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[XenodudeX]

For those of you who are not worried at all, that feel it is a lock for Obama right now, what would it take for you to really start to question things and start to think that Romney just may pull this off?

- A complete and total meltdown of our economy

- Obama caught fucking a white women on camera

- A full scale war between Israel and Iran

Want to know what these three things have in common?

They're not going to happen.

Obama will win. The only question right now is how big of a win it will be.

 

[syllogism]

I fully admit that I am not supporting Obama for reelection, I'm not afraid to just put that out there. I am however someone who doesn't think it'll be the end of the world no matter who wins, and I don't think we're heading towards any sort of paradise with either guy as well. I believe that the race is up for grabs for either guy, depending solely upon on what happens all the way up to election day. I have never for a second thought either Obama or Romney has it locked, and the back and forth is fully expected by me. I'm not even that fond of Romney, and would have been happy with just about any other Republican candidate. Ok, now that that's out there, I have a serious question for those of you who fully support Obama...

For those of you who are not worried at all, that feel it is a lock for Obama right now, what would it take for you to really start to question things and start to think that Romney just may pull this off? What would it take for that worry to really set in for you guys? Would it be for Romney to lead in the polls for a full cycle? A major gaffe by Obama or Biden? A lot started to worry after that first debate. Heck, if some of you are there now, what got you to that point after being so sure of things before?

Serious question, not looking for a debate or argument. I'm just curious, that is all.

If in a week from now the state polls show Romney ahead or tied in the states that actually matter, then it might be time to start worrying

 

[Manmademan]

This thread will be amazing if Ryan beats Biden in the post debate snap polls tomorrow.

The debate is Thursday, not tomorrow

 

[cartoon_soldier]

I am more concerned that approaching a week after the debate, Obama campaign has done nothing to change the narrative or combat it.

 

[codhand]

what would it take for you to really start to question things and start to think that Romney just may pull this off?

People apologizing to PD...wait a minute....fuuck.

 

[pigeon]

That isn't an excuse

Yes it is? I mean, it's a move, but it's not a four point move.

Does Obama lead any nationally polls today?

RAND, by four.

We won't really have a clear picture of the race until saturday at the earliest. That will have taken most of the peak post-debate bounce out of the picture in the daily tracking polls, and we'll see what kind of real staying power Romney's bounce had.

As it stands, things are in flux to such a degree that we can't make concrete conclusions about the future of the race. Gallup and Ipsos changing to their likely voter models amidst this turmoil is just about the worst timing ever, but it's simply another very good reason to restrain overly pessimistic/optimistic views for a while.

So it'll be a long week, and it may turn out that we have reason to worry when we get there, but that time is not now.

No offense, but I just don't agree with any of this. Since when did we switch to saying the real story of the race is in daily tracking polls? That's exactly wrong -- they've always been iffy.

We said on the weekend that we'd need to see more polls to know what was likely. Now we have more polls, and frankly, they're all bad. Is Obama still the favorite? Certainly. Do all the polls have individual quirks and anomalies? They do, obviously, but there's an obvious problem with finding a defect with every single poll released on a certain day.

The safest assumption given the data is no longer that the debates didn't move the needle, or even that they didn't move the needle much, but that they pushed things back to near the pre-convention levels. That's still a good place for Obama. But let's not pretend that we just don't really know what the story is. We know, we're just hoping we're wrong.

 

[Fenderputty]

Consider this lurker "concerned". Anything great than 25% odds of a Romney presidency is ... cause for concern IMO.

Obama better come out swinging in the next debate.

 

[Aaron Strife]

This thread will be amazing if Ryan beats Biden in the post debate snap polls tomorrow.

That would be pretty amazing if Ryan had a lead since the debate's not until Thursday.

Wocka wocka!

 

[Averon]

For those of you who are not worried at all, that feel it is a lock for Obama right now, what would it take for you to really start to question things and start to think that Romney just may pull this off? What would it take for that worry to really set in for you guys? Would it be for Romney to lead in the polls for a full cycle? A major gaffe by Obama or Biden? A lot started to worry after that first debate. Heck, if some of you are there now, what got you to that point after being so sure of things before?

Serious question, not looking for a debate or argument. I'm just curious, that is all.

If polls show swings states like Ohio, Virginia, and Florida start trending towards Romney, and Romney maintains that trend, then I'll start getting worried.

 

[Downhome]

Consider this lurker "concerned". Anything great than 25% odds of a Romney presidency is ... cause for concern IMO.

Obama better come out swinging in the next debate.

Obama will likely win the next debate, he feels comfortable there and I can see it being a weak point for Romney. Their final debate will be the one that Obama should be worried about.

 

[XenodudeX]

But really all of this could have been avoided if Obama wasn't so fucking bad at the debate. Completely stupid move on his part.

 

[Tom_Cody]

Consider this lurker "concerned". Anything great than 25% odds of a Romney presidency is ... cause for concern IMO.

