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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

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CNN polls the presidency

Overall, 17% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents back Bush for the GOP nomination, while 12% support Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. Paul and Rubio stand at 11% each, with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 9% and Cruz at 7%. Former neurosurgeon Ben Carson and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, both of whom placed second in CNN/ORC polls as recently as last fall, are now well behind the leader at 4% each.

Marco Rubio fares best against the former first lady, trailing Clinton by 14 points, 55% to 41%. Bush trails Clinton by 17 points, 56% to 39%. Christie and Paul fall 19 points behind Clinton, each putting up 39% to Clinton's 58%. Huckabee, Walker, Carson and Cruz each trail Clinton by more than 20 points.

Hillary dominates in the Democratic primary, naturally.

Who's ready for a repeat of 1964/1972/1984?

Christie's numbers are now the lowest they've ever been according to Quinnipiac as well. Remember when this guy was viewed as a serious contender?
 
quick, someone post this in gaming

CDDbqMlUIAAOio6.png
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Those numbers are, of course, going to tighten once a nominee is picked. But if Clinton is already clearing the 50% threshold, it's just about her not fucking up. Even a 5 point lead would make Indiana, Georgia, and Missouri at least a bit interesting (and being competitive in those states would really help the downticket races).

95% chance she was playing Tetris.

Noted accomplishments: First Lady, New York Senator, Secretary of State, Indigo League Champion.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
They wont hold but it does spell good news for Clinton Camp. I wonder how much that translates to the Electoral College?

Cook PVI:

Virginia: EVEN
Ohio: R+1
Florida: R+2
North Carolina: R+3
Missouri: R+5
Indiana: R+5
Georgia: R+6
Montana: R+7
Arizona: R+7
South Carolina: R+8
Mississippi: R+9
Texas: R+10
South Dakota: R+10
North Dakota: R+10
Tennessee: R+12
Nebraska: R+12
Louisiana: R+12
Kansas: R+12
Alaska: R+12
West Virginia: R+13
Kentucky: R+13
Arkansas: R+14
Alabama: R+14
Idaho: R+18
Oklahoma: R+19
Wyoming: R+22
Utah: R+22

Obviously this numbers will shrink. But if she were against, say, Cruz, you'd expect her to be competitive in the bottom of this list as of April 20, 2015. She won't be, but the idea behind the Cook PVI.
 
They wont hold but it does spell good news for Clinton Camp. I wonder how much that translates to the Electoral College?
If her final margin was a 14 point victory (which is the worst she does in that poll) and you assumed a uniform swing with the Cook PVI, she would have 503-518 electoral votes. The only states that would stay red are Idaho, Utah, Oklahoma and Wyoming. Arkansas and Alabama would be tied. Obviously there's no way this happens, though if it did I would expect Democrats to win a majority in the House and a decent majority in the Senate.
 
Those numbers are really outliers - she's not going to be getting a Reagan/LBJ landslide in this polarized political climate. She does have the potential to expand Obama's map though.

The key thing is that her numbers are up in every matchup compared to the same poll from a month ago, showing that her launch was a success and crucially that she's teflon. Scandals just don't effect her, whether it's Benghazigate, emailgate or Chipotlegate. The GOP and media have got their work cut out trying to swiftboat someone who voters has long formed an opinion of. That's an enormous advantage for a candidate.
 
Turnout will be an issue.
Dissatisfied liberals underestimate her appeal as a candidate; turnout will be fine. Many people love the Clintons. Personal scandals aside, Bill Clinton's presidency happened during a period of no wars, a booming economy and budget surpluses. Clinton/90s nostalgia alone will win a lot of votes for Hillary, and there will also be a significant number of people who will turn out if only to see a woman president in their lifetimes.
 

Crisco

Banned
First lady President, defending Obama's legacy achievements, either a Bush or someone far worse as the GOP candidate. Turnout will be just fine.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Even if we were to shed 4-5 points off of her lead for turnout (which seems a bit aggressive), that's still... A substantial lead.

Especially for a non incumbent.
 
