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PoliGAF 2014 |OT| Kay Hagan and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad News

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I would just like to juxtapose two recent issues real quick.

On the one hand, when the Supreme Court decided McCutcheon, some were outraged because contributions of money aren't speech.

On the other hand, Eich's financial contribution in support of Prop. 8 is equated with Tim Cook saying "the most abhorrent thing about women," with "the relm of fighting words," and holding "racist and repulsive views." Almost as if his contribution were a symbol of a thing as objectionable as those.

One of those arguments has to be false.

I don't think that giving money is the same act as speaking about something. But that doesn't make it incomparable nor does it make it any less objectionable. It may even make it more objectionable to a consumer, because the consumer can trace a path between his or her spending to the company to the anti-gay spending. It's the same reason people wanted to stop giving money to Chick-Fil-A: they do not want to indirectly fund anti-gay movements.

It's worth pointing out as well (although this is unrelated to the above comment), that corporate executives are not normal people. They are very privileged people in American society. People who are permitted to make much more money than average Americans. As such, they are given much more influence and power in the society. While it might be out of bounds to insist that Joe Schmoe who works in IT be subject to termination for donating money to opponents of marriage equality, it is not at all out of bounds to insist that corporate executives be held to different standards.
 
At one point is was considered out-of-bounds to talk about politician's children. But now even unborn children are fair game?

(But I have to commend the press, they've been pretty good about keeping Obama's kids out of the news.)

I chucked when Fox News tried to claim that Chelsea Clinton only got pregnant for "political reasons".
 
This is why i don't play the party purist game for most Democrats (except the most grievous examples like Joe Lieberman). Every politician is bound to take a position you disagree with. Who the fuck cares? If you want someone who you agree with 100% of the time then run for office

I agree with Bernie Sanders on everything though.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
You can define a boycott as speech, I guess, but you don't get to duck the philosophical argument about why people should feel no restraint in indulging the first-order urge to boycott by defining it as speech. Boycotts do direct economic harm - that's the point. That's quite a bit different from most other sorts of speech, which at worst offend (though again note that there are people who take psychological harm quite seriously and who think that that justifies even outright banning certain other kinds of speech based on their content).

People shouldn't face consequences for their speech, in general, because we value freedom of speech. That's the whole point of it, as I hope I explained above. It's still bizarre to me to hear a liberal insisting on this huge distinction between consequences from the government and consequences from private power post-1964, or maybe post-Marx.

And it seems rather ahistorical to talk like boycotts are an important tool for getting rid of things like racist or misogynistic speech. I'm having trouble coming up with any examples of influential boycotts in response to such speech. I can think of some useful boycotts of problematic actions, but that's obviously not what we're talking about. Overall, economic coercion seems to have done much, much more harm than good, given the the actual history of the US, and if we just agreed to never do it at all the side of justice would be at much less of a disadvantage going forward, I think.

I went to bat for Duck Dynasty guy: http://neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=94191925&postcount=847

Or at least I expressed similar concerns. Eich wasn't using his position as Mozilla CEO to gain a platform for his views, which is a pretty important difference to me and is a distinction that I brought up in that post. I was fine with the Chik-Fil-A boycott too because the company was actually involved, although I think the boycott was expressive rather than effective.

These are the most convincing parts of the argument so far, but I still have some reservations. I had to come up with this thought experiment to explore the hypocrisy:

Say there's an author that wrote fiction books that was pretty popular with liberals. But at one point I learn that his publisher pays him 25% of each book's sale, and he donates 20% of his overall income to anti-gay rights causes. So because I don't want $1 of my $20 purchase going to something I find immoral, I stop buying his books even though I really like him, and tell a friend that wouldn't want $1 of his $20 going to that either. Eventually the word spreads so far that no one buys his book and he is forced out of his job for a political view that didn't affect his books at all. This is with no witch hunting, no calling for anyone to get fired, just widespread moral based capitalism.

Meanwhile an employer elsewhere said he doesn't want to spend his money to pay an employee he likes, because he has reason to believe 20% of the money he's giving the employee is going to be donated to abortion clinics. This leads to every single liberal that drove the author out of a job goes crazy about it and says he should be forced to spend money on that employee he doesn't want to spend money on, through employment or a settlement.

The reasoning and results were exactly the same in both scenarios, and the only functional difference is one example required some collectivism where the other did not. So are they hypocrites or not? If they're hypocrites does that mean they should have forced themselves to buy the book they honestly don't want to buy, or should they have reframed from spreading honest facts around to people that would like to know those facts, or should they straight up say it's ok for that employer to do that? If they're not hypocrites, what makes their situation different from the employers and why does that difference matter?

I would have to say they aren't hypocrites because the conclusions from calling them hypocrites all seem crazy, and I would say the obvious difference is that one is a single employer and the other is a group of consumers, but honestly I can't really give a great explanation why that difference matters, since a group of consumers do have the same functional economic power that an employer has in these cases. Maybe it's just enough to say that collectivizing is difficult enough that it has its own checks in place that an employer wouldn't have without a government checking on him. I mean, it's not like people are going to get enough interest to successfully bring down a boring old middle manager who is using his salary in politically bigoted ways in his off time.
 

East Lake

Member
http://valleywag.gawker.com/greenli...sing-our-second-tech-1566302438/+laceydonohue

Don't you love destructive economic bubbles that don't make the economy any better?
PmE62QS.jpg

Lol.
 
So, the candidates that are fighting for a spot to take on Hagan had their first debate tonight:

Republican Senate candidates pledge to close federal departments

All four seem to be on the fringe. With the uproar in NC over teacher pay, I wonder if saying you'll dismantle the department of education will come back to bite Tillis in the ass, along with being against an increase in minimum wage. Hagan is going to look like a very moderate choice against any of this guys.
 

Piecake

Member
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/22/elizabeth-warren-wall-street

Why would Warren release what's basically a campaign book if she's not running? The book is garnering a lot more buzz than what's usual for a politician's book.


Warren also supports charter schools though, so there's that.

Charter schools are quite beneficial if they actually fulfill a community need. Students do not learn the same and some students need a different learning environment to succeed than offered at public schools. I mean, hell, doesnt a charter school dedicated towards teaching english language learners sound like a good idea?

Charter schools only suck if its a front for religion or if they just opened a charter school just for the hell of it (money)
 
Charter schools are quite beneficial if they actually fulfill a community need. Students do not learn the same and some students need a different learning environment to succeed than offered at public schools. I mean, hell, doesnt a charter school dedicated towards teaching english language learners sound like a good idea?

Charter schools only suck if its a front for religion or if they just opened a charter school just for the hell of it (money)
There's nothing that can be done as a charter school that can't be done at a public school.

You can have magnet schools. Charter schools are about people funneling public money to private hands in the guise of accountability. It shifts the argument away from fixing public schools where most underprivileged students will always end up.

It's away to dismantle unions, get away from public accountability and get rich and do away with the idea of public goods.

I don't make these pronouncements of orthodoxy often but why should any liberal believe in charter school rather than reforming public schools? Its abhorrent.
 

Piecake

Member
There's nothing that can be done as a charter school that can't be done at a public school.

You can have magnet schools. Charter schools are about people funneling public money to private hands in the guise of accountability. It shifts the argument away from fixing public schools where most underprivileged students will always end up.

It's away to dismantle unions, get away from public accountability and get rich and do away with the idea of public goods.

I don't make these pronouncements of orthodoxy often but why should any liberal believe in charter school rather than reforming public schools? Its abhorrent.

Thats not really true at all. These programs require administrative backing. It would be a nightmare to have a project-based learning program (basically impossible in public schools thanks to standards and standarized tests), a full English Language Learning program, a program that specifically caters to the needs of troubled youth, etc all in the same school. Not to mention that the school environment is just as important.

Want to create a language immersion school? Spanish or Chinese? Good luck doing that in a public school.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
lol Republicans:

But as Bill Toland at the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes, the overall increase in Medicaid enrollment in states that opted out means that states like Kansas and Georgia will still end up insuring more people, but without 100 percent federal support. "It’s a positive for health overhaul advocates," Toland writes. "But for those who were against 'Obamacare' to begin with, it’s a case study in unintended consequences since new enrollees will mean new expenses for the state."

For years Obamacare critics have been worried about the "woodwork effect" — the theory that the publicity surrounding the Affordable Care Act (and the individual mandate) would drive people who were already eligible for Medicaid into the program. Those people would come out of the woodwork, costing states money — on average, the federal government foots the bill for just 60 percent of non-expansion Medicaid enrollees. "The state's complaint is, 'We said we would cover these people and now we're going to have to actually cover them and pay for them,'" Stan Dorn, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute, told The Huffington Post in 2012.

http://www.thewire.com/politics/201...pansion-have-the-worst-of-both-worlds/361065/

So basically, state costs for medicaid will still be going up even in states that refuse the expansion because people have signed up who didn't know they were already eligible for medicaid, but will have no additional help from the federal government AND on top of that, these states will be losing additional money because they'll still be paying all the Obamacare taxes, but not getting anything in return.

Way to sock it to Obama, tea baggers.
 
There's nothing that can be done as a charter school that can't be done at a public school.

You can have magnet schools. Charter schools are about people funneling public money to private hands in the guise of accountability. It shifts the argument away from fixing public schools where most underprivileged students will always end up.

It's away to dismantle unions, get away from public accountability and get rich and do away with the idea of public goods.

I don't make these pronouncements of orthodoxy often but why should any liberal believe in charter school rather than reforming public schools? Its abhorrent.

Any thorough fixing of public schools is going to require weakening the teachers union in order to create more accountability to benefit the students. If the teachers union won't accept this, and really are only options are the charter schools or the status quo.
 

Piecake

Member
Any thorough fixing of public schools is going to require weakening the teachers union in order to create more accountability to benefit the students. If the teachers union won't accept this, and really are only options are the charter schools or the status quo.

The problem with accountability measures that have been put in place recently is that they are fucking terrible. Grading a teacher's worth based on the standardized test scores is a horrible idea because standardized tests are not a good indication at all of student learning. Not to mention that they are culturally biased.

Teaching strategies, like problem based learning, are also poorly suited for standardized tests because it sacrifices facts for learning critical thinking, argument, and self-managed learning. I would hope that everyone would agree that the latter is a far better goal of education than simply drilling a bunch of facts into individuals that they will probably forgot soon anyways.

Just give more power to the principle to remove poor teachers since he/she is the person who will actually know if the teacher is effective or not. Some test certainly wont
 
lol Republicans:



http://www.thewire.com/politics/201...pansion-have-the-worst-of-both-worlds/361065/

So basically, state costs for medicaid will still be going up even in states that refuse the expansion because people have signed up who didn't know they were already eligible for medicaid, but will have no additional help from the federal government AND on top of that, these states will be losing additional money because they'll still be paying all the Obamacare taxes, but not getting anything in return.

Way to sock it to Obama, tea baggers.
So poetic justice smacked down on Rick Perry, Rick Scott, and other clowns.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
lol Republicans:



http://www.thewire.com/politics/201...pansion-have-the-worst-of-both-worlds/361065/

So basically, state costs for medicaid will still be going up even in states that refuse the expansion because people have signed up who didn't know they were already eligible for medicaid, but will have no additional help from the federal government AND on top of that, these states will be losing additional money because they'll still be paying all the Obamacare taxes, but not getting anything in return.

Way to sock it to Obama, tea baggers.
From their perspective this really is a victory, if they can spin all of the negative stuff that results as "because Obamacare"
 

Gotchaye

Member
I would have to say they aren't hypocrites because the conclusions from calling them hypocrites all seem crazy, and I would say the obvious difference is that one is a single employer and the other is a group of consumers, but honestly I can't really give a great explanation why that difference matters, since a group of consumers do have the same functional economic power that an employer has in these cases. Maybe it's just enough to say that collectivizing is difficult enough that it has its own checks in place that an employer wouldn't have without a government checking on him. I mean, it's not like people are going to get enough interest to successfully bring down a boring old middle manager who is using his salary in politically bigoted ways in his off time.

I'd say that there is a problem if the author is actually forced to stop writing (and lacks other good options) or if the author doesn't make much money in the first place. It's a little complicated, though - if you're just not capable of separating the artist from the art such that you actually don't enjoy reading the author anymore, then that's rather different than choosing to punish the author. What if instead of an author (where I think it's easy to slip and think about a really famous author who's going to be doing just fine even in the face of a large boycott, and whose work might plausibly be infected with the author's politics) we consider a local farmer who grows vegetables and sells them at a farmers' market. The farmer has as much of a right as anyone else to give some income to causes. It seems to me to clearly be a problem if the farmer is effectively run out of town because a significant fraction of the people who were buying vegetables decide that they don't like the farmer's politics. It's simply wrong to condition buying vegetables on agreeing with someone's politics, even if they're using some of the money you're giving them to fund things you don't like, at least when we're talking about this kind of individual farmer making only a little more than necessary to get by.

Basically I agree with EV that people making lots of money don't deserve nearly the same protections as people who don't make lots of money. I was only "uncomfortable" with the boycott of Mozilla. I think it's terrible when someone gets fired from a job as a fry cook or whatever because of something they post on Facebook, and I think that should be illegal.
 
From their perspective this really is a victory, if they can spin all of the negative stuff that results as "because Obamacare"

At the same time, if I'm a conservative governor I'd want the government to foot the bill on Medicaid because it would give me more room in the state budget to fit tax cuts and corporate giveaways. These guys are cutting their nose off to spite their face. And in a year or two when they finally accept the money, they will have missed 1-2 years of free money. In three years every state (that accepts the expansion) pays 10% of the costs.
 

Jooney

Member
Thats not really true at all. These programs require administrative backing. It would be a nightmare to have a project-based learning program (basically impossible in public schools thanks to standards and standarized tests), a full English Language Learning program, a program that specifically caters to the needs of troubled youth, etc all in the same school. Not to mention that the school environment is just as important.

Want to create a language immersion school? Spanish or Chinese? Good luck doing that in a public school.

I'm wary of any mechanism that diverts funds from the public school system into a private one. While the establishment of schools targeted to meet the needs of certain types of kids may have been the genesis for charter schools, it appears to be quickly morphing to a mechanism to privatise the education sector. For example, 65% of all Michigan charter schools are run by for-profit education organisations; and administrators rake up big fees for managing far few students than their public school counterparts..

I also think statement from public school advocate Diane Ravitch is worrying.

They would help the kids who lacked all motivation and bring these lessons back to public schools to help them. What they have become is competitors. And they're cutthroat competitors. And in fact, because of No Child Left Behind and because of Race to the Top, there is so much emphasis on test scores, that the charters are incentivized to try to get the highest possible scores.

And now that there are so many hedge-fund people involved, they want to win. They want to say to these guys who are on another school board, my charter got higher scores than yours. So if you're going to make scores the be all and the end all of education, you don't want the kids with disabilities. You don't want the kids who don't speak English. You don't want the troublemakers. You don't want the kids with low scores. You want to keep those kids out. And the charters have gotten very good at finding out how to do that.

What once started off as a noble endeavour has been consumed by the chase for the almighty dollar. I'm not saying that charter schools are rubbish, just that people should be concerned in the direction they're going in.
 

Piecake

Member
I'm wary of any mechanism that diverts funds from the public school system into a private one. While the establishment of schools targeted to meet the needs of certain types of kids may have been the genesis for charter schools, it appears to be quickly morphing to a mechanism to privatise the education sector. For example, 65% of all Michigan charter schools are run by for-profit education organisations; and administrators rake up big fees for managing far few students than their public school counterparts..

I also think statement from public school advocate Diane Ravitch is worrying.


What once started off as a noble endeavour has been consumed by the chase for the almighty dollar. I'm not saying that charter schools are rubbish, just that people should be concerned in the direction they're going in.

Well, like I said, it depends on the charter school if it provides a service that public schools don't provide or do poorly at. The goal shouldnt be creating charter schools just to provide school 'choice' and certainly shouldnt be about making money. Hell, I never even knew private charter schools existed. That just seems ridiculous. All charter schools in Minnesota are public.

One of the benefits of charter schools in Minnesota is that they have less governmental regulation so they put less emphasis on standards and standardized tests. Like I said peviously, there are charter schools that base their curriculum around problem-based learning. That really wouldnt be possible in a public school.

Like everything, I guess it all comes down to how you manage and regulate them.
 

Chumly

Member
lol Republicans:



http://www.thewire.com/politics/201...pansion-have-the-worst-of-both-worlds/361065/

So basically, state costs for medicaid will still be going up even in states that refuse the expansion because people have signed up who didn't know they were already eligible for medicaid, but will have no additional help from the federal government AND on top of that, these states will be losing additional money because they'll still be paying all the Obamacare taxes, but not getting anything in return.

Way to sock it to Obama, tea baggers.
And losing job oppurtunities

Anticipating a boost in business from the Affordable Care Act’s Medicaid expansion, Molina Healthcare of Michigan plans to add 337 new jobs in Troy and 125 new jobs in Detroit.

Big surprise people! but when you boost healthcare spending healthcare organizations are going to hire people to meet the demand! Meanwhile people in expansion states are going to have more spending power as well to further boost the economy!
 
I'm pretty sure the people of Wisconsin are overjoyed to have Scott Walker reject the Medicaid expansion in order to improve his conservative credentials for 2016.
 
I'm pretty sure the people of Wisconsin are overjoyed to have Scott Walker reject the Medicaid expansion in order to improve his conservative credentials for 2016.

The dumbjack wanted to cancel the Senior Care program when he was elected (among other things). Its a program that helps fill the gap on prescriptions for seniors that Medicare and private insurance doesn't cover. It is a pretty socialistic program. It costs $30 per year/per person. Thing is because Wisconsin state as a single entity was able to negotiate with the pharmaceuticals, the rates for prescriptions are actually way better then Part D. So its a program that worked at getting better value for the members...AND it makes the state a profit. That's right: the program takes in more money then it pays out, seniors get good rates on prescriptions, and is popular.

...and the only thing that saved that program from the chopping block was that GOP generally doesn't dare piss off seniors otherwise, because its socialist it would have been gone.
 

Piecake

Member
The dumbjack wanted to cancel the Senior Care program when he was elected (among other things). Its a program that helps fill the gap on prescriptions for seniors that Medicare and private insurance doesn't cover. It is a pretty socialistic program. It costs $30 per year/per person. Thing is because Wisconsin state as a single entity was able to negotiate with the pharmaceuticals, the rates for prescriptions are actually way better then Part D. So its a program that worked at getting better value for the members...AND it makes the state a profit. That's right: the program takes in more money then it pays out, seniors get good rates on prescriptions, and is popular.

...and the only thing that saved that program from the chopping block was that GOP generally doesn't dare piss off seniors otherwise, because its socialist it would have been gone.

This is why today's conservatism is a cancer. Instead of actually determining if the policy or program is good or not, they simply base it all on ideology.
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
Black Mamba has already brought this up, but this is misleading. The article is conflating wealth and income because the 1% and 99% was always thought in terms of Wealth, not income that is measured annually.

And it was bullshit when Black Mamba said it, too. The division between the 1% and the 99% has principally--though not exclusively--been treated as a division based on income, not wealth. The results of a quick and easy Google search (perhaps the best medicine for failing memories) support this conclusion:

Here's the Chicago Tribune ("The Internal Revenue Service says that in order to qualify for the 1 percent, you had to have an adjusted gross income of at least $343,927 in 2009. That's using the most recent year's figures available." The article later notes parenthetically the necessary net worth to be among the top 1% in wealth). Here's Barron's ("While the report studies all affluent earning more than $100,000 year, I am only going to zero in on the section of the report dealing exclusively with the top 1%, 390 of the 1,268 surveyed that had more than $450,000 in annual income.") Here's a study by Emmanuel Saez from early 2012 ("Top 1% incomes grew by 11.6% while bottom 99% incomes grew only by 0.2%. Hence, the top 1% captured 93% of the income gains in the first year of recovery. Such an uneven recovery can help explain the recent public demonstrations against inequality.") Here's The Economist ("Occupy Wall Street gets a boost from a new report on income distribution"). And again ("The ultra-rich skew that average upwards: admission to the 1% began at $380,000 in 2008. The Congressional Budget Office puts the cut-off lower, at $347,000 in 2007, or $252,000 after subtracting federal taxes and adding back transfers." They also offer, as an alternative measure, the cut-off for the top 1% by wealth). Here's a Gallup poll from late 2011 ("Politically, the wealthiest 1% of Americans -- those in households earning $500,000 or more annually -- are somewhat to the right of the remaining 99%, but more in terms of party identification than self-professed ideology.") Politico reported on the poll here ("Of the country’s top 1 percent — those in households that earn $500,000 or more annually who the Occupy Wall Street movement has been protesting against — 41 percent identify themselves as independents, while 33 percent say they are Republicans and 26 percent are Democrats.")Here's HuffPo, in a piece entitled, "What The 1% Majored In" ("The New York Times recently endeavored to find what the top 1% of earners majored in while in college. Using information from the Census Bureau's 2010 American Community Survey, they found being a pre-med gave you the best chance of joining the financial cream of the crop. Economics came in second. In a surprise twist, zoology cracked the top 5.") Here's Michael Moore, claiming to live "among the 1%." NBC News understood him to be referring to his income, not net worth. Here's CNN ("Think it takes a million bucks to make it into the Top 1% of American taxpayers? Think again. In 2009, it took just $343,927 to join that elite group, according to newly released statistics from the Internal Revenue Service.") And again, in a follow-up a year later ("It doesn't take a million bucks to get into the top 1%. In fact, it took a little less than $370,000 in adjusted gross income in 2010 to make it into this elite group, according to newly released data from the Internal Revenue Service.") Mother Jones demonstrates its lack of sophistication regarding the difference between income and wealth. California's Metropolitan Transportation Commission certainly seemed to believe that being a member of the "top 1%" was a matter of income, rather than wealth. The New York Times agreed ("The range of wealth in the 1 percent is vast — from households that bring in $380,000 a year, according to census data, up to billionaires like Warren E. Buffett and Bill Gates"). (You might recognize the names of the authors of that article--they're the same two that wrote the article you linked to. Even to them, measuring the "1%" by wealth was an afterthought, as it was with most people who considered the question.) Here, the Grio looks into who make up the "black 1 percent" ("The income cutoff to be a part of the top 1 percent was $646,195"). This Guardian op-ed refers to "the top 1% of income earners," and ties this to Occupy Wall Street's slogan. At Wonkblog, Suzy Khimm wanted to know "Who are the 1 percent?" ("Taken literally, the top 1 percent of American households had a minimum income of $516,633 in 2010"), and Ezra Klein wanted to know "Who are the 99 percent?" ("Let’s be clear. This isn’t really the 99 percent. If you’re in the 85th percentile, for instance, your household is making more than $100,000, and you’re probably doing okay. If you’re in the 95th percentile, your household is making more than $150,000").

I suspect that it was only last night that your memory conveniently failed you and you forgot how the division had always been defined.
Oh, I'm sorry. I didn't realize Occupy Wall Street was targeting John Johnson who won $500k lottery and paid off his $400k in debt and took the first vacation in 10 years and not Chase's CEO who received no wages but took stock in the company he didn't sell, yet.
Your sarcasm is misplaced. The study points out that that's exactly what OWS does when it speaks of the 1% as a monolithic bloc. You can ignore the findings if you want, but the way you're trying to do so is intellectually dishonest. Not to mention supremely obnoxious.
This is fucking bullshit. Just because you get a one time injection of $500k doesn't make you affluent. Nor does a recession causing wall streeters losing lots of money at once (with little to no wages) affecting affecting it matter.
Again, you're missing the point of the article. If it's true that "just because you get a one time injection of $500k doesn't make you affluent," then it's wrong for groups to target "the 1%", because--as the study shows--many of those in that group just "g[o]t a one time injection of $500k."

Your problem should be with OWS and others who take an unsophisticated view of "the 1%," not with the researchers.
income inequality is a long term issue. Defining it by looking solely at one year, which is an arbitrary and in this case useless measurement of time, only confuses the issue.
Have you considered that this may be why the researchers whose article I linked to looked at a ten-year period?
I think serious academic researchers
I think ad hominem arguments make the internet a worse place. What matters is whether their findings are accurate, not what label empty vessel the internet commenter would attach to them personally.
As well, by focusing on these particular metrics, the study (at least as described by this author) seems intent on avoiding scrutiny of the data that would actually tell us something meaningful.
Explain what you mean by the word "meaningful," because I think their findings are plenty "meaningful," given the ordinary understanding of that term.
The ultimate conclusion that the researchers draw, i.e., that "It is clear that the image of a static 1 and 99 percent is largely incorrect" is largely (if by that we mean meaningfully) incorrect.
Explain to me why I would be wrong to think this statement an intentionally dishonest one. It appears to me that you've redefined the terms used by the researchers so as to render their conclusions false.
And as for confusing wealth and income, you should talk to the author of the study about that, since he apparently (wrongly) concludes that the data shows that "rather than being a place of static, income-based social tiers, America is a place where a large majority of people will experience either wealth or poverty — or both — during their lifetimes."
If you search through the links I provided to Piecake above, you'll see that "wealth" is not always used to refer to a person's net worth. You'd have to intentionally misread the article (or be one of Piecake's ordinary New York Times readers) to conclude that the researchers intend to make a statement concerning "net worth" in that sentence.
 