Obama better come out swinging in the next debate.

It's a town hall debate. Any attacks will have to be pivoted off of audience members questions.

 

[Tim-E]

I fully admit that I am not supporting Obama for reelection, I'm not afraid to just put that out there. I am however someone who doesn't think it'll be the end of the world no matter who wins, and I don't think we're heading towards any sort of paradise with either guy as well. I believe that the race is up for grabs for either guy, depending solely upon on what happens all the way up to election day. I have never for a second thought either Obama or Romney has it locked, and the back and forth is fully expected by me. I'm not even that fond of Romney, and would have been happy with just about any other Republican candidate. Ok, now that that's out there, I have a serious question for those of you who fully support Obama...

For those of you who are not worried at all, that feel it is a lock for Obama right now, what would it take for you to really start to question things and start to think that Romney just may pull this off? What would it take for that worry to really set in for you guys? Would it be for Romney to lead in the polls for a full cycle? A major gaffe by Obama or Biden? A lot started to worry after that first debate. Heck, if some of you are there now, what got you to that point after being so sure of things before?

Serious question, not looking for a debate or argument. I'm just curious, that is all.

It will take a dramatic and sustained swing in state polls from various pollsters that show that Obama's path to 270 is in Jeopardy. Obama can lose a lot of the swing states and still win. It'll take another week or so of polling for us to even get that.

 

[codhand]

.

Serious question for you, not looking for debate.

Romney???

 

[Cloudy]

Fox is puffing out their chest lol

 

[PhoenixDark]

This thread will be amazing if Ryan beats Biden in the post debate snap polls tomorrow.

He will. Biden is a liability, hence the campaign hiding him from the press so much recently. There is almost no way he gets through the debate without saying something ridiculous.

Ryan is pretty good at selling his bullshit in speeches, and he's a strong debater.

 

[HylianTom]

They're effin' nuts. PA, MN, NM, WI, NH.. all in Obama's pocket. Win VA or OH or FL, and it's over. I still have ice in my veins.

 

[Tim-E]

Fox is puffing out their chest lol

Pennsylvania? Minnesota? Wisconsin? New Mexico? LOL

 

[XenodudeX]

Fox is puffing out their chest lol

Obama losing PA, NM, NV, and NH?

 

[Loudninja]

Election Day be oh so delicious on Fox

 

[AniHawk]

He will. Biden is a liability, hence the campaign hiding him from the press so much recently. There is almost no way he gets through the debate without saying something ridiculous.

Ryan is pretty good at selling his bullshit in speeches, and he's a strong debater.

ryan's also a liability. ever since the convention, he's been pegged as a liar who lies. i think they're evenly matched as far as the expectation game goes.

 

[Averon]

Fox is puffing out their chest lol

What a joke. Obama's more likely to lose NV than NM. Given early voting, IA is likely not going red, either. PA and MN going red is very remote. Did they get Dick Morris to make this map?

 

[ezrarh]

God..this turn since the debates hasn't concerned me just yet but it has made me very annoyed at our electorate. People are fucking dumb.

And instead of pulling your hair out, I hope those in swing states are volunteering and working with the local campaign offices.

 

[Cheebo]

Romney is now officially ahead of Obama in the RCP polling average. First time the entire election.

 

[HylianTom]

Election Day be oh so delicious on Fox

I was just thinking about this. They actually have hope now, and seeing it crushed will be oh so rich.

 

[AniHawk]

Obama losing PA, NM, NV, and NH?

no, that's the funny part. they give him nv, but not nm.

 

[Plinko]

Sorry, but those of you saying "nothing's wrong everything is perfect you're all crazy" are just as bad as the chicken littles in this thread.

 

[Loudninja]

I was just thinking about this. They actually have hope now, and seeing it crushed will be oh so rich.

YES!

Sorry, but those of you saying "nothing's wrong everything is perfect you're all crazy" are just as bad as the chicken littles in this thread.

I am not going to sit around like some an cry about every poll that comes out.

 

[Aylinato]

Obama losing Minnesota is more disturbing lol

 

[reilo]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...e870c78-122e-11e2-ba83-a7a396e6b2a7_blog.html

It's becoming clear Obama had a lot of support based around the assumption that Romney was an unacceptable choice. That entire narrative has been thrown out the window with an assist from Obama, who didn't challenge him in the debate nor brought up the 47% comment.


And for Dax:

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/255721594268315648

DAT confirmation bias.

 

[HylianTom]

Sorry, but those of you saying "nothing's wrong everything is perfect you're all crazy" are just as bad as the chicken littles in this thread.

I don't think "nothing's wrong;" but I'm still seeing that Obama has several paths to 270, while Romney still needs to draw an inside straight. If any part of Romney's electoral path fails, he's done.

 

[Loudninja]

Obama losing Minnesota is more disturbing lol

Heh he is up 10 today in the latest PPP poll.

