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PoliGAF 2014 |OT| Kay Hagan and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad News

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B

Bagels

You got Moxie, kid!
My brother is a lawyer in Indianapolis. Apparently Judge Posner, who wrote the opinion for the 7th circuit in the Indiana and Wisconsin same-sex marriage cases, is a legend. The full opinion is absolutely worth a read. It's awesome:


At oral argument the state‘s lawyer was asked whether “Indiana’s law is about successfully raising children,” and since “you agree same-sex couples can successfully raise children, why shouldn’t the ban be lifted as to them?” The lawyer answered that “the assumption is that with opposite-sex couples there is very little thought given during the sexual act, sometimes, to whether babies may be a consequence.” In other words, Indiana’s government thinks that straight couples tend to be sexually irresponsible, producing unwanted children by the carload, and so must be pressured (in the form of governmental encouragement of marriage through a combination of sticks and carrots) to marry, but that gay couples, unable as they are to produce children wanted or unwanted, are model parents—model citizens really—so have no need for marriage. Heterosexuals get drunk and pregnant, producing unwanted children; their reward is to be allowed to marry. Homosexual couples do not produce unwanted children; their reward is to be denied the right to marry. Go figure.
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benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
To be honest, if there was any Conservative Talk Radio Pundit I'd most like to spend time with talking about anything but current politics, it'd be Savage/Weiner. He's actually a really fascinating guy with an interesting background.

Actually, to be fair, his insane walking the line of blatant racism rants are the best on talk radio too. Mark Levin's voice hurts too much.

Rush Limbaugh would probably be my second choice as I've read from multiple sources that he treats people to epic dinners, drops massive tips and then shows off crazy stuff he owns. Though I wouldn't particularly wish to discuss the NFL...

Bagels said:
My brother is a lawyer in Indianapolis. Apparently Judge Posner, who wrote the opinion for the 7th circuit in the Indiana and Wisconsin same-sex marriage cases, is a legend. The full opinion is absolutely worth a read. It's awesome:
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Posner is definitely one of the big guys in law, partly because he writes endlessly which is how Holmes got so famous. He supports legalizing a number of drugs though which is why he's never getting to the Supreme Court.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Aaron Strife said:
senatemap_zps4731cda8.jpg


This is what I'm sticking with. Hoping I'm wrong about Kentucky and Georgia. The only two I'm not particularly confident about are Arkansas (which has narrowed considerably but I think Pryor will win) and Louisiana (which will probably go to a runoff and anything could happen - but if Democrats have a solid majority, Landrieu will be supported by oil & gas in the state).

Oh and

phoenixdark_zps143612ac.jpg
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The crayon map out already? Feeling confident, eh?
 
A

alstein

Member
benjipwns said:
Why not just push everyone into the individual exchanges so their employer is irrelevant to their insurance?
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This is my suggestion as well, though it would be political suicide, and really bad in those states like NC where they actively sabotage the exchanges
 
W

WayneMorse

Banned
I was skeptical of the summer's jobs reports because I assumed that the winter contracted and slowed the economy so much that there would have to be some sort of correction in the spring and summer.

Looks like that's true.
 
T

Treechopper

Member
Wilsongt said:
Congression recess time during an election year is GOLDEN.
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I apologize for bringing up an article from the last page as I understand this group moves at a quick pace, but can somebody tell some concrete moves we can be making to help these people?

I think it's terrible to be sending people back, but is it not true that we would be putting a huge strain on our economy and services by taking in everybody?
 
K

KingGondo

Banned
Treechopper said:
I apologize for bringing up an article from the last page as I understand this group moves at a quick pace, but can somebody tell some concrete moves we can be making to help these people?

I think it's terrible to be sending people back, but is it not true that we would be putting a huge strain on our economy and services by taking in everybody?
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We should treat it like the humanitarian refugee crisis that it is and helping these people to the best of our ability. Set up camps, housing, and provide necessities to these people. Do our best to reunite them with family already in the US or provide for foster care if the situation in their home country is too dangerous.

The US Government has vast resources and vast power to help these people if they would simply choose to use it.
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
Wow, Deadmeat reference.

I'm probably getting the details wrong, but Deadmeat was (is?) a poster on the gaming side who had some very strong technical opinions on graphics which were usually wrong.

He posted here in the early, early days, like pre-2000 I think.

Yes, I've been on GAF that long.
 
T

Treechopper

Member
KingGondo said:
We should treat it like the humanitarian refugee crisis that it is and helping these people to the best of our ability. Set up camps, housing, and provide necessities to these people. Do our best to reunite them with family already in the US or provide for foster care if the situation in their home country is too dangerous.

