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PoliGAF 2014 |OT| Kay Hagan and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad News

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A

Aaron Strife

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Sounds like Dems are fucked. Seems like people have tuned Obama out after six years of a bad economy and random media flare ups/fake scandals. And democrats won't show up to vote either so we'll end up with 7-10 GOP gains in the house and a couple senate seats.
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How do Arkansas and North Carolina look?
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Aaron Strife said:
What does that even mean? Generic ballot polls of a select few states/districts are useless.
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No kidding. Correct me if I'm wrong, but shouldn't a true polling of the most competitive districts come up with a near 50/50 every time, or else you're failing at choosing the most competitive districts. Even if Republicans are positioned to take all but 15 seats, those last 15 seats could still be the most competitive and show up around 50/50.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
http://www.in.gov/activecalendar/Ev...formation_id=201108&type=&syndicate=syndicate


LOL pence, fixing problem's he created!

Expanding the Healthy Indiana Plan will alleviate the coverage gap created by the Affordable Care Act (ACA). While there is no longer a waiting list for the Healthy Indiana Plan, HIP 2.0 also eliminates enrollment limitations in the current program. Also unlike traditional Medicaid, the Healthy Indiana Plan reimburses providers at 100 percent of the higher Medicare rates, ensuring more provider participation and leading to greater access to health care services. HIP 2.0 adds maternity benefits to the Healthy Indiana Plan program and removes annual and lifetime limits.
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D

Drakeon

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Sounds like Dems are fucked. Seems like people have tuned Obama out after six years of a bad economy and random media flare ups/fake scandals. And democrats won't show up to vote either so we'll end up with 7-10 GOP gains in the house and a couple senate seats.
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Don't need Obama if enough democrats follow Pryor's playbook. Of course this mainly works for those congressional republicans who voted for that stupid stupid budget that raised Social Security and Medicare to 70 in 2024 (the name escapes me). The one that was too far to the right of Paul Ryan.

I'm also making the assumption that Pryor's tactic continues to work. Although Maddow made the observation that 2010 might've had a lot to do with Republicans playing up Obamacare's perceived negative effects on Medicare.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
thepotatoman said:
No kidding. Correct me if I'm wrong, but shouldn't a true polling of the most competitive districts come up with a near 50/50 every time, or else you're failing at choosing the most competitive districts. Even if Republicans are positioned to take all but 15 seats, those last 15 seats could still be the most competitive and show up around 50/50.
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Also Senate polling is kind of meaningless because not every state has a Senate election every two years. For example, California and New York don't have a Senate election this year, but a ton of Southern states do. The states where Democrats are winning easily are by like a 60-40 margin, but the safe GOP states will probably break 80-20.
 
G

gcubed

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Sounds like Dems are fucked. Seems like people have tuned Obama out after six years of a bad economy and random media flare ups/fake scandals. And democrats won't show up to vote either so we'll end up with 7-10 GOP gains in the house and a couple senate seats.
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what we really need is to have overseer of the spectacular Wisconsin economy, Scott Walker.
 
A

alstein

Member
Aaron Strife said:
How do Arkansas and North Carolina look?
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Don't know about Arkansas, but NC is pretty much a complete tossup at this point.

Tillis and Hagan both have problems- Tillis is tied into a very unpopular NC legislature, and Hagan has issues with the ACA being bungled in NC (not her fault)
 
C

Crisco

Banned
It's looking more and more that by the time election day gets here, Obamacare as a political issue will be essentially a wash. Regional problems and public perception will still make it a net negative for Democrats, but Republican's who've stuck to a stance of repeal-repeal-repeal will be hurt by it too. Which is most of them.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
Skiptastic said:
Good.
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I agree but the spin is
man_head_spinning_lg_nwm.gif
 
W

Wall

Member
WayneMorse said:
http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpoli...ocrats-aim-for-spot-to-challenge-gop-governor

It seems like overconfidence and the crowded primary are actually having a negative effect on the Dems chances in PA in November.
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Good god no. Even Corbett's base hates him over the Paterno thing (among a laundry list of other issues). He's done. I should make a general post about the congressional/senate polling when I get the time. It's getting a little ridiculous with people trying to extrapolate trends based on extremely limited samples......
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Wall said:
I should make a general post about the congressional/senate polling when I get the time. It's getting a little ridiculous with people trying to extrapolate trends based on extremely limited samples......
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I'd like to hear it, but I do want to note that I wait for about 4 polls pointing in the same direction before making any analysis on it. It's not enough to make a scientific conclusion on it, but I would say it's enough to make a generalized observation.
 
