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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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H

HylianTom

Banned
Ohio really doesn't want to buy what Romney is selling. Being in favor of letting the American auto industry die a horrible death will do that to a candidate. What a shocker.

If Obama's organizational advantage really does translate to a small bump over what the polls show, we might really still get to see him sweep nearly all of the swing states. That would be hysterical.

I wonder if Fox News will continue to show that ridiculous electoral map projection. If so, there are going to be a lot of furious/shocked/stunned/depressed folks on Election Night.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
I had such hope that Virginia had turned more blue since last election, but it seems that under a 50/50 national popular vote split it leans Republican by about 2-3 points. I still hope Obama can snag it, I'd like a convincing rebuke of Republican ways, and not just an election that turned on Ohio.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
Hopefully with these news polls and a strong debate from Biden, the media narrative can change a bit. They are relentless when they sense a flailing campaign
 
A

Aylinato

Member
RustyNails said:
You have no idea how much I respect you. Keep up the good work!
Click to expand...


O trust me, I did a lot more in the summer. I was lucky to be part of a great team in my region. We kept topping the charts for most phone calls made, doors knocked.

I can roughly do 132 houses in an hour and a half(that means I talk to roughly 25% of the people)

I lost track of how many phone calls I made. I was doing 300+ calls a day in the summer, of course now I have school and a job so I haven't been able to be my team leader self (non-paid unforunately, I wish I could of worked for the campaign, I did apply for a position in OH!)
 
F

Fox318

Member
Cloudy said:
Hopefully with these news polls and a strong debate from Biden, the media narrative can change a bit. They are relentless when they sense a flailing campaign
Click to expand...

I know people like to look back at the 2004 election for a VP debate boost but I don't see it coming.

I can see somebody falling but not somebody rising.
 
C

Clevinger

Member
I was thinking the Libya thing would be a big deal, especially in the foreign policy debate, but with that dipshit and Issa screwing it up so badly and the revelation that all of them (including Paul Ryan) voted to reduce Embassy protection while Obama and co tried to increase it... yeah.

Now I'm wondering how that foreign policy debate will go.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Trakdown said:
I still think VA is going to go for Obama considering how well Kaine's polling. That + ground game should seal it if it's this close.
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Only reason why VA is closer than 2008 despite having UE rate of 5.9% is due to looming sequester. Almost entirety of northern VA subsides on government/defense related contracts, and almost entirety of northern VA is made up of educated people who makes tons of money from the defense contracts. It's unreal, the amount of defense contractors in that area. I think the fallout in the media from the 3rd debate (or 2nd debate, who knows) on foreign policy/defense will determine who they'll vote for.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
Aylinato said:
O trust me, I did a lot more in the summer. I was lucky to be part of a great team in my region. We kept topping the charts for most phone calls made, doors knocked.

I can roughly do 132 houses in an hour and a half(that means I talk to roughly 25% of the people)

I lost track of how many phone calls I made. I was doing 300+ calls a day in the summer, of course now I have school and a job so I haven't been able to be my team leader self (non-paid unforunately, I wish I could of worked for the campaign, I did apply for a position in OH!)
Click to expand...

How do Republicans react to you guys?
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
teh_pwn said:
Romney is doing better in polls, but the bounce has leveled off going by Rasmussen and Gallup. While these polls, especially Rasmussen, lean slightly Republican, they have better sample sizes and consistency then these random +5 polls in Romney's favor.

With Ohio nearly locked in, it looks like Obama has this. I expect that we'll see way better debate performance and a clean victory, but America might surprise me.
Click to expand...
Obama's performance in the Gallup poll is pretty reassuring. RV polls are closer in presidential elections than LV polls simply because more Americans show up to vote, though it'd still be nice to see that gap closed. And his approval remains high.

Ecotic said:
I had such hope that Virginia had turned more blue since last election, but it seems that under a 50/50 national popular vote split it leans Republican by about 2-3 points. I still hope Obama can snag it, I'd like a convincing rebuke of Republican ways, and not just an election that turned on Ohio.
Click to expand...
Hell, I still hope Obama wins North Carolina. Nothing would send a stronger message to the GOP than Obama sweeping every swing state.

It would mean my map is wrong, and I'd have to take a shot of something nasty on election night as a result (for every state I call wrong), but sobriety is a sacrifice I'd be willing to make.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Clevinger said:
I was thinking the Libya thing would be a big deal, especially in the foreign policy debate, but with that dipshit and Issa screwing it up so badly and the revelation that all of them (including Paul Ryan) voted to reduce Embassy protection while Obama and co tried to increase it... yeah.

