cartoon_soldier
Member
Republicans hold a registration advantage over Dems in CO.
Obama's big advantage in CO is that Latino population has boomed from 2008 to 2012. And female voters are 200k+ compared to Male voters.
PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
- Start date
- Status
Republicans hold a registration advantage over Dems in CO.
Obama's big advantage in CO is that Latino population has boomed from 2008 to 2012. And female voters are 200k+ compared to Male voters.
Most women love him too
just saying if he loses it, prospects are still high enough that he wins. i still maintain 332 evs for obama at the end of the day. florida and virginia will be the closest states, though.
obama's slight disadvantage is that even if he won all the states he won last time, he'd be down 6 evs due to population shifts.
cartoon_soldier
Member
But even then 2008 was 50/50 split between Male/Female.
Thing with CO is Obama has to win the independents by a healthy margin, if he does that he will win.
One good thing Dems have is they have registered more voters in September than Republicans (64k to 40k), but also Independent Voters increased by 50k.
ryutaro's mama
Member
I don't think Obama gives a single fuck if he wins with 300+ or with 271.
Winning is winning.
it'll be considerably harder if it's close. there will be backlash either way, but it'll be more pronounced the closer you get to 270.
PhoenixDark
Banned
How is that cherry picking? It's an agregete of the polls...
It shouldn't be that close given the voucher nonsense, yet it is; that's a problem. It's well within play
Silver thinks the debate will swing things do a degree, although the job numbers might deflate some of that momentum; we will see very soon. It seems like the 47% bump has faded, and Romney's favorable numbers are increasing. They might continue doing so after the second debate too, considering Obama will be the one on the attack. I really think he fucked the race up
cartoon_soldier
Member
Let's see polling wise...
VA/WI numbers from PPP Sunday. These will be very important to see where WI stands. I expect Marquette to go into the field again...but who knows.
Ras 3 day tracking will be completely after the debate on Sunday.
Gallup by Sunday should give us a good idea on whether Romney got a bump or not (similar to Obama's big numbers post DNC even with just 2 days in tracker)
I also have no fucking clue who voted for PPP to poll Minnesota...WTF.
But in any case, Sunday should give us a good idea on how the debate/UE numbers are playing.
Assuming NBC/WSJ will be in the field every week now...Nate considers them to be the gold standard of polling.
Also, I keep reading that there were many moments for Obama campaign to use in Ads against Romney. So, I better start seeing some shit!
VA/WI numbers from PPP Sunday. These will be very important to see where WI stands. I expect Marquette to go into the field again...but who knows.
Ras 3 day tracking will be completely after the debate on Sunday.
Gallup by Sunday should give us a good idea on whether Romney got a bump or not (similar to Obama's big numbers post DNC even with just 2 days in tracker)
I also have no fucking clue who voted for PPP to poll Minnesota...WTF.
But in any case, Sunday should give us a good idea on how the debate/UE numbers are playing.
Assuming NBC/WSJ will be in the field every week now...Nate considers them to be the gold standard of polling.
Also, I keep reading that there were many moments for Obama campaign to use in Ads against Romney. So, I better start seeing some shit!
ryutaro's mama
Member
I know, right?
He lost the first debate so he's done. It's all over...he fucked up the race...just like Bush in 2004 when Kerry crushed him in Round 1...oh wait.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Bad job numbers didn't hurt Obama much, I don't these help him in polls. What it helps with is a shifting narrative in the Media to the UE rate. Obama and his surrogates also need to do a FAR FAR better job at vividly painting the picture of what things where when he took office and what things are now.
Oh, and right wing is now getting behind the conspiracy that the numbers are cooked. So you got that.
Also, the more important number in the BLS report was that 800,000 more households reported as being employed compared to last month. But we only apparently care about what businesses report, not what households report.
Conspiracy theories.
I agree. With the second most important thing being the full implementation of the ACA. Once the principle of (near) universal coverage is established, we're not going back.
that's alot of wishful thinking. The debates so far have just reenergized the republican base and few undecideds.
ryutaro's mama
Member
In PD's world, the debates caused Obama supporters in high numbers to shift to Team Romney due to Obama's shitty debate performance.
It was that convincing an argument made by Romney!
It was that convincing an argument made by Romney!
They finally realized what a mistake it was not to choose Hilary in that moment.
Well if anything this has made obama and democratic supporters less complacent in thinking that the election was going to be handed to obama. This will keep voter turnout for obama very high imo, higher than if obama had dominated romney in the first debate.
Black Mamba
Member
PD has quickly become the Romney of poli-GAF.
Talks out of his ass, loosely uses statistics, and flops around just to fit his narrative, completely ignores when his bullshit is pointed out, both grasping at straws hoping for a miracle.
