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[Crisco]

That's the part you have never addressed. Why would Congress intentionally set up a failed exchange in this scenario?

Oh because a failed exchange is part of the threat. Not only will your citizens not get subsidies, we're going to completely fuck up your state's individual health insurance market! That's what they actually believe.

 

[Black Mamba]

Oh because a failed exchange is part of the threat. Not only will your citizens not get subsidies, we're going to completely fuck up your state's individual health insurance market! That's what they actually believe.

But then it comes down to Clear Notice and the states received no such clear notice regarding a lack of subsidies.

If you look at the intent/language of the whole statute, King fails. If you look at it as ambiguous, King fails. If you realize no such threat was given Clear Notice, King fails.

King fails every which way.

 

[WayneMorse]

Does anyone think Mark Kirk despite his best efforts is going to survive next year? That seat has high turnover and nobody since Alan Dixon reelection in 1986 has held that seat for more than 1 term.

If Tammy Duckworth's gonna be his challenger then probably not.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Do you have a link to this? The problem is that assuming credits would be available in every state could be premised either on the availability of credits through FFEs or on the further assumption that every state would establish its own exchange. But without specifics, I can't really respond effectively.

Didn't I already show something akin to this with the CBO's scoring of a bill introduced after the ACA (where they didn't really specify anything regarding the bolded anyway)?

I digress, however, with a related question that might provide better contextual basis for the CBO links I'm about to post: When, exactly, was the IRS's rule put into place?

March 2010: CBO estimates 5 million unsubsidized exchange enrollees out of 24 million at the end of its estimate period, corresponding with $464 billion in total outlays for subsidies and other related spending over 2010-19 (high-risk pools, collections/payments for reinsurance and risk adjustment)

March 2011: CBO now estimates 4 million unsubsidized exchange enrollees out of 24 million, corresponding with $510 billion in total outlays for the same sections (and same period of time) as in the above link.

Further reports, data, etc. from the CBO regarding the Affordable Care Act. (Pages 8-10 correspond roughly with the actual debate in Congress, while everything since includes GOP efforts to repeal parts or all of the law in addition to the CBO's revisions.)

 

[ivysaur12]

So, Hillary hired a group to vet her internally a few weeks ago, especially about her as the Secretary of State. Seems like their plan has begun: taking potential issues and putting them public very early, before she's even run. See, the Clinton Foundation's contributions from foreign groups and:

 

[Teggy]

Ugh, why the hell would you do this?

 

[NYCmetsfan]

So, Hillary hired a group to vet her internally a few weeks ago, especially about her as the Secretary of State. Seems like their plan has begun: taking potential issues and putting them public very early, before she's even run. See, the Clinton Foundation's contributions from foreign groups and:

I just can't see this stuff sticking or mattering,. It is smart though to get out it early

and

‏@ZekeJMiller 37s37 seconds ago
But which GOPer could credibly argue that they didn't use a private email account while in office?

She'll release stuff from it and if people demand more she can ask any of them for their entire private emails.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

These attacks aren't likely to stick.

This story just highlights the shadowness of the clintons, this has been know for decades. Its not news and nobody is going to change their votes. You can also plead ignorance.

The foreign donations is flawed because its attacking charity and accusing clinton of a kind of disloyalty. Again this doesn't appeal to the voters that will matter in 2016

Benghazi is the same thing. Nobody whos vote is up for grabs is going to think she is disloyal or not protecting americans.

 

[ivysaur12]

Yeah, I mean. Maybe it'll stick. Or:

United States Trends · Change
#SometimesIWishICould
#RawDailyShow
#EncourageEveryoneIn4Words
#RAWNewark
#ShahsofSunset
Andre Johnson
FINALLY I CAN SEE BOTH COLORS
Kandy Ho
Tempest
Nets 110 - Warriors 108

(As I said in the other thread, I'm really aghast by this, but I don't see it sticking and I see releasing it now as a smart move)

 

[NeoXChaos]

I wonder where the announcement is going to be? Any idea guys?

