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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

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Looks like liberals gave Scott Walker another win with that asinine, false rape story. Whoops.

I'm telling you guys, Walker has mastered falling up. He's the political version of Lane Kiffin.
 

benjipwns

Banned
I think he either has something to do with the case (i.e. lawyer, some kind of advisor, etc) or knows some important people who are. He'd be a fool to admit it here at this point in time, but that's my gut feeling about him. He told me he wasn't "that" kind of lawyer once before, but I don't believe that. He has a level of confidence about this case that is most certainly not just trolling or beating his chest over his opinion just so he can be right on a message board; it's like he knows something.
m9QEuy7.gif
 
Looks like liberals gave Scott Walker another win with that asinine, false rape story. Whoops.

I'm telling you guys, Walker has mastered falling up. He's the political version of Lane Kiffin.

So dumb, and so unnecessary, considering Walker's hubris and verbal diarrhea.

He's going to have tons of union/terrorist-style fuckups in the months ahead. There's no need to start inventing shit about him.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
National Republican Senatorial Committee spokeswoman Andrea Bozek said that with the GOP winning the governorship in Maryland last year, “there’s no question that an open Senate seat in Maryland instantly becomes a top pickup opportunity for Republicans.”

LOL
 

Crisco

Banned
Regarding King v Burwell. It basically comes down to these 3 statements, right?







Combine the bolded and you get:


So if I understand it correctly, the secretary of health establishing an exchange within the state is practically the same as the state establishing an exchange when looking at the text in full context, right?

Seem like a more understandable interpretation of the context than the context that says the states should take multiple obscure statements from multiple separate pages of a 950 page bill to interpret a threat to coerce those states into making a exchange of their own.

All going by a strict textualist interpretation, of course.

Remember, King's rationale is that "by the State", specifically the choice of "by", represents an unambiguous restriction on subsidies. Once you realize how absurd that is, then it doesn't matter which interpretation is more "understandable", only that court precedent means the IRS rule stands. The rest is just an exercise in circular reasoning where the law's supporters gloss over the myriad inconsistencies in their reading using conservative memes. It's an ideological beef dressed up as a legal case by a bunch of grammar trolls working for a libertarian think tank. 7-2, at worst.
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
Remember, King's rationale is that "by the State", specifically the choice of "by", represents an unambiguous restriction on subsidies. Once you realize how absurd that is, then it doesn't matter which interpretation is more "understandable", only that court precedent means the IRS rule stands. The rest is just an exercise in circular reasoning where the law's supporters gloss over the myriad inconsistencies in their reading using conservative memes. It's an ideological beef dressed up as a legal case by a bunch of grammar trolls working for a libertarian think tank. 7-2, at worst.

No, but really, different words have different meanings. You don't even have to go to law school to understand that.

So, yes, it undeniably matters that credits are restricted to purchasers of insurance from an "Exchange established by [a] State under 1311" rather than granted to a larger class of individuals that Congress may have identified through any number of different phrases. That's not absurd. That's language.

As for your prediction, I find it hard to believe that a Court that split 4-1-4 over whether a fish is a "tangible object" would so clearly swing in your favor, but I offer no prediction of my own. We'll know the outcome soon enough.
 

Crisco

Banned
No, but really, different words have different meanings. You don't even have to go to law school to understand that.

So, yes, it undeniably matters that credits are restricted to purchasers of insurance from an "Exchange established by [a] State under 1311" rather than granted to a larger class of individuals that Congress may have identified through any number of different phrases. That's not absurd. That's language.

As for your prediction, I find it hard to believe that a Court that split 4-1-4 over whether a fish is a "tangible object" would so clearly swing in your favor, but I offer no prediction of my own. We'll know the outcome soon enough.

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also,

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Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more

Not even the government argues that this is a typo. And the name of the group that invaded Spain in the 8th century is an objective, readily ascertainable fact. Not so the subjective intentions and beliefs of the 279 members of Congress that voted for the ACA. More important, the text Congress voted on is what the law is, not what individual members believed without enacting. In contrast, the identity of who invaded Spain is independent of what Trivial Pursuit prints on its cards. So, yours is a flawed analogy (but fun, nevertheless).
 
Not even the government argues that this is a typo. And the name of the group that invaded Spain in the 8th century is an objective, readily ascertainable fact. Not so the subjective intentions and beliefs of the 279 members of Congress that voted for the ACA. More important, the text Congress voted on is what the law is, not what individual members believed without enacting. In contrast, the identity of who invaded Spain is independent of what Trivial Pursuit prints on its cards. So, yours is a flawed analogy (but fun, nevertheless).

ok? and they didn't argue the ACA had a tax
 

Crisco

Banned
Not even the government argues that this is a typo. And the name of the group that invaded Spain in the 8th century is an objective, readily ascertainable fact. Not so the subjective intentions and beliefs of the 279 members of Congress that voted for the ACA. More important, the text Congress voted on is what the law is, not what individual members believed without enacting. In contrast, the identity of who invaded Spain is independent of what Trivial Pursuit prints on its cards. So, yours is a flawed analogy (but fun, nevertheless).

Really, something that happened in the 8th century is an "objective, readily ascertainable fact.". Do you have time machines? In fact, it would be far easier for me to find evidence of the "intentions" of Congress supporting the IRS rule than the name of a medieval tribe. But hey, continue down the absurdist path King compels its supporters to follow, the real fun starts in 2 days!
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
ok? and they didn't argue the ACA had a tax

Not initially, but they certainly did by the time they reached SCOTUS. It was in their brief and everything.

Really, something that happened in the 8th century is an "objective, readily ascertainable fact.". Do you have time machines? In fact, it would be far easier for me to find evidence of the "intentions" of Congress supporting the IRS rule than the name of a medieval tribe. But hey, continue down the absurdist path King compels its supporters to follow, the real fun starts in 2 days!

Not sure the dude denying that historical facts can be known so he can win an argument should be referring to anyone else's reasoning as an "absurdist path."

But note that you're focusing on the implicitly less-important part of my post.

EDIT: Actually, here's what let's do: if you can provide evidence contemporaneous with the debate over or passage of the ACA that at least 51 Senators (out of the 60 that voted for the ACA) and at least 218 Representatives (out of the 219 that voted for the ACA) subjectively believed that the ACA provided tax credits on the federal exchange, then I will concede that you've carried the burden of proof that you think is so crucial to this case.
 

Crisco

Banned
Not initially, but they certainly did by the time they reached SCOTUS. It was in their brief and everything.



Not sure the dude denying that historical facts can be known so he can win an argument should be referring to anyone else's reasoning as an "absurdist path."

But note that you're focusing on the implicitly less-important part of my post.

Well I wasn't sure an argument that flies in the face of history so recent most of us can recall it from memory would ever make it to the SCOTUS, yet here we are. I'm glad you recognize "historical facts" exist, now show me a single one supporting the challengers without using the word "Gruber".

EDIT: Actually, here's what let's do: if you can provide evidence contemporaneous with the debate over or passage of the ACA that at least 51 Senators (out of the 60 that voted for the ACA) and at least 218 Representatives (out of the 219 that voted for the ACA) subjectively believed that the ACA provided tax credits on the federal exchange, then I will concede that you've carried the burden of proof that you think is so crucial to this case.

But the burden of proof isn't on me, it's on the challengers to prove the IRS's rule violated the law's "plain meaning". Cherry picking through various quotes by members of Congress (and Gruber) is what the plaintiff's have done to support their case, and is indicative of an argument that lacks substance. By contrast, the government's argument is a coherent construction based purely on the text of the ACA.
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
Well I wasn't sure an argument that flies in the face of history so recent most of us can recall it from memory would ever make it to the SCOTUS, yet here we are. I'm glad you recognize "historical facts" exist, now show me a single one supporting the challengers without using the word "Gruber".

You missed my edit:

Actually, here's what let's do: if you can provide evidence contemporaneous with the debate over or passage of the ACA that at least 51 Senators (out of the 60 that voted for the ACA) and at least 218 Representatives (out of the 219 that voted for the ACA) subjectively believed that the ACA provided tax credits on the federal exchange, then I will concede that you've carried the burden of proof that you think is so crucial to this case.

Given how fresh in your mind is the passage of the ACA and the subjective beliefs of those who voted on it, this should take you no time at all. I eagerly await your report.

EDIT:

But the burden of proof isn't on me, it's on the challengers to prove the IRS's rule violated the law's "plain meaning". Cherry picking through various quotes by members of Congress (and Gruber) is what the plaintiff's have done to support their case, and is indicative of an argument that lacks substance. By contrast, the government's argument is a coherent construction based purely on the text of the ACA.

The burden of proof is on the person affirming the truth of a proposition. I have affirmed the truth of the proposition that the text provides credits only on state-established exchanges, and I have provided textual evidence supporting that proposition. You have affirmed the truth of the proposition that Congress (by which I understand you to mean enough individual members of Congress to constitute a majority of each chamber) subjectively intended that credits be available on federally established exchanges. You bear the burden of proof on that point. If you cannot support that proposition with evidence, you should withdraw it. If you can support that proposition with the evidence I've asked for, I'll be very impressed.
 
Seriously this is embarrassing this is still being debated.

Its a shame. People are being forced to debate against all logical reason and known history against a fictional story concocted by lawyers for the express purpose of getting rid of a law they don't like and whose constitutionally has been sustained
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
APK, maybe you and Crisco can work together to provide the evidence I've requested. (It's still not legally relevant, but at least it would provide an empirical foundation for challenging the existing legal framework for interpreting laws.)

Some non-King items of interest:

Professor Glenn Reynolds of the University of Tennessee law school (aka Instapundit) suggests that the Third Amendment prohibition on quartering soldiers in private residences might be used to place restrictions on such things as government installing spyware on individuals' electronic devices, regulations on raising children, and no-knock SWAT raids:

Glenn Reynolds said:
The only Supreme Court case in which the Third Amendment did any heavy lifting is Griswold v. Connecticut, a case that's not about troop-quartering, but about birth control. The Supreme Court held that the Third Amendment's "penumbra" (a legal term that predates the Griswold case) extended to protecting the privacy of the home from government intrusions. "Would we," asked the court, "allow the police to search the sacred precincts of marital bedrooms for telltale signs of the use of contraceptives?" The very idea, said the court, was "repulsive."

Likewise, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit held in Engblom v. Carey that the Third Amendment protects a "fundamental right to privacy" in the home. Since then, courts haven't done much to flesh these holdings out, but I wonder if they should. In the 18th century, when the Third Amendment was drafted, "troop quartering" meant literally having troops move into your house to live at your expense and sleep in your beds. It destroyed any semblance of domestic privacy, opening up conversations, affection, even spats to the observation and participation of outsiders. It converted a home into an arena.

Today we don't have that, but we have numerous intrusions that didn't exist in James Madison's day: Government spying on phones, computers, and video — is spyware on your computer like having a tiny soldier quartered on your hard drive? — intrusive regulations on child-rearing and education, the threat of dangerous "no-knock" raids by soldierly SWAT teams that break down doors first and ask questions later.