Might as well just call him Phoenix Romney at this point.
Talks out of his ass, loosely uses statistics, and flops around just to fit his narrative, completely ignores when his bullshit is pointed out, both grasping at straws hoping for a miracle.
Might as well just call him Phoenix Romney at this point.
Yeah, Obama fucked up.538 said:
If his advisers were indeed telling him to intentionally botch the debate so he could "study" Mitt that was the dumbest fucking thing in the world.
You should work for them, because their latest strategy in a debate is the hammer away nothing and act like a student in class with an angry teacher.ryutura's mama said:
I'm starting to wonder, even if Obama comes prepared next time, if it has more to do with Romney just being that formidable to go up against on stage. Obama looked almost scared of him. Also I don't know if it's valid to compare this to Kerry/Bush. 2004 was all about terrorism/war and people were really scared so they held on to daddy. Plus you had evangelicals trolling the electorate. It was a different dynamic.
When Nate says it's time to start betting on Romney that's nothing to scoff at. This guy does not fuck around at all.
Officerrob
Banned
When Nate is saying "He would bet on Romney", he's talking about him getting a bigger bump than his model is currently showing, not betting on him to win the election. You completely missed what he was saying there
do people get that he's doing a thing? i always thought it was really obvious phoenix dark was doing a thing.
ryutaro's mama
Member
That's not at all what he said but go right ahead and tell yourself that's what he said.
Also:
Like I said earlier, Obama sees this shit like basketball. "Making adjustments" is terminology a player or coach makes to the media after losing a game in the series.
Obama lost Game 1 but it's a 3 game series.
My prediction: Obama in 3.
Black Mamba
Member
Yeah, we do. But for a while it was at least rooted in truth or real analysis.
Now it's all "POLLS TIGHTENING" when 2 of the 4 polls actually showed Obama gaining ground, 1 doing nothing, and the other is highly volatile and showed no bump for Romney,
It's starting to get annoying, honestly. Once in a while fine, but every other post.
Meanwhile, I just discovered this site and lol: http://www.roboromney.com/
Regardless of Obama's debate performance, I just don't see any path for Romney to win. What's more upsetting to me about it is that by allowing the Romney campaign to regain some momentum and energizing the GOP base the debate may cost the Dem's several downticket congressional seats that Obama is going to need to effectively govern. That's the real reason why Obama and Biden need to deliver knockouts in the remaining debates.
Black Mamba
Member
So much this.
I want the GOP base to be dejected and stay home for those key senate and house seats. I want Bachman, West, etc out of there.
BotoxAgent
Member
Dude, you need to calm down. Obama dun goof at the debate for sure. But I think you should stop reading politics if it gets you this frustrated. Not good for you. Get some sleep
ryutaro's mama
Member
Joe Biden is gonna be so free on Thursday.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Yeah, I think Obama's campaign is going to let him go nuts. And there's a lot more specifics in Ryan's plan they can attack than Romney, considering Romney's the pathological liar/flip-flopper so he can change his positions on a whim ("Who said I was cutting taxes for anybody, I didn't say that!"). Ryan's the "serious conservative," he's going to have less leeway with that.
Also dude get some sleep
Officerrob
Banned
I'm interested in seeing Biden in a real one on one debate. I've only seen him in early democrat presidential debates with like 10 people on stage, and the debate last time where he had to handle Palin with kid gloves.
I get like this every election. I just want this month to end. I cannot stand it. I hate Mitt Romney, I fucking hate him. It's one thing to pander, even the Pres has done that, they all do. But this dude is a shell that said whatever he had to in the primary to win it, then all of the sudden he shrugs it off and makes an instant shift to the center. He's like two different people.Dude, you need to calm down. Obama dun goof at the debate for sure. But I think you should stop reading politics if it gets you this frustrated. Not good for you. Get some sleep
I see what Silver was saying now. My eyes practically bloodshot right now, sorry for that.
I know I'm being a bit angry in regards to his performance, but I have never been so disappointed in Obama before. You just... there's so much on the line here, you don't fuck around at a debate like that, I don't care what your intent is and how clever you may be.
And really the more I think about it, especially given how Obama was right back on track the very next day, he intentionally downplayed his willingness to be there. I think he was trying to study the real Mitt because they had a hunch he was going to abandon all the primary bullshit to make a power grab for swing voters. I get it, but it was still way too nuanced.
I'll take you guys at your word that you truly feel without any bias or cheerleading in your estimations that Romney will not be making any epic huge gains in upcoming polls. I'm still gonna hold my breath.
Thank you,I didn't make it though
No matter what happens that will be the one to watch.
