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[Plinko]

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/06/1...and-the-fate-of-the-union.html?_r=1&referrer=

But people keep telling me he's a viable candidate!

The guy is a trainwreck. He has a terrible record. He melts down when he gets into the spotlight. Most people don't even know who he is at this point. He has almost no chance and the nomination.

 

[NeoXChaos]

But people keep telling me he's a viable candidate!

The guy is a trainwreck. He has a terrible record. He melts down when he gets into the spotlight. Most people don't even know who he is at this point. He has almost no chance and the nomination.

Talented enough to get elected, survive a recall and reelected. Dont underestimate him.

 

[Grexeno]

Talented enough to get elected, survive a recall and reelected. Dont underestimate him.

All in presidential midterm years with significantly depressed Democratic turnout.

 

[Sirpopopop]

But people keep telling me he's a viable candidate!

The guy is a trainwreck. He has a terrible record. He melts down when he gets into the spotlight. Most people don't even know who he is at this point. He has almost no chance and the nomination.

People want to believe what Scott Walker is selling.

He's going to win the nomination. I'm willing to do a bet on it. I'm not saying he will win the election, but he's my favorite to win the Republican nomination.

 

[Plinko]

People want to believe what Scott Walker is selling.

He's going to win the nomination. I'm willing to do a bet on it. I'm not saying he will win the election, but he's my favorite to win the Republican nomination.

Rubio has a far better shot, I believe.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Talented enough to get elected, survive a recall and reelected. Dont underestimate him.

The best explanation for Walker's success I've seen is that he's great at maximizing resentment from working class whites. People who don't like their taxes going to liberal colleges to begin with. Given the Republican base that may work for him in the primary but it makes for a terrible general election candidate.

 

[Avon Barksdale]

The Iowa Straw Poll has been canceled.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Talented enough to get elected, survive a recall and reelected. Dont underestimate him.

Unions will be mobilized like never before, and its not gonna be one state (His divide and conquer strategy only works once, Unions got the message and they've realized they've got to be united). You're gonna have so many people pour in from NY, NJ, IL, CA to those swing states to tell horror stories and really pitch him as a friend of oligarchs.

I mean walker getting the nomination is going to mobilize the greatest liberal grassroots movement in a generation (the raw numbers might even rival something like the civil rights or anti-vietnam protests). I'm serious. People will flood in. Walker presidency is the end of unions and their power.

 

[HylianTom]

Unions will be mobilized like never before, and its not gonna be one state (His divide and conquer strategy only works once, Unions got the message and they've realized they've got to be united). You're gonna have so many people poor in from NY, NJ, IL, CA to those swing states to tell horror stories and really pitch him as a friend of oligarchs.

Yup. He'll need to have Kasich or someone else from Ohio on the ticket to have a shot at that state.. And then he'd be leaving himself vulnerable in Florida and elsewhere.

God, please let it be Walker. He seems like he'd be great comedic material.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Yup. He'll need to have Kasich or someone else from Ohio on the ticket to have a shot at that state.. And then he'd be leaving himself vulnerable in Florida and elsewhere.

God, please let it be Walker. He seems like he'd be great comedic material.

I really like to see walker get crushed by labor but I'm so scared if it fails and working people are royally fucked for a generation. It seriously would mean one of the final confirmations that democracy has no place in this country's goverance

 

[AnotherNils]

Walker's early poll numbers terrify me. I thought they'd at least dip as people slowly looks into him.

Then I remembered that Santorum won several states but never sniffed the nomination. So I can only hope this is the same deal. Only problem is Jeb isn't being the front runner he's supposed to be.

 

[demon]

Talented enough to get elected, survive a recall and reelected. Dont underestimate him.

Meh. He won in the tea party-wave midterm election against a weak ass opponent, won the recall against the same weak-ass opponent with roughly the same numbers, and won again in a midterm election against a Democrat nobody was really passionate about. Plus he has a pretty horrible and extremist track record that will be a huge turnoff on the national stage. Don't overestimate him.

