PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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cartoon_soldier said:
Still firmly believe Rubio will be GOP nominee
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He hasn't won a single contest, or even come close to winning a contest. He is also poised to lose his home-state which would be embarrassing to put it lightly. If it became a two person race sooner rather than later I'd agree he might have a chance, but SC will be a 3 way tie for the participation medal if the current polls are accurate, and the field won't winnow in a significant way.

Basileus777 said:
Sam Wang on the lack of true proportionality in GOP states:
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If Trump has more delegates from round one and then the establishment attempts to anoint Rubio they will have a rebellion to deal with from the base.
 
I don't live in Idaho anymore, and I know Idaho is no bastion of Democratic politics, but what they're doing on their website is interesting to me. To boost turnout, they're using Eventbrite so that you know where to go and when to go on the day of the caucus. Seems like a smart thing to do. Now, you don't have to register on Eventbrite because it is an open caucus but I think it's something that could be useful to boost turnout.

http://idahodems.org/caucus/
 
Cesare Borgia said:
Everyone realizes that if there is going to be an establishment candidate, it will be Rubio. Bush is finished. He sounded pretty confident Haley was going to endorse him at the last debate...
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She was at Jeb and W's rally the other day. She must have liked what Rubio told her a little more.
 
Veritigo_X said:
Trump's comments on Cruz's press conference.

Cbb6JzhWIAE8HY0.png:large


Time will tell, Teddy.
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Trump is savage damn.
 
Remember when we were asking "who's next?" on SCOTUS buckling?

Hatch: Don't block vote on SCOTUS nominee

Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) said Wednesday that he doesn't support filibustering President Obama's Supreme Court nominee as both sides prepare for a looming confirmation fight.

"I don't think we should filibuster Supreme Court nominees or any judicial nominees," he told CNN's Wolf Blitzer, asked if he would support a filibuster requiring 60 votes to overcome a procedural hurdle and get a final vote on a nomination.

Hatch's comments come as Senate Republicans quickly suggested that they believe the next president, not Obama, should fill the Supreme Court left vacant by Justice Antonin Scalia's death. That would allow for a Republican to potentially win the White House, nominate a conservative justice and maintain the Court's 5-4 balance.
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brainchild said:
Finally, a conceivable path to the nomination. I believe Nate is the first person to do this for Sanders since the start of this election season.
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The big caveat is I don't think we'll have enough data to lock in everyone demographically as to who supports Sanders and who supports Clinton until after Super Tuesday (and there's no guarantee this will be like 2008 where the race is stable at that point).
 
RastaMentality said:
Is it possible for Sanders to even win NY? That should be a lock for Hillary. California becoming relevant would be great for me though.
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Same, it'd be fun for once. That's a pretty ambitious list for Sanders, though. Kind of underscores how high of a hill he has to climb, not to mention his momentum being completely derailed after Super Tuesday.

If Clinton comes out and wins Kansas, Louisiana, and Nebraska, it's over.

EDIT: LOL I didn't see that he has to win New York. Yeah, no.
 
RastaMentality said:
Is it possible for Sanders to even win NY? That should be a lock for Hillary. California becoming relevant would be great for me though.
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Hillary would have to massively fuck up on an unprecedented level. The state generally liked her as Senator--sure everyone felt like she was a carpetbagger but she won the state over pretty quick--so expecting her to lose is insane. Combine that with how expensive campaigning here is and Bernie's team should have already written it off.
 
Republicans got too cocky blocking people from obscure positions in non-election years. Once they realize that they're being dicks about things people actually remember from 9th grade civics, and that said people can actually vote against them, it's over. They don't need another shutdown tier event right now.
 
Republicans are cracking on the SCOTUS nominee. If they give Obama's nominee a committee hearing they'll legitimize Obama's right to nominate someone, and then if it's someone who was already confirmed unanimously they'll be boxed in. Republicans have to deny the committee hearing or Obama's nominee will get confirmed.
 
