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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

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Did they actually play recordings for Republicans? Now, that seems treasonous if you don't report that immediately to the administration. "Yeah, I was just in a meeting with foreign leaders who played us tapes of them spying on our negotiations with the enemy. It's cool."
 

Chichikov

Member
I have to say HeCantKeepGettingAwayWithIt.gif is the greatest political meme of the year, and it better be on the title of the next thread.

It also can work well with pretty much everything -

VqO6JX3.gif


9qSJzU7.gif
 

HylianTom

Banned
So, this is a cross post from another topic in OT.. Did anyone else see this Meerkat broadcast?

Last night (starting around 1015PM, EST), Steve Kornacki (from MSNBC) did a broadcast with Josh Barrow from a bakery bar in NYC; they did an entire informal 90-minute current events show while they were drinking beer and eating donuts. They covered the media, the upcoming presidential race, who Hillary should choose as VP, Ted Cruz, convention timing, GOP primaries, whether college athletes should be reimbursed, voting demographics, personal stories, etc etc.

They were able to speak bluntly, curse, tell naughty jokes, take questions from viewers - all without a damn TV commercial every three minutes. It was better than pretty much anything on cable news, unfiltered, imperfect, free-allowing, blunt. Steve says he'll be doing this on a regular basis, with all sorts of guests dropping-in.

.. there were a ton of moments where it was reminiscent of PoliGAF conversations. Really good fun.
 
a reminder that the washington post still pays Richard Cohen for his opinion

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...12b468-d17a-11e4-a62f-ee745911a4ff_story.html

Ferguson has become the liberal Benghazi. It is more of a cause than a place, more of an ideological statement than an incident. Ferguson was not the racist murder it was thought to be, and Benghazi was not an incident in which the Obama administration’s incompetence or timidity allowed four Americans to die. The facts argue otherwise.

A grand jury studied what happened and did not indict Wilson. Eric Holder’s Justice Department reached the same conclusion. Let me offer another conclusion: If Brown was not criminally shot because he was black, then possibly the cop was accused because he was white. Who was the stereotyped individual here?

This dude just loves getting paid to write racist shit.


oh and ted cruz is advertising on gaf
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Wow, Peter King went in hard on Cruz and Rand Paul. Hilarious.
 

Wilsongt

Member
You actually made me check wikipedia to see if Truman was still alive, you bastard.

JImmy Carter is still alive. Let's have him run for president just to see the GOP in an infinite loop of stupid as they try to say Carter is the worst President since Obama. But Obama is the worst president since Carter. But Carter is the worst president since Obama. But Obama is the worst president since Carter.
 
JImmy Carter is still alive. Let's have him run for president just to see the GOP in an infinite loop of stupid as they try to say Carter is the worst President since Obama. But Obama is the worst president since Carter. But Carter is the worst president since Obama. But Obama is the worst president since Carter.
Carter is a better man than the U.S. deserves.
 
Bayh or bust. Unless another Murdoch shows up, it will be impossible to win this seat. Hopefully McCain and Grassley retire.
We can win AZ even if McCain doesn't retire. His approval ratings are dreadful. He might even get primaried out. Also Sinema would be a very formidable candidate.

Grassley however is stupidly popular so yes we'd need him to retire... Wouldn't be as annoying if Iowa didn't elect a Bachmann clone to their other seat for the next six years.

Beyond the usual suspects (OH/FL/PA/WI/IL/NH/NC) it would behoove Democrats to look to expand the map. We got a good candidate in MO, Bayh would make IN very winnable, GA/AZ are winnable under the right circumstances, AK could be on the map with third party shenanigans a la 2010...
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
JImmy Carter is still alive. Let's have him run for president just to see the GOP in an infinite loop of stupid as they try to say Carter is the worst President since Obama. But Obama is the worst president since Carter. But Carter is the worst president since Obama. But Obama is the worst president since Carter.

I support this idea.
 
Just dropping in to say hello. I will probably be lurking here a lot going forward.

I had stayed out of politics the last several years. I used to be one of those "the parties are basically the same" dudes, and its clear I was wrong. Recent events have made it too difficult to stay out.

Politically, I consider myself to be pretty liberal. I live in FL having moved here from IL few years back. Kinda nice to be in a "battleground" state now. I will definitely do what I can to prevent this state from going Red in '16 (and '18!!!).

So yeah.
 
Just dropping in to say hello. I will probably be lurking here a lot going forward.

I had stayed out of politics the last several years. I used to be one of those "the parties are basically the same" dudes, and its clear I was wrong. Recent events have made it too difficult to stay out.