Whatever Democrat he would go up against in a presidential election would really have to fuck up to lose against Walker. On top of all the other problems the Republican party has getting into the White House, Walker hardly has a chance.

 

[FiggyCal]

I'm already on a 40 dollar bet that Scott walker will get the nomination.

 

[TacticalFox88]

I'm already on a 40 dollar bet that Scott walker will get the nomination.

It's either him or Bush.

Everyone else is there for entertainment

 

[PhoenixDark]

Walker could beat Bernie Sanders, probably Martin O'Malley too. But I can't see him beating Hillary.

I've been arguing he'll be the nominee for awhile now. He has made some mistakes early on but who hasn't thus far? And unlike the rest of the field, he actually has a record to run on. Not just "I fought against Obama on x...and he still did x" posturing like the senators in this primary field. Walker's legislative record is a conservative's dream. He has cut taxes, destroyed unions, gutted public education, restricted voter rights, etc.

He doesn't greatly offend any of the GOP's three ideological pillars. I think it's pretty clear Bush's "moderate" game isn't going to work. The party won't let Paul come close to the nomination. Rubio could win but I think all the senators are at a disadvantage in this primary. Cruz will flame out, but not before taking others down with him.

Walker Rubio, count on it.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Walker is a conservatives wet dream. He has fought everything a progressive loves and has despite the opposition survived time after time. Turnout among conservatives if he is the nominee will certainly be high. He may be a talking controversy but after the primary, he will have all that cleaned up. The country is desperate for a new direction. He is going to tap into that sentiment.

final confirmations that democracy has no place in this country's goverance

We still have a democracy. What is worrying you that we won't in the future?

 

[FiggyCal]

Walker is a conservatives wet dream. He has fought everything a progressive loves and has despite the opposition survived time after time. Turnout among conservatives if he is the nominee will certainly be high. He may be a talking controversy but after the primary, he will have all that cleaned up. The country is desperate for a new direction. He is going to tap into that sentiment.



We still have a democracy. What is worrying you that we won't in the future?

There was that one study that showed that a policy with no support from the public has just as much chance going through as one with overwhelming support from the public.

Edit: not what the study said. My memory is awful. But this was the one I was thinking of:http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/civil-rights/214857-who-rules-america

 

[Plinko]

Walker's early poll numbers terrify me. I thought they'd at least dip as people slowly looks into him.

Then I remembered that Santorum won several states but never sniffed the nomination. So I can only hope this is the same deal. Only problem is Jeb isn't being the front runner he's supposed to be.

They already have dipped and people still haven't really gotten a glimpse of who he is.

 

[demon]

Walker could beat Bernie Sanders, probably Martin O'Malley too. But I can't see him beating Hillary.

I've been arguing he'll be the nominee for awhile now. He has made some mistakes early on but who hasn't thus far? And unlike the rest of the field, he actually has a record to run on. Not just "I fought against Obama on x...and he still did x" posturing like the senators in this primary field. Walker's legislative record is a conservative's dream. He has cut taxes, destroyed unions, gutted public education, restricted voter rights, etc.

He doesn't greatly offend any of the GOP's three ideological pillars. I think it's pretty clear Bush's "moderate" game isn't going to work. The party won't let Paul come close to the nomination. Rubio could win but I think all the senators are at a disadvantage in this primary. Cruz will flame out, but not before taking others down with him.

Walker Rubio, count on it.

And a liberal's nightmare. He's going to turn off moderates and drive liberals to the polls in droves. He barely won Wisconsin in midterm elections against really weak opponents. He's not beating anyone semi-competent and already popular on the national stage.

The fact that Bush No. 3 and Walker are the best the Republican party are able to come up with is bad news for them.

 

[NeoXChaos]

And a liberal's nightmare. He's going to turn off moderates and drive liberals to the polls in droves. He barely won Wisconsin in midterm elections against really weak opponents. He's not beating anyone semi-competent and already popular on the national stage.

The fact that Bush No. 3 and Walker are the best the Republican party are able to come up with is bad news for them.

Liberals had 3 chances to be driven to the polls in droves against him in WI and all 3 attempts failed. Bernie Sanders would be a nightmare to the conservative right and the middle of America/moderates. Walker is going to hit the reset button when he wins and look moderate in the general election.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Liberals had 3 chances to be driven to the polls in droves against him in WI and all 3 attempts failed. Bernie Sanders would be a nightmare to the conservative right and the middle of America/moderates. Walker is going to hit the reset button when he wins and look moderate in the general election.

Well there's a 99% chance Sanders won't be the nominee (higher, even) so I don't think you need to worry about that.

Walker's entire mojo is that he's a champion of the far right. He'll try, and the media will abet him, but I highly doubt he'll be able to position himself as a "moderate" the way McCain and Romney did. Which even they weren't entirely successful at, seeing as how Obama won moderates easily both times even though the election was framed as Moderate Republican vs. Liberal Democrat. Americans are more liberal than a lot of them like to believe.

(Interestingly Romney won independents by 5, leading me to believe self-professed ideology is more important than party ID)

 

[PhoenixDark]

TAA going down big time in the House. Good. Is Obama capable of effectively selling anything lol?

 

[ivysaur12]

Liberals had 3 chances to be driven to the polls in droves against him in WI and all 3 attempts failed. Bernie Sanders would be a nightmare to the conservative right and the middle of America/moderates. Walker is going to hit the reset button when he wins and look moderate in the general election.

Please point me to the statewide election he won in Wisconsin with a presidential turnout electorate.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Walker's entire mojo is that he's a champion of the far right. He'll try, and the media will abet him, but I highly doubt he'll be able to position himself as a "moderate" the way McCain and Romney did. Which even they weren't entirely successful at, seeing as how Obama won moderates easily both times even though the election was framed as Moderate Republican vs. Liberal Democrat. Americans are more liberal than a lot of them like to believe.

Walker definitely draws his support and money from the far right but he gets elected by appealing to the white working class. He's draws on their resentment of basically everyone else and is really good it. No one should under-estimate that.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Please point me to the statewide election he won in Wisconsin with a presidential turnout electorate.

Remember during the recall when people were saying 110% turnout in Madison?

If only...

Walker definitely draws his support and money from the far right but he gets elected by appealing to the white working class. He's draws on their resentment of basically everyone else and is really good it. No one should under-estimate that.

White working class is rapidly shrinking though. They're the most reliable voters for midterms but in a presidential election who cares? Republicans would need to start winning white voters by 60% to make up for their losses with minorities over the years. The Democrat would need to crash harder than Walter Mondale.

 

[ivysaur12]

Walker definitely draws his support and money from the far right but he gets elected by appealing to the white working class. He's draws on their resentment of basically everyone else and is really good it. No one should under-estimate that.

I totally agree with that, but also think that's part of the Republican's problem: that's not a viable coalition with a presidential electorate.

EDIT: dammit Aaron

EDIT 2: I also think it'll be Walker for the nominee. Primaey schedule works in his favor.

 

[Y2Kev]

Feels weird to be rooting against Obama and his general inability to convince anyone to do anything actually playing in my favor!

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Liberals had 3 chances to be driven to the polls in droves against him in WI and all 3 attempts failed. Bernie Sanders would be a nightmare to the conservative right and the middle of America/moderates. Walker is going to hit the reset button when he wins and look moderate in the general election.

In the first election, he pitched himself as moderate.

In the recall, he ran against the same guy.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Please point me to the statewide election he won in Wisconsin with a presidential turnout electorate.