Gruco

Banned
I'm really not a fan of Monte Carlo simulations as a predictor of anything like this. It just doesn't work when every single one of the individual odds changes with a simple move in the national vote. I mean you could have 200 seats from one party with an honest 25% chance to switch to the other side when evaluated individually, but easily end up with nearly every one of those races ending the exact same way. Doing simulations can't really account for that key fact.

It's far more accurate to just line up the the individual odds in order and just straight up use the odds of the candidates around various tipping points to give the odds of those points being hit, assuming any divergences equally affect both sides and cancel each other out.

But graphs! it's so sciencey!
Seriously though, this, and a lot of what Nath Silver does is pretty damn close to misapplication of math, and it's certainly paints the wrong picture in the minds of many of its consumers.
FWIW, I don't think this is an inherent weakness of monte carlo methods. There's no reason you can't estimate some approximation of the covariance matrix and include that in your draws.

That said I'm pretty sure that's not what what Silver's doing.

Also the new 538 is basically the worst thing ever.
 

Chichikov

Member
FWIW, I don't think this is an inherent weakness of monte carlo methods. There's no reason you can't estimate some approximation of the covariance matrix and include that in your draws.

That said I'm pretty sure that's not what what Silver's doing.

Also the new 538 is basically the worst thing ever.
There's noting wrong with monte carlo, it's just a tool to solve these problems. Yeah, I'm not sure what curve are they using and why, but that's not the big issue I have with Silver (and people who employ similar methodology).
The mathematical tool he's using requires that you have predictive odds (in this case that you can infer real odds from past performance of polls) and that the individual odds are independent.
Both of those things are just not true to political polls.

Now don't get me wrong, weighted averaging of opinion polls (which is at the end of the day what he's doing) is a pretty good way to get election predictions, but the numbers he come up for odds of winning are pretty much meaningless and just make him look more authoritative than he actually is.
 

Jooney

Member
So i've read the following statement in The Times article being debated a number of times and I'm still trying to process it:

America is a place where a large majority of people will experience either wealth or poverty — or both — during their lifetimes.

What does this mean? If I take a literalist interpretation of it, it means that Americans:
a) experience wealth and will always be wealthy;
b) experience poverty and will always be poor; or
c) experience both at some point in their lives.

So a "large majority of people" (presumably that means > 50%) will either always be wealthy, always be poor, or experience both at some point in their lives. Where's the 'so what' here? I would expect for any given body of people, the above statement would always be true. Unless I am missing the author's intent here, I believe this statement to be meaningless.

I'm also not sure that viewing the growing disparity in fortunes between the wealthy and the poor solely through the lens of a temporary one-year income distribution is very helpful. Given the increasing accumulation of wealth in the post-GFC recovery years - 95% of all gains went to the wealthiest 1% whilst the bottom 99% saw a 0.4% increase - it would be much more effective to analyse the economic structures in place that not only sustains and builds wealth for those on top, but also makes everyone else tread water. That would be a much more interesting discussion.
 

Jooney

Member
Ugh.

I just saw that affirmative action decision. This Supreme Court disgusts me so in so many ways, and few quite so much as their adherence to the principle of colorblindness.

Never forget:

"The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race".

- Middle-aged white guy #1
Chief Justice John Roberts
 
Good luck trying to win Colorado in two years, pal.

TRENTON, N.J. — New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie repeated his well-known opposition to legalizing marijuana in his state, and sharply criticized one that has done just that — Colorado.

Christie was asked by a caller on his monthly “Ask the Governor” radio program on New Jersey 101.5 about revenue and other business benefits of decriminalizing pot.

Christie responded with a flat out no for his state.

“You say it’s going to come down the road. You know it may come down the road when I’m gone. It’s not going to come while I’m here,” he said.