The US Government has vast resources and vast power to help these people if they would simply choose to use it.
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Why has the message for this issue not turned into that then? (That was horrible grammar)

First, "vast resources" implies that we have large sums of money we don't know what to do with or are being used in a highly ineffective manner. I think both sides can agree that we're using at least some of our budget in a poor way, but is there enough to allocate to the situation at hand? If so, where should it come from?

Second, if the messaging towards the border issue is changed into one of a humanitarian issue, would that not bolster more support from people ignorant of the situation? What I hear around me (Texas) is the idea that we need to help our own. Wouldn't a message shift change the line of thinking to we need to help our neighbors? Nobody wants to vote against that.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
Obama is really good at killing terrorists.
How long does bagdadhi have left?

Treechopper said:
Why has the message for this issue not turned into that then? (That was horrible grammar)

First, "vast resources" implies that we have large sums of money we don't know what to do with or are being used in a highly ineffective manner. I think both sides can agree that we're using at least some of our budget in a poor way, but is there enough to allocate to the situation at hand? If so, where should it come from?

Second, if the messaging towards the border issue is changed into one of a humanitarian issue, would that not bolster more support from people ignorant of the situation? What I hear around me (Texas) is the idea that we need to help our own. Wouldn't a message shift change the line of thinking to we need to help our neighbors? Nobody wants to vote against that.
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People don't want to believe its a humanitarian crisis. People will just say its not.
 
Metaphoreus

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
Ignatz Mouse said:
Wow, Deadmeat reference.

I'm probably getting the details wrong, but Deadmeat was (is?) a poster on the gaming side who had some very strong technical opinions on graphics which were usually wrong.

He posted here in the early, early days, like pre-2000 I think.

Yes, I've been on GAF that long.
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B-Dubs said:
Both refrences are the same.
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Thanks for the info.

Diablos, I'm astonished that you think the D.C. Circuit deciding to rehear Halbig somehow disproves or is contrary to my arguments. Maybe I wasn't clear enough and you need me to reiterate my arguments?
 
C

Crisco

Banned
APKmetsfan said:
Obama is really good at killing terrorists.
How long does bagdadhi have left?


People don't want to believe its a humanitarian crisis. People will just say its not.
Click to expand...

Speaking of which, Pentagon just confirmed that "Africa's Bin Laden" was indeed killed by an airstrike in Somalia earlier this week.
 
T

Treechopper

Member
APKmetsfan said:
People don't want to believe its a humanitarian crisis. People will just say its not.
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Which would bring us back to square one.

But wouldn't the people believing this be the conservative, red state voters you've already lost? It seems like it would be a push into swaying the moderate voters that don't want to be associated with those opposing humanitarian aid.
 
A

AndyD

aka andydumi
Treechopper said:
Why has the message for this issue not turned into that then? (That was horrible grammar)

First, "vast resources" implies that we have large sums of money we don't know what to do with or are being used in a highly ineffective manner. I think both sides can agree that we're using at least some of our budget in a poor way, but is there enough to allocate to the situation at hand? If so, where should it come from?

Second, if the messaging towards the border issue is changed into one of a humanitarian issue, would that not bolster more support from people ignorant of the situation? What I hear around me (Texas) is the idea that we need to help our own. Wouldn't a message shift change the line of thinking to we need to help our neighbors? Nobody wants to vote against that.
Click to expand...

Many argue that a lot of the money being spent on militarizing the border (which is a lot) could be put to much better use helping these "refugees". The thing is that sending them back is not a permanent solution, as many of the children interviewed say this is not the first attempt at this. And a good amount of the money spent on these attempts actually comes from their families in the US.

So by focusing on legalization of their families who are already here, then on reuniting these families, you both get to keep income earned here spent here, and you reduce the need for infinitely recurring spending on the border.

Is it perfect and easy? No. But it seems far better than the revolving buses and flights we do now.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
What a scumbag.

Conservative blogger and author Erick Erickson said Thursday that some minimum wage workers have simply “failed at life.”

Erickson made the comment while guest hosting for Rush Limbaugh‘s radio program.

“The minimum wage is mostly people who failed at life and high school kids,” Erickson said. “Seriously, look. I don’t mean to be ugly with you people. … If you’re a 30-something-year-old person and you’re making minimum wage you probably failed at life.”
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K

KingGondo

Banned
Treechopper said:
First, "vast resources" implies that we have large sums of money we don't know what to do with or are being used in a highly ineffective manner. I think both sides can agree that we're using at least some of our budget in a poor way, but is there enough to allocate to the situation at hand? If so, where should it come from?
Click to expand...
The US is the richest country in the history of the world. If Jordan and Turkey can handle hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees, I'd like to think we can handle tens of thousands of kids/adolescents who are fleeing violence and poverty.

Second, if the messaging towards the border issue is changed into one of a humanitarian issue, would that not bolster more support from people ignorant of the situation? What I hear around me (Texas) is the idea that we need to help our own. Wouldn't a message shift change the line of thinking to we need to help our neighbors? Nobody wants to vote against that.
Click to expand...
Nor should they want to vote against that. But all people hear are scary stories about Ebola-carrying drug cartel members trying to leech off the system.