WI and 35 other states hold their elections in midterms. There is no precedent for Walker but that shouldn't discount his chance to win in a Presidential environment. Plenty of Democrats have been just as fortunate in Presidential elections as well as midterms such as Tester. If Walker is the nominee, Democrats and left leaning Independents may see the choice for Walker as President differently I concede.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Feels weird to be rooting against Obama and his general inability to convince anyone to do anything actually playing in my favor!

I'm so happy (I'll be honest I've done a big pivot on this deal)

But I'm nervous about Re-votes next week. Still they need like 118+ dem votes.

 

[Y2Kev]

Also dreamy Paul Ryan fails to close another deal. For now.

 

[B-Dubs]

Walker definitely draws his support and money from the far right but he gets elected by appealing to the white working class. He's draws on their resentment of basically everyone else and is really good it. No one should under-estimate that.

If he had used that to win in a high turn-out election I'd be worried, but he's only ever competed in low turn-out affairs and the Tea Party wave of 2010, which was also low turn-out. Right now he's just a lot of hype with no substance.

 

[HyperionX]

If he had used that to win in a high turn-out election I'd be worried, but he's only ever competed in low turn-out affairs and the Tea Party wave of 2010, which was also low turn-out. Right now he's just a lot of hype with no substance.

His only real strength is that he's not Bush and not crazy. That's probably the only thing keeping him afloat in the primary.

 

[Abinash117]

TAA going down big time in the House. Good. Is Obama capable of effectively selling anything lol?

It probably will happen like with the senate. The media made it seem like the dems were revolting against Obama and it looked bad on them; that's what some claimed, they eventually passed it. I think John is going to bring it up again, with a little more conservative support for just TPP and some dems will vote for it.

 

[Wilsongt]

Oh boy oh boy oh boy!

Perry said he was “stunned” that Obama would make those comments publicly and that he believed they provided some level of insight into the president’s mentality on ISIS. The candidate suggested that if Obama hadn’t expressed a “lack of engagement to stop ISIS” in Syria, then the U.S. could have somehow eliminated both the terrorist network and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, despite the fact that they were fighting each other and knocking one side down would have only bolstered the other.

“It’s this lack of really being able to connect the dots, I think it’s a lack of executive experience that this president has, as well as a philosophical void when it comes to understanding what it takes to keep America safe,” Perry added.

While this “executive experience” argument may have been a reasonable line of attack against Obama in 2008, now that he has been president for more than six years, it rings a bit hollow.

It has begun!

 

[B-Dubs]

Oh boy oh boy oh boy!



It has begun!

Is he drunk?

 

[Metaphoreus]

Oh boy oh boy oh boy!



It has begun!

To be fair, Obama has only been president for six and a half years. FDR was president for, like, 80. So, relatively inexperienced.

 

[Lucky Forward]

Is he drunk?

He's into the back pills again.

 

[demon]

Liberals had 3 chances to be driven to the polls in droves against him in WI and all 3 attempts failed.

None of which were general elections where any Republican will have a much harder time. The recall didn't even put him against a different opponent than the first election. Walker has had the fortune of always running against weak opponents who fail to excite the base and never having to worry about general election democrat turnout. It's easy to be overconfident about Walker's chances on the national stage against a formidable opponent.

Walker is going to hit the reset button when he wins and look moderate in the general election.

Well, I mean he can try, I suppose...

 

[NeoXChaos]

We think of these Republican Governors policies as disasters to America and their respective state but my frustration comes from the fact that despite this reality voters continue to be apathetic.

People have been clamoring for change since 2004. Every 2 years since then, voters have hired Democrats and fired Republicans in 06', fired them at the presidential level in 08', fired Democrats in the house in 10', rehired the Democrat President in 12' and fired the Democrats in the Senate in 14'.

What does America actually want from its leaders in 16'? Do they want progressive policies or conservative policies? because these mixed signals every two years is not working and turnout is contributing to that confusion. Who are these 62% eligible/registered voter in midterms, 45% in Presidential elections not voting? Why are they not voting? What will make them vote? They wanted to fire Walker because of his Union policies but didn't vote, why?

