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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

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Trouble

Banned
just what Brussels needs!

http://www.politico.eu/

and papa bear dropping knowledge

CDE3p_tUMAAtyJN.png:large

Those figuratively poor, poor affluents.
 
When was the last time when multiple candidates of the same were similarly strong? I see a few candidates sticking around for awhile after some primaries. That could cause a lot of tension within the party .
 

Jooney

Member
HAHAHAHAHAHA

Have fun with that colossal waste of money. Walker is so incredibly unlikeable. His ratings will plummet when he hits the spotlight.

Red meat conservatives love him though. And he is able to make bank. Developing likeability for the general can come later.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Thanks, Obama.

Michele Bachmann says the rapture is coming, thanks to President Barack Obama’s policies on Iran’s nuclear program and marriage equality.

In a radio interview last week, Bachmann, the former Minnesota Republican congresswoman, told "End Times" host Jan Markell, “We need to realize how close this clock is getting to the midnight hour.”

“We in our lifetimes potentially could see Jesus Christ returning to earth and the rapture of the church,” Bachmann said. “We see the destruction, but this was a destruction that was foretold.”

Bachmann cited the Obama administration’s nuclear negotiations with Iran as a cause. The U.S. and five partner nations are discussing a deal with Iran that would prevent the country from developing or obtaining nuclear weapons.

“We are literally watching, month by month, the speed move up to a level we’ve never seen before with these events," Bachmann said. "Barack Obama is intent. It is his number one goal to ensure that Iran has a nuclear weapon.”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/...ture_n_7104136.html?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000592
 

HylianTom

Banned
When was the last time when multiple candidates of the same were similarly strong? I see a few candidates sticking around for awhile after some primaries. That could cause a lot of tension within the party .
Since we now have so many viable GOP candidates who will each be bankrolled by various billionaires and able to afford to campaign late into the primary calendar, I'm still holding-out hope for either a brokered convention or for a scenario where one candidate bitterly wins by the tiniest of delegate margins.
 

Gotchaye

Member
Don't... christians... want the rapture to happen as soon as possible? I can't quite understand why she'd argue that as a negative.

Kind of, for Bachmann types, but that doesn't mean that you should try to bring it about by being the prophesied Antichrist.

Prophecy is weird that way. Some evil thing has to happen before some really good thing happens, but the evil thing is still evil. It's not altogether different from thinking that all dead babies go to heaven, whereas many babies that don't die as babies don't end up in heaven, but that people still have a duty to refrain from killing babies.

You do see a certain sort of Christian trying to do morally neutral or good things because those things have to happen in order for the rest of the prophecy to kick off. There are people who align with Zionists, where wanting Israel to exist as a Jewish state is not itself obviously evil, even though they more-or-less believe that there will be another genocide of Jews only if there's an Israel. But they don't want to nuke Israel themselves.
 
Don't... christians... want the rapture to happen as soon as possible? I can't quite understand why she'd argue that as a negative.

It comes off as "The Rapture is a great thing...but only if America survives and is seen as the second holiest nation in God's eyes." Also, bear in mind along with the Rapture comes the Great Tribulation, a 7-year period of suffering for all mankind.
 
HAHAHAHAHAHA

Have fun with that colossal waste of money. Walker is so incredibly unlikeable. His ratings will plummet when he hits the spotlight.

He decisively won three state wide elections in a traditionally blue state despite being a hard right conservative and built up a solid coalition of independent and conservative voters.

Must be doing something right.
 
He decisively won three state wide elections in a traditionally blue state despite being a hard right conservative and built up a solid coalition of independent and conservative voters.

Must be doing something right.

That something being "happening to only ever run in off-year elections"
 
Ahm... 2008?

Since we now have so many viable GOP candidates who will each be bankrolled by various billionaires and able to afford to campaign late into the primary calendar, I'm still holding-out hope for either a brokered convention or for a scenario where one candidate bitterly wins by the tiniest of delegate margins.

There's about 5-6 very strong candidates that is capable raising a lot of money and have a lot of support in many different ways, their percentage differences is only a few points apart and has been that way for sometime. There's potential chance that some others that may not be considered strong now end up having a chance to be.

