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PoliGAF 2013 |OT2| Worth 77% of OT1

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O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
frc-on-our-knees-gay-marriage.jpg
 
C

Clevinger

Member
Just a heads up guys, for those who don't know. I didn't. Don't ever post that ronpaulit'shappening gif. It's banned (and apparently has been for a while now?).

rip mamba
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Clevinger said:
Just a heads up guys, for those who don't know. I didn't. Don't ever post that ronpaulit'shappening gif. It's banned (and apparently has been for a while now?).

rip mamba
Click to expand...

Really? It's been banned? I remember them saying not to overuse it, but that's about it. Is Mamba coming back? Please say he's coming back...
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Clevinger said:
Just a heads up guys, for those who don't know. I didn't. Don't ever post that ronpaulit'shappening gif. It's banned (and apparently has been for a while now?).

rip mamba
Click to expand...

What? Lame to the max. Hope he's not gone for too long.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Dax01 said:
Eh. I don't know who those guys are, and I've never heard of them before. Either way, that doesn't seem like a significant portion of commentators to me. There's always going to be a couple people who do that here and there on both sides.
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Willis is a rather prominent Media Matters writer/researcher; you've almost certainly run across his work without knowing it (same with me, until I started following him on twitter).
-----------

I have big doubts about a discharge occurring in the House. Seems more likely that the House will pass some type of far right immigration bill in an attempt to cover their ass, similar to how they've handled major events in the past. As Josh Marshall pointed out, there is no immigration cliff or time requirement. The House doesn't have to pass anything, and ultimately they'll probably kill reform by producing a bill that most of the senate/Obama cannot support; can anyone imagine a conference bill the senate and House republicans will agree on?

Many republicans have clearly decided that the party doesn't need a makeover, and maximizing the Evangelical/white/old voter is still a solid idea to them. Most republican congressmen don't have to worry about Hispanics in their district thanks to redistricting, so they won't be punished.

And in 4 years when Hillary or whoever attempts to pass an immigration bill, someone from the WSJ will write an article about how Obama killed immigration reform back in 2013 by demanding that the "controversial" pathway to citizenship was adopted.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
PhoenixPause said:
Willis is a rather prominent Media Matters writer/researcher; you've almost certainly run across his work without knowing it (same with me, until I started following him on twitter).
-----------

I have big doubts about a discharge occurring in the House. Seems more likely that the House will pass some type of far right immigration bill in an attempt to cover their ass, similar to how they've handled major events in the past. As Josh Marshall pointed out, there is no immigration cliff or time requirement. The House doesn't have to pass anything, and ultimately they'll probably kill reform by producing a bill that most of the senate/Obama cannot support; can anyone imagine a conference bill the senate and House republicans will agree on?

Many republicans have clearly decided that the party doesn't need a makeover, and maximizing the Evangelical/white/old voter is still a solid idea to them. Most republican congressmen don't have to worry about Hispanics in their district thanks to redistricting, so they won't be punished.

And in 4 years when Hillary or whoever attempts to pass an immigration bill, someone from the WSJ will write an article about how Obama killed immigration reform back in 2013 by demanding that the "controversial" pathway to citizenship was adopted.
Click to expand...
There's probably enough overlap between diehard teahadists who aren't going to vote for any immigration reform period, and the reasonable Republicans who understand voting for a far right bill would probably make them look even worse than simply not passing anything, that would kill such a proposition. Much like how the farm bill didn't pass for similar reasons, the far right hijacked it with amendments and then ended up not voting for it anyway.

This issue alone won't win enough House elections for Democrats to win a majority, but it does pad the margins (CA-31 and CO-06 for example, two prime pickups). And failing to pass a bill will only contribute to a sense of ineptitude produced by Boehner's caucus.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
PhoenixPause said:
Many republicans have clearly decided that the party doesn't need a makeover, and maximizing the Evangelical/white/old voter is still a solid idea to them. Most republican congressmen don't have to worry about Hispanics in their district thanks to redistricting, so they won't be punished.
Click to expand...

The GOP is a regional party. Lots of House members have districts that are solidly Republican and to win, they need to stick to the hard-right lest they be primaried off of the ballot. Thus, local House Republicans are killing the national Republican party in order to save their own seats.

In a way, the Gerrymandering may have sown the seeds of their own destruction. It has made them strong in their districts but nation-wide and often state-wide, they lose.

Of course the problem is that we are stuck with nonfunctional government for the next decade or so.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
speculawyer said:
The GOP is a regional party. Lots of House members have districts that are solidly Republican and to win, they need to stick to the hard-right lest they be primaried off of the ballot. Thus, local House Republicans are killing the national Republican party in order to save their own seats.

In a way, the Gerrymandering may have sown the seeds of their own destruction. It has made them strong in their districts but nation-wide and often state-wide, they lose.

Of course the problem is that we are stuck with nonfunctional government for the next decade or so.
Click to expand...
Case in point

Did you know that if you cut out the Southern states, the Democrats would have a majority in Congress?
 
J

Jooney

Member
While I'm in Austin I'm going to check out the SB 5 protests tomorrow. Looking forward to seeing a big crowd. And democracy in action!
 
G

GoddyofAus

Banned
Obamas second win has been a hilarious catalyst for the Tea Party turning into the worlds political bad joke. The GOP moderates (if there are any left) must be feeling uncomfortable.

Appealing to the <50 IQs in the deep south has proven to be a dramatic failure of judgement.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Black Mamba said:
http://www.nbcnews.com/video/meet-the-press/52355266#52355266

Maddow on meet the press destroys jim demint on gay marriage. Some other GOPer tries to play the victim card in response, lol.