A big venue in NY
A swing state like FL or OH?

Is it going to be an exploratory committee or the whole shibang?

 

[NeoXChaos]

These attacks aren't likely to stick.

This story just highlights the shadowness of the clintons, this has been know for decades. Its not news and nobody is going to change their votes. You can also plead ignorance.

The foreign donations is flawed because its attacking charity and accusing clinton of a kind of disloyalty. Again this doesn't appeal to the voters that will matter in 2016

Benghazi is the same thing. Nobody whos vote is up for grabs is going to think she is disloyal or not protecting americans.

The media is going to hamstrung her. She needs to answer this and get this behind her fast. We know how over-dramatic the media will be on this.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

The media is going to hamstrung her. She needs to answer this and get this behind her fast. We know how over-dramatic the media will be on this.

its been a few hours. state will get most of the flack anyways

 

[Jooney]

'A state department bombshell reveals Madame Secretary Clinton using personal email to conduct government business. What is Hillary trying to hide now?

A special investigative Benghazi report tonight, only on Hannity'.

 

[NeoXChaos]

If she does not get through this, more stuff comes out and the media slaughters her, I cant promise I wont Diablos over this situation.

 

[B-Dubs]

If she does not get through this, more stuff comes out and the media slaughters her, I cant promise I wont Diablos over this situation.

It'll be fine, the campaigns haven't even started yet. This is coming out now on purpose, it gives her the time and space to explain without the need to rush.

 

[HylianTom]

If she does not get through this, more stuff comes out and the media slaughters her, I cant promise I wont Diablos over this situation.

It's still waaaay too early for anything sort of panic. We have major SCOTUS rulings, the protracted implementation of a marriage ruling in resistant states, the clown car campaign trail, the clown car circus debates, the weekly Congressional dysfunction resulting in DHS shutdowns, etc etc - and the comedy that layers-over all of these goodies.

My theory? The GOP has screamed "SCANDAL! SCANDAL!" about Hillary for so long that most voters reflexively say, "sure.. sure.. that's nice. Now go run outside and play, dearie. Mommy's trying to balance her checkbook before Dancing With the Bachelor comes on."

 

[NeoXChaos]

So if your Hillary Clinton, whats your explanation?

 

[Diablos]

I'm telling you, he's probably on the phone with someone right now!

 

[HylianTom]

So if your Hillary Clinton, whats your explanation?

No earthly idea here. Hopefully her team is coming up with something plausible. *bites nails*

 

[NYCmetsfan]

http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.co...73522000&bicmp=AD&smtyp=aut&bicmlukp=WT.mc_id

Common core is telling our kids that murder isn't wrong!

 

[NeoXChaos]

Can Democrats Retake the Senate in 2016?

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/03/senate-elections-2016-115674.html?hp=t4_r#.VPU5dfnF-fg

All Democrats have to do to re-take the Senate is to win the three yellow toss-up states where they have a natural advantage, plus a couple of the current “lean Republican” states that have voted for Obama. And Democrats will need only one “lean R” state if the party wins the White House, guaranteeing that a Democratic vice president would break a 50-50 Senate tie.

This appears doable. The Democrats’ job in 2016 is not much different than the GOP’s task last November. Republicans had, first, to hold their 14 seats in ruby red states plus Maine, where Republican incumbent Susan Collins was never in danger; and second, pick up at least six of the large pool of 21 Democratic-held seats. There were seven generally Republican states in the South and West (Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota, and West Virginia) that were ripe for the plucking. As it happened, the GOP swept these seven and added the swing states of Colorado and Iowa, for a net gain of nine.
Thus, another Senate flip in 2016, this time to the Democrats, isn’t difficult to imagine, but it’s far from a sure thing.

