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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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turnbuckle

turnbuckle

Member
ToxicAdam said:
Using my second to last post to bid you all adieu. Thanks for the laughs, the information and the spirited debates. I can honestly say that I have learned quite a bit in my time here which is always a good thing when present yourself as a know-it-all. I will definitely miss all the quality posters that occasionally post in this thread and will most likely still lurk to some degree during huge events.

But 35,000 posts and 8 years is enough for me (and enough OF me). See ya around the internet.
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But if you're still going to be on the internet, why not continue to contribute towards a community that you've admitted to being enriching and entertaining? It's like breaking up with a beautiful and intelligent woman that you love because you want something new. It's like a mid-life crisis.

I don't post in poligaf nearly enough, but I read it plenty. Over the time you've been a member you've become one of my favorite posters. Anywho, no use pleading for someone to do something they've decided against, but you're gonna be missed man. Best of luck to ya
 
D

demon

I don't mean to alarm you but you have dogs on your face
GhaleonEB said:
Leaving a community you are a part of because you reach some arbitrary post number is honestly quite strange. I hope all is well. Take care.
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Maybe hitting such a big round number just made him re-evaluate his priorities. Just lurking this shit is time-consuming; posting all the time must be a second job. Quitting right before the fuckin election is weird though....
 
M

Miletius

Member
Brinbe said:
That front-page Politco piece concerning the angst on the left is f'n hilarious. It's like peering into this thread over the past week. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82226.html


Just picked out some of my fav parts. Some of the reactions, like Sullivan's, are just embarrassingly pathetic. And it really does more to hurt things than help.

Anyway, that last quote I bolded p. much summed up my feelings on it too. If you're worried, then there are tons of outlets out there to volunteer (https://my.barackobama.com/page/s/become-a-volunteer) and help out, no matter what state you're in. And if that's just not possible, then donate/donate/donate. Better to turn those scary feelings into something constructive, and if Bams does lose, well, at least YOU can say you went down trying.
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The overreaction is amazing I'll give you that. Even the usually timid Republicans in the comments section of 538 are now coming out of the woodwork to say "I told ya so" and "Romney is a landslide, lol, pollz smolls." My brain hurts reading those posts.

See ya TA. Probably one of the posters I respect the most here, even when you disagreed with GAF you always did in a thoughtful manner.
 
E

Effect

Member
The good thing about the Dem panic is that it can not go unnoticed by the Obama campaign. Its so crazy that they have to be concerned that it could hurt not people going to Romney but not coming out to vote. Perhaps the kick in the ass they needed.
 
L

LosDaddie

Banned
Baraka in the White House said:
I'm not pulling a Diablos here but on the other hand one's gotta wonder who all these people are who watched that debate and went, " Well by GAWD, Romney's right!".
Click to expand...

How much conservative media do you consume? Do you listen to the nutjobs on AM radio when they have a "liberal" callers on the show? Have you seen how "liberals" are treated on Fox News' shows like The Five, Hannity, and OReilly?

The people who came away impressed with Mitt in Debate #1 are people who love conservative media. Mitt acted like the conservative pundits do on their shows; cutting off /interupting Obama (and the moderator), and generally being the loudest guy in the room.

But also, Americans like their politicians to be forceful, even if what they're saying is a lie.
 
A

aronnov reborn

Banned
LosDaddie said:
How much conservative media do you consume? Do you listen to the nutjobs on AM radio when they have a "liberal" callers on the show? Have you seen how "liberals" are treated on Fox News' shows like The Five, Hannity, and OReilly?

The people who came away impressed with Mitt in Debate #1 are people who love conservative media. Mitt acted like the conservative pundits do on their shows; cutting off /interupting Obama (and the moderator), and generally being the loudest guy in the room.

But also, Americans like their politicians to be forceful, even if what they're saying is a lie.
Click to expand...

how'd obama get 4 more minutes of talk time then mitt? I guess mitt should have interrupted more?
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Effect said:
The good thing about the Dem panic is that it can not go unnoticed by the Obama campaign. Its so crazy that they have to be concerned that it could hurt not people going to Romney but not coming out to vote. Perhaps the kick in the ass they needed.
Click to expand...