What does Hillary offer hispanics, black people, and youth that isn't offered during your off-year elections?
Being a presidential candidate who will receive massively more coverage than every House and Senate candidate in 2014 combined?

The reason people don't turn out in midterms isn't because candidates aren't exciting or charismatic enough, it's because the media and voters don't give a shit.

But I mean, Jeb Bush is probably going to win New York anyway, so what's the point.
 
The reason people don't turn out in midterms isn't because candidates aren't exciting or charismatic enough, it's because the media and voters don't give a shit.

Isnt there a connection?

Name an exciting Senator or House person. Come on think harder, theres got to be one. Any of them?

Oh! Elizabeth Warren! The liberal wet dream.

For starters, a lot more people voted. Turnout for that special election totaled 2.25 million. Yesterday’s turnout is looking like it’s going to ring in around 3.1 million. Most important, though, is where all those extra voters came from. In the 2010 special election, the count in Boston was Coakley 105,544, Brown 46,575, out of a total of 153,827 votes. This time around, Warren won 74 percent of the city’s 247,464 ballots, racking up nearly 80,000 more votes than Coakley did. So while turnout in Massachusetts increased from the 2010 special election by about 37 percent, in Boston, it increased by 60 percent. (The nearly 100,000 additional people who showed up this year represent one-sixth of Boston’s total population!) Obviously, there’s going to be more interest in a presidential election than just a senate one, but there’s another big difference between 2010 and yesterday: While Coakley did notoriously little outreach to minority communities, Warren campaigned aggressively for their vote. She was also obviously helped by sharing a ticket with Barack Obama.
http://www.bostonmagazine.com/news/blog/2012/11/07/minorities-turnout-big-time-warren/

Exciting candidate = more media = higher turnout.

Obama was an exciting candidate. Hell, we was the most exciting candidate of the generation.

Gore? Mccain? Romneybot? Hillary? Kerry?

All boring old people offering the same old shit in a shiny old package.

2016 turnout wont be anywhere near 2008 turnout.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
I tend to think the "more exciting candidates" and the ones that poll in the mid to high 50s a year and a half before the election.
 
This argument sounds suspiciously like Fox News pundits arguing endlessly that Obama would lose in 2012 due to cratering African American turnout after black people had cast their historic vote in 2008. And then black turnout proved to be higher proportionally in 2012...

(Even Romney expressed his shock at Obama getting high Cleveland turnout in his concession call.)
 

pigeon

Banned
What does Hillary offer hispanics, black people, and youth that isn't offered during your off-year elections?

A presidency?

I mean, I think this is a pretty straightforward one. Low-engagement voters don't vote in midterms because they're low-engagement and the parties spend a lot less money and effort on increasing voter engagement in midterms.

Your article compares 2010 to 2012, and then says "wow, a lot more people voted in 2012 for some reason! It must be that Elizabeth Warren is a great candidate!" It's almost as if it was written by a hack trying to construct a narrative.
 
Your article compares 2010 to 2012, and then says "wow, a lot more people voted in 2012 for some reason! It must be that Elizabeth Warren is a great candidate!" It's almost as if it was written by a hack trying to construct a narrative.

I cant think of any other exciting senator or house member to look at data for, can you?
 
That CNN poll also shows in its crosstabs that 58% of Democrats are "enthusiastic" about Clinton's candidacy (compared to 26% just satisfied and 9% unsatisfied). Two thirds of Democratic women are enthusiastic.

Are there any statistics that show people aren't excited to vote for Hillary? Why would she do worse than Kerry or Gore (both of whom would have won with the demographics of 2016)?
 
Isnt there a connection?

Name an exciting Senator or House person. Come on think harder, theres got to be one. Any of them?

Oh! Elizabeth Warren! The liberal wet dream.

http://www.bostonmagazine.com/news/blog/2012/11/07/minorities-turnout-big-time-warren/

Exciting candidate = more media = higher turnout.
Hm, could there be one difference between 2010 and 2012 you're conveniently glossing over to prove a point?

Comparing Coakley to Warren doesn't even compare the general elections in those years, because the 2010 Mass. Senate election was a special election held in January.