In recent presidential cycles, there has been a consistent uptick in the correlation between Senate and presidential election outcomes. That is to say, the Senate result in a state has tended to be increasingly aligned with the state’s presidential result. Excluding Maine and Vermont (where independents Angus King and Bernie Sanders won, respectively), the correlation in 2012 between Senate and presidential results was a strong .78 (1.0 would be strongest). This was the third straight cycle to see an increase in this correlation, and it is the highest since 1956, as shown in the chart below.

 

[B-Dubs]

I'm telling you, he's probably on the phone with someone right now!

 

[jamesinclair]

If she does not get through this, more stuff comes out and the media slaughters her, I cant promise I wont Diablos over this situation.

Why would anyone be upset at her being buried early so we get a decent candidate instead?

 

[Aaron Strife]

Can Democrats Retake the Senate in 2016?

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/03/senate-elections-2016-115674.html?hp=t4_r#.VPU5dfnF-fg

In 2012 Democrats won in several states where Obama lost - Indiana (this was a pickup), Missouri, Montana, and North Dakota. Republicans only won in one state where Romney lost, Nevada.

With that in mind it's hard to see Democrats not at least getting to 50. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Illinois and New Hampshire will almost certainly vote for the Democratic candidate.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Why would anyone be upset at her being buried early so we get a decent candidate instead?

decent candidate? who do you honestly believe is better than Clinton?

Warren? Sanders? Webb? LOL

The clown car that is the GOP primary? No guarantee the dynastic Jeb Bush is going to make it completely void of scars and positions that will doom him in the general. Walker and Christie will self implode. Cruz? a landslide in the making.


No matter what else comes out she is still the favorite to win the nomination and a favorite currently for the general. If you look at her through the lens of 2008 and didnt like her then and still feel that way, chances are you were never going to support her anyway. Like that guy in the thread said "great, reason for me not to vote", is effectively IMO a vote for the Republican.

 

[ivysaur12]

In 2012 Democrats won in several states where Obama lost - Indiana (this was a pickup), Missouri, Montana, and North Dakota. Republicans only won in one state where Romney lost, Nevada.

With that in mind it's hard to see Democrats not at least getting to 50. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Illinois and New Hampshire will almost certainly vote for the Democratic candidate.

It's very likely they'll get 50. The real challenge is to get enough of a cushion for any losses in 2018.

Except for Heidi Heitkamp, who will be Senatress for eternity.

 

[PhoenixDark]

So, Hillary hired a group to vet her internally a few weeks ago, especially about her as the Secretary of State. Seems like their plan has begun: taking potential issues and putting them public very early, before she's even run. See, the Clinton Foundation's contributions from foreign groups and:

Starting to think Scott Walker can beat Hillary. This is bad.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Starting to think Scott Walker can beat Hillary. This is bad.

lol

 

[ivysaur12]

Starting to think Scott Walker can beat Hillary. This is bad.

Aaaaaaaaand we're back!!!!!!

HAPPY 2016 ELECTION EVERYONE

 

[NeoXChaos]

Have we forgotten that Clinton hasn't even announced a run yet and we are all acting like the campaign is in earnest?

Podesta is CM. He knows how to handle this. No doubt she will be asked this in a debate. Better now this year instead of October 2016 like ivysaur said.

 

[B-Dubs]

Starting to think Scott Walker can beat Hillary. This is bad.

Walker hasn't gone one event without saying something dumb.

 

[thepotatoman]

Hillary is still going to be our next president, but this sort of thing could provide just enough of an opening to at least get someone like Sanders strong enough to make a fight out of it and push her left.

 

[Aaron Strife]

It's very likely they'll get 50. The real challenge is to get enough of a cushion for any losses in 2018.

Except for Heidi Heitkamp, who will be Senatress for eternity.

I would say 54 seats are needed, so a pickup of 8. That would mean winning North Carolina, Ohio, Florida and Arizona.

Then in 2018, if Democrats could pick up Nevada they could then afford to lose the remaining five Romney Democrats (WV, MO, MT, IN and sadly ND) and still end up with a 50-50 split.