Well they haven't shown anything that says they are waking up. Apart from the Big Bird ad...
 
I

Incognito

Troll
http://thepage.time.com/2012/10/09/...mpaign-officials-at-the-chicago-headquarters/

big bird

HALPERIN: Yeah, and the President’s best sound bites over the past two days have been about the debate.

OBAMA ADVISER 1: Well, because, it’s not likely that Mitt Romney is going to stop being dishonest in the next debate. I would bet my life he’s not. And, so, we’re not going to let up on it. It has nothing to do with the debate. It’s also talking about what he’s saying on the stump. And, that’s not inconsistent with what the President’s been doing all along. Holding Mitt Romney accountable for the positions he’s taking, regardless of what he’s saying, what he wants you to believe. Now, we did a pretty big push on his foreign policy speech yesterday. Had nothing to do with the debate but we put a lot of blood, sweat, and tears in that one and, you know, I think it’s reflected in some of the stories. So, the Sesame Street ad is really just a parody. It is one of the biggest take aways of that debate for Americans who don’t care about politics. That is one of the few things that broke through. So it’s just a parody of that. It’s mostly going to be run on comedy channels.

OBAMA ADVISER 2: It’s not going to run in battleground states.

OBAMA ADVISER 1: We’re not putting it into our rotation.

OBAMA ADVISER 2: And here’s the other thing. It’s important at some point to have a little levity here. And to say to people on comedy channels, “hey, this is fun.” This is, like…

OBAMA ADVISER 1: Or, “can you believe this guy?”

OBAMA ADVISER 2: Right. That debate was parody-able.

OBAMA ADVISER 3: Bold leadership.

HALPERIN: And you say it’s broken through, how do you know that?

OBAMA ADVISER 2: Have you seen the viral stuff all over the Internet? Have you searched Funny or Die and how many views that’s gotten? Have you seen how many kids have signed that petition?
Click to expand...

battleground states

HALPERIN: I know you’re not going to talk about your research in any great detail but is the public polling that shows the battleground states tighter accurate? Inaccurate?

OBAMA ADVISER 2: We are not seeing a dramatic shift. We are seeing what we always thought, which is a small consolidation with him, but we continue to lead in every battleground state. We continue to, our map is continuing to be where it is.

HALPERIN: So, that means that in the eight states we’re talking about, nine if you include Wisconsin, that you think you are ahead or even in every one today?

OBAMA ADVISER 2: Mhmm. Yeah.

HALPERIN: So, to the extent the debate had an impact on those nine states, what was it? How would you qualify it or quantify it?

OBAMA ADVISER 2: Well, first of all, ..I think it’s too, it’s becoming about time to look or a little soon to figure out what’s noise and what’s not. But, you know, … there’s just not a lot of movement out there. This race is pretty stagnant.

HALPERIN: So, the conventional wisdom is, driven partly by the national polls and some state polls, that the debate had a transformative effect on the President’s and Governor Romney’s standing nationally and in the battleground states is incorrect?

OBAMA ADVISER 2: Correct, we do not believe that at all. And, you know, if you want to believe a Pew poll that shows us tied with women voters and having party ID move ten points in a month, which would be 20 million people, I think that you should…

OBAMA ADVISER 1: 20 million people decided they were Republicans in the last month.

OBAMA ADVISER 2: Right, it’s just not, you know, it’s just not…

OBAMA ADVISER 1: And we’re going to see more of these polls coming out to show tightening of the race and that’s just, that’s how it goes. And, you know, just like we got a bounce coming out of the convention, we knew that bounce wasn’t real and wasn’t going to be sustainable. This isn’t going to be sustainable either.
Click to expand...

early voting

HALPERIN: I want to come back to the Electoral College in a second, but just to finish up on the ground. So, you think, in all nine states, your ground game is superior and will count for a point or two?