Politically, I consider myself to be pretty liberal. I live in FL having moved here from IL few years back. Kinda nice to be in a "battleground" state now. I will definitely do what I can to prevent this state from going Red in '16 (and '18!!!).

So yeah.

Cheers, dude. Always nice when a cynic sees the light.
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
"Way overstates" in a Supreme Court opinion:

Eugene Volokh said:
From today’s majority opinion, by Justice Kagan, in Omnicare, Inc. v. Laborers District Council Construction Industry Pension Fund:

Moreover, Omnicare way overstates both the looseness of the inquiry Congress has mandated and the breadth of liability that approach threatens.​

This is the first occurrence of “way overstates” in a published American court opinion, and possibly of “way” to modify a verb more generally (though that’s hard to search for). Can any of you think of some earlier examples? I’ve seen cases using “way off” and “way out,” but “way” followed immediately by a verb — which strikes me as somewhat more colloquial than “way off” and “way out” — seems rarer to me.

Ed Whelan will not be pleased.
 

Cat

Member
Just dropping in to say hello. I will probably be lurking here a lot going forward.

I had stayed out of politics the last several years. I used to be one of those "the parties are basically the same" dudes, and its clear I was wrong. Recent events have made it too difficult to stay out.

Politically, I consider myself to be pretty liberal. I live in FL having moved here from IL few years back. Kinda nice to be in a "battleground" state now. I will definitely do what I can to prevent this state from going Red in '16 (and '18!!!).

So yeah.

Welcome! I don't post much in this thread though I peek in from time to time.

~~~

Since I know San Antonio's (my hometown) former mayor is sometimes name-dropped as a possible VP pick for Clinton, here's a picture of them together:

CA47g2yXIAAkVDL.jpg

https://twitter.com/SecretaryCastro/status/580466838993240065/photo/1

Also on the subject of San Antonio mayors, there's a debate tomorrow night at UTSA for upcoming local elections.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
We can win AZ even if McCain doesn't retire. His approval ratings are dreadful. He might even get primaried out. Also Sinema would be a very formidable candidate.

Grassley however is stupidly popular so yes we'd need him to retire... Wouldn't be as annoying if Iowa didn't elect a Bachmann clone to their other seat for the next six years.

Beyond the usual suspects (OH/FL/PA/WI/IL/NH/NC) it would behoove Democrats to look to expand the map. We got a good candidate in MO, Bayh would make IN very winnable, GA/AZ are winnable under the right circumstances, AK could be on the map with third party shenanigans a la 2010...

why though? Is it because of 2018?
 
Republican presidential candidate Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), whose push to defund Obamacare led to a government shutdown, now plans to get insured through the federal exchange.

"We will presumably go on the exchange and sign up for health care and we're in the process of transitioning over to do that," Cruz told the Des Moines Register on Tuesday.

Previously, Cruz had been covered under his wife's blue-chip employer health insurance plan.

But Bloomberg reported that Heidi Nelson Cruz, a managing director for Goldman Sachs in Houston, had taken an unpaid leave from the company in order to pitch in on her husband's presidential campaign. Cruz confirmed to the Des Moines Register that his wife took a leave from the Wall Street firm.

When the Register asked Cruz if having to purchase insurance on the federal health care exchange bothered him, Cruz sidestepped the question.

"It is written in the law that members will be on the exchanges without subsidies just like millions of Americans so that's – I think the same rules should apply to all of us. Members of Congress should not be exempt," he told the newspaper, adding that he'd like still like to see Obamacare abolished.

Ironically, it's Cruz's fellow Republican senators that compelled him to turn to Obamacare after losing health insurance through his wife's employer. An amendment Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) inserted into the law required all members of Congress and their staffers to purchase health insurance on the federal marketplace.

lolz


In an interview with CBS This Morning, Ted Cruz divulged that he used to love classic rock, but switched over to country because of 9/11. “My music taste changed on 9/11,” the presidential candidate said. “I actually intellectually find this very curious, but on 9/11, I didn’t like how rock music responded,” he said. “And country music, collectively, the way they responded, it resonated with me.” The inevitably boring interview question of what music a politician listens to has, in this case, yielded a fascinating and revealing answer.

lolz lolz
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Welcome! I don't post much in this thread though I peek in from time to time.

~~~

Since I know San Antonio's (my hometown) former mayor is sometimes name-dropped as a possible VP pick for Clinton, here's a picture of them together:

CA47g2yXIAAkVDL.jpg

https://twitter.com/SecretaryCastro/status/580466838993240065/photo/1

Also on the subject of San Antonio mayors, there's a debate tomorrow night at UTSA for upcoming local elections.

