I just can't think of a specific instance in modern American politics where there was this much of a turn in one election that would buck all known fundamentals.
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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
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I just can't think of a specific instance in modern American politics where there was this much of a turn in one election that would buck all known fundamentals.
jamesinclair
Banned
2008 -> 2010
There are maybe some known fundamentals there.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Bush has to be the weakest "front runner" in modern history.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
George Wallace in the 1976 Democratic primary was pretty weak for a front runner with bad polling numbers and a racist history. I think 10 democrats ended up running in that one. And Democrats probably wouldn't have had a chance in the general if not for Watergate.
Yellowtail
Member
This will make the GOP sweat. Clinton is within the margin of error in AZ against all Republicans except Paul and Christie (?!):
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/05/clinton-close-to-most-republicans-in-arizona.html
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/05/clinton-close-to-most-republicans-in-arizona.html
They got these scandals out early, she didn't freak out when addressing them, and now the circus on the other side is ready to shift to the next gear. I'm pissed/annoyed at her over this stuff, but seems like it's gone well for her thus far, I'd say.
Of course, numbing the public to cries of "CLINTON SCANDAL!" for two decades has its consequences..
Of course, numbing the public to cries of "CLINTON SCANDAL!" for two decades has its consequences..
See Christie, someone still likes you!
BertramCooper
Banned
If Walker wins the nomination, I hope he puts his dumb federal right-to-work plan front-and -center.
Good luck winning Ohio with that shit, dude.
Good luck winning Ohio with that shit, dude.
Yellowtail
Member
He's also talking about curbing legal immigration while Clinton is for a path to citizenship.
How low can the GOP Latino vote go?
How low can the GOP Latino vote go?
Sinema, now is your chance! Fly!
That's what I'm thinking. Ohio is all but gone for the GOP if he's the nominee.
It reminds me of Romney bashing the auto bailout, thus crippling his chances in the Midwest: another case of a GOP candidate selling his general election chances for a better shot at the nomination.
Edit:
This, the immigration stances, reactions to the pending marriage ruling.. this kind of stuff is going to keep on drip drip dripping into the public's political consciousness. It's a poisonous road.
StopMakingSense
Member
Oh man the primary is going to be U G L Y
BertramCooper
Banned
I'm really starting to hedge my prediction about Bush winning.
He's polling so low that even with his boatloads of money, it might not be enough.
I'm starting to think that the GOP truly could end up nominating a really far-right candidate.
He's polling so low that even with his boatloads of money, it might not be enough.
I'm starting to think that the GOP truly could end up nominating a really far-right candidate.
Me too. And I don't know who that is?
BertramCooper
Banned
I think it'll be Walker or Rubio, more likely Walker (again -- primary schedule is not kind to Rubio or Jeb). Rubio could get VP, I suppose.
I would need to see more evidence that Cruz is polling well enough in other places outside of New Hampshire before I believe he's a serious contender.
Yellowtail
Member
If Bush continues to poll poorly in primary and election matchups I can see the establishment bolting for Rubio. He's already eating up Bush's support among moderates in primary states judging by crosstabs.
Walker is a disaster in waiting and it won't be long before the party heads realize that, but he's ahead in IA and NH (nominees in modern times have always won one but not both) and could play well in the southern primary. By then it may be too late for anyone else to have the momentum to win.
And remember Sanders will make the NH Democratic primary competitive, and a lot of independents now have reason to vote in that instead of the GOP primary, which will only help a Republican hardliner.
Walker is a disaster in waiting and it won't be long before the party heads realize that, but he's ahead in IA and NH (nominees in modern times have always won one but not both) and could play well in the southern primary. By then it may be too late for anyone else to have the momentum to win.
And remember Sanders will make the NH Democratic primary competitive, and a lot of independents now have reason to vote in that instead of the GOP primary, which will only help a Republican hardliner.
BertramCooper
Banned
I'd also predict Walker over Rubio.
Again, I just can't see the party base forgiving Rubio for the immigration stuff.
Again, I just can't see the party base forgiving Rubio for the immigration stuff.
Idunno, I have the impression that Cruz literally views himself as a messianic figure ordained by God to be president. Winning the nomination would only embolden him.
BertramCooper
Banned
I can't see him as anything but a sociopathic con artist.
He's so unbelievably cynical in his political maneuvering. I don't buy that he ever wants to be in a true position of power. He's already doomed himself to a career of complete marginalization in the Senate and he's only been there two fucking years.
AZ turning purple - like, 2 Presidential elections ahead of schedule, should frighten the shit out of the GOP. Hopefully it doesn't and they continue on their path, fooling themselves every midterm election that things are going to get better for them; continually missing the forest for the trees.
In a way I feel kind of bad for Cruz. It seems pretty clear that he was indoctrinated into the person he is by his father, what with sending him to crazy freedom and liberty classes as a kid, etc.
Yup, that's sort of how the scenario plays out in my head.
This is a large contributing factor to the messianic complex vibe he gives me.
His wife is supposed to be super nice and pragmatic. It's all very odd.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Bush's plan is very Guilanni-esque. But perhaps it makes more sense this time because the post-March primaries are winner take all.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...7c50db0_story.html?postshare=7501430933944398
Aaron Strife
Banned
I think Clinton's strength as a candidate will push several red states into purple territory ahead of schedule. AZ and GA are getting closer due to demographics (same reason as NC and VA) while IN and MO are actually trending away from Democrats, but could still be competitive for another cycle.
The real danger is that the GOP no longer has a solid grip on Ohio, Florida, North Carolina or Virginia which makes victory impossible except in best case scenarios. Particularly because Democrats still have a path to victory even without those four.
Indiana actually trended more Democratic in the Cook PVI from 2008 to 2012, but I'm guessing that's because of the 2008 anomaly.
You also have Montana and Alaska drifting leftward.
Macho Madness
Member
Don't worry friends, 2012 runner-up Santorum will save the day.
Fenderputty
Banned
I hope Jeb doesn't make it past the primaries like I predicted. The general election is basically un-winnable for the GOP with a far right nutter getting on the ticket.
BertramCooper
Banned
"We win when we nominate a TRUE conservative!"
Poodlestrike
Banned
The best part of this narrative is that it's self-fulfilling. If Walker runs and loses, then clearly it's because he wasn't conservative enough, and the base only solidifies in its convictions.
BertramCooper
Banned
I love how they can't even fathom that nominating a "true conservative" means they'll end up losing worse, not winning.
I'd feel bad for these idiots if they weren't such hateful, miserable people.
I don't see how this could be - who is more of a cookie cutter "true conservative" than Scott Walker at this point?
Macho Madness
Member
Yep. The rhetoric post Romney loss was "too moderate" to win.
Which always begs the question, who the hell else were the conservative base going to vote for? Obama?
Which always begs the question, who the hell else were the conservative base going to vote for? Obama?
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Poodlestrike
Banned
Oh, I'm sure there's somebody out there that publically subscribes to an even more hardline conservative rhetoric than Walker. What's Bachmann up to these days?
Itsa me, Mario!
Tonight onna the Mario Factor we gonna talk abouta Bowser sending 10,000 koopa troopas to annexa the choco peninsula onna Yoshi's Island. Mama Mia!
But firsta, we gonna hava Luigi give us the latest developments onna the hyperinflation ofa the coins.
BertramCooper
Banned
Still fighting ethics investigations, I hope.
Fenderputty
Banned
At this point I'm thinking the GOP is just praying they can pull off a miracle nationally while being content with their gains during the local midterms. I have a hard time thinking they don't realize their extreme right policies aren't electable nationally. They said as much right after they lost the last election and then doubled down on the hard right policy anyway.
I think they're forced into this position by the way. Mostly by their own hand. They created the tea party monster that forced everyone locally to shift further to the right. I feel like the establishment would like a return to a more moderate climate, they just have no fucking clue how to get there. Can't undo what's been done.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I think Walker becoming the nominee and losing would be the best thing to happen to the current GOP in the long run. I have no doubt they'd try, but it would be much harder to make the "He wasn't conservative enough!" accusation stick with someone whose entire career has been the poster boy for all hard right policies
If Bush was the nominee and lost that tells them nothing - they can just blame it on him being a Bush.
If Bush was the nominee and lost that tells them nothing - they can just blame it on him being a Bush.
Yellowtail
Member
Honestly the best thing for the GOP establishment at this point is to just let the party nominate a Cruz/Walker ticket so it can lose in a landslide and show the "true conservative" strategy is completely nuts.
The worst thing would be for Jeb to lose all the early primary states and then barely clinch the nomination by winning the winner-takes-all blue states and then go on to lose in the general. There'd be all out mutiny.
The worst thing would be for Jeb to lose all the early primary states and then barely clinch the nomination by winning the winner-takes-all blue states and then go on to lose in the general. There'd be all out mutiny.
BertramCooper
Banned
After 2012, when pretty much everyone in the party, including leadership, was completely convinced that the presidential election was in the bag, I hesitate to make any sort of guess as to what the party thinks about their chances in 2016.
JesseEwiak
Member
He once said nice things about immigration reform.
Believe me, if you trawl the various right wing comment boards or forums like The National Review, RedState, everybodies a sellout mushy moderate if they even once talk practically about what they can accomplish, even if they're throwing red meat out the other 99% of the time. Even Ted Cruz.
Remember, the base of the GOP firmly believes that Obama won another election as a full throated socialist, so only a full throated "true" conservative can win by getting out the vote of all those mythical (white) conservative voters who didn't vote in 2012.
Hell, I've seen people say that instead of trying to get a larger vote among minorities, they should double down on the white vote and try to scare enough white moderates who voted for Obama with things like Ferguson, Baltimore, and the random 'illegal immigrant drives drunk and kills a pretty white girl' stories out there to convince those white moderates that the DNC is in the tank for "minority special interest" groups.
Fenderputty
Banned
Yeah but that out of nowhere loss should have been their wake-up call. And it was for all of about a week when Karl Rove was begging the GOP to rethink their stances on immigration. Then talk radio and conserva-media stepped up their game and postulated that the real reason was that Romney wasn't right enough. The tea party members clung onto that message and forced everyone further right again for the midterms in 2014. Now, here we are entering another primary for the POTUS and the GOP has done nothing but dig it's heels in.
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