OBAMA ADVISER 2: I think it depends on where. A point in Florida is a big point, as you know. A point or two -- [Harry] Reid added two in Nevada, and that was the off year when they had a small organization. I think what is true is we are superior on the ground in every battleground state, no question about it… I bet my life on that. No question. And I think we have the ability to do two things: both persuade the undecideds and turn out our vote. And that’s something, I don’t think they can do both. At their level you can just pick one, right? And I think that’s a problem for them and I think that’s what we’re doing every single day. The TV is so monolithic, I think people are throwing their TV out eventually, and they’re going to look at their friends and family and say, what do I do in this election? And that’s where the Neighborhood Team Model matters. And, you know, you shouldn’t believe my B.S. or Matt’s [Rhoades]. In the end, look at the numbers. And voter registration numbers in these states have moved dramatically. Our early vote, you look at Iowa, you know, everyone’s reported on it. We have a, not small, mammoth lead. We continue to have a lead in Ohio and, very important, you know, we lost early vote in Florida by 300,000 in ’08. We’re down now 80,000 as of this morning. We continue to close that. We are going to get to parity in the amount of Democrats versus Republicans in Colorado for the first time since 1992. That is a big chunk of business. So, our ground metrics are good. Do I think these states are going to be close? Absolutely, and that’s what we’re preparing for and that point or two you talked about is going to be the difference.

HALPERIN: Back of the envelope, what does the court decision in Ohio mean, in terms of an edge for you?

OBAMA ADVISER 2: It is a fact over 100,000 Democrats used those three days last time to participate in the process.

HALPERIN: A net advantage or total?

OBAMA ADVISER 2: Net advantage. And so, we ended up winning by 240,000 last time. That’s a big net advantage.
Click to expand...
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
New Ras numbers:
Iowa: 49-47, O
Colorado: 49-48, O
New Mexico: 54-43, O
Nevada: 47-47
Connecticut: 51-45, O
(conducted on Oct 7 & 8th)
 
T

thefro

Member
smurfx said:
well he sure as hell didn't have it in the first debate. not to mention letting mitt romney back into the race could possibly make some democrats lose their seats.
Click to expand...

Obama guaranteed that the hand-wringing was going to be over by this time next week after the VP & 2nd Presidential Debate and that one of his big problems was being "too polite" in the first debate. So I'm feeling pretty good.
 
E

Effect

Member
Zabka said:
Obama doesn't need to just call Mitt out. He needs to talk himself up more.
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Both. When Romney lies he has to call him on it and talk up himself. That was the biggest problem with the last debate. Allowing Romney to lie his ass off. Even if Romney continues to do it he needs to create enough doubt. Enough so that when the post-debate analyst starts pundits have no choice but to address it. It's not about the debate but shaping the narrative as soon as it's over. That includes having Obama's people sending information to pundits after every answer.
 
F

Frank the Great

Banned
HylianTom said:
http://rnbphilly.com/2377688/tjms-p...ut-the-debate-and-importance-of-voting-audio/

Haha!
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haha it is awesome that he knows about gifs like that.

HylianTom said:
New Ras numbers:
Iowa: 49-47, O
Colorado: 49-48, O
New Mexico: 54-43, O
Nevada: 47-47
Connecticut: 51-45, O
(conducted on Oct 7 & 8th)
Click to expand...

tight polls, but not a lot of undecideds left. was always going to be like this. i still don't see how rmoney breaks that 47/48 ceiling in states like iowa and colorado, especially when this is the height of the rmoney campaign and the superior obama ground game is thought to be worth at least an extra percentage point of votes.
 
A

adamsappel

Member
ToxicAdam said:
Using my second to last post to bid you all adieu. Thanks for the laughs, the information and the spirited debates. I can honestly say that I have learned quite a bit in my time here which is always a good thing when present yourself as a know-it-all. I will definitely miss all the quality posters that occasionally post in this thread and will most likely still lurk to some degree during huge events.

But 35,000 posts and 8 years is enough for me (and enough OF me). See ya around the internet.
Click to expand...