As to the bolded part, we already do a pretty shitty job of helping "our own," and when people hear "our own" most people think of those of the same race or of a similar socioeconomic class.

It's deflection, honestly. There's a humane and costly option (foreign aid to improve conditions in Central America along with reasonable accommodations to the refugees), and there's an inhumane and still costly option (repeated deportation as the humanitarian crisis worsens and we have to seriously deal with the problem at a later date).
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Obamacare' a death spiral!!!!!!!

http://www.vox.com/2014/9/5/6108493/obamacare-premiums-lower-2015


Or as Krugman's called it today "life spiral."

Seriously, conservatives couldn't have been more wrong about the ACA. It's beating out even CBO projections as well as independent favorable projections and making the conservatives look foolish. Not that it will stop hacks like Avik Roy.

Remember the days when people here were worried because of the website? Those were the days...
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
Black Mamba said:
Obamacare' a death spiral!!!!!!!

http://www.vox.com/2014/9/5/6108493/obamacare-premiums-lower-2015


Or as Krugman's called it today "life spiral."

Seriously, conservatives couldn't have been more wrong about the ACA. It's beating out even CBO projections as well as independent favorable projections and making the conservatives look foolish. Not that it will stop hacks like Avik Roy.

Remember the days when people here were worried because of the website? Those were the days...
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Don't worry. We still gotta make it through the Republican wave in the senate in November where they will try a record number of times to gut the law. Then, the super major Republican wave in 2016 where they repeal it and replace it with privatizes social security, vouchers, and all of that jazz.

You know, because it's what the people want and it's best for them.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Black Mamba said:
Obamacare' a death spiral!!!!!!!

http://www.vox.com/2014/9/5/6108493/obamacare-premiums-lower-2015


Or as Krugman's called it today "life spiral."

Seriously, conservatives couldn't have been more wrong about the ACA. It's beating out even CBO projections as well as independent favorable projections and making the conservatives look foolish. Not that it will stop hacks like Avik Roy.

Remember the days when people here were worried because of the website? Those were the days...
Click to expand...
So Obama saved Medicare, got it
 
C

Crisco

Banned
Black Mamba said:
Obamacare' a death spiral!!!!!!!

http://www.vox.com/2014/9/5/6108493/obamacare-premiums-lower-2015


Or as Krugman's called it today "life spiral."

Seriously, conservatives couldn't have been more wrong about the ACA. It's beating out even CBO projections as well as independent favorable projections and making the conservatives look foolish. Not that it will stop hacks like Avik Roy.

Remember the days when people here were worried because of the website? Those were the days...
Click to expand...

Who'd a thunk, the economists and scientists who actually wrote the fucking thing knew better than politicians talking about it. Democrats need to start mercilessly bashing every Republican whoever said anything bad about the law.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
APKmetsfan said:
In arkansas? With the candidates? Without a presidential election? In the precincts that matter?

They're not just striping them out willy nilly. And its all the more reason to get out the vote
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GOTV is important yes but the media's obsession with likely voter screens is stupid and often leads to Republican leans in polling

The way PPP does it is the best - asking people at the beginning if they're likely to vote in the upcoming election. That's all you need, if someone has enough time to take a poll over the phone they're probably already engaged.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Ugh those job numbers. :/

They even revised June's numbers down by 30k.

Guess we're finally feeling the effects of Obummer's job killing tax hikes and Obamacare.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Black turnout's been rising every midterm election. Dunno why that would stop now.
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You still don't understand...

Midterms break down state by state, candidate by candidate. Black turnout may be rising in midterms when measured nationally, but does that mean black turnout is rising in North Carolina? Arkansas? Louisiana? Michigan? IE the states that will decide who wins the senate, as well as which party manages to lose the least amount of seats in the House. And even if it were rising in those states, will it translate to people coming out to vote for those candidates? Are black people excited about Mark Pryor?

The problem for democrats is that a lot of these states have high black, youth, and Hispanic unemployment rates. NC especially. Which is why democrats are talking about impeachment nonstop, and why Al Sharpton literally talks about it every hour on his radio show every day (my mom is an avid listener of his). Impeachment talk fires up the base, specifically black voters who feel Obama is being mistreated, and the hope is that they come out and support democrats. This may work to a degree but ultimately this is year 6 and democrats still can't motivate their base with any actual accomplishments. You've got states like Kentucky where HALF the uninsured are now covered yet Grimes won't talk about Obamacare, and voters are leaning McConnell's way despite his blatant calls for full repeal.

In short, that's why I think democrats are in trouble. The base is hurting, and probably disillusioned after 6 years of this shit.
 
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