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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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T

Teggy

Member
I feel like that's the first time Trump has ever written something that didn't end with "make america great again." He always seems to squeeze it in there.
 
R

Retromelon

Member
dramatis said:
They should add more fire Pokemon to Pokken
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M2HeORN.jpg


PBY said:
most offensive post in poligaf history
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Nah benji made a worse one once
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
NYCmetsfan said:
I firmly believed trump wouldn't win anything.

Needs to have a way of happening.
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BoboBrazil said:
It will be tough. Trump will have to implode. By the time Rubio has a chance of actually getting the nomination Trump will already have too many delegates.
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B-Dubs said:
If they can't stop Trump by South Carolina then you had better get ready to lose the pool.
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After March 15, the field narrows down for sure.

The advantage for Rubio is primaries after that are more liberal ones and Trump has a support ceiling.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
After March 15, the field narrows down for sure.

The advantage for Rubio is primaries after that are more liberal ones and Trump has a support ceiling.
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Trump has broad support both geographically and demographically, he can compete just fine in those states, especially since he's likely to be going into them with a huge delegate lead as the delegate allocation rules for GOP states favor the 1st place finisher significantly.
 
V

Veritigo_X

Member
I wanna see brainchild and Metaphoreus get into an argument. That would be something to behold.

Brainchild, Meta told me you're a punk! Don't take that!
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
REALITY CHECK: No one actually knows how to stop Donald Trump. If they knew, he would be stopped by now.
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https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/700018960402661376

2/ First, Donald Trump is going to win South Carolina. Don't get your hopes up about a miraculous surge for anyone else.

3/ The data I'm seeing suggests that far from being highly fluid, the race is actually settling into a pattern

4/ Trump is not subject to regional fluctuations in support because his coalition is attitudinal, not ideological

5/ The percentage of voters who think "F*ck it" is pretty constant from state to state.

6/ This means he gets 35% vs the current field. What's striking is how little difference vs New Hampshire

7/ At the same time, Trump support isn't necessarily *growing* as we might have expected coming out of NH.

8/ In fact, the pattern from IA>NH>SC is not one of state to state momentum but fixed patterns that are likely to repeat

9/ That means Trump=25% in caucuses, 30% in low turnout closed primaries, 35% in high turnout primaries like NH and SC

10/ This means fairly sizable regional fluctuations for Cruz or whomever the establishment candidate that emerges

11/ As we move to a three man race, Trump will have 40, Cruz will have 30, establishment candidate will have 30 *nationally*

12/ This puts Trump in pole position. Winnowing to 3 won't be enough. Field will need to winnow to 2 to defeat Trump under current dynamic

13/ It seems like we have a 50/50 shot if the field winnows to two, with very little margin for error

14/ Knocking out the cancer isn't going to happen. Best we can hope for is 20% reduction in the size of the tumor

15/ All of Trump's actions are straight from the radicalization playbook. I don't think it's a stretch to compare his tactics to jihadists.

16/ Do outrageous things that completely alienate over half the population but make supporters feel like part of something wild/exotic

17/ This means that many of his supporters simply aren't available to other campaigns. We need to accept this.

18/ Strategy is now one of containment. Of keeping the cancer from reaching 45%, or God forbid, 50%

19/ And that means immunizing/inoculating any reasonable people who still may be left out there.
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https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/699783580084543489
 
K

kirblar

Member
Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 15m15 minutes ago

Noteworthy that we're NOT seeing those "party elites think Trump's not so bad!" stories, as we were before Iowa.
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Translation: Elites were trying to keep Cruz out.
 
A

And_Gignac

Member
Why Bernie Sanders Wins Even if He Loses

To really dominate the proceedings, Sanders would need more than Jackson’s 26 percent of the delegates. A total closer to 40 percent would allow Sanders to claim representation of an ascendant progressive populist wing of the party. Sanders supporters, either taking his cue or acting on their own, could easily use the convention run-up to demand he or his fellow traveler Sen. Elizabeth Warren be nominated for vice president in order to make the party whole. Both options would be fiercely resisted by Clinton, who would worry about their willingness to echo her positions and messages. A possible compromise to satisfy the populists would be Sen. Sherrod Brown, who is very close to Warren and Sanders ideologically but has endorsed Clinton and hails from the key swing state of Ohio.

But that could cause friction with others in the party who want to see a person of color on the ticket, especially if Republicans nominate someone like Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio who would compete for Latino votes. The pressure to pick a rising star like HUD Secretary Julián Castro could collide with economic populist demands and inflict fresh wounds on the party.

