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[Cesare Borgia]

Surprise: Trump falls behind Cruz in natl NBC/WSJ poll
Cruz 28
Trump 26
Rubio 17
Kasich 11
Carson 10
Jeb 4

Multiple polls with Jeb in last place, either nationally or in SC. I just don't believe it but maybe I should. He had a good debate last week IMO, or at least a "not bad" one...but he's still a terrible candidate.

 

[Black Mamba]

That NBC poll is a blatant outlier given all of the information we have at the moment, but maybe the trend goes towards Cruz over the next few days. Or, it doesn't.

It's either an outlier or the first poll during a major shift. Only explanations and we can't know the answer, yet.

 

[Fenderputty]

This is what NC's new congressional maps will look like:


Old map:

What's the expected affects of the new proposed map?

 

[Allard]

This looks much less gerrymandered.

Well, except for 4, what the heck.

At least 4 doesn't look like an octopus shat itself like a lot of gerrymandered states/districts can look like (yes even democratic ones), it doesn't circle itself at least and has a defined border that doesn't cross into and out of and then back in again like some of the worst ones, trying to think of a less gerrymandered look then this.

 

[ivysaur12]

It's either an outlier or the first poll during a major shift. Only explanations and we can't know the answer, yet.

Dead heat.

 

[Makai]

Morning Consult poll is more recent and has Trump 30 points ahead of Cruz.

 

[Abinash117]

With all the money the GOP candidates have it seems really crazy just how terrible some of these campaign are doing. It looks like they waste too much money on ads than anything else. After all the debates which had record numbers, some of these candidates are still doing poorly and I think some still have relatively low familiarity like Kasich.

 

[Third Strike]

What's the expected affects of the new proposed map?

I need to examine this map more thoroughly, but it does look like the districts could become more competitive, at least in comparison to the old map. District 2 looks like it could be a pick-up for the Democrats.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

That Umass Socialist projecting that the multiplier is at 1.25 right now (at 5% unemployment...), uhh, not sure about that, dude.

Changes in employment are estimated from their estimates of GDP growth on the assumption that every 2.32% increase in GDP will bring a 1% increase in employment.

.... Does this guy not assume an upper bound for employment?

Higher demand for labor is also associated with an increase in labor productivity and this accounts for about half of the increase in economic growth under the Sanders program.

Alrighty then.


http://www.dollarsandsense.org/What-would-Sanders-do-013016.pdf

5.3% growth, highest employment rate in U.S. history despite massive tax rates for every bracket.

Bernie is the Paul Ryan of the left if he starts promoting these estimates...

 

[NeoXChaos]

at this point the media will call SC for Trump as soon as polls close.

 

[danm999]

at this point the media will call SC for Trump as soon as polls close.

Seems likely.

 

[Veritigo_X]

at this point the media will call SC for Trump as soon as polls close.

That's what happened in NH.

 

[Rafa=FedKilla]

Surprise: Trump falls behind Cruz in natl NBC/WSJ poll
Cruz 28
Trump 26
Rubio 17
Kasich 11
Carson 10
Jeb 4

That's an outlier, others have Trump big. This must be a Politico funded poll.
Quinnipiac
Trump 39
Cruz 19
Marco! 18

 

[Macho Madness]

Yeah. Bernie and Trump were called at the same time in New Hampshire essentially as soon as they saw that the exit polls were lining up. The same will happen with South Carolina.

 

[B-Dubs]

Looking good to me!

DAT trolling :lol

 

[Holmes]

Yeah, South Carolina will be called for Clinton and Trump when the polls close. As for Super Tuesday, Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas and maybe Virginia are called for Clinton when polls close, and Vermont and maybe Minnesota are called for Sanders when polls close/caucus begins.

 

[Macho Madness]

Maybe NBC just wanted to see Trump sue.

 

[Fenderputty]

. District 2 looks like it could be a pick-up for the Democrats.

Man I sure hope so.

 

[danm999]

Yeah, South Carolina will be called for Clinton and Trump when the polls close. As for Super Tuesday, Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas and maybe Virginia are called for Clinton when polls close, and Vermont and maybe Minnesota are called for Sanders when polls close/caucus begins.

Vermont can be called before the polls close +76 Sanders holy shit.

 

[vicissitudes]

Vermont can be called before the polls close +76 Sanders holy shit.

Vermont could have been called a month ago tbh.

 

[Atomic Playboy]

Vermont could have been called a month ago tbh.

Vermont was called the second Sanders announced his candidacy.

 

[danm999]

Vermont was called for Sanders the second it was admitted to the Union.

 

[HylianTom]

It still amazes me to this day that Vermont went red in 1988..

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

High negative correlation between being a Republican and having a job that could be replaced by a robot.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...s-are-at-greater-risk-of-job-automation/#fn-6

Doesn't look like there causality, but the article suggests that automation could become a partisan issue in the future.

Would be difficult for the Republicans to pivot to Ludditism though, what with the messaging of Rubio and Ryan, