or Romney has it locked, and the back and forth is fully expected by me. I'm not even that fond of Romney, and would have been happy with just about any other Republican candidate. Ok, now that that's out there, I have a serious question for those of you who fully support Obama...

For those of you who are not worried at all, that feel it is a lock for Obama right now, what would it take for you to really start to question things and start to think that Romney just may pull this off? What would it take for that worry to really set in for you guys? Would it be for Romney to lead in the polls for a full cycle? A major gaffe by Obama or Biden? A lot started to worry after that first debate. Heck, if some of you are there now, what got you to that point after being so sure of things before?

Serious question, not looking for a debate or argument. I'm just curious, that is all.
Click to expand...

Major sustained movement for Romney in most or all swing state polls.

Edit: By the way, that's how you post a dissenting opinion without getting dogpiled. Well done!
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Downhome said:
For those of you who are not worried at all, that feel it is a lock for Obama right now, what would it take for you to really start to question things and start to think that Romney just may pull this off? What would it take for that worry to really set in for you guys? Would it be for Romney to lead in the polls for a full cycle? A major gaffe by Obama or Biden? A lot started to worry after that first debate. Heck, if some of you are there now, what got you to that point after being so sure of things before?

Serious question, not looking for a debate or argument. I'm just curious, that is all.
Click to expand...

People not worrie are probably waiting for swing state polling to swing consistently.

I started worrying because I saw a few swig state polls get too close for comfort, and along with that the voter suppression efforts worry me. Close race with voter suppression is bad for Obama.
 
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