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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house

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W

whyamihere

Banned
http://www.gallup.com/poll/214349/t...utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=organicsocial

Here's every state. It's approve/disapprove/don't know. I will italicize if the sample is under 400.

Above water:
West Virginia: 60/35/5
North Dakota: 59/36/6
South Dakota: 57/43/1
Montana: 56/41/3
Wyoming: 56/36/8
Alabama: 55/49/6
Oklahoma: 54/39/6
Kansas: 53/42/6
Kentucky: 53/43/4
Arkansas: 53/40/6
Idaho: 53/42/4
Nebraska: 52/43/5
Tennessee: 52/43/5
Louisiana: 51/43/6
Alaska: 51/44/5
South Carolina: 50/44/6
Utah: 50/45/5
Missouri: 49/46/4
Mississippi: 48/46/5

Under water:
Ohio: 47/48/5
Indiana: 47/48/5
New Hampshire: 45/51/4
Iowa: 45/49/6
Nevada: 44/50/6
Pennsylvania: 43/52/5
Wisconsin: 43/52/5
Georgia: 43/50/6
Arizona: 43/52/5
Maine: 42/56/2
Michigan: 42/52/6
North Carolina: 42/53/6
Florida: 42/51/6
Texas: 42/51/8
Minnesota: 39/57/4
Virginia: 39/56/6
Delaware: 38/56/5
Colorado: 38/57/5
Oregon: 38/57/5
Rhode Island: 37/55/9
New Mexico: 37/56/7
New Jersey: 36/58/5
Illinois: 36/58/6
Washington: 36/59/5
Hawaii: 35/54/11
Connecticut: 34/59/6
New York: 31/62/7
Maryland: 30/64/5
California: 30/63/6
Massachusetts: 29/66/6
Vermont: 26/71/3
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
whyamihere said:
Senate Democrats are rolling their 2018 manifesto and cable is covering commentary of Kushner's statement.

It's a perfect microcosm.
Click to expand...

It's one idea they already were for (lower drug prices), one good idea (breaking up big businesses), and one stupid idea that they also were already for (tax incentives for businesses to train workers more?).

It's not that interesting and Schumer isn't that interesting at delivering ideas...
 
A

aspiegamer

Member
Nazgul_Hunter said:
It's so stupid. They used a piece of software called Bleach Bit to clear hard drives, a very standard infosec procedure. This has somehow turned into Hillary cackling while she pours acid down her email server.
Click to expand...
Given Trump has never sent a single email in his life, it's not at all shocking that he has no idea how any of this works.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Plinko said:
Oh, it averages the polls all the way back to January? Why? What is even the point?
Click to expand...

I'm dubious, but I think in terms of getting the national mood? But again, it's the average, not a poll at any given time. But is it weighted over time? Like if you happened to get a ton of people in Missouri at first, but didn't get a ton near today, how do you average that? Very odd.
 
O

Ogodei

Member
I don't see a lot of energy surrounding this race here in Virginia. Saw more energy around the primary in the months leading up to it than i've seen in the weeks afterwards. The candidates with a lot of energy around them both lost and so you've sort of got a dry toast vs saltine crackers election happening.

The stakes are hard to identify for Democrats, too, which is never good for our side (that the only reason VA didn't go the way of North Carolina in the last four years was because of McAuliffe blocking all the shit that poured out of the State House).

But the mood is wrong for moderate R's to win here, given broad approval of McAuliffe and strong disapproval of Trump. Corey Stuart could've at least rallied the parts of Virginia that are being left behind as NoVA continues its takeover of the state.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Anyways, what's interesting to me is that according to that Gallup poll, Trump is under water in every state that Obama won in 2008 + Texas, Arizona, and Georgia. Since a lot of states move together, this makes sense to me.

What I'd be worried about if I were Trump is that Obama won those states only after a huge financial meltdown and economic downturn. Nothing has really happened thus far on that level. Everything's been self-inflicted.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
whyamihere said:
Anyways, what's interesting to me is that according to that Gallup poll, Trump is under water in every state that Obama won in 2008 + Texas, Arizona, and Georgia. Since a lot of states move together, this makes sense to me.

What I'd be worried about if I were Trump is that Obama won those states only after a huge financial meltdown and economic downturn. Nothing has really happened thus far on that level. Everything's been self-inflicted.
Click to expand...
If we run a candidate in 2020 with even just 50% favorability by Election Day we probably win. Trump is so terrible he's fucking up his honeymoon period.

A new GOP president with -9 approval in Texas in six months. Unbelievable.
 
A

Autodidact

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
If we run a candidate in 2020 with even just 50% favorability by Election Day we probably win. Trump is so terrible he's fucking up his honeymoon period.

A new GOP president with -9 approval in Texas in six months. Unbelievable.
Click to expand...

Texans be like, "Yee-NAW."

BoogieWoogie said:
West Virginia, the state that would be the most affected by cuts to Medicare and Health Care services, loves Trump the most. Go fucking figure.
Click to expand...

I guess they think they can at least keep their pride if a white man cuts their benefits.
 
R

ratcliffja

Member
BoogieWoogie said:
West Virginia, the state that would be the most affected by cuts to Medicare and Health Care services, loves Trump the most. Go fucking figure.
Click to expand...

That's why I wouldn't be 100% opposed to the state-decided plan at least in the short term. Maybe certain states could wake up to the the realities of GOP health care or lack thereof.
 
E

Ernest

Banned
Is it a reach to say that Republicans are lazier than Democrats?

days-residence-poll.jpg
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
WOW.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/07/...ws&_r=0&referer=https://t.co/jgRsmKPrBi?amp=1

WARSAW — Following tumultuous protests, and warnings from the European Union, Poland’s president vetoed two proposed laws on Monday that would have given the right-wing governing party direct control of the judiciary.