Their views are pretty divergent, appeal to the voters in many different ways. and while overlapping in some case, but at the same time they are very strong either in terms of money, influence, appeal, etc unlike were the radical ones had little support in the previous elections. Despite the fact for some of them they have no chance of winning; I think they are influential enough to shake things up in a big way. I was wondering how all that will effect the election on the GOP side. To me it seems like there will be some pretty visible infighting( like a big portion of the money will be used to fight each other instead of Hillary) and no matter who they choose GOP voters will end up getting disappointed.

I don't know much about the GOP in 2008 as I didn't follow politics since I was pretty young, but I think somewhere in this thread or somewhere else that Obama was leading Hillary down the road. There's like 13-20 candidates running on the GOP side and quite a few of the are really tight, I think I read an article before that this is rare.
 

bomma_man

Member
The Disposition of Justice Souter's Papers



I mean, on the one hand, it's Justice Souter, so who cares? But on the other, the justices' papers provide an important glimpse into arguably the most secretive branch of the federal government. Here's an old(ish) LA Times op-ed on this point: What are the Supreme Court justices hiding?

Why don't they automatically become public when they die?

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/12/01/great-paper-caper
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
With that, we can unofficially declare Walker the Republican nominee for President?

Doubt it, who did they back last time? Pretty sure it wasn't Romney.

Fun fact: The Kochs jumped behind Michelle Bachman first in 2012 and also supported Rick Perry. I think people overestimate their influence on name alone.

He decisively won three state wide elections in a traditionally blue state despite being a hard right conservative and built up a solid coalition of independent and conservative voters.

Must be doing something right.

Midterms, and people in Wisconsin hate him. His favorable rating is staggeringly low. Last check was in the 30s. I'm sure that will translate well to the general election.

I still think Bush will eventually be the nominee as he comes off as most likeable and least crazy of the bunch, much like Romney.
 

Diablos

Member
It's Jeb. Guys like Kasich might try but Jeb will overshadow them. He'll have the 'moderate' GOP vote locked down and the far-right will have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon.

Scott Walker is probably the GOP's best chance of successfully running a candidate against Bush, so it was smart for the Koch Brothers to invest in him. However, like Mitt Romney, I think Jeb has the aura of inevitability surrounding him. Someone in here said he's the new Giuliani...that's totally wrong. That guy would be Chris Christie.

I've gotta say though, unlike Santorum and Perry, I do think Walker will put up a tougher fight. Santorum is a has-been Senator circa 2006 who incessantly whines like a baby, and Perry is a complete neanderthal. Walker isn't a genius himself but he is a sitting Governor who can point to conservative decisions, governance and results in a progressive state, and mold that into a cohesive campaign message.

Rubio will be anyone's VP, btw. Totally expecting that.
 
Rubio will be anyone's VP, btw. Totally expecting that.

Not if Bush wins the nomination. If the GOP wins the presidency, they'll win by a slim margin, and a Bush/Rubio ticket would mean that Rubio could very likely come up short of 270 in the VP election, since Florida electors wouldn't be able to vote for both Bush and Rubio.

If Bush wins the nomination he'll probably pick someone outside of the presidential field entirely.
 

Diablos

Member
Not if Bush wins the nomination. If the GOP wins the presidency, they'll win by a slim margin, and a Bush/Rubio ticket would mean that Rubio could very likely come up short of 270 in the VP election, since Florida electors wouldn't be able to vote for both Bush and Rubio.

If Bush wins the nomination he'll probably pick someone outside of the presidential field entirely.
Rubio could pull a Dick Cheney by moving to another state and claiming it as his primary residence. Easy peasy.
 
Rubio could pull a Dick Cheney by moving to another state and claiming it as his primary residence. Easy peasy.
Rubio isn't going to make that sacrifice just to possibly be vice president. It could really hurt his reputation in Florida.

Rubio's ties to Florida are much stronger than Cheney's ties to Texas.
 