K

KingK

Member
M

Mario

Sidhe / PikPok
KingK said:
Yeah, it's good that the he's expanding the program, but it's disgusting that he's blaming the ACA for the gap in the first place when he caused it directly, and is now trying to paint himself as the one fixing that horrible Obamacare. Better than doing nothing though, I suppose.
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Great political tactic for a grossly misinformed public.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
I think the rabid anti-establishment teanuttery on the right wing is gonna affect the republican voter enthusiasm and subsequently the turnout this november. They are going to sit it out rather than vote for dinosaurs like McConnell. I see a wider rift in the GOP this year. So the congressional advantage for the dems will only increase, especially now that Obamacare "problem" is almost dead in the water.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Aaron Strife said:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-national-house-race

Democrats leading by 3.5% on the congressional generic ballot

If you divvied out a 2% difference in the Dems' favor to every candidate in 2012, Democrats would have 7 more seats today.

But yeah, Democrats are fucked /PD
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I would love that so much. The closer the house gets to 50/50, the more likely Beohner is going to have to decide between giving into the hell no caucus and make the party look terrible, or moving left and start passing things with some democrat votes.
 
T

thefro

Member
KingK said:
Yeah, it's good that the he's expanding the program, but it's disgusting that he's blaming the ACA for the gap in the first place when he caused it directly, and is now trying to paint himself as the one fixing that horrible Obamacare. Better than doing nothing though, I suppose.
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Agree completely. Pretty funny how your priorities change politically once you're no longer in a gerrymandered safe district.
 
G

gcubed

Member
Chris Christie helping himself out with 3 budget shortfalls of 650M, 850M, 800M this year and over the next 2 years and a credit downgrade for New Jersey.

Prime presidential material!
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
gcubed said:
Chris Christie helping himself out with 3 budget shortfalls of 650M, 850M, 800M this year and over the next 2 years and a credit downgrade for New Jersey.

Prime presidential material!
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Its the economists fault tho

that was his excuse for real


The governor said part of the reason for the shortfall is the economists underestimated how much high-income taxpayers would accelerate capital gains, bonuses income and other things to avoid new federal tax increases that took effect in 2013.
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O really?
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
I thought Christie's entire act was being the decider who the buck stopped with, yet every time I look up he's making excuses. You have a budget shortfall because you didn't raise enough revenue. An Econ 101 student could tell you that.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
School choice, private school vouchers, and charter schools. Good idea, or intentially setting up schools that don't get enough support to fail? Go!
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
So Greenwalds is getting blasted by Wikileaks for withholding a country the US is recording every call on because Glenn is convinced it will lead to deaths.

The revolutions always eat their own.

That being said its not hard to figure our a list of 5 or so countries that it could be. And I'm sure they're all ready assuming its them.

Wilsongt said:
School choice, private school vouchers, and charter schools. Good idea, or intentially setting up schools that don't get enough support to fail? Go!
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Neither, a way to profit of public funds and deny democratic accountability.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
APKmetsfan said:
So Greenwalds is getting blasted by Wikileaks for withholding a country the US is recording every call on because Glenn is convinced it will lead to deaths.

The revolutions always eat their own.

That being said its not hard to figure our a list of 5 or so countries that it could be. And I'm sure they're all ready assuming its them.
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link?
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Looks like we've got our Murkowski/Lugar for the 2014 cycle. Two polls today have neoconfederate Chris McDaniel beating Sen. Thad Cochran (one by 4, one by 7) even after McDaniel's campaign was caught secretly videotaping the senator's wife.

Being Mississippi, who knows if McDaniel could lose, but Democrats have an excellent candidate in Travis Childers, who would certainly be the most conservative member of the Senate majority, but a win's a win.

It's starting to feel like 2012 again. All the pundits said Republicans would win the majority, but Democrats won three seats and only lost one. Only lose SD, pick up GA (Nunn was leading again today), KY, MS.
 
W

WayneMorse

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Looks like we've got our Murkowski/Lugar for the 2014 cycle. Two polls today have neoconfederate Chris McDaniel beating Sen. Thad Cochran (one by 4, one by 7) even after McDaniel's campaign was caught secretly videotaping the senator's wife.

Being Mississippi, who knows if McDaniel could lose, but Democrats have an excellent candidate in Travis Childers, who would certainly be the most conservative member of the Senate majority, but a win's a win.

It's starting to feel like 2012 again. All the pundits said Republicans would win the majority, but Democrats won three seats and only lost one. Only lose SD, pick up GA (Nunn was leading again today), KY, MS.
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Georgia and Alaska are having their primaries tomorrow so we should know how tough of election battles Begich and Nunn will be facing.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
The party of doing the exact opposite of the Obama's continues. Fox News alert.