The Third Amendment hasn't been invoked in these cases — well, actually, it has, in the case of a SWAT team in Henderson, Nev., that took over a family home so that it could position itself against a neighbor's house — but maybe it should be. At least, maybe we should go farther in recognizing a fundamental right of privacy in people's homes.

Prof. Josh Blackman of the South Texas College of Law directs readers to an article available on SSRN by Steven Calabresi, which offers "Inside Dirt Behind the Appointments of Justices O’Connor, Kennedy, and Souter, and Non-Appointments of Starr, Posner, and Wilkinson." Here's a sample:

Steven Calabresi said:
Given the tiny number of women who attended law school in the 1950’s, it is very unlikely that any such conservative woman existed who had attended the nearly all male law schools of the 1950’s. Justice O’Connor was hand-picked by former Judge Ken Starr who served as Attorney General William French Smith’s Councilor and Chief of Staff in the early 1980’s. Starr was at the time a very moderate Republican with squishy views that were indistinguishable from those Justice O’Connor later displayed on the Supreme Court.

...

In hand-picking Justice O’Connor for appointment to the U.S. Supreme Court, Ken Starr picked someone very much like himself: a mediocre, squishy, centrist with slight conservative leanings. Justice Scalia did not drive Justice O’Connor to the left. She was already there when President Reagan appointed her. The person to blame for the fiasco of the O’Connor appointment is not Justice Scalia but Ken Starr.

...

I think Starr would have joined O’Connor and Kennedy in refusing to overrule Roe v. Wade, and he would have been a constant thorn in William Rehnquist’s and Antonin Scalia’s side as he was when he was on the D.C. Circuit. He craved the approval of the Georgetown dinner party circle and of the elite law schools. He was also prone to make mistakes and furiously stubborn about not backing down from them in a way that has always reminded me of Justice Harry Blackmun who devoted his life to the defense of his mistake in Roe v. Wade. It was a serious error of judgment ever to have considered Ken Starr for appointment to the Supreme Court. His disastrous handling of his appointment as an independent council to investigate Bill Clinton proved to the nation all of his many flaws in judgment.

Finally, the Obama administration filed a motion to dismiss the lawsuit filed against it by the House of Representatives (a memorandum in support of that motion is available here), and last week, the House of Representatives filed its response to the motion, available here (with an exhibit to that filing available here).
 

Crisco

Banned
You missed my edit:



Given how fresh in your mind is the passage of the ACA and the subjective beliefs of those who voted on it, this should take you no time at all. I eagerly await your report.

EDIT:



The burden of proof is on the person affirming the truth of a proposition.I have affirmed the truth of the proposition that the text provides credits only on state-established exchanges, and I have provided textual evidence supporting that proposition. You have affirmed the truth of the proposition that Congress (by which I understand you to mean enough individual members of Congress to constitute a majority of each chamber) subjectively intended that credits be available on federally established exchanges. You bear the burden of proof on that point. If you cannot support that proposition with evidence, you should withdraw it. If you can support that proposition with the evidence I've asked for, I'll be very impressed.

Highlighting 3 words is not "providing evidence", it's what grammar trolls do on the internet because their argument lacks substance. On the contrary, the government has provided plenty of actual historical evidence proving Congress understood the law would provide subsidies on federal exchanges,and "enough individual members of Congress to constitute a majority of each chamber" voted for and passed that law.

Seriously this is embarrassing this is still being debated.

Its a shame. People are being forced to debate against all logical reason and known history against a fictional story concocted by lawyers for the express purpose of getting rid of a law they don't like and whose constitutionally has been sustained

No man, you're missing the point. The more we get these people on record supporting this fallacious pile of bullshit, the harder it will be for them to back pedal when Roberts drops the hammer (again).
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
Highlighting 3 words is not "providing evidence", it's what grammar trolls do on the internet because their argument lacks substance. On the contrary, the government has provided plenty of actual historical evidence proving Congress understood the law would provide subsidies on federal exchanges,and "enough individual members of Congress to constitute a majority of each chamber" voted for and passed that law.

Don't misrepresent my efforts to defend the challengers' position in this case. I've done far more than "[h]ighlight[] 3 words." (See, for one example, my last response to you in the previous PoliGAF thread.) And if the government has already "provided plenty of actual historical evidence proving Congress understood the law would provide subsidies on federal exchanges," then it should take you literally no time at all to point me to that evidence. Yet you don't. You'd rather belittle my position without having to support your own.
 
\
No man, you're missing the point. The more we get these people on record supporting this fallacious pile of bullshit, the harder it will be for them to back pedal when Roberts drops the hammer (again).

I just don't care at this point. Its just annoying.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
I love the 3rd Amendment. We need to use it more. Like, all the time. Still waiting for it to be incorporated.

Looks like SC is ready to guy the AZ redistricting commission

Gut? Probably not. It would buck a lot of precedent on the meaning of "legislature". Also, even if they strike aspects of it down, like the requirement of a specific partisan makeup of the board, I can't see the entire thing being struck down.

EDIT: Oops, forgot that the oral arguments were today.
 

Crisco

Banned
Don't misrepresent my efforts to defend the challengers' position in this case. I've done far more than "[h]ighlight[] 3 words." (See, for one example, my last response to you in the previous PoliGAF thread.) And if the government has already "provided plenty of actual historical evidence proving Congress understood the law would provide subsidies on federal exchanges," then it should take you literally no time at all to point me to that evidence. Yet you don't. You'd rather belittle my position without having to support your own.