But don't worry, because then in 2020 Hillary will get re-elected in a landslide and Colorado, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina and Georgia are as good as ours.

I think the real question is what effect Julian Castro's historic win of Texas in 2024 will have on Ted Cruz's reelection.

 

[ivysaur12]

I would say 54 seats are needed, so a pickup of 8. That would mean winning North Carolina, Ohio, Florida and Arizona.

Then in 2018, if Democrats could pick up Nevada they could then afford to lose the remaining five Romney Democrats (WV, MO, MT, IN and sadly ND) and still end up with a 50-50 split.

But don't worry, because then in 2020 Hillary will get re-elected in a landslide and Colorado, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina and Georgia are as good as ours.

I think the real question is what effect Julian Castro's historic win of Texas in 2024 will have on Ted Cruz's reelection.

NEVER.

 

[Chichikov]

Starting to think Scott Walker can beat Hillary. This is bad.

 

[ivysaur12]

In non Hill related news:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/03/us-usa-politics-carson-idUSKBN0LZ0F420150303?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=twitter

(Reuters) - Ben Carson, a retired surgeon popular with Tea Party conservatives, has formally created an exploratory committee to run for president, according to his campaign chief executive, Terry Giles, the Wall Street Journal reported.

With the exploratory committee, Carson can raise money that he can transfer to his campaign once it begins, the Journal said. (on.wsj.com/18hKgAj)

He has made a number of hires lately, including a national finance director and aides in several early voting states, Giles said, adding that the campaign would soon announce more "major players," who will join Carson's team, the newspaper said.

Carson, a former neurosurgeon at Maryland-based Johns Hopkins University, has no prior political experience. He is a conservative commentator and author of "One Nation," which topped the New York Times bestseller list in June.

In February, the 63-year-old Carson said he could form a committee to explore a bid for the nomination and make a formal announcement in May.

He had ranked fourth among potential Republican candidates in a Fox News poll of potential voters in Iowa, coming in behind former Florida Governor Job Bush, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul.

 

[Oblivion]

This is great:

http://www.johnhodgman.com/post/112540831413/the-cartoonist-has-no-idea-how-net-neutrality

 

[Oblivion]

In non Hill related news:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/03/us-usa-politics-carson-idUSKBN0LZ0F420150303?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=twitter

Yes.

YES.

YES!

 

[Jooney]

People are already diablosing at the Hillary news? It's going to be a long campaign season...

 

[ivysaur12]

People are already diablosing at the Hillary news? It's going to be a long campaign season...

18 months!!!

 

[Black Mamba]

This is great:

http://www.johnhodgman.com/post/112540831413/the-cartoonist-has-no-idea-how-net-neutrality

OMG @ that website.

the cartoons they find (to make fun of)...OMG.

People get paid to be racist. Sigh.

Shameful.

 

[ivysaur12]

POLLS

http://fox4kc.com/2015/02/20/blunt-beats-kander-in-early-political-poll/

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — It didn’t take long. One day after 33-year-old Democrat Secretary of State Jason Kander announced he’ll take on Republican one-term U.S. Senator Roy Blunt, a new poll is out showing he has an uphill climb; at least an early one.

Remington Research Group conducted the poll in the hours after Kander’s announcement on Thursday, February 19. It shows that the Army veteran trails the Republican incumbent by 13 points. Blunt polls at 49%, Kander at 36%, with 14% undecided. The poll of 957 likely voters is weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2016 General Election and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2%

Kander is the only Democrat to announce so far. Blunt hasn’t formally announced, but is expected to see a second senate term.

In the survey, conducted for Missouri Scout, a political newsletter, Blunt has a 39% favorability rating, while Kander comes in at 26%. But fully 54% of the likely voters have no opinion of Kander, meaning he has room to develop his image as he campaigns and becomes better known.

The poll also shows an uphill battle for presumed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. The Democrat trails three Republican opponents in hypothetical match ups in Missouri. If it’s another Bush-Clinton match up (Jeb versus Hillary), the former Florida governor outpolls the former First Lady 50% to 40% with 10% undecided.