Now I'm wondering how that foreign policy debate will go.
Click to expand...

i don't think people really care about libya either way, but obama's biggest weakness was just neutralized. obama just needs to not shit himself on stage again, and he'll pretty much clean romney's clock.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Looking at Florida internals.

Obama and mitt's favorability up but unlike Mitt Obama's unfavorability down.

Obama gained 3 on his medicare lead to 50-42! In Florida! Dat Ryan and vouchers.


For the most part, they are showing Florida, like Ohio, has barely changed if it even has changed.

Terrible polls for Romney. Hopefully, more like these two to come.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Aylinato said:
O trust me, I did a lot more in the summer. I was lucky to be part of a great team in my region. We kept topping the charts for most phone calls made, doors knocked.

I can roughly do 132 houses in an hour and a half(that means I talk to roughly 25% of the people)

I lost track of how many phone calls I made. I was doing 300+ calls a day in the summer, of course now I have school and a job so I haven't been able to be my team leader self (non-paid unforunately, I wish I could of worked for the campaign, I did apply for a position in OH!)
Click to expand...

Respect. That's dedication. If I was still in college, I'd have tried to do the same. Alas, money is all we can contribute to the election now.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
The Ohio poll has an 11 point dem ID advantage, in part due to early voting

One factor that may have pulled the party ID more heavily toward Democrats in this poll was early voting. One-in-five respondents (18 percent) said they have already voted, and, of those, almost two-thirds (63 percent) said they voted for Obama.
Click to expand...
 
A

Aylinato

Member
Cloudy said:
How do Republicans react to you guys?
Click to expand...


Being in Michigan the only republicans who I ran into were old white people. They generally were very angry at my fellow volunteers, and me. One of the other fellows(interns) got a racist person on the phone who cussed at her using every slur that's in the book. Personally I had a lady tell me to bite her ass over the phone, and she said Obama can bite her ass too. Door to door people were much nicer except one day, but I think people were in a bad mood that day.

The democrats I ran into on the door to door offered me water all the time(which I always thanked but rejected) and got complimented for my hard work.




The saddest thing that I ran into was this one household that I went up to. It was a lesbian couple, which I did not even think of that while campaigning, and the one woman told me "of course I'm voting democrat, otherwise I wouldn't be able to live with my, as the state calls us, cohabitation partner."

When she said that I lost my ability to speak. I forgot how ignorant my state still is not letting two people live their lives together. It's utterly disgusting the way they are treating people in the LGBT community with such disrespect. I was totally taken back by that, and remembered how important this election is.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Aylinato said:
Being in Michigan the only republicans who I ran into were old white people. They generally were very angry at my fellow volunteers, and me. One of the other fellows(interns) got a racist person on the phone who cussed at her using every slur that's in the book. Personally I had a lady tell me to bite her ass over the phone, and she said Obama can bite her ass too. Door to door people were much nicer except one day, but I think people were in a bad mood that day.

The democrats I ran into on the door to door offered me water all the time(which I always thanked but rejected) and got complimented for my hard work.




The saddest thing that I ran into was this one household that I went up to. It was a lesbian couple, which I did not even think of that while campaigning, and the one woman told me "of course I'm voting democrat, otherwise I wouldn't be able to live with my, as the state calls us, cohabitation partner."

When she said that I lost my ability to speak. I forgot how ignorant my state still is not letting two people live their lives together. It's utterly disgusting the way they are treating people in the LGBT community with such disrespect. I was totally taken back by that, and remembered how important this election is.
Click to expand...

Did you say anything to her after her comment?
 
E

Ecotic

Member
One factor that may have pulled the party ID more heavily toward Democrats in this poll was early voting. One-in-five respondents (18 percent) said they have already voted, and, of those, almost two-thirds (63 percent) said they voted for Obama.
Click to expand...
Outstanding.
 
K

kaching

"GAF's biggest wanker"
Wall said:
President Obama should take notes from Elizabeth Warren. That is how you sell the Democratic platform and debate a moderate Republican.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3SREj4atlFU
Click to expand...
Seems to me Warren took some notes from Warren. This is her third debate after all, and I don't recall everyone regarding her performance in the first one all that favorably either. She just had the benefit of Brown raising an unwarranted kerfuffle over her Native American heritage.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Kaine's lead down to 1 with Obama down 1 in Va. Kaine needs Obama to bounce back a bit in Va.

Va only poll showing a switch (it's among independents). That NBC write-up is wrong with the gains in Indy voters since it didn't account for the early indy voters since they listed them as Dem.
 
A

Aylinato

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Did you say anything to her after her comment?
Click to expand...