True, you've definitely typed a lot of words in defense of the challenger's case, but it's a house of cards. It's like a research paper where the hypothesis has already been proven false. So, I guess, I'm sorry? Now, do you really want me to insult your intelligence by googling stuff for you?
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
True, you've definitely typed a lot of words in defense of the challenger's case, but it's a house of cards. It's like a research paper where the hypothesis has already been proven false. So, I guess, I'm sorry? Now, do you really want me to insult your intelligence by googling stuff for you?

We're having (at least, I'm having) an adult conversation here. You make a claim, you bring the evidence. I've not shied from explaining my own position or responding to your criticisms, even though, to date, you've done little but berate me. I won't keep this up forever, so if you want to continue discussing this topic with me, I suggest you take it seriously. (If you don't, that's fine. You should know by now that I have no problem with withdrawing from a discussion when I feel that the other person is not engaging in it in good faith.)

EDIT: Maybe I should expand on why your recent posts so frustrate me: in the old thread, you advanced the discussion by pointing to the Eskridge brief, which is a good brief and a good way of advancing the discussion. Then, I responded, taking issue with the Eskridge brief and pointing out where I thought it was flawed--that, too, advances the discussion. What you're doing here--complaining about "a lot of words," drawing negative analogies, and suggesting that the correctness of your position is so obvious that evidence isn't required to support it--doesn't advance the discussion. It's just noise meant to insult me.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Skimming over the oral arguments, Kennedy seems fairly skeptical of everyone's arguments, but he'll probably side with Arizona. This seems like a 5-4 decision, but, eh.

Breyer also still reads like he hit the bong before his philosophy 101 class before oral arguments. You do you, Steve.
 
I don't know if any of you guys saw this article this morning but I can't help but disagreeing with the entire thesis

http://www.vox.com/2015/3/2/8120063...t=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

I agree completely with a desire for a new system but the pronouncements about doom and gloom just strike me as really really short sighted.

He misses completely the agreements many millennials have on issues. And the fact that much of this disagreements are among a very specific generation which isn't going to live forever and only has 2-3 more decades in power. He also seemingly glosses over partisan shifts in his run down of history

He also ignores the fact that there has been much less friction in the past year on funding bills. The shutdown really ended that.

It just seems like he wants so bad for their to be a inevitability for fundamental change that doesn't seem to be supported.

edit: he also misses the fundamental unraveling of parliamentarian systems in greece and spain and others in europe and the reactionary tendency of them.
 

Jooney

Member
Don't misrepresent my efforts to defend the challengers' position in this case. I've done far more than "[h]ighlight[] 3 words." (See, for one example, my last response to you in the previous PoliGAF thread.) And if the government has already "provided plenty of actual historical evidence proving Congress understood the law would provide subsidies on federal exchanges," then it should take you literally no time at all to point me to that evidence. Yet you don't. You'd rather belittle my position without having to support your own.

Congress used it's Budget Office (I.e. The CBO) to score the bill with the understanding that the federally established exchanged would dole out subsidies.

Isn't that a good indicator that Congress interpreted the law in a way that supports the governments argument? If Congress's understanding was in line with that of King, then they would have told the CBO to do their jobs properly.
 
If AZ has its redistricting commission struck down then CA should have theirs too. If Democrats drew an aggressive gerrymander that would more than counterbalance the one seat or so we'd lose in Arizona.
 

benjipwns

Banned
I don't know if any of you guys saw this article this morning but I can't help but disagreeing with the entire thesis

http://www.vox.com/2015/3/2/8120063...t=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
Good god is he historically ignorant. I like how he seems to have perused two famous poli sci texts and then the stupid voteview guys work.

His entire history of the Gilded Age and then the 1920s-1940s and 1970s has got to be the worst reading of American political history in the last week or two. It's like liberal conservatism wasn't a dominant force until it was deliberately invented in the 1930s, or the entire silver/tariff era didn't happen, or William Jennings Bryan, or the Progressive movement that died with World War I, or the massive ideological shift of the 1970s with the Democrats swinging towards the McGovernites and not working that out of their system for the next few years as they drove out the Southern Democrats while the Republicans swung towards Reagan (he almost grabbed the nomination in 1976!) and drove the Rockefeller Republicans out. (Arguably both of which were set in motion in about 1966.)

And his notions of party discipline completely sweep over the battles within the parties. Arthur wasn't in that position because of party discipline but because he was a Stalwart and that faction needed to be bought off. (And then he ironically resisted their calls for patronage to start civil service reform.)

He bemoans the checks and balances in the American system as leading to gridlock, while at the same time bemoaning Presidential systems that didn't have strong checks and balances for leading to "democracy's" collapse when Presidents faced the slightest opposition and wiped it away with "emergency powers" usually. Something he later seems to suggest is actually a positive thing to combat "dysfunction."

I still can't believe people are talking about Honduras as if it was a standard Latin American coup. Perhaps ironically to Yglesias, if they had a parliamentary system, the party would have simply changed leaders rather than impeaching him.

And I can't keep track whether we have a ideologically polarized system or not or we didn't in the past but do now but we don't know but did in the past because he's a shitty writer who had no thesis statement.

I like how he loves Japan's system. A system where business and government were entirely integrated with a single party running the nation for basically 60 years, and still had 43 Governments under 25 Prime Ministers.

5cf1f603c7b2e2f7de072a6bbad4c40a.png

STABILITY!

I think he should go back to writing about how eating lunch outside with other people is his own personal Benghazi.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
If AZ has its redistricting commission struck down then CA should have theirs too. If Democrats drew an aggressive gerrymander that would more than counterbalance the one seat or so we'd lose in Arizona.