KeCpE.gif









Just kidding, man, you'll be missed.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Frank the Great said:
haha it is awesome that he knows about gifs like that.
Click to expand...
There was a story earlier where they showed Obama "Everyone chill the fuck out..I got this" gif, and he said "Exactly!".


tight polls, but not a lot of undecideds left. was always going to be like this. i still don't see how rmoney breaks that 47/48 ceiling in states like iowa and colorado, especially when this is the height of the rmoney campaign and the superior obama ground game is thought to be worth at least an extra percentage point of votes.
Click to expand...
Keep in mind that this is Rasmussen/lolmussen. They lean heavy R, and have very rarely shown Obama lead nationally.
 
A

aronnov reborn

Banned
HylianTom said:
New Ras numbers:
Iowa: 49-47, O
Colorado: 49-48, O
New Mexico: 54-43, O
Nevada: 47-47
Connecticut: 51-45, O
(conducted on Oct 7 & 8th)
Click to expand...

I'm surprised they have Missouri as a toss up? i thought that always went red? and if Romney could get any state in the North East that would have to be considered a huge win. Connecticut or NH.. which he is somehow up by 3 points in..
 
L

Loudninja

Member
Obama On Debate: 'I Was Just Too Polite'
Well, two things. I mean, you know, the debate, I think it’s fair to say I was just too polite, because, you know, it’s hard to sometimes just keep on saying and what you’re saying isn’t true. It gets repetitive. But, you know, the good news is, is that’s just the first one. Governor Romney put forward a whole bunch of stuff that either involved him running away from positions that he had taken, or doubling down on things like Medicare vouchers that are going to hurt him long term.
…And, you know, I think it’s fair to say that we will see a little more activity at the next one.
Click to expand...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/10/obama-debate-polite_n_1954559.html?1349882803
 
P

pigeon

Banned
I don't understand how we can all agree that Rasmussen's numbers are biased, not in a specific manner, but arbitrarily from day to day (which makes them entirely worthless) and yet still link to them. I don't even consider them a daily tracker now that I see that Sam Wang doesn't either.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
pigeon said:
I don't understand how we can all agree that Rasmussen's numbers are biased, not in a specific manner, but arbitrarily from day to day (which makes them entirely worthless) and yet still link to them. I don't even consider them a daily tracker now that I see that Sam Wang doesn't either.
Click to expand...

You know a Poll is bunk when it shows CT or NJ in play.
 
L

Loudninja

Member
pigeon said:
I don't understand how we can all agree that Rasmussen's numbers are biased, not in a specific manner, but arbitrarily from day to day (which makes them entirely worthless) and yet still link to them. I don't even consider them a daily tracker now that I see that Sam Wang doesn't either.
Click to expand...
I agree.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Downhome said:
If Obama loses, I wonder how he'll be remembered - as a bumbling Carter or Ford or a Reagan or Clinton who just happened to not get a second shot. It will be interesting to see if his own side instantly jumps ship and starts attacks of their own or if they stick with him through the years.
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"Only losers lose"

I think he'll be remembered as someone who hurt the democratic party, and liberalism - while not accomplishing much of anything; also as someone who wasted the largest liberal mandate since the mid sixties. Much of Obama's actions as president are aimed at a long term gameplan, and if he doesn't get two terms to flesh them out than they'll look like failures to most Americans. A Romney win would certainly mean the end of Obamacare (for the most part), a reversal of EPA regulations, and a repeal of Dodd-Frank. On the foreign policy front it might mean the US moves back to an almost pure focus on Middle Eastern strategy/blunders, a reversal of the Obama administration's focus on Asia. Judicial wise, he has little record in terms of appointing federal judges due to obstruction, and his successor would be replacing liberal judges on the SC - thus ensuring conservative dominance of the court for a generation.

Meanwhile if the CBO is right and we get 12 million jobs, it'll be seen as a complete rejection of liberal tax policy. And that's perhaps the biggest problem, because a good economy might give him the mandate he'll need to really go apeshit on domestic issues.