At town halls, he frequently warns that expanded laws could lead to a “slippery slope” of legalized marijuana, like recently passed laws on recreational use in Colorado and Washington state. He has, however, said that he’s willing to think about legalizing medical marijuana in edible form for patients above the age of 18.

Christie later circled back to the issue on the radio show and expanded on his previous answer, bringing up Colorado on his own.

“For the people who are enamored with the idea with the income, the tax revenue from this, go to Colorado and see if you want to live there,”
the Republican said.

“See if you want to live in a major city in Colorado where there’s head shops popping up on every corner and people flying into your airport just to come and get high. To me, it’s just not the quality of life we want to have here in the state of New Jersey and there’s no tax revenue that’s worth that.”

Although his administration is mired in a political scandal that has helped push down his poll numbers, Christie’s contemplating a presidential run in 2016.

Colorado and its nine electoral votes went blue in the past two presidential elections for Barack Obama.

Christie is chairman of the Republican Governor’s Association. Colorado, however, has a Democratic governor.

KDVR
 

Crisco

Banned
Christie has to be done as a legitimate Presidential candidate right? Without even going into his past to dig up dirt, he's already got more black marks than most previous nominees. Unless they really think they can overshadow it all with Benghazi! Benghazi!
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Christie has to be done as a legitimate Presidential candidate right? Without even going into his past to dig up dirt, he's already got more black marks than most previous nominees. Unless they really think they can overshadow it all with Benghazi! Benghazi!

He never had a real chance. Even without all the scandals he's a dick, he'd be unelectable on that alone.
 
Good luck trying to win Colorado in two years, pal.



KDVR

I'm embarrassed for my state.

Dude is a fucking jackass cunt and I cannot stand him.

NO MONEY FOR TEACHERS BUT WE CAN CUT TAXES!

Fuck off Christie.

If he was really true to his principals he would put it up to a vote for the people to vote on (you know how he wanted the gay marriage thing to go?) but nope.
 
- Middle-aged white guy #1
Chief Justice John Roberts

“The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to speak openly and candidly on the subject of race, and to apply the Constitution with eyes open to the unfortunate effects of centuries of racial discrimination, we ought not sit back and wish away, rather than confront, the racial inequality that exists in our society. It is this view that works harm, by perpetuating the facile notion that what makes race matter is acknowledging the simple truth that race does matter.”

-Wise Latina

Also LOL at Roberts complaining about people calling him racist.

“It is not “out of touch with reality” to conclude that racial preferences may themselves have the debilitating effect of reinforcing precisely that doubt, and—if so—that the preferences do more harm than good, People can disagree in good faith on this issue, but it similarly does more harm than good to question the openness and candor of those on either side of the debate.”
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
FWIW, I don't think this is an inherent weakness of monte carlo methods. There's no reason you can't estimate some approximation of the covariance matrix and include that in your draws.

That said I'm pretty sure that's not what what Silver's doing.

Also the new 538 is basically the worst thing ever.

SIlver's not doing it cause its a dumb way to do it. Washington Post is the one that's doing it.
 
Explain what you mean by the word "meaningful," because I think their findings are plenty "meaningful," given the ordinary understanding of that term.

Their findings as conveyed in the article don't appear to tell us anything about the world that isn't obvious, i.e., that some people inherit money when their parents die, or that some corporate executives who make multiple millions of dollars every year occasionally have a year in which they don't (perhaps because they didn't bother working that year or took a $1 dollar compensation for a year as a penance for crashing the global economy or some such), or that people retire, or that people die. All of this can add up to 12% of people being in the top 1% for at least one year in their lives or people dropping out of the top 1% for a year. (And, again, the top 1% is a political construct. It doesn't actually require extraordinary amounts of income to be in the top 1% of income earners in a given year. The actual intended target of "top 1%" is not the top 1% but the top 0.1 or 0.01% of income earners, i.e., extreme income earners). Maybe the book the authors wrote contains more meaningful information, but if so it raises the question why that information wasn't presented in an article. Instead, the author clearly wanted to tell us that many of us are the "top 1%," which is likely only to confuse people given the lack of any of the above context in the article.

-Wise Latina

Also LOL at Roberts complaining about people calling him racist.

Roberts has a sordid history in the Reagan admin on busing issues. I think he is a true believer in white supremacy, not a naive believer in color blindness.
 
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