B-Dubs said:
Please tell me this is sarcasm.
I didn't say it. jamesinclair did in another thread.
 
Y'know, i was gon make an argument that he could replace warren in his example with, say, Tom Wolf, buuut...

Tom Wolf’s historic victory on Tuesday night, the first time a challenger has defeated an incumbent governor in Pennsylvania, also came at a time of extremely poor voter turnout in the state.

Only 41.8 percent of Pennsylvanians cast a vote in the governor’s race, which is lower than every election since 1998, based on 99.25 percent of precincts reported. Turnout in 1998 was 41.7 percent.

still agree that dems should stop running so many freaking republican-lites in midterms, obv.
 
Hm, could there be one difference between 2010 and 2012 you're conveniently glossing over to prove a point?

Comparing Coakley to Warren doesn't even compare the general elections in those years, because the 2010 Mass. Senate election was a special election held in January.

I didn't say it. jamesinclair did in another thread.

So lets compare apples to apples, or Coakleys to Coakleys

Deval Patrick (obama 1.0) won his first election with 1,234,984 of 2,243,835
Deval Patrick (obama 1.0) won his second election with 1,112,283 of 2,319,963
Martha Coakley lost her election with 1,004,408 of 2,158,326

Turnout was down significantly, and she lost by 40,165 votes which was significantly made up of the lower turnout.

Martha Coakley is resembled Hillary in many ways, just like Deval resembled Obama in many ways (and no, Im not just referring to race, but yes, thats a factor).


The New York comment is being taken out of context.
 
Y'know, i was gon make an argument that he could replace warren in his example with, say, Tom Wolf, buuut...

still agree that dems should stop running so many freaking republican-lites in midterms, obv.
Minnesota also had two very unabashed incumbent liberal Democrats (Gov. Dayton, Sen. Franken) running for reelection and our turnout still cratered.

Midterm dropoff is real because the vast majority of Americans probably couldn't tell you who their Congressman is. No one cares.
 
It'll be a great advantage having exciting-senator™ Elizabeth Warren campaigning for Hillary to drive up turnout. Along with the star roster of Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, Hillary's VP (possibly Julian Castro), and Joe Biden crisscrossing the country to get youth/African Americans/Latinos to the polls to vote for the first female president.

Who have the GOP got as surrogates? Dubya? Romney?
 
Midterm dropoff is real because the vast majority of Americans probably couldn't tell you who their Congressman is. No one cares.

Can't see how blame for that doesn't reside squarely with the parties, however. It's up to them to make the voters care. Otherwise they just burning money for the sake of burning money.
 
So lets compare apples to apples, or Coakleys to Coakleys

Deval Patrick (obama 1.0) won his first election with 1,234,984 of 2,243,835
Deval Patrick (obama 1.0) won his second election with 1,112,283 of 2,319,963
Martha Coakley lost her election with 1,004,408 of 2,158,326

Turnout was down significantly, and she lost by 40,165 votes which was significantly made up of the lower turnout.

Martha Coakley is resembled Hillary in many ways, just like Deval resembled Obama in many ways (and no, Im not just referring to race, but yes, thats a factor).
Turnout in 2014 was even lower than it was in 2010, and that was everywhere - I don't really think you can infer a broad conclusion from that. Turnout was lower in Pennsylvania than it was in 2010, does that mean Tom Wolf was a bad candidate compared to Dan Onorato?

The New York comment is being taken out of context.
Explain how. You said Cuomo was such a disaster you wouldn't be surprised if New York flipped red. Maybe you wouldn't be surprised but I'm pretty sure everyone else who pays attention to politics would be.

Can't see how blame for that doesn't reside squarely with the parties, however. It's up to them to make the voters care. Otherwise they just burning money for the sake of burning money.
As much as I'd love to blame the politicians/parties for this one, it's not all on them. The GOP has a vested interest in keeping turnout low, sure, but the Democrats went balls out in 2014 to try and amp up turnout and turnout actually dropped compare to previous midterms. There's such a strong apathy towards everything but the presidential elections and the parties shouldn't be holding voters' hands to the voting booths. People should care - the fact that they sit out elections in which their mayors, governors, etc. are elected (who will have a far more direct effect on issues affecting their personal lives than the president) because they don't know what the difference between a Senator and a Congressman is is inexcusable.
 