These two things are the main reasons I tell everyone that they need to suck it up and vote for Obama.
We can't have another conservative justice on the court. We can't undo our steps towards UHC.
I live for laughter and other laugh-related matters.
I chose you because you're the most inoffensive, well-liked regular. I don't recall anyone ever disparaging you.
I would only partially impute Venezuela's diminished influence to Obama's policies. The reversal of Bush's policies has helped, sure. As I've noted previously, Obama's prudently expanded our engagement with Brazil. For decades Colombia and, to a lesser extent, Chile have been the pillars of American power in the region. But Obama's shifted attention to Brazil while encouraging them to assert their regional leadership. So Brazil's emerged as the obvious regional power. And its influence is considerable. Brazil's provided an example of competent governance for the region, and its balance between social welfare and market liberalism is a superior approach for growth. It's been a productive member of the international community. America benefits from a strong Brazil. The region is more stable.
But Venezuela's influence, and the notion of an ideological competition, was always a bit spurious. Venezuela's attracted a few peripheral states with its oil-fueled largess. But as its fortunes have waned, so has its influence. It never approached Brazil's potential. And that's why Santorum's warning during one of the debates of a growing Venezuelan menace was risible.
I presume your prediction is predicated on some fatuous analysis regarding Warren being too professorial or shrill. Although, in a rare moment of insight, your doubt is warranted. Warren has a few advantages that might prove insurmountable. Primarily, like Obama, she enjoys an organizational advantage. The Democrats possess a large network of field offices. And this has enabled Warren's campaign to conduct an extensive canvassing effort. So the advantage will only appreciate over the next month. Brown's in a tough position.
it's weird. i've never disliked the guy. at least not to the extent that i disliked mccain for walking back on what i thought were his values, or george bush for being a massive fuckup (or cheney for being gelatinous evil). he just comes off as a guy who really really really wants to be liked, and will do whatever he can to please whoever.
i think if he was elected and people were loud enough about a specific issue, he'd bend on it pretty easily. the only thing i'd really be worried about is paul ryan's affect on his administration.
it helps that this election isn't quite so much PATRIOTIC AMERICAN MAN vs. BROWN TERRORIST MAYBE? now that obama's been president for almost four years.
Dude, Obama wasn't being "clever" or fucking around. He was playing an incredibly safe, keep away, style.
There was literally zero knowledge about what style or tactics Romney would take in the one on one debates. He never had any one on one debates in his primaries. They also knew he would try to etch-a-sketch his way through the whole deal. At the same time the GOP base is still too large to just topple over with blunt refutations.
Obama's main goal was to just avoid. Avoid seeming too hostile or dismissive, avoid seeming too professorial, avoid giving any kind of rallying point, red meat, or ad fodder to the GOP. That isn't the strategy that can ever "win" a debate, but it can help you win the weeks following a debate.
Hence why we now see a bunch of new ads being rolled out by the Obama campaign based around Romney's flip flops in the debate and Obama stumping with the Big Bird line every day now.
Dude Abides
Banned
Good. Flip flopping phony is Romney's huge vulnerability. There needs to be a concerted effort to make him a figure of ridicule on that like was done to Gore and Kerry.
The Librarian
Banned
No it won't. Stop it. Debates have never historically mattered except maybe in Kennedy/Nixon. Stop trying to give them significance that they've never had.
...
Anybody watching Stewart/O'Reilly tonight?
SpeedySwaf
Member
While I'm curious to see how the polls will react in the next few days, I do want to remind everyone (as a lot of others have) that not every freakout we have is warranted. As another example, I remember everyone thinking that the poor job numbers from two months ago would kill any momentum from the DNC, but that never panned out.
Chris Hayes is awesome. His discussion on Romney's tax plan with Stiglitz and a Romney advisor is pretty great. I'd love to see him go toe to toe with Romney himself. He seems like he's really great on his feet, and he comes up with some really great points.
Definitely. That's going to be a fun watch.
Definitely. That's going to be a fun watch.
Wolfgunblood Garopa
Member
He also pointed out that no candidate in history has ever been behind in the polls at the start of the debates, then due to a spectacular debate performance went on to win the election.
Looks like we have our first national poll with Romney in the lead:
http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/polls/507031c1ebcabf6a3e000015
They had Obama up by 5 on tuesday.
Someone don't let Diablos see, he'll have a heart attack.
http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/polls/507031c1ebcabf6a3e000015
They had Obama up by 5 on tuesday.
Someone don't let Diablos see, he'll have a heart attack.
I was watching that, but my daughter is far more entertained by Mickey Mouse Clubhouse, and she wins everytime.
- Status