 

[Wilsongt]

To be fair, Obama has only been president for six and a half years. FDR was president for, like, 80. So, relatively inexperienced.

If Obama has his way he'll be 15 term pres.

 

[B-Dubs]

To be fair, Obama has only been president for six and a half years. FDR was president for, like, 80. So, relatively inexperienced.

If FDR is the baseline then everyone is inexperienced in comparison.

 

[Jack Remington]

Rubio has a far better shot, I believe.

Glass-of-water-gate will tank him, IMO.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Hillary's silence on the trade debate is interesting. I would have assumed that she'd take the liberal position since there isn't a downside to it, voter wise. It would also give her a full circle moment: Obama hammered her on NAFTA in 2008, now she'd get to hammer him on an even worse deal for the country/workers.

She hasn't hesitated to adopt a variety of liberal positions, some of which I'd assume she is far from genuine about. I wonder what makes this different - or at least, led to her waiting so long to say anything.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Hillary's silence on the trade debate is interesting. I would have assumed that she'd take the liberal position since there isn't a downside to it, voter wise. It would also give her a full circle moment: Obama hammered her on NAFTA in 2008, now she'd get to hammer him on an even worse deal for the country/workers.

She hasn't hesitated to adopt a variety of liberal positions, some of which I'd assume she is far from genuine about. I wonder what makes this different - or at least, led to her waiting so long to say anything.

She might not want to piss off a whole lot of business donors.

 

[Jack Remington]

Hillary gains nothing by weighing in now.

 

[Abinash117]

Hillary gains nothing by weighing in now.

Liberals would criticize her if she would support it, but I don't know what would happen if she would denounce it. Probably a lot of pro trade and business groups would criticize her .

 

[Yellowtail]

Why would she want to hammer Obama? If she had come out against the TPP she'd absolute get the blame for Democrats revolting against it in Congress and destroying a centerpiece of the President's second term agenda. She'd be seen as having legitimized its opposition among mainstream Democrats. The last thing her campaign wants is a HILLARY AND OBAMA AT WAR story line that would inevitably engulf the media and cause unnecessary rifts within the party. She's going to try and run in lockstep with Obama until election day.

It's actually quite impressive her team have managed to stop her from becoming a focus of the debate, and so many Democrats (including Warren) have essentially given her a free pass to protect her.

She'll probably come out against it once it passes (or fails). She's been subtly laying the groundwork by saying that the deal needs a currency provision when it doesn't have one. Progressives won't believe her as always, but that's the option that will cause the least worst damage.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Why would she want to hammer Obama? If she had come out against the TPP she'd absolute get the blame for Democrats revolting against it in Congress and destroying a centerpiece of the President's second term agenda. She'd be seen as having legitimized its opposition among mainstream Democrats. The last thing her campaign wants is a HILLARY AND OBAMA AT WAR story line that would inevitably engulf the media and cause unnecessary rifts within the party. She's going to try and run in lockstep with Obama until election day.

It's actually quite impressive her team have managed to stop her from becoming a focus of the debate, and so many Democrats (including Warren) have essentially given her a free pass to protect her.

She'll probably come out against it once it passes (or fails). She's been subtly laying the groundwork by saying that the deal needs a currency provision when it doesn't have one. Progressives won't believe her as always, but that's the option that will cause the least worst damage.

1. I find myself agreeing with you on everything but if Obama's numbers collapse she might distance herself like Gore.
2. Reminder: Hillary is announcing that she is running for president tomorrow. Bush on Monday. Trump on Tuesday.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

1. I find myself agreeing with you on everything but if Obama's numbers collapse she might distance herself like Gore.
2. Reminder: Hillary is announcing that she is running for president tomorrow. Bush on Monday. Trump on Tuesday.

She's already announced. Its just her first rally