Crisco

Banned
Fun fact: The Kochs jumped behind Michelle Bachman first in 2012 and also supported Rick Perry. I think people overestimate their influence on name alone.



Midterms, and people in Wisconsin hate him. His favorable rating is staggeringly low. Last check was in the 30s. I'm sure that will translate well to the general election.

I still think Bush will eventually be the nominee as he comes off as most likeable and least crazy of the bunch, much like Romney.

Seems pretty calculated to me. Support the candidates who will pull the entire platform to the right, ensuring whoever wins the nomination commits to policies in line with your agenda. I don't think being a billionaire makes you a genius, but the Kochs aren't mentally challenged either (I think), which is what it would take to believe any of those names had a chance (including Walker). The polling against Hillary is almost prohibitive, no way they actually want him to be the nominee.
 
New Hampshire general election

The hopefuls who come closest to Clinton are Rand Paul and Scott Walker, each of whom trail by 9 at 49/40. The ones who do the worst are Chris Christie (51/36) and Ted Cruz (52/37) who each have 15 point deficits. In between are Marco Rubio who trails by 12 at 50/38, and Jeb Bush (49/36), Ben Carson (51/38), Mike Huckabee (51/38), and Rick Perry (also 51/38) who all trail by 13 points.
Can't imagine many in the GOP feeling NH is a swing state. Even Warren and Biden (who tend to poll much worse than Clinton) beat Walker here. It feels like the swing states in 2016 will come down to IA, CO, OH, FL, NC, VA.

Also:

-Now that Scott Brown isn't on the ballot for the Senate anymore his favorability numbers have tanked with New Hampshire voters- only 30% have a positive opinion of him now to 56% with a negative one. Those numbers are way down from a 44/46 favorability on the eve of the election last fall. The decline is mostly among Republican leaning voters- with those who supported Mitt Romney for President in 2012 he's gone from being at 77/13 favorability all the way down to 57/29. Very few Granite State voters claim Brown as one of their own at this point either- 25% consider him to be a New Hampshirite to 63% who say they don't.
Hilarious.
 
Ah, so he is running. Going to be interesting to see how he plays it; I suspect that he'll refuse to play ball and get run off the road during the primaries.

He's been 100% unapologetic on issues like Medicaid expansion and Common Core, and I don't see that changing in a primary.

Which will cost him a shot in 2016, but maybe he's truly eyeing 2020.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
He's been 100% unapologetic on issues like Medicaid expansion and Common Core, and I don't see that changing in a primary.

Which will cost him a shot in 2016, but maybe he's truly eyeing 2020.

Nope. Not the worst idea for him to do if he's really eyeing a 2020 run, too. It could also explain his relatively late entry into the fray.
 
Nope. Not the worst idea for him to do if he's really eyeing a 2020 run, too. It could also explain his relatively late entry into the fray.

Unless Ohio goes tits up in the next three years, he'll be well-positioned for 2020.

He'll be done as governor in January 2019, so he'll be able to gear up for the 2020 primaries without having to worry about running a state.
 
He's been 100% unapologetic on issues like Medicaid expansion and Common Core, and I don't see that changing in a primary.

Which will cost him a shot in 2016, but maybe he's truly eyeing 2020.

He'd have to do well this year to get a 2020 shot, most likely. Usually the GOP turns to whoever came in second (Romney, McCain, HW Bush, Reagan, etc) last time.

The other problem is that I'm not sure three losses in a row will do anything to change the GOP. Maybe if the dem winner was someone like O'Malley - but Hillary is the perfect candidate to drive them further insane. Sure we'll get a few months of talk about moderate voices taking over, just as we saw in late 2012/early 2013. But once that 2018 midterm date comes into view the GOP will once again turn to the far right. And they'll probably do really well once again, and thus set the stage for another general election loss.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
I still think there will be a low ceiling when it comes to the ACA that won't be crossed for years to come because of the high polarization of the bill, but that's still interesting/encouraging news nonetheless.
 
I try not to be mean-spirited and wish ill upon another state, but it's hard not to find some amusement in Texas' economic turn for the worse.

Especially when its leaders have been such insufferable braggarts for the past decade.
 
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