House GOP bill would roll back school lunch rules championed by first lady

House Republicans are taking on school nutritional standards championed by first lady Michelle Obama, proposing to let schools opt out of healthier lunch and breakfast programs if they're losing money.

A GOP spending bill for agriculture and food programs -- which included the provision -- was released Monday.

The House Appropriations Committee said in a release that the waiver language is in response to requests from schools.

The new standards, touted by the first lady, have been phased in over the last two school years, with more changes coming in 2014. The rules set fat, calorie, sugar and sodium limits on foods in the lunch line and beyond.

The first lady was holding a call to rally supporters of the healthier food rules Monday, as a House subcommittee is expected to consider the bill on Tuesday.

While many schools have had success putting the rules in place, others have said the rules are too restrictive and costly. The proposed provision would allow schools to apply for waivers if they have a net loss on school food programs for six months in a row.

The School Nutrition Association, which represents school nutrition directors and companies who sell food to schools, said Monday that schools need more room to make their own decisions.

"School meal programs need more flexibility to plan menus that increase student consumption of healthy choices while limiting waste," said Leah Schmidt, president of the organization.

The School Nutrition Association says that almost half of school meal programs reported declines in revenue in the 2012-13 school year and 90 percent said food costs were up.

Nutrition advocates and other supporters of the rules say it will take some time for schools to adjust and the House proposal is overly broad. Margo Wootan of the Center for Science in the Public Interest says the House Republicans are using a "hacksaw rather than a scalpel" to try and solve problems some schools are having.

Wootan argues that there may be other factors in play such as enrollment or food costs if a lunch program is losing money.

"It's a shame that the House Republicans are taking a step backward and allowing schools to serve more unhealthy food to children," she said.

The House bill would provide money for Agriculture Department programs and Food and Drug Administration programs. A Senate subcommittee was also scheduled to mark up its version of the food and farm spending bill Tuesday but that panel has not yet released its language.
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CHEEZMO™

CHEEZMO™

Obsidian fan
APKmetsfan said:
So Greenwalds is getting blasted by Wikileaks for withholding a country the US is recording every call on because Glenn is convinced it will lead to deaths.

The revolutions always eat their own.

That being said its not hard to figure our a list of 5 or so countries that it could be. And I'm sure they're all ready assuming its them.
Click to expand...

Wikileaks says they'll name it in 72 hours.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
I FUCKING LONG for the day that homosexuality stops becoming a boogy man for anyone who carries a fucking bible.

Florida Lawmaker Says Common Core Will Turn Kids Gay

Common Core standards are a divisive topic in education circles, but one Florida lawmaker is taking his anti-Common Core message to a new level.

State Rep. Charles Van Zant (R) said the American Institutes for Research, which has been assigned to develop Common Core-based tests for Florida, "are promoting as hard as they can, any youth that is interested in the LGBT agenda."

Van Zant made those comments at the Operation Education Conference in Orlando back in March. Video of his comments was posted on ThinkProgress on Monday.

"These people that will now receive $220 million from the state of Florida, unless this is stopped, will promote double-mindedness in state education and will attract every one of your children to become as homosexual as they possibly can," Van Zant said.

Van Zant concluded by telling the crowd, "I’m sorry to report that to you ... I really hate to believe that news, but you need to know."

AIR has pushed back on similar claims.

"We are not an advocacy group," AIR spokesman Larry McQuillan told PolitiFact in March. "AIR is a non-partisan, not-for-profit organization. We do educational assessment, research, health policy research and communication, and international development. We have supported many states by providing high-quality assessments of their specific state standards."
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K

KtSlime

Member
APKmetsfan said:
So Greenwalds is getting blasted by Wikileaks for withholding a country the US is recording every call on because Glenn is convinced it will lead to deaths.

The revolutions always eat their own.

That being said its not hard to figure our a list of 5 or so countries that it could be. And I'm sure they're all ready assuming its them.


Neither, a way to profit of public funds and deny democratic accountability.
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You sound positively giddy.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
WayneMorse said:
Georgia and Alaska are having their primaries tomorrow so we should know how tough of election battles Begich and Nunn will be facing.
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One of the republicans (Joe Miller) said he might run as an independent in Alaska if he loses the primary, which would be to Begich's benefit. All of the GOPers are pretty weak there though and there are referendums on pot, minimum wage, and an environmentalist thing that should boost Dem turnout. I think Begich is one of the safer red state Democrats.

Georgia... I'm hoping Handel wins the primary. She seems to be the weakest contender, besides Broun and Gingrey who are devouring each other's support. But I think Nunn is a great candidate. It's getting over 50% on election night that's going to be tough.
 
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