Future President and VP right here.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
The 8th Circuit will hear the appeals to their gay marriage ban cases for Nebraska, Arkansas, South Dakota, and Missouri on May 12th, which makes total sense because it's not like there are arguments at the SCOTUS on the exact same questions on April 28th.
 
why though? Is it because of 2018?
Why not? The bigger the majority the better.

And as you said, 2018. The way I see it Democrats will need a minimum of 54 seats after the 2016 election to have a chance at holding a majority in 2018. There are only five Democrats in Romney states left but they're all up again that year - McCaskill (MO), Manchin (WV), Tester (MT), Heitkamp (ND) and Donnelly (IN). In contrast there's only one obvious pickup opportunity, Heller (NV), so if Democrats started out with 54 seats and picked up Nevada, they could lose the other five and still have a majority by tiebreaker. Alternatively if they could hold onto just one of those seats they'd probably be okay, but that rides on a big 2016 win.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Manchin almost seems popular enough that even if he were up for reelection, he would still win. It's really about McCaskill, Tester, Heitkamp, and Donnelly.
 
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) on Monday admitted that Republicans need to do some “soul searching” on climate change and blamed former Vice President Al Gore for making it difficult to make progress on the issue. […]

Graham blamed Gore, who was awarded the Nobel Prize in 2007 for his efforts to combat climate change, for blocking progress on the issue.

“The problem is Al Gore has turned this thing into a religion,” Graham said. “You know, climate change is not a religious problem for me, it is an economic, it is an environmental problem.”
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/graham-blames-gore-gops-science-problem

Why can't Obama lead?

If not for the pesky Al Gore, us GOPers would have a better national Climate Change Policy!


These people are such babies. Always someone else's fault.
 

Jooney

Member
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/graham-blames-gore-gops-science-problem

Why can't Obama lead?

If not for the pesky Al Gore, us GOPers would have a better national Climate Change Policy!


These people are such babies. Always someone else's fault.

Sounds like someone needs a lecture on personal responsibility.

And that Ted Cruz - Obamacare irony. Good lord that's too delicious.

---

Looks like SCOTUS will be bringing the hammer down on EPA tomorrow in oral arguments for Michigan vs EPA.

Issue: Whether the Environmental Protection Agency unreasonably refused to consider costs in determining whether it is appropriate to regulate hazardous air pollutants emitted by electric utilities.

At issue is whether the costs associated with regulations set by EPA are too costly to implement. I would expect the court will stick with its usual pro-business stance and rule in favour of the states (Michigan is one of 21 states, I believe), but I'm not a lawyer.
 
Manchin almost seems popular enough that even if he were up for reelection, he would still win. It's really about McCaskill, Tester, Heitkamp, and Donnelly.
I don't know about Manchin. West Virginia has gone pretty hard to the Republicans over the past couple of years and the last time PPP polled the state his approval rating was pretty mediocre. Plus there's been rumors he wants to retire soon to run for governor. Of course, WV is one state where I could believe that the president being black is causing them to collectively lose their shit and it might not be so far gone that Democrats wouldn't have a fighting chance once Obama's out of office, but I'm not counting on it.

They're all strong incumbents but as we learned from 2014 and 2010 that means jack shit in a midterm with the way red states are realigning.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
I don't know about Manchin. West Virginia has gone pretty hard to the Republicans over the past couple of years and the last time PPP polled the state his approval rating was pretty mediocre. Plus there's been rumors he wants to retire soon to run for governor. Of course, WV is one state where I could believe that the president being black is causing them to collectively lose their shit and it might not be so far gone that Democrats wouldn't have a fighting chance once Obama's out of office, but I'm not counting on it.

They're all strong incumbents but as we learned from 2014 and 2010 that means jack shit in a midterm with the way red states are realigning.

Well the way its heading, all future senate seats will be fought on swing state turf within the next 5-10 years. Long gone is the power of incumbency in these states that elect the opposite party that gives its state EC votes. When the 5 Romney D's do end up being Republican control & people like Grassley go, the transformation will be complete. 2010 and 2014 solidify that sentiment. The senate is probably headed starting in 2016 a flip-flop every 2 years.

With each party consolidating Senate seats in its presidential strongholds, the prognosis is for narrow Senate majorities tipped by a few swing states and the handful of senators who win on the other side's natural terrain. Looking forward, the Senate's "natural division ... is very close to 50-50," says Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Manchin should have a fighting chance without Obama on the ballot tbh. Not that I care, I'd love to see him lose.