Sanders himself probably cares less about the VP slot—he’s too old to treat it as a steppingstone to the presidency—than he does about controlling the party’s platform. He may well envision replicating what Hubert Humphrey pulled off in 1948. The Senate candidate from Minnesota changed the course of history, taking a minority report endorsing civil rights for blacks and forcing a vote on the convention floor to include it in the official platform. He narrowly won the vote, prompting a walkout by Deep South delegates and fundamentally transforming the Democratic Party.
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A very interesting read.

SANDERS ALREADY WON. Your faves will have to DEAL.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Melkr_ said:
Why Bernie Sanders Wins Even if He Loses



A very interested read.

SANDERS ALREADY WON. Your faves will have to DEAL.
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Ugh, I'm going to get shit for this...

But, no. If he loses he loses. This "Everyone can be a winner" shit just drives me nuts. I see it with my nephews who play soccer. It's okay to realize there are winners and there are losers. This coddling shit we do with people is just asinine. I lost a hell of a lot of things in my life, and I came out just fine.

I know that's not the point of the article. It's just me ranting at clouds. However, I mean, ya, if Bernie does better than other far left candidate, he can claim a moral victory of a sort. I assume that's why he got in the race to begin with.
 
B

brainchild

Banned
adam387 said:
Ugh, I'm going to get shit for this...

But, no. If he loses he loses. This "Everyone can be a winner" shit just drives me nuts. I see it with my nephews who play soccer. It's okay to realize there are winners and there are losers. This coddling shit we do with people is just asinine. I lost a hell of a lot of things in my life, and I came out just fine.

I know that's not the point of the article. It's just me ranting at clouds. However, I mean, ya, if Bernie does better than other far left candidate, he can claim a moral victory of a sort. I assume that's why he got in the race to begin with.
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Yeah, it comes across as pretty juvenile, I agree.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I'll admit Bernie won when I am standing on melkr to put the crown on the queens head, and you can run and tell that.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
One thing I agree with that article about is I would love Sherrod Brown to be in contention for VP. I mean, I don't want to lose the seat.....so it's not a great idea, but I love Brown. I would support the hell out of him if he had run for President.
 
N

NihonTiger90

Member
adam387 said:
One thing I agree with that article about is I would love Sherrod Brown to be in contention for VP. I mean, I don't want to lose the seat.....so it's not a great idea, but I love Brown. I would support the hell out of him if he had run for President.
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I agree with you, Adam. He's also one of the few Dems that people respect (even slightly) in the very Republican part of the state I live in.
 
G

Gruco

Banned
So basically....

Trump - going to win SC, capable of competing anywhere. Has a pretty steady share of support geographically. Likely to win big on March 1 and March 5.

Rubio - capable of competing in less extreme environments. Unlikely to move early but needs to win big on March 15. The late map favors him.

Cruz - dead in the water. Can only compete in hard right states where Trump is beating him. Requires success on 3/1 and 3/5 or he has no path. Because consolidation won't happen until 3/15, he's basically fucked in terms on being able to make a move in the states where he needs to.

Kasich and Bush will both compete over Ohio and Florida, making it hard for Rubio to win Ohio, though Rubio may win Florida. Trump will roll until the race gets down to 3 candidates after 3/15. At this point it will be close to impossible for Cruz or Rubio to get a majority or even plurality, but they will still compete hard to keep Trump from getting a majority. The late map and consolidation will favor Rubio so he can argue that things are "trending his way" until the bitter end. Cruz may just stick around to dick with Trump.

Bottom line? We're getting a convention fight. Rubio may be able to win outright if he takes Ohio, but this seems unlikely. Trump may be able to win outright if he wins Ohio and he racks up large margins where the delegate rules favor him. This is more likely than Rubio winning outright. Cruz can't win.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
NihonTiger90 said:
I agree with you, Adam. He's also one of the few Dems that people respect (even slightly) in the very Republican part of the state I live in.
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He's one of the few people that I would have considered supporting over Hillary. I love his wife as well. She's brilliant, and posts some really awesome stuff on Facebook. I met him once. He came to thank all of us who were working on his reelection. He would actually be a workable blend of Bernie and Hillary, IMO.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Gruco said:
So basically....

Trump - going to win SC, capable of competing anywhere. Has a pretty steady share of support geographically. Likely to win big on March 1 and March 5.

Rubio - capable of competing in less extreme environments. Unlikely to move early but needs to win big on March 15. The late map favors him.