Teggy

Member
Martha Coakley is resembled Hillary in many ways

Not sure where you get this from. And yes, I am from Massachusetts and voted for Coakley. In addition, Coakley-Brown and especially Coakley-Baker are vastly different elections than Cllinton-national GOP candidate
 
Explain how. You said Cuomo was such a disaster you wouldn't be surprised if New York flipped red. Maybe you wouldn't be surprised but I'm pretty sure everyone else who pays attention to politics would be.

The primary point of that exchange was "fuck Cuomo" and if anyone is going to kill the Democrat brand for a generation, it is him
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Martha Coakley is resembled Hillary in many ways, just like Deval resembled Obama in many ways (and no, Im not just referring to race, but yes, thats a factor).

Did you post this with a straight face? When you typed this, did you actually believe when your neurons were passing your thoughts to your fingers that this was something in here that actually resembled any sort of truth, backed up with any sort of empirical data?
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
The Disposition of Justice Souter's Papers

Gerard Magliocca said:
I have received a letter from Justice Souter stating that his papers (in the New Hampshire Historical Society) will be available on the 50th anniversary of his death. In other words, probably not while any of us are alive.

I mean, on the one hand, it's Justice Souter, so who cares? But on the other, the justices' papers provide an important glimpse into arguably the most secretive branch of the federal government. Here's an old(ish) LA Times op-ed on this point: What are the Supreme Court justices hiding?

Eric Segall said:
Recently, when Justice John Paul Stevens gave a talk at the law school where I teach, he was asked why these certiorari votes are not public. He paused and then said that, in his 35 years on the court, the issue of publicly disclosing such votes had "never come up, so he had never thought about the question.

His response says a lot about how the justices take for granted their secrets and the court's lack of transparency.

...

Partly because of the court's many secret practices, justices' personal records and papers are of vital historical significance. Although there is an important federal law governing what happens to a president's official records and papers after he leaves office, there is no similar statute — or even official policy — for Supreme Court justices. At present, they may keep, dispose or place conditions on their papers as they see fit.

Former Chief Justice Warren E. Burger's records, many of which are presumably administrative, will not be available to the public until 2026, even though he retired in 1986. Justice Byron R. White destroyed many of his files, including those relating to the landmark Miranda case, which dealt with police interrogations, and Justice William J. Brennan Jr. allowed one law professor exclusive access to his records for almost 20 years, much to the consternation of journalists and historians. Justice David H. Souter has embargoed his papers for 50 years.

I am not suggesting that the public should have immediate access upon retirement to all of a justice's official records, and the case can be made that certain pre-decisional documents should never be made public. But Supreme Court justices are government officials whose salaries are paid by the taxpayers, and their records, like those of the president, should be deemed public property and available for review after taking into account reasonable privacy concerns.
 
Christie is finished. Really don't see where he goes from here, beyond lobbying or some type of consulting job. I don't see him making it past the first four early contests (Iowa, NH, SC, Nevada).
 

Crisco

Banned
I think Citizens United will eventually be a good thing. While the GOP keeps winning all these local elections with national money, they will never be able to out raise a Democratic Presidential candidate bankrolled by Silicon Valley. They'll have to relent to some campaign finance reform limiting the influence of big money if they ever want the WH again.
 
Did you post this with a straight face? When you typed this, did you actually believe when your neurons were passing your thoughts to your fingers that this was something in here that actually resembled any sort of truth, backed up with any sort of empirical data?

I understand that you may not have followed Patricks tenure closely, but no need to be hostile.

He in many ways was a trial balloon for the Obama campaign from the Democrat party. His life story (Chicago, Harvard law, etc), and then his political campaign and then leadership role were remarkably similar to Obama's, but played out 2 years earlier. Some politicians run polls to test out the public response to potential positions. The Democrats had Deval.
 
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