He's not close to progressive. But people like Manchin and Bayh and Heitkamp are the only Democrats in their states that can win. Who would you really have? Moore Capito and Coats over Manchin and Bayh? No way.
 
Well the way its heading, all future senate seats will be fought on swing state turf within the next 5-10 years. Long gone is the power of incumbency in these states that elect the opposite party that gives its state EC votes. When the 5 Romney D's do end up being Republican control & people like Grassley go, the transformation will be complete. 2010 and 2014 solidify that sentiment.
Just because I was curious here are all the Obama state Republican senators:

Cory Gardner (CO) - Up in 2020
Marco Rubio (FL) - Up in 2016
Mark Kirk (IL) - Up in 2016
Chuck Grassley (IA) - Up in 2016
Joni Ernst (IA) - Up in 2020
Susan Collins (ME) - Up in 2020
Dean Heller (NV) - Up in 2018
Kelly Ayotte (NH) - Up in 2016
Rob Portman (OH) - Up in 2016
Pat Toomey (PA) - Up in 2016
Ron Johnson (WI) - Up in 2016

As well as Dan Coats (IN), Richard Burr (NC) both up in 2016 and Thom Tillis (NC) up in 2020.

One can hope that Democrats will continue to run the tables on Senate elections during presidential years like they did in 2008 and 2012 where only a handful of close Senate races went to the Republicans.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Just because I was curious here are all the Obama state Republican senators:

Cory Gardner (CO) - Up in 2020
Marco Rubio (FL) - Up in 2016
Mark Kirk (IL) - Up in 2016
Chuck Grassley (IA) - Up in 2016
Joni Ernst (IA) - Up in 2020
Susan Collins (ME) - Up in 2020
Dean Heller (NV) - Up in 2018
Kelly Ayotte (NH) - Up in 2016
Rob Portman (OH) - Up in 2016
Pat Toomey (PA) - Up in 2016
Ron Johnson (WI) - Up in 2016

As well as Dan Coats (IN), Richard Burr (NC) both up in 2016 and Thom Tillis (NC) up in 2020.

One can hope that Democrats will continue to run the tables on Senate elections during presidential years like they did in 2008 and 2012 where only a handful of close Senate races went to the Republicans.

I wonder, at what point, Susan Collins will retire. Or when electoral partisanship will finally catch up to her.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
I wonder, at what point, Susan Collins will retire. Or when electoral partisanship will finally catch up to her.

Maine seems to be very "inelastic" so not likely for a while. Under the right circumstance like MA for Republicans(Scott Brown win, Baker win), Democrats can win southern and mountain statewide races but looking at the future environment, I wonder how long that last. 2002 elections fit that bill.

To answer your collins notion, I wonder that with Grassley but he is in such a state where it wont touch him in his lifetime but his successor probably. Is Ernst really going to be the next Grassley in 2020? I doubt it.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
lolz




lolz lolz

Gotta get that southern hick vote.

I mean, what is his argument with Springsteen's "The Rising?" Sorry that it wasn't slapping you in the face with an American flag like Toby Keith.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
2020 I would hope.

If we couldnt take her out in 08, explain how she is taken out in 2020?

With Ayotte possibly out next year, She will be the last remaining R senator from the Northeast. Thinking back, none of the parties are shutout in any region of the country except for the 09-11 period in the NE in the House. I wonder how long that last. Because of VA, NC & FL, the south(not deep south) wont ever be R dominated.
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
The FCC keeps doing the Lord's work (PDF):

FCC said:
In this Notice of Apparent Liability for Forfeiture, we find that WDBJ Television, Inc. (WDBJ or Licensee) . . . aired graphic and sexually explicit material over the Station on July 12, 2012, at approximately 6:00 p.m., in apparent willful violation of federal restrictions on the broadcast of indecent material . . . [and] is apparently liable for a forfeiture in the amount of three hundred twenty-five thousand dollars ($325,000).

...

4. The materials submitted by WDBJ confirm that it broadcast a naked, erect penis and sexual manipulation thereof during an early evening news broadcast. . . . The recording submitted by WDBJ shows that the broadcast included images of the former adult film star. The first image is video in which only her face and shoulders can be seen. in the video, she has her finger in her mouth, moving it up and down on her tongue, with her lips partially open and then closing as she appears to suck on her finger. . . . At the time that the image is displayed, a reporter goes on to state: "he's a former porn star." The Licensee obtained the video image online from the website of a distributor of the woman's adult films. The website, which was partially displayed along with the video image, is bordered on the right side by boxes showing video clips from other films that do not appear to show the woman who is the subject of the news report.