Mrs. Clinton also trails both Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and Kentucky U.S. Senator Rand Paul in Missouri by five points.

Wow at Blunt's favorability. It'll be interesting to see what happens once Kander increases his name recognition.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/232939-hassan-leads-ayotte-in-new-hampshire-senate-poll

New Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) leads Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) in a potential Senate match-up for 2016, according to an NBC News-Marist poll.

Hassan takes 48 percent support over Ayotte at 44 percent, the survey found. Seven percent said they’re undecided.

Ayotte announced in November she would seek reelection to the Senate in 2016, and she’s moving quickly to marshal her resources. Last week, Ayotte hired a campaign manager, Ben Sparks, who served in the same role for now-Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) in his 2014 victory over former Sen. Mark Begich (D-Alaska).

Ayotte had more than $2 million cash on hand at the end of 2014, according to Federal Election Commission filings. She has also been mentioned as a potential GOP vice presidential candidate.

 

[Diablos]

Hillary using a personal email for official business is weird. Nothing to Diablos over though. It's a non story in 2016.

The Repubs can have MO.

 

[jamesinclair]

decent candidate? who do you honestly believe is better than Clinton?

Uh, anybody?

I'm not interested in another war-mongering nanny state republican in office.

 

[benjipwns]

Well, at least Hillary wasn't using a fake alias like award winner Richard Windsor was to evade federal laws.

That we know of.

Yet.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

 

[benjipwns]

Sane Center-Left Democrats Attempt to Fight Back Against The Overpowering Communist Elizabeth Warren Wing of Party

Centrist Democrats are gathering their forces to fight back against the “Elizabeth Warren wing” of their party, fearing a sharp turn to the left could prove disastrous in the 2016 elections.

For months, moderate Democrats have kept silent, as Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s (D-Mass.) barbed attacks against Wall Street, income inequality and the “rigged economy” thrilled the base and stirred desire for a more populist approach.

But with the race for the White House set to begin, centrists are moving to seize back the agenda.

The New Democrat Coalition (NDC), a caucus of moderate Democrats in the House, plans to unveil an economic policy platform as soon as this week in an attempt to chart a different course.

"I have great respect for Sen. Warren — she's a tremendous leader,” said Rep. Scott Peters (D-Calif.), one of the members working on the policy proposal. “My own preference is to create a message without bashing businesses or workers, [the latter of which] happens on the other side."

Peters said that, if Democrats are going to win back the House and Senate, "it's going to be through the work of the New Democrat Coalition."

"To the extent that Republicans beat up on workers and Democrats beat up on employers — I'm not sure that offers voters much of a vision," Peters said.

Warren’s rapid ascent has highlighted growing tensions in the Democratic Party about its identity in the post-Obama era.

...

Progressives distrust Hillary Clinton and are pushing Warren to challenge her from the left in the presidential election, though Warren has repeatedly rebuffed their pleas.

Warren spokeswoman Lacey Rose said in a statement to The Hill that “Warren is a relentless fighter for priorities that will help level the playing field for middle-class families.”

Publicly, Democratic lawmakers are hesitant to discuss a growing rift.

When asked about disagreements between centrists and the Warren wing, one Democratic member of Congress demurred.
"There's no need to get me in trouble," the lawmaker said, laughing. "I don't need an angry phone call from Bill Clinton."

...

Gabe Horwitz, director of Third Way’s economic program, said moderates have been arguing the case for rebranding the Democratic Party around “the middle class and middle-class prosperity.”

“In the last election, Democrats, as a party, offered a message of fairness. Voters responded, and they responded really negatively,” Horwitz said. “Democrats offered fairness, and voters wanted prosperity and growth.”

...

Democracy For America founder Howard Dean, who has backed Clinton for president, said Warren is “right on policy, but the rhetoric needs to be toned down.”