Cruz - dead in the water. Can only compete in hard right states where Trump is beating him. Requires success on 3/1 and 3/5 or he has no path. Because consolidation won't happen until 3/15, he's basically fucked in terms on being able to make a move in the states where he needs to.

Kasich and Bush will both compete over Ohio and Florida, making it hard for Rubio to win Ohio, though Rubio may win Florida. Trump will roll until the race gets down to 3 candidates after 3/15. At this point it will be close to impossible for Cruz or Rubio to get a majority or even plurality, but they will still compete hard to keep Trump from getting a majority. The late map and consolidation will favor Rubio so he can argue that things are "trending his way" until the bitter end. Cruz may just stick around to dick with Trump.

Bottom line? We're getting a convention fight. Rubio may be able to win outright if he takes Ohio, but this seems unlikely. Trump may be able to win outright if he wins Ohio and he racks up large margins where the delegate rules favor him. This is more likely than Rubio winning outright. Cruz can't win.
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This is a good take, though I think I'm a bit more optimistic about Trump's odds of getting an outright majority.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Sam Wang on the lack of true proportionality in GOP states:
A walk through GOP pseudo-proportional delegate rules. What does finishing in first place with 35% of the vote typically get you?
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South Carolina: If second place lags by enough, up to all 50 delegates (100% of them). 2nd place, typically no more than 3-6 delegates. /2
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Nevada: 11 of 30 delegates (37%). Alaska: about 13 of 28 delegates (46%). Alabama: if nobody else above 20%, 43-50 out of 50 (86-100%).
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Arkansas: 21 of 40 delegates (52%). Georgia: 44 of 76 delegates (58%). Texas: 97 out of 155 delegates (63%).
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The list goes on. States will vary; Cruz/Rubio need this. Bottom line, candidate w/35% of vote nationally could get >50% of delegates.
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Those are the "proportional" rules, put in place to favor frontrunner and enhance the influence of individual states http://prospect.org/article/gop-nomination-rules-tilt-playing-field-toward-donald-trump
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T

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
If the standard of "winning" is "fundamentally changed the narrative going forward" than Bernie's victory is assured, just like OWS. That's a good thing. I like that. I want the narrative to be much more liberal in the future. But that's not the kind of victory he's shooting for right now
 
T

teiresias

Member
Y2Kev said:
I'll admit Bernie won when I am standing on melkr to put the crown on the queens head, and you can run and tell that.
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I just want DWS to come out at the convention and be all like,

"The wait is over kittens. In addition to the title of the next Leftist Superstar, the winner will receive a lifetime supply of Noam Chomsky's publications, and a cash prize of $100 million Wall Street Dollars. Now, as always I've consulted with the electorate and the superdelegates, but the final decision is mine to make.

The winner of DWS's Rigged Race, and America's Next Leftist Superstar is . . ."

Stay tuned!!
 
N

NihonTiger90

Member
adam387 said:
He's one of the few people that I would have considered supporting over Hillary. I love his wife as well. She's brilliant, and posts some really awesome stuff on Facebook. I met him once. He came to thank all of us who were working on his reelection. He would actually be a workable blend of Bernie and Hillary, IMO.
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I've met him during my work duties, and yeah, he and his wife are both very sharp and sincere. He visited here in 2014 even though he wasn't going to win the county and could have gone somewhere friendlier to Dems.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Basileus777 said:
This is a good take, though I think I'm a bit more optimistic about Trump's odds of getting an outright majority.
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Me too. I see him getting a nibble of support with each victory until he's uncatchable by March 15th. Even if it's a draw from March 15th onward, with he and Rubio trading wins, his accumulated lead from pre-March 15th contests should hold him over to where he wins on the first ballot at the convention.

It could be close. And no matter how it shakes-out - even if Rubio somehow gets the nomination - it's disastrous for the GOP. I'm guessing at how his mind works, but if he wins nonstop through mid-March and then narrowly loses, I can see him thinking that the nomination was "stolen" from him.

..

And Bernie has left his mark, no matter what. If Hillary is the nominee, his supporters get a voice in deciding whether his vision is judicially viable for the next 20-30 years..
 
U

User 463088

Banned
teiresias said:
I just want DWS to come out at the convention and be all like,

"The wait is over kittens. In addition to the title of the next Leftist Superstar, the winner will receive a lifetime supply of Noam Chomsky's publications, and a cash prize of $100 million Wall Street Dollars. Now, as always I've consulted with the electorate and the superdelegates, but the final decision is mine to make.

The winner of DWS's Rigged Race, and America's Next Leftist Superstar is . . ."

Stay tuned!!
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I love you.
giphy-4.gif
 
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