Well she said that her partner and her wouldn't be able to help in Michigan as they were headed to another state for some reason, so I told her to help out in that state.

I was really shocked to the core, as I keep forgetting how much work needs to be done in Michigan for equality.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
Didn't I tell you guys Romney wasn't going to gain substantially in Ohio?

It'd take a video of Obama destroying every single factory in the state DBZ-style while yelling that Kasich didn't go far enough with SB5 the whole time to make it flip.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Aylinato said:
Well she said that her partner and her wouldn't be able to help in Michigan as they were headed to another state for some reason, so I told her to help out in that state.

I was really shocked to the core, as I keep forgetting how much work needs to be done in Michigan for equality.
Click to expand...

Was this near Wayne State? Just curious. I did the census in Washtenaw County (Ypsilanti near Ann Arbor - ie a super liberal area) and was amazed at how hostile more than a few people were. You could tell they were tea party types and very distrusting of the entire process; this was around the time Bachman, Limbaugh, and others were claiming the Census was being run to help Obama.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Was this near Wayne State? Just curious. I did the census in Washtenaw County (Ypsilanti near Ann Arbor - ie a super liberal area) and was amazed at how hostile more than a few people were. You could tell they were tea party types and very distrusting of the entire process; this was around the time Bachman, Limbaugh, and others were claiming the Census was being run to help Obama.
Click to expand...

I live in Ypsi and there's this dude not far from my place with a huge Tea Party flag LOL
 
Z

Zzoram

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Was this near Wayne State? Just curious. I did the census in Washtenaw County (Ypsilanti near Ann Arbor - ie a super liberal area) and was amazed at how hostile more than a few people were. You could tell they were tea party types and very distrusting of the entire process; this was around the time Bachman, Limbaugh, and others were claiming the Census was being run to help Obama.
Click to expand...

I never understand why conservatives don't want to be counted by the census. That's what determines where government money gets spent, what areas are expected to need new schools due to new children, etc.

They only hurt themselves if they choose (illegally) not to be counted.
 
A

Aylinato

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Was this near Wayne State? Just curious. I did the census in Washtenaw County (Ypsilanti near Ann Arbor - ie a super liberal area) and was amazed at how hostile more than a few people were. You could tell they were tea party types and very distrusting of the entire process; this was around the time Bachman, Limbaugh, and others were claiming the Census was being run to help Obama.
Click to expand...


I haven't actually done any campaigning around Wayne state. I've done a lot of different cities around Wayne County though.

Surprisingly Livionia, the only real republican stronghold turned out a ton of volunteers and people willing to help out the campaign. Of course that probably has to do with the autobail out
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
I canvassed once in Bachmann's district in 2010. It wasn't exactly fun. Nothing like getting chased back to my car by hicks with shotguns, but just some unpleasantness.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
PhoenixDark said:
The Ohio poll has an 11 point dem ID advantage, in part due to early voting
Click to expand...

And VA has a +2D, +10I compared to +6D in 2008.

The thing that all the polls over the last week tell us - If Obama campaign's ground game is as good as everybody says, he will Win (maybe narrowly, maybe big not sure). Anytime the polls have a party ID breakdown for voters similar to 2008 Obama leads by decent margins.

I wonder what the changes are now in Nate's model of Romney winning the popular vote but losing EC.

Also, Biden's main job will be to reignite that Dem Enthusiasm. The election will be won by the base whipped up in a frenzy. The biggest problem with Obama's god awful debate performance was that it has made Dem enthusiasm even worse for the election. It is about time people stopped saying Debates don't matter. They seem to matter in more ways than one.
 
Z

Zzoram

Member
Aaron Strife said:
I canvassed once in Bachmann's district in 2010. It wasn't exactly fun. Nothing like getting chased back to my car by hicks with shotguns, but just some unpleasantness.
Click to expand...

Since filling out the census is required by law, do you report all the households that don't do it and do they get fined or something?
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Aylinato said:
She might lose this election cycle. I will enjoy that more than Obama beating Romney.
Click to expand...

Things I would enjoy:

- The Female Trifecta (Baldwin, McCaskill, Warren) all winning
- Obama winning
- Marriage Equality going 4 for 4 in ME, MD, WA, and MN
- Bachmann losing

I would cry happiness
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
The MSNBC headline reports those polls as great news for Romney but I don't quite see it. He just had his best week of the campaign while Obama had his worst at the same time and the polls are barely changed from the previous numbers. What am I missing here?
 
S

SpeedySwaf

Member
Cloudy said:
The MSNBC headline reports those polls as great news for Romney but I don't quite see it. He just had his best week of the campaign while Obama had his worst at the same time and the polls are barely changed from the previous numbers. What am I missing here?
Click to expand...
Horse race narrative. Even before the debates, I think CNN and some other sites said the race was a "dead heat."
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Zzoram said:
Since filling out the census is required by law, do you report all the households that don't do it and do they get fined or something?
Click to expand...
Oh no, it was just doorknocking.

ivysaur12 said:
Things I would enjoy:

- The Female Trifecta (Baldwin, McCaskill, Warren) all winning
- Obama winning
- Marriage Equality going 4 for 4 in ME, MD, WA, and MN
- Bachmann losing

I would cry happiness
Click to expand...
Bachmann's district could be the only gain in the House by Democrats and I would be happy.
 
E

ErasureAcer

Banned
ivysaur12 said:
Things I would enjoy:

- The Female Trifecta (Baldwin, McCaskill, Warren) all winning
- Obama winning
- Marriage Equality going 4 for 4 in ME, MD, WA, and MN
- Bachmann losing

I would cry happiness
Click to expand...

Shelley Berkley isn't a woman?

If I had to pick 2...I'd take Marriage and Obama.
 
L

Loudninja

Member
I posted this earlier
Joe Walsh Attacks Tammy Duckworth With Photo Of Her Picking Out Dress
“I was marching in a parade in Schaumburg (Ill.), Sunday, two days before the Democratic convention,” Walsh said, holding up the photo, “when Tammy Duckworth was on a stage down in Charlotte (N.C.) — if you can look at the picture — picking out a dress for her speech Tuesday night.”

Back in September, Walsh issued a statement attacking Duckworth’s speech at the convention, and accusing her of dodging debates: “It has become abundantly clear that at this point the only debate Ms. Duckworth is actually interested in having is which outfit she’ll be wearing for her big speech.” Walsh pointed to the photo on Tuesday night as a way to explain what he said previously.
Click to expand...
“And I think darn near everybody in this audience is sick and tired — and I’ll say with a smile — of Republicans and Democrats, elected officials, who seem to poll test every syllable of every word that they utter, because they’re so afraid of offending people and losing votes,” said Walsh. “You’re seeing the perfect example of that up here on this stage. Tammy Duckworth will not say a thing that David Axelrod and her advisers won’t let her say.”
Click to expand...
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2...ammy-duckworth-dress-photo.php?ref=fpnewsfeed

Something is wrong with this guy.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/howard-fineman/election-2012_b_1953179.html

A week or 10 days ago, reporters, analysts and airheads alike were wondering aloud whether President Barack Obama might be on his way to a crushing victory of the then-hapless Mitt Romney.

Before last Wednesday's debate, one of the grand viziers of number-crunching (certainly NOT our own cautious and sagacious Mark Blumenthal) said that no one who was in Romney's trailing position at that point had ever come back to win the White House.

That looks like a laughable statement now.

My own view was that it was way too early to count Romney out. I wrote and said that a guy who had made that many mistakes -- who had had so much dumped on his head, and who still remained within hailing distance of the president -- still had a chance.

Less than a week later, things seemed to have turned utterly upside-down. The Denver debate has sent Romney rocketing into a lead, and tightened races in key swing states to the point that a Romney Electoral College victory now seems eminently possible -- rather than the ridiculous GOP wishful thinking it looked like only days ago.

Here in Washington, Democrats who don't like Obama -- who view him as an arrogant loner who never calls them -- seem almost to relish what looks like his impending demise. I talked to one of them Tuesday night. He compared the Denver debate to 1980, when Ronald Reagan in one session reassured a nation, and in so doing sent President Jimmy Carter back to his peanut farm in Georgia.

A non-Fox media that has largely lauded and protected Obama is dialing back fast, choosing to write straighter, less vitriolic stories about Romney and looking for Obama-collapse story lines. Some writers heretofore thought of as "liberal" and/or in the tank for the president suddenly are writing that Romney ISN'T a liar, might in fact be a man of good will, and is actually shrewd.

The thing about the media: They are either at your feet or at your throat.
Click to expand...

This is verytrue. If Obama loses, you will see all the Blue Dogs come out of the woodwork to dance on his political grave. And the liberal media will write about how "aloof" and "arrogant" he was.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
ryutaro's mama said:
If you could only choose 3?

If you could only choose 2?
Click to expand...
If I had to drop any of those it'd be Bachmann. She is the bane of every progressive Minnesotan's existence but a not-crazy Republican would likely be able to hold down the seat for life (thus Jim Graves would only be a Congressman for 2 years) and it'd be selfish to choose that over gay marriage or preserving the Senate.
 
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