Later that same guy argued the mid-term elections would be big cuz of it and when maddow pointed out that since then his group and the GOP lost all battles against same-sex marriage prior to the SCOTUS ruling and went from 9 to 12 states and now 13. Guy was all "yeah, but we got the evangelicals out to vote" and Maddow all "and still lost." lolz
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Haha wow

Gay marriage isn't abortion. There will always be a pro life movement, and new pro lifers are created every day thanks to ultrasounds. But there is no life changing epiphany in relation to gay marriage: nothing changes except gay people get married. If republicans couldn't oust the judge in fucking Iowa, there's no chance at some country wide rejection of gay marriage. The game is over.

People vote based on how they're doing, and how the economy is doing. When the economy sucks, the party in the White House gets shitcanned (2010). When the economy is good, the party in the White House does well (1998). We don't know what 2014 will bring, but if the economy continues to (slowly) grow, the economy will be in good shape by next July. Most people will go into voting booths with that in mind, not a year old court decision that didn't impact their lives.
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
Some small facts to consider with immigration:

The conventional wisdom around Washington these days is that the Republican Party needs to pass immigration reform if it’s going to survive. But remember: House Republicans aren’t the same thing as “the Republican Party.” And they probably don’t need to pass immigration reform to keep their majority. In fact, passing immigration reform — at least with a path to citizenship — might put them in more danger. Two figures from Janet Hook in the Wall Street Journal show why.

First, “only 38 of the House’s 234 Republicans, or 16%, represent districts in which Latinos account for 20% or more of the population.”

Second, “only 28 Republican-held districts are considered even remotely at risk of being contested by a Democratic challenger, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.”

So for about 200 of the House’s Republicans, a primary challenge by conservatives angry over “amnesty” is probably a more realistic threat than defeat at the hands of angry Hispanic voters, or even angry Democrats. “Our guys actually do primary over immigration,” a top House Republican aide who wants to get immigration done told me.

Of course, that leaves some 34 Republicans who have reason to fear a Democratic challenge. And it leaves dozens who privately support immigration reform and don’t have much to fear from either Democratic or Republican challengers.
Click to expand...
 
F

Frank the Great

Banned
That confirms that immigration will pass the House as long as Boehner has the backbone to bring it to the floor. They only need a handful of Republicans, right? I'm sure they could find them.

It all turns on Boner.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Frank the Great said:
That confirms that immigration will pass the House as long as Boehner has the backbone to bring it to the floor. They only need a handful of Republicans, right? I'm sure they could find them.

It all turns on Boner.
Click to expand...
Why would he do that and lose his speakership? Immigration doesn't matter to most republican districts, they won't be punished if the bill dies. Boehner doesn't have a reason to pass anything tbh. He could be Speaker until 2020 if he wants, thanks to the census/gerrymandering.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
PhoenixPause said:
Haha wow

Gay marriage isn't abortion. There will always be a pro life movement, and new pro lifers are created every day thanks to ultrasounds. But there is no life changing epiphany in relation to gay marriage: nothing changes except gay people get married. If republicans couldn't oust the judge in fucking Iowa, there's no chance at some country wide rejection of gay marriage. The game is over.
Click to expand...

But the game is not over. Only legal in 13 states. If they were smart, the GOP should have been praying for Prop 8 to be declared unconstitutional nationwide. But instead, the issue will be around as a wedge issue where the GOP will continue to lose over time. Drip, drip, drip. The demographics just get worse & worse as old people die and the younger people that don't even see it as an issue become a larger & larger share of the electorate.

This issue will be a millstone around the GOP's neck for another decade or so.



Abortion remains a vexing issue because it is right around the 50/50 mark with a big gray area in the center that depends on how you word poll questions and write legislation. But I think the advantage is for the pro-choice side because of a 'silent majority' that is created by adding in the people who will say they are pro-life but will support pro-choice when push comes to shove since their sisters, wives, daughters won't be able to get abortions if the pro-lifers close down clinics.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
speculawyer said:
But the game is not over. Only legal in 13 states. If they were smart, the GOP should have been praying for Prop 8 to be declared unconstitutional nationwide. But instead, the issue will be around as a wedge issue where the GOP will continue to lose over time. Drip, drip, drip. The demographics just get worse & worse as old people die and the younger people that don't even see it as an issue become a larger & larger share of the electorate.

This issue will be a millstone around the GOP's neck for another decade or so.



Abortion remains a vexing issue because it is right around the 50/50 mark with a big gray area in the center that depends on how you word poll questions and write legislation. But I think the advantage is for the pro-choice side because of a 'silent majority' that is created by adding in the people who will say they are pro-life but will support pro-choice when push comes to shove since their sisters, wives, daughters won't be able to get abortions if the pro-lifers close down clinics.
Click to expand...

The game is certainly over in terms of mindshare, demographics, and national attitudes. You're right that gay people in Mississippi won't be getting married anytime soon for instance, but I think we're going to see a rather swift change throughout the country (except the south and heartland).

Rand Paul is ultimately right: the debate over gay marriage on a nation level is over. Proponents and opponents should focus on states, either by striking down gay marriage bans or instituting gay marriage bans.

The more republicans talk about gay marriage on a national level and denigrate gay people, the more elections they'll lose on the national level. I think that's going to be the next stage of GOP presidential politics: avoiding the issue and declaring it a state matter.
 
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