Yes, it would get struck down along with AZs, likely making the net effect around 0.

But I'd much rather keep Kyrsten Sinema in Congress, especially since she's viable as a statewide candidate.

EDIT:

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Our last three public polls- NC, national, and SC- have all had the same 4 Republicans in double digits- Walker, Bush, Carson, Huckabee

.
 
Good god is he historically ignorant. I like how he seems to have perused two famous poli sci texts and then the stupid voteview guys work.

His entire history of the Gilded Age and then the 1920s-1940s and 1970s has got to be the worst reading of American political history in the last week or two. It's like liberal conservatism wasn't a dominant force until it was deliberately invented in the 1930s, or the entire silver/tariff era didn't happen, or William Jennings Bryan, or the Progressive movement that died with World War I, or the massive ideological shift of the 1970s with the Democrats swinging towards the McGovernites and not working that out of their system for the next few years as they drove out the Southern Democrats while the Republicans swung towards Reagan (he almost grabbed the nomination in 1976!) and drove the Rockefeller Republicans out. (Arguably both of which were set in motion in about 1966.)

And his notions of party discipline completely sweep over the battles within the parties. Arthur wasn't in that position because of party discipline but because he was a Stalwart and that faction needed to be bought off. (And then he ironically resisted their calls for patronage to start civil service reform.)

He bemoans the checks and balances in the American system as leading to gridlock, while at the same time bemoaning Presidential systems that didn't have strong checks and balances for leading to "democracy's" collapse when Presidents faced the slightest opposition and wiped it away with "emergency powers" usually. Something he later seems to suggest is actually a positive thing to combat "dysfunction."

I still can't believe people are talking about Honduras as if it was a standard Latin American coup. Perhaps ironically to Yglesias, if they had a parliamentary system, the party would have simply changed leaders rather than impeaching him.

And I can't keep track whether we have a ideologically polarized system or not or we didn't in the past but do now but we don't know but did in the past because he's a shitty writer who had no thesis statement.

I like how he loves Japan's system. A system where business and government were entirely integrated with a single party running the nation for basically 60 years, and still had 43 Governments under 25 Prime Ministers.

5cf1f603c7b2e2f7de072a6bbad4c40a.png

STABILITY!

I think he should go back to writing about how eating lunch outside with other people is his own personal Benghazi.

or how it being hot is worse than cold or something.
 

benjipwns

Banned
The American public wanted Al Gore to be president
Well, 26.2% of eligible voters did.

The general presumption among elites at the time was that Democrats should accept this with good manners, and Bush would respond to the weak mandate with moderate, consensus-oriented governance. This was not in the cards.... but because the era of the "partisan presidency" demands that the president try to implement the party's agenda, regardless of circumstances. That's how we got drastic tax cuts in 2001.
Does he have like no memory? Or does he only care about Tax Cuts?
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Iraq Resolutions:
640px-H.J.Res._114_Iraq_Resolution_Votes_October_2002.png


Patriot Act was 357-66 in the House, 98-1 in the Senate.
Sarbanes-Oxley was 423-3 in the House, 99-0 in the Senate.
McCain-Feingold was 240-189 in the House, 60-40 in the Senate. (176 GOP and 38 GOP opposed respectively.)
Help America Vote Act was 357-48 in House, 92-2 in Senate.
Homeland Security was 295-132 in House, 90-9 in Senate.
Farm Bill of 2002 was 280-141 in House, 64-35 in Senate.

All of this signed by Bush because he didn't veto a single piece of legislation until late in his second term.

To me, that looks like a whole bunch of bipartisan consensus horseshit passed in Bush's first Congress. (Which remember the Senate was 50-50 and roughly GOP controlled half the time and Dem controlled half the time.) Especially if you consider that Democrats abandoned Ted Kennedy on Medicare Part D because the GOP had watered it down from the original proposal after the 2002 elections.

It was after the 2002 and 2004 elections that they started passing more daring horseshit along blatant partisan agenda lines. Culminating in the Terri Schavio lunacy.
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
Congress used it's Budget Office (I.e. The CBO) to score the bill with the understanding that the federally established exchanged would dole out subsidies.

Isn't that a good indicator that Congress interpreted the law in a way that supports the governments argument? If Congress's understanding was in line with that of King, then they would have told the CBO to do their jobs properly.

Do you have a link to this? The problem is that assuming credits would be available in every state could be premised either on the availability of credits through FFEs or on the further assumption that every state would establish its own exchange. But without specifics, I can't really respond effectively.

As a general response, see here:

The Dastardly Michael Cannon (cue spooky music) said:
What Skocpol, Kliff, and her otherwise alert reader missed — which they would not have missed if they read our brief — is that the HELP bill permanently withheld Exchange subsidies if a state failed to implement that bill’s employer mandate. Again, from our brief:

The Dastardly Michael Cannon and the Malicious Jonathan Adler said:
After four years, the federal government would establish an Exchange “in” the state and implement guaranteed-issue and community-rating rules even stricter than those found in the PPACA. If a state thereafter failed to implement the bill’s employer mandate, S. 1679 withheld Exchange subsidies permanently — even in a federal Exchange.

Emphasis in original. In fact, the HELP bill would have withheld Exchange subsidies in both federal Exchanges and state-established Exchanges if the state did not cooperate by implementing the bill’s employer mandate. Even the government’s amici concede the HELP bill, which was merged with the Finance committee’s health care bill to form the PPACA, conditioned Exchange subsidies on states implementing the law. . . .