 

[DynamicG]

ryan's also a liability. ever since the convention, he's been pegged as a liar who lies. i think they're evenly matched as far as the expectation game goes.

In PDland only Team Obama has liabilities.

Sorry, but those of you saying "nothing's wrong everything is perfect you're all crazy" are just as bad as the chicken littles in this thread.

Who are you talking to? Many here are just waiting the data out. I agree that anyone who is using individual data points to forecast the election is foolish, but you are lumping lots of people into big groups. It'd be better if you addressed specific posters directly.

 

[AniHawk]

I don't think "nothing's wrong;" but I'm still seeing that Obama has several paths to 270, while Romney still needs to draw an inside straight. If any part of Romney's electoral path fails, he's done.

as long as obama holds wisconsin, new mexico, colorado, and nevada, the rest won't be an issue. it'd sure be nice though.

 

[Plinko]

I don't think "nothing's wrong;" but I'm still seeing that Obama has several paths to 270, while Romney still needs to draw an inside straight. If any part of Romney's electoral path fails, he's done.

That's true, but most on here act as if that's impossible. All it might take is two more poor debate performances by Obama.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Fox is puffing out their chest lol

Did PD get a job at Fox?

 

[Snake]

No offense, but I just don't agree with any of this. Since when did we switch to saying the real story of the race is in daily tracking polls? That's exactly wrong -- they've always been iffy.

We said on the weekend that we'd need to see more polls to know what was likely. Now we have more polls, and frankly, they're all bad. Is Obama still the favorite? Certainly. Do all the polls have individual quirks and anomalies? They do, obviously, but there's an obvious problem with finding a defect with every single poll released on a certain day.

My post was about daily tracking polls because that's what we're mostly reacting to today, namely gallup and ipsos showing a tied race after being +5 and +4 Obama yesterday, due to them debuting likely voter models.

Pew and PPP also showed a strong Romney bounce the other day, but once again what I said before holds true. Their polling period was the four days after the debate. If next week their results are the same, then it is a sign that we have a problem. But we won't know until we give a little while for things to settle. No one is denying a Romney bounce, but no one can concretely determine how long it will last at this point so there's no justification in making any far-reaching claims either way.

 

[reilo]

Did PD get a job at Fox?

So that's what Incognito has been up to. His greatest troll yet.

 

[Eidan]

In PDland only Team Obama has liabilities.

I have a hard time seeing Biden allow lies to slide like Obama did.

 

[Loudninja]

We get Nevada poll from PPP tomorrow.

 

[Tim-E]

Sorry, but those of you saying "nothing's wrong everything is perfect you're all crazy" are just as bad as the chicken littles in this thread.

No one is saying "everything is perfect," but it isn't worth getting worked up over a few day's worth of polls when we haven't seen whether this bump is sustainable. Obama has multiple paths to 270, while Romney's path is very narrow. This has been an awful week for the Obama campaign, but I'm not going to curl up in a ball and think that Romney has it in the bag after a few polls, despite Obama leading since the spring.

 

[DynamicG]

I think Biden /Ryan will be interesting more becuase they seem like an oil/water combiniation that will have lots of mis-communications and not argue in the same way. I don't think it will be a clear "winner" type situation. Then again, thinking of these things like sports teams that win and lose is dumb in the first place.

 

[teruterubozu]

LOL that map is like a GOP wet dream.

 

[Averon]

Sorry, but those of you saying "nothing's wrong everything is perfect you're all crazy" are just as bad as the chicken littles in this thread.

Me not panicking does not imply I think everything's going well. Obama clearly lost the debate and gave Romney a second wind. He should have done better. I'm not THAT worried because until swing state polling shows otherwise, Obama still have multiple ways to get to 270 EVs; Obama can afford to lose some swing states, while Romney needs to have a perfect night to eke out a win. Obviously if upcoming swing states polls shows a sustained Romney lead then I'll be worried. But until then I'm not going to freak out about Romney having a 2 or 3 point lead during a volatile polling period.

 

[TacticalFox88]

Jesus, ever since the debate you people have lost your grip on your sanity and reality.

 

[NullPointer]

LOL that map is like a GOP wet dream.

Looks more like a commie invasion to me. Just add an arrow to show where the Red China divisions swept over from the Mexican border.

 

[Loudninja]

Jesus, ever since the debate you people have lost your grip on your sanity and reality.

Agreed,hopefully it will be back to normal next week.

 

[The Librarian]

This thread will be amazing if Ryan beats Biden in the post debate snap polls tomorrow.

Thursday.

 

[Particle Physicist]

lol, it hasn't even been a week since the debate, don't you think your gloating is a bit premature PD?

 

[teruterubozu]

Agreed,hopefully it will be back to normal next week.

It will only grow and intensify - this place will be a torture chamber for the rest of the month. Stay at your own risk.