“Our program cannot be soak the rich — that's a mistake and alienates middle class people. But on substance, the Warren wing is correct,” said Dean.

“The rhetoric about wealth creation needs to be scaled back because Americans like wealth creation,” he added. “The level playing field argument wins it for us. The reason you do not want to talk about ‘tax the rich’ is because when middle class people hear it, they hear ‘they're going to raise our taxes.’ Democrats can't do that.”

...

In an appearance on MSNBC's "Politics Nation" less than a week later, Warren said voters would have to "wait and see" whether Clinton is a progressive warrior.

“I want to hear what she wants to run on and what she says she wants to do — that's what campaigns are supposed to be about,” she said.

Hard-Left President for Life Barack Obama Plans to Raise Hundreds of Billions in Taxes Through Executive Action

White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest confirmed Monday that President Obama is "very interested" in the idea of raising taxes through unilateral executive action.

"The president certainly has not indicated any reticence in using his executive authority to try and advance an agenda that benefits middle class Americans," Earnest said in response to a question about Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) calling on Obama to raise more than $100 billion in taxes through IRS executive action.

"Now I don't want to leave you with the impression that there is some imminent announcement, there is not, at least that I know of," Earnest continued. "But the president has asked his team to examine the array of executive authorities that are available to him to try to make progress on his goals. So I am not in a position to talk in any detail at this point, but the president is very interested in this avenue generally," Earnest finished.

Sanders sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Jack Lew Friday identifying a number of executive actions he believes the IRS could take, without any input from Congress

Speaking of Richard Windsor...

A federal judge warned the EPA on Monday not to discriminate against conservative groups in how it responds to open-records requests, issuing a legal spanking to the agency that he said may have lied to the court and showed “apathy and carelessness” in carrying out the law.

Judge Royce C. Lamberth said he couldn’t prove that officials intentionally destroyed documents, but he described as “absurdity” the way the Environmental Protection Agency handled a Freedom of Information Act request from the Landmark Legal Foundation and then the court case stemming from it — including late last week admitting that it misled the court about how it went about searching for documents.

In a scorching 25-page opinion, the judge accused the agency of insulting him by first claiming it had conducted a full search for records, then years later retracted that claim in a footnote to another document without giving any explanation for how it erred.

“The recurrent instances of disregard that EPA employees display for FOIA obligations should not be tolerated by the agency,” the judge said. “This court would implore the executive branch to take greater responsibility in ensuring that all EPA FOIA requests — regardless of the political affiliation of the requester — are treated with equal respect and conscientiousness.”

...

Judge Lamberth pointedly noted that the EPA delayed some of its follow-through on the request by Landmark until after the 2012 elections and said explanations by several EPA officials for why they failed to live up to the law defied reason.

...

Judge Lamberth singled out the actions of two employees.

One, Nena Shaw, he said, either showed “utter indifference” to the law or lied to the court about the efforts she made to provide records to Landmark.

The other, Eric W. Wachter, a key EPA official identified as overseeing the open-records search, told the court several years ago that he had conducted a thorough search for records Landmark requested. On Friday, however, the Justice Department quietly retracted those assertions.

Ronald C. Machen, the U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia, said Mr. Wachter was acting in good faith throughout and that the EPA never claimed it had conducted the search correctly, so Mr. Wachter didn’t lie to the court.

Just like with the IRS, more proof that the 2012 election was stolen by Obama.

 

[jamesinclair]

Sane Center-Left Democrats Attempt to Fight Back Against The Overpowering Communist Elizabeth Warren Wing of Party


Hard-Left President for Life Barack Obama Plans to Raise Hundreds of Billions in Taxes Through Executive Action

A strong pro-wall street policy is exactly what the democrats need to win the hearts and minds of the american people!

 

[benjipwns]

A strong pro-wall street policy is exactly what the democrats need to win the hearts and minds of the american people!

It worked in 2008 and 2012!

 

[Cloudy]

Bibi not even pretending that he isn't trying to torpedo the P5+1 deal. Unreal