I've long felt that republicans were basically trying to neutralize the Bush years by destroying Obama. I doubt Obama will be considered a worse president, but if his four years are seen as a failure then it won't matter. And as someone else said, we'll have a clear precedent of an obstructive party ruining government to a point where a president cannot properly govern in an economic crisis.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
Downhome said:
If Obama loses, I wonder how he'll be remembered - as a bumbling Carter or Ford or a Reagan or Clinton who just happened to not get a second shot. It will be interesting to see if his own side instantly jumps ship and starts attacks of their own or if they stick with him through the years.
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Presidents who lose re-election are not remembered fondly. Pretty much ever.
 
L

Loudninja

Member
A full 80% of Latinos say they plan to vote for Obama in Arizona
New polling data out of Arizona released by America’s Voice and Latino Decisions suggests Arizona may be much closer than the polling averages indicate. A full 80% of Latinos say they plan to vote for Obama, compared to just 14% for Romney, and Latino enthusiasm is much, much higher in Arizona than the national average. In Latino Decisions national tracking poll 34% of Latinos say they are more excited about voting in 2012 while 36% say they were more excited back in 2008. In Arizona 60% are more enthusiastic in 2012 compared to just 16% who were more enthused in 2008. In October and November 2010 Latino Decisions polling in Nevada was picking up similar trends in Nevada, leading then Washington Post columnist Edward Schumacher-Matos to note on Election Day before the polls closed: “As the Western returns come in tonight, look out for the possibility of a Latino surprise. For the Democrats, a high Latino turnout could possibly save Harry Reid in Nevada.”

If Latino turnout is high in Arizona this year, it will be the Nevada of 2012 that takes the mainstream media by surprise.
Click to expand...
http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog...he-big-latino-vote-that-you-didnt-see-coming/
 
C

Chris R

Member
CHEEZMO™;43051195 said:
Hahahallah oh what now?
Click to expand...

Obama apparently wears a ring inscribed with "There is no God but Allah" according to a few websites. Sounded to me like some on the right might try to run with this like they did with the Birth Certificate stuff in 08 to scare voters into voting for Romney.
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
HylianTom said:
New Ras numbers:
Iowa: 49-47, O
Colorado: 49-48, O
New Mexico: 54-43, O
Nevada: 47-47
Connecticut: 51-45, O
(conducted on Oct 7 & 8th)
Click to expand...
best Romney can do after a blow away debate from Ras no less

All Biden has to do is defeat Ryan and the trajectory will be back to normal; if Obama wins or ties on Tuesday the race will be the same as it was pre-debate.

If they both suffer catastrophic defeats, then I think the mumblings about something fundamental changing might begin to ring true(r), although I think electorally there's really no way to win without a true Obama gaffe.
 
L

Lambtron

Unconfirmed Member
PhoenixDark said:
And as someone else said, we'll have a clear precedent of an obstructive party ruining government to a point where a president cannot properly govern in an economic crisis.
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I assume the four presidents on Mount Rushmore will simultaneously shed one tear if this comes true, proud at what we've become.
 
H

hydragonwarrior

Member
Cloudy said:
Stuff like this should calm down Dems. They wouldn't be doing this if they really thought Romney was suddenly winning
Click to expand...

Can't relax till next debate.

Amir0x said:
best Romney can do after a blow away debate from Ras no less

All Biden has to do is defeat Ryan and the trajectory will be back to normal; if Obama wins or ties on Tuesday the race will be the same as it was pre-debate.

If they both suffer catastrophic defeats, then I think the mumblings about something fundamental changing might begin to ring true(r), although I think electorally there's really no way to win without a true Obama gaffe.
Click to expand...

I think a second bad debate performance is equivalent to a true Obama gaffe.
 
T

Tamanon

Banned
rhfb said:
Obama apparently wears a ring inscribed with "There is no God but Allah" according to a few websites. Sounded to me like some on the right might try to run with this like they did with the Birth Certificate stuff in 08 to scare voters into voting for Romney.
Click to expand...

Oh, so nonsense then.
 
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