Why is this relevant to Skocpol’s analysis of the CBO’s cost projections? Because, as Adler and I write in our brief:

The Hateful Michael Cannon and the Evil Jonathan Adler said:
the CBO likewise scored S. 1679 (the HELP bill) as providing Exchange subsidies in all states, even though — as all sides acknowledge — the bill withheld Exchange subsidies in non-compliant states.

In other words, the fact that the CBO assumed there would be subsidies in all 50 states under the HELP bill or the PPACA does not indicate that Congress did not intend to condition those subsidies on state cooperation. The CBO also assumed that the PPACA’s Medicaid-expansion subsidies would be available in all states. Does that mean those subsidies were not conditional on state cooperation?
 
The fish case should have already tipped our hat regarding King. By an 8-1 margin (Alito being the 1), the SCOTUS members agreed the dictionary definition of a word doesn't bind the interpretation as the language of the whole law matters. Yes, the case was 5-4 but on that point it was 8-1.

This should mean that the challengers in King should fail miserably.

And even if it did pass, as I have repeatedly asked Metamucil to respond, the Court has already ruled a threat not levied no longer exists and that changes the law (Scalia penning it, of course)...but he won't respond to me ever again on this topic and since no one else brings it up to him, he avoids it altogether.

Anyway, at least there's one thing we can all agree on. The Court refused to release the oral ttapes on Wednesday as a special case and thus we must wait til Friday. BOOOOO.

Also, Jonathon Cohn with another great piece on King and it's BS. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/03/02/obamacare-supreme-court_n_6783894.html?1425326679
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
And even if it did pass, as I have repeatedly asked Metamucil to respond, the Court has already ruled a threat not levied no longer exists and that changes the law (Scalia penning it, of course)...but he won't respond to me ever again on this topic and since no one else brings it up to him, he avoids it altogether.

Friendly note: I addressed this argument (briefly) here:

(4) Conditions on a grant of federal money must be unambiguous. This is the Pennhurst argument of which BM is so proud. It suffers from two important weaknesses. First, as I've mentioned before, the Court will only address the question if it first concludes that 36B clearly limits credits to state-established exchanges. So, a condition to raising this argument resolves it. Second, the Court thinks about cases like this as akin to contract formation. Conditions attached to an offer of federal money have to be clear, the Court reasons, because it would be unfair to impose requirements on the states that accept the offer if those requirements weren’t obvious at the time the offer was accepted. But here, the complaining states are those that rejected the purported offer. These are not offerees bound to a contract that includes a hidden term; they are offerees not bound to a contract because they rejected it. The Pennhurst analysis is inapplicable.

And you're over-reading Yates. There's not a justice on the Court that thinks context shouldn't be consulted in determining the meaning of a term or phrase used by Congress.
 
Do you have a link to this? The problem is that assuming credits would be available in every state could be premised either on the availability of credits through FFEs or on the further assumption that every state would establish its own exchange. But without specifics, I can't really respond effectively.

http://www.scholarsstrategynetwork....t-evidence-congressional-intent-about-health-

Also, interviews with the CBO director or those tasked with scoring have confirmed it. I posted one on GAF before.

And of course, this makes sense, because denying subsidies on the federal exchange render the federal exchanges useless and thus a waste of time. Another fact you refuse to address.
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
http://www.scholarsstrategynetwork....t-evidence-congressional-intent-about-health-

Also, interviews with the CBO director or those tasked with scoring have confirmed it. I posted one on GAF before.

And of course, this makes sense, because denying subsidies on the federal exchange render the federal exchanges useless and thus a waste of time. Another fact you refuse to address.

Another misconception I have addressed, you mean:

The exchanges are "a marketplace where individuals and small businesses will be able to shop for health insurance at competitive prices. Insurance companies will have an incentive to participate in this exchange because it lets them compete for millions of new customers. As one big group, these customers will have greater leverage to bargain with the insurance companies for better prices and quality coverage. This is how large companies and government employees get affordable insurance. It's how everyone in this Congress gets affordable insurance. And it's time to give every American the same opportunity that we give ourselves." This is important, because "consumers do better when there is choice and competition. That's how the market works. Unfortunately, in 34 states, 75 percent of the insurance market is controlled by five or fewer companies. In Alabama, almost 90 percent is controlled by just one company. And without competition, the price of insurance goes up and quality goes down. And it makes it easier for insurance companies to treat their customers badly -- by cherry-picking the healthiest individuals and trying to drop the sickest, by overcharging small businesses who have no leverage, and by jacking up rates."

Put another way, exchanges--marketplaces "that . . . operate something like a Travelocity Web site for insurance policies"--"fix a fundamental flaw in the present system by giving small businesses and individuals a broad choice of insurance policies at competitive prices. Right now, such buyers typically have few affordable options." But "[w]ithout careful design and adequate rules of fair play, and without letting enough buyers participate to create a robust market, the exchange might not actually stimulate new competition among the nation’s health insurers. . . . The risk is that many local markets could end up looking much as they do today — with small businesses and individuals at the mercy of too few insurers wielding too much power in their regions."

Or, again, exchanges are "an attempt to inject some retail competition into a marketplace that today is not exactly teeming with bargains. Theoretically, they’d allow individuals and small businesses to band together and get better prices and more variety in health insurance options – the kinds of breaks that big corporations can negotiate for their employees today."