Poles denouncing the laws as a retreat from democratic norms had taken to the streets by the tens of thousands, and the European Union, which Poland joined in 2004, had warned Warsaw that adopting the laws — which the bloc’s officials called a threat to judicial independence and the rule of law — could result in legal sanctions.

Nonetheless, the decision by the president, Andrzej Duda, was unexpected. He was elected in May 2015 as the handpicked candidate of the right-wing Law and Justice Party, which won parliamentary elections later that year, and until now has been a steadfast ally of the government, though there have been rumors of a rift between Mr. Duda and the party’s leader, Jaroslaw Kaczynski.

“I feel that the reform in this shape will not increase the sense of security and justice,” Mr. Duda said at a news conference before meetings with leaders of the Supreme Court and the National Council of the Judiciary.

The two proposed laws he vetoed — one that would have forced the resignation of all Supreme Court justices, with their replacements to be selected by the justice minister, and another that would have given government-appointed members effective veto power in the council, which selects judicial candidates — will be sent back to Parliament. Mr. Duda urged lawmakers to rewrite them within two months.

Parliament has the power to override the vetoes, but doing so would require the agreement of 60 percent of lawmakers — a threshold that the governing Law and Justice Party, which has only a thin majority, could not meet without support from other parties.

Later in the morning, Mr. Duda said that he would sign a third bill, which reorganizes Poland’s local judiciary, giving the justice minister the power to select the heads of the local courts and — in certain cases — even to direct judges to particular cases.
Click to expand...

YAY!!!!
 
C

chadskin

Member
Because the question came up earlier: this week's theme is American Heroes, followed by American Dreams next week.

Unless Mooch scrapped 'em.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_VA_072417/

Currently, 44% of likely voters support Republican Ed Gillespie and 44% support Democrat Ralph Northam. Libertarian candidate Cliff Hyra gets 3% of the vote and 9% are undecided. Gillespie has 91% support among his fellow Republicans and Northam has 88% support among his fellow Democrats. Independents prefer the GOP nominee by a narrow 42% to 38% margin.
Click to expand...

yeesh, what the hell are Dems doing.
 
F

Futurevoid

Member
N

NihonTiger90

Member
whyamihere said:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/214349/t...utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=organicsocial

Here's every state. It's approve/disapprove/don't know. I will italicize if the sample is under 400.

Above water:
West Virginia: 60/35/5
North Dakota: 59/36/6
South Dakota: 57/43/1
Montana: 56/41/3
Wyoming: 56/36/8
Alabama: 55/49/6
Oklahoma: 54/39/6
Kansas: 53/42/6
Kentucky: 53/43/4
Arkansas: 53/40/6
Idaho: 53/42/4
Nebraska: 52/43/5
Tennessee: 52/43/5
Louisiana: 51/43/6
Alaska: 51/44/5
South Carolina: 50/44/6
Utah: 50/45/5
Missouri: 49/46/4
Mississippi: 48/46/5

Under water:
Ohio: 47/48/5
Indiana: 47/48/5
New Hampshire: 45/51/4
Iowa: 45/49/6
Nevada: 44/50/6
Pennsylvania: 43/52/5
Wisconsin: 43/52/5
Georgia: 43/50/6
Arizona: 43/52/5
Maine: 42/56/2
Michigan: 42/52/6
North Carolina: 42/53/6
Florida: 42/51/6
Texas: 42/51/8
Minnesota: 39/57/4
Virginia: 39/56/6
Delaware: 38/56/5
Colorado: 38/57/5
Oregon: 38/57/5
Rhode Island: 37/55/9
New Mexico: 37/56/7
New Jersey: 36/58/5
Illinois: 36/58/6
Washington: 36/59/5
Hawaii: 35/54/11
Connecticut: 34/59/6
New York: 31/62/7
Maryland: 30/64/5
California: 30/63/6
Massachusetts: 29/66/6
Vermont: 26/71/3
Click to expand...

What's so interesting about this to me is, that if you look at MoE (+/-4) and the people reporting as undecideds in some of these states, there's already a fairly sizable chunk of the "Above Water" states that could start dropping to "Under Water," or getting uncomfortably close.

And it's not necessarily the swing states we're talking about here: Louisiana, South Carolina, Missouri, Utah? Any other GOP president would be up 20+ points in those states.

(Also, the Alabama number for disapproval has to be wrong. That adds up to more than 100 percent)
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
lol.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/latest-trump-gop-health-care-push-chance-48814902

A Texas Republican congressman says it's "absolutely repugnant" that the GOP-led Senate hasn't acted on repealing the health care law and he singled out "some female senators from the Northeast."

In a radio interview with "1440 Keys," Rep. Blake Farenthold said the Senate has failed to show the courage to dismantle the health care law. The Senate is expected to vote Tuesday on whether to move ahead on legislation.

Farenthold complained about some female lawmakers and said, "If it was a guy from south Texas, I might ask him to step outside and settle this Aaron Burr-style."

Maine Sen. Susan Collins has been consistent in opposing the GOP replacement to Obamacare. Other female senators who have expressed reservations are Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska.
Click to expand...
 
O

Ogodei

Member
Snowman Prophet of Doom said:
How low have we sunk that I find myself wishing that Giuliani replaces Sessions, because as bad as Giuliani is, he's not Sessions?
Click to expand...

Giuliani doesn't entertain Lost Cause fantasies, so he certainly has that going for him, although you'd trade "extra aggressive towards black Americans" to "extra aggressive towards Muslim Americans."
 
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