5. One of these video clips, displayed in a box, contains the image of sexual activity involving manipulation of an erect penis. Although the box does not show the entire body or face of the apparently nude male depicted, the image shows a hand moving up and down the length of the shaft of the erect penis. WDBJ asserts that this image was displayed for less than three seconds. There are also other images of the woman who is the subject of the story displayed at various times during the report, including on in which she appears to be sitting on a bed, wearing a bra.

6. The Licensee claims that the smaller boxes, including the image of the penis, were not visible on the monitors in the Station's editing bay, and therefore, the Station's News Director and other management personnel who had reviewed the story did not see the indecent material prior to the broadcast. However, a photojournalist on the Station's staff, who prepared the report, obtained the screen shots from the adult video distributor's website used in the broadcast. . . . The photojournalist does not claim that those boxes were not visible when he downloaded the material from the adult website, but rather simply that he did not notice them.


Eugene Volokh comments:

Eugene Volokh said:
Note that Justices Ginsburg and Thomas have recently argued that TV broadcasting should be treated as fully protected under the First Amendment, and that the indecency restrictions should generally be unconstitutional (though that would still leave the question whether the material displayed here — when displayed to unwilling viewers and in a place where children will see it — was not just indecent but obscene and thus still unprotected, when distributed). Still, the current First Amendment rule appears to be that the broadcasting of nudity, and especially of visible genitals being sexually stimulated, is not constitutionally protected.

All I know is, I'd hate to be the guy that has to describe a handjob in a formal publication like that.
 
If we couldnt take her out in 08, explain how she is taken out in 2020?

With Ayotte possibly out next year, She will be the last remaining R senator from the Northeast. Thinking back, none of the parties are shutout in any region of the country except for the 09-11 period in the NE in the House. I wonder how long that last. Because of VA, NC & FL, the south(not deep south) wont ever be R dominated.
Mainly I'm just hoping she'll retire by then. I think she'll get re-elected as long as she runs.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-qOKc5Lej3qeyKfXMGHFfuUh8tvydVguPlcqerCcH7I/edit#gid=0

It's old, but if any one wants to play around with the Cook PVI shifts from 2012 to 2016...

246 districts moved leftward from 2012 to 2016. I didn't realize that KY-3 was getting more Democratic. Interesting.

EDIT: Nebraska's 2nd had a 2.01 shift between 2012 and 2016 from a R+6 to R+4. By the time that Brad Ashford is up for reelection in 2018, what's that seat going to be?

EDIT: 31 States had leftward shifts from 2012 to their 2016 guess (from highest shift to smallest):

Hawaii
Vermont
California
Maryland
Virginia
Alaska
Nebraska
New Mexico
New Jersey
Delaware
Indiana
North Carolina
Colorado
New York
Nevada
Georgia
Oregon
Mississippi
Washington
North Dakota
Connecticut
Texas
Montana
Rhode Island
Illinois
South Carolina
Wisconsin
Iowa
Maine

Rightward (from smallest shift to highest):

Michigan
Florida
Idaho
Ohio
Minnesota
New Hampshire
District of Columbia
Kansas
South Dakota
Alabama
Pennsylvania
Arizona
Wyoming
Massachusetts
Missouri
Oklahoma
Utah
Louisiana
Kentucky
Tennessee
West Virginia
Arkansas
 
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-qOKc5Lej3qeyKfXMGHFfuUh8tvydVguPlcqerCcH7I/edit#gid=0

It's old, but if any one wants to play around with the Cook PVI shifts from 2012 to 2016...

246 districts moved leftward from 2012 to 2016. I didn't realize that KY-3 was getting more Democratic. Interesting.

EDIT: Nebraska's 2nd had a 2.01 shift between 2012 and 2016 from a R+6 to R+4. By the time that Brad Ashford is up for reelection in 2018, what's that seat going to be?
You mean 2012 to 2014 right

218th district is R+2
 

ivysaur12

Banned
You mean 2012 to 2014 right

These are 2016 estimates based on 2008 and 2012 data. That's how Cook does their PVI. They don't do re-estimate for midterms.

You mean 2012 to 2014 right

218th district is R+2

Oh, no no, sort by shift, not by partisan lean.

EDIT: Whoops. The congressional districts were estimated in 2014. My bad. The states are not, which is where I was originally looking.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
I do wonder why Indiana had a 1.01 D shift. Is it because of what happened in 2008? Seems to go against the notion of Indiana's rust belt status and Indianapolis being a generally conservative city, as far as cities go.

That being said, the population growth of Gary Metro and Indianapolis are much higher than that of the rural areas of the state.
 
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