Ecotic said:
Republicans are cracking on the SCOTUS nominee. If they give Obama's nominee a committee hearing they'll legitimize Obama's right to nominate someone, and then if it's someone who was already confirmed unanimously they'll be boxed in. Republicans have to deny the committee hearing or Obama's nominee will get confirmed.
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Hey Y2kev, do you know what this whole situation is for the GOP?
 
BoboBrazil said:
They still won't approve whoever he nominates. This is just dialing back due to all the heat they were receiving.
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If a moderate is nominated, they'll have to give him a pass at this point. Obstructing was always going to be a stupid gambit. They wouldn't be favored to win back the Whitehouse even without this situation, and months of their refusal to consider nominees dominating the news cycle would be a disaster for them.

Plus, if trump continues to lead, how much are republicans supposed to fight to make sure he gets to make the appointment?
 
Biden will be doing an interview on Maddow tomorrow night. Oh yes.

He was here in town today. His presence here is why the birds are singing a bit more sweetly, and the sky a little bit more azure.. 🍀
 
HylianTom said:
Biden will be doing an interview on Maddow tomorrow night. Oh yes.

He was here in town today. His presence here is why the birds are singing a bit more sweetly, and the sky a little bit more azure.. 🍀
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Aww yes. Diamond Joe making the skies blue.

Gonna be interested in seeing that one.

Black Republican said:
whats the minimum votes a SC nominee needs to pass?
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If I remember right a nominee can be fillibustered, but I doubt that's going to be an issue here. If Obama makes the right pick they'll have no choice.
 
B-Dubs said:
Aww yes. Diamond Joe making the skies blue.

Gonna be interested in seeing that one.



If I remember right a nominee can be fillibustered, but I doubt that's going to be an issue here. If Obama makes the right pick they'll have no choice.
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Sri da gawd coming up boys.
 
B-Dubs said:
If I remember right a nominee can be fillibustered, but I doubt that's going to be an issue here. If Obama makes the right pick they'll have no choice.
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If McConnell signals that he would allow a vote, I could see Cruz or someone else saying fuck you to him and filibustering it anyway. Cloture is likely to be needed.
 
Oh Hai Guise, I miss anything?

I know you've all been waiting for me to post! Sadly, fixing some things around my place this Valentine's, I sliced my hand open between the thumb and index finger. Nothing serious, just needed stitches for the first time in my life but I didn't feel like typing more than was necessary since stretching the hand could rip the sutures, so I haven't posted. They'll come out Sunday.

Anyway...Scalia's dead is obviously a big deal. I think the gop would be nuts not to confirm an Obama nominee. It would be ridiculous to not even consider, let alone eventually confirm. Obama ending up determining the direction of the Court is the ultimate FUCK YOU troll move to the GOP.

Alternatively, if I was Hillary Clinton, I'd seriously consider campaigning right now on the notion that if the GOP doesn't confirm an Obama appointment, that on day 1 she will appoint Obama to the SCOTUS. And by running on it and winning it in the election, the GOP would be stuck allowing it. Go for maximum salt.


And thank god some economists lashed out at Bernie, finally. As I said last week, he's endorsing bullshit math that the GOP has been using for years, now. The Democrats do not need to walk this path. It's fine to propose the things he's proposing, but stop with the horseshit about things like highest employment rate ever.
 
Basileus777 said:
If McConnell signals that he would allow a vote, I could see Cruz or someone else saying fuck you to him and filibustering it anyway. Cloture is likely to be needed.
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Forcing a cloture vote is done by putting a hold on a vote. A hold is just an agreement by the Majority Leader to have somebody object to the motion to consider the question whenever it gets made.

If McConnell really hates Cruz he can just wait till he's out of the chamber and call the question, disregarding the hold. Nothing Cruz can do.
 
pigeon said:
Forcing a cloture vote is done by putting a hold on a vote. A hold is just an agreement by the Majority Leader to have somebody object to the motion to consider the question whenever it gets made.

If McConnell really hates Cruz he can just wait till he's out of the chamber and call the question, disregarding the hold. Nothing Cruz can do.
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I would assume that since he's campaigning he's out of chamber often.
 
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