In addition to providing greater leverage to consumers in an attempt to control costs, "[t]he exchanges would offer individuals who do not have employer-sponsored health insurance and some small businesses a choice of health care plans, providing standardized information on areas such as benefits and cost, making it easier to shop for coverage." Former Secretary of HHS Sebelius agreed, when announcing the launch of Healthcare.gov: "HealthCare.gov will help take some of the mystery out of shopping for health insurance. For too long, it was confusing to identify your options and compare plans. HealthCare.gov makes comparison shopping easier with a new insurance finder that allows users to answer a few basic questions and receive information about insurance options that could work for them. The site makes a system that thrived on complication and confusion easier to understand. This kind of transparency helps create informed consumers which increases competition, reduces prices and improves quality."

Your reductionist theory that the exchanges are simply about providing credits to eligible taxpayers doesn't stand up to scrutiny against the statutory functions assigned to the exchanges or against contemporaneous expressions of the purpose of the exchanges.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Does anyone think Mark Kirk despite his best efforts is going to survive next year? That seat has high turnover and nobody since Alan Dixon reelection in 1986 has held that seat for more than 1 term.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Does anyone think Mark Kirk despite his best efforts is going to survive next year? That seat has high turnover and nobody since Alan Dixon reelection in 1986 has held that seat for more than 1 term.

I'm sure Mark Kirk thinks he'll be reelected. But I don't think the high turnover of that seat means anything towards his chances. More, in a high turnout year in a blue state, he's running as a Republican. If he has a decent challenger, it'll be very hard for him to overcome demographics.
 
I'm sure Mark Kirk thinks he'll be reelected. But I don't think the high turnover of that seat means anything towards his chances. More, in a high turnout year in a blue state, he's running as a Republican. If he has a decent challenger, it'll be very hard for him to overcome demographics.

I'm pretty sure he's done for.

1) I imagine he'll be primaried, as he's moderate as Republicans go. He'll have to go on record with stronger conservative comments.
2) It's going to be a high D turnout year
3) He only won by a couple of points in 2010, a GOP wave year
 

Crisco

Banned
We're having (at least, I'm having) an adult conversation here. You make a claim, you bring the evidence. I've not shied from explaining my own position or responding to your criticisms, even though, to date, you've done little but berate me. I won't keep this up forever, so if you want to continue discussing this topic with me, I suggest you take it seriously. (If you don't, that's fine. You should know by now that I have no problem with withdrawing from a discussion when I feel that the other person is not engaging in it in good faith.)

EDIT: Maybe I should expand on why your recent posts so frustrate me: in the old thread, you advanced the discussion by pointing to the Eskridge brief, which is a good brief and a good way of advancing the discussion. Then, I responded, taking issue with the Eskridge brief and pointing out where I thought it was flawed--that, too, advances the discussion. What you're doing here--complaining about "a lot of words," drawing negative analogies, and suggesting that the correctness of your position is so obvious that evidence isn't required to support it--doesn't advance the discussion. It's just noise meant to insult me.

Look, I only really mean to bash those directly involved in advancing and promoting this case, not potential victims of their actions like yourself. As I've said, I think its an ideological crusade, not a legitimate legal case, the consequences of which could be devastating to millions.I never attempted to hide my hostility towards the subject, but you still chose to respond to me. That's on you.
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
Look, I only really mean to bash those directly involved in advancing and promoting this case, not potential victims of their actions like yourself. As I've said, I think its an ideological crusade, not a legitimate legal case, the consequences of which could be devastating to millions.I never attempted to hide my hostility towards the subject, but you still chose to respond to me. That's on you.

That's an odd approach to participating in a discussion forum, but if you only comment to be heard, then I shall do likewise. In responding to your posts from here on, I'll only respond to correct the various misstatements included in them, and not otherwise engage you in conversation.

For what it's worth, Metaphoreous, your arguments about King v. Burwell are a lot more compelling than your arguments about the FCC.

I'll let you in on a secret: they're also much more studied.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
I'm pretty sure he's done for.

1) I imagine he'll be primaried, as he's moderate as Republicans go. He'll have to go on record with stronger conservative comments.
2) It's going to be a high D turnout year
3) He only won by a couple of points in 2010, a GOP wave year

Yes, exactly. Whoever runs against him will probably win. That's no fault of Mark Kirk's own -- he's actually done everything right, and if he loses, it'll be a lot like Kay Hagan's loss in 2012. He'll probably run a near perfect campaign, but it'll be tough to go against the realities of what the election is.
 
Friendly note: I addressed this argument (briefly) here:

First, as I've mentioned before, the Court will only address the question if it first concludes that 36B clearly limits credits to state-established exchanges. So, a condition to raising this argument resolves it.

Uh, no shit...and how is this a weakness? I have repeatedly said that even if the argument in King was sound that it restricts the subsidies in the law that they lack of conveying the threat makes it irrelevant. Obviously to ask this question means they Court believes the text says the subsidies are restricting. I'm not arguing otherwise and it's not a weakness. It's just another example of how the King argument should ultimately lose in the end.

"Second, the Court thinks about cases like this as akin to contract formation. Conditions attached to an offer of federal money have to be clear, the Court reasons, because it would be unfair to impose requirements on the states that accept the offer if those requirements weren’t obvious at the time the offer was accepted. But here, the complaining states are those that rejected the purported offer. These are not offerees bound to a contract that includes a hidden term; they are offerees not bound to a contract because they rejected it. The Pennhurst analysis is inapplicable."

Wrong. Because the states believed the subsidies were coming even if they rejected the "contract." The terms of the contract were known in that way.

In fact, states like Virginia have filed a brief making the argument that they didn't know the terms so it's unfair. http://www.washingtonpost.com/r/201... Virginia Amicus Brief in King v. Burwell.pdf

The Clear Notice doctrine is important and cannot undone because the offer was rejected rather than accepted. The Clear Notice doctrine means the offer must be known unambiguously, regardless. So if the states were under the impression that by rejecting the offer, its citizens would receive healthcare in almost the exact same manner as if they accepted the offer, then that's the prevailing law and nothing in the text can change that years after the fact. It is perprosterous to argue that the SCOTUS says states cannot accept conditions they unaware of but can subsequently reject conditions they are unaware of.

This has been reaffirmed in cases Kennedy wrote the Opinion for, as well as Alito. I might have said Scalia when I meant Alito, but he wrote it in Arlington SD v Murphy just a few years ago.


And you're over-reading Yates. There's not a justice on the Court that thinks context shouldn't be consulted in determining the meaning of a term or phrase used by Congress.[/QUOTE]

But there is no way a rational person can read the context of the entire law and assume the subsidies were only intended for the states. It makes no sense. It only works in isolation.

Also, in yates, Alito dissented from what you just said, so it has happened.


Gonna do both posts here and break yours out a bit.

The exchanges are "a marketplace where individuals and small businesses will be able to shop for health insurance at competitive prices. Insurance companies will have an incentive to participate in this exchange because it lets them compete for millions of new customers. As one big group, these customers will have greater leverage to bargain with the insurance companies for better prices and quality coverage. This is how large companies and government employees get affordable insurance. It's how everyone in this Congress gets affordable insurance. And it's time to give every American the same opportunity that we give ourselves." This is important, because "consumers do better when there is choice and competition. That's how the market works. Unfortunately, in 34 states, 75 percent of the insurance market is controlled by five or fewer companies. In Alabama, almost 90 percent is controlled by just one company. And without competition, the price of insurance goes up and quality goes down. And it makes it easier for insurance companies to treat their customers badly -- by cherry-picking the healthiest individuals and trying to drop the sickest, by overcharging small businesses who have no leverage, and by jacking up rates."

Put another way, exchanges--marketplaces "that . . . operate something like a Travelocity Web site for insurance policies"--"fix a fundamental flaw in the present system by giving small businesses and individuals a broad choice of insurance policies at competitive prices. Right now, such buyers typically have few affordable options." But "[w]ithout careful design and adequate rules of fair play, and without letting enough buyers participate to create a robust market, the exchange might not actually stimulate new competition among the nation’s health insurers. . . . The risk is that many local markets could end up looking much as they do today — with small businesses and individuals at the mercy of too few insurers wielding too much power in their regions."

Or, again, exchanges are "an attempt to inject some retail competition into a marketplace that today is not exactly teeming with bargains. Theoretically, they’d allow individuals and small businesses to band together and get better prices and more variety in health insurance options – the kinds of breaks that big corporations can negotiate for their employees today."

First off, let's establish one thing. The small business aspects are irrelevant (they never got subsidies but rather tax breaks, they have a different exchange SHOP, so they're completely out of the equation. So what I say below completely ignores small businesses and is not part of the conversation.

Now, none of the above is true without the subsidies. Your own fucking links imply as much.

I don't even understand what you're trying to prove in the above statement. As I've said before, the federal exchanges make no sense without the subsidies. Everything you said above cannot exist without the subsidies. Without the mandate, subisidies, and community rating the exchanges cannot function as intended. I don't care what political rhetoric you want to quote, what i'm saying is mathematical fact. You cannot increase leverage without the subsidies. Without them, the exact opposite happens.

In addition to providing greater leverage to consumers in an attempt to control costs, "[t]he exchanges would offer individuals who do not have employer-sponsored health insurance and some small businesses a choice of health care plans, providing standardized information on areas such as benefits and cost, making it easier to shop for coverage." Former Secretary of HHS Sebelius agreed, when announcing the launch of Healthcare.gov: "HealthCare.gov will help take some of the mystery out of shopping for health insurance. For too long, it was confusing to identify your options and compare plans. HealthCare.gov makes comparison shopping easier with a new insurance finder that allows users to answer a few basic questions and receive information about insurance options that could work for them. The site makes a system that thrived on complication and confusion easier to understand. This kind of transparency helps create informed consumers which increases competition, reduces prices and improves quality."

What you're describing here is not an insurance exchange but rather the Kayak.com of insurance pricing. Yes, one of the additional benefits of the way the exchanges have been set up is they display prices ala Kayak.com, but that is not what the exchange is. The insurance exchanges are the actual products being offered. And it makes no sense Congress to crease an federal exchange without the subsidies because such a plan fucking ruins the entire market in said state and they're not ignorant of this fact. Also, the kayak.com setup and data collection is basically rendered useless when nobody can fucking buy insurance because the market is ruined without the subsidies.

Your reductionist theory that the exchanges are simply about providing credits to eligible taxpayers doesn't stand up to scrutiny against the statutory functions assigned to the exchanges or against contemporaneous expressions of the purpose of the exchanges.

No, this is a straw man argument.

I have never argued that setting up a federal exchange can serve no other plausible purpose without the subsidies. I said, setting up the federal exchanges without subsidies makes no fucking sense. These are distinctly different arguments.

An insurance marketplace that has an individual mandate, community rating, and no subsidies makes no fucking sense. Why create such an exchange?

The ACA's state exchanges has the subsidies. In light of that, telling the federal gov't to make one if the state doesn't makes no sense without those subsidies. It would be created a nearly non-existent market (and a much smaller one than existed prior). It does the exact opposite of the intended goal. If that's the intention, the states were completely unaware. And although Congress can pass laws with unintended consequences (they do so all the time) this was not one of them because they understood what it meant to not provide subsidies.

That's the part you have never addressed. Why would Congress intentionally set up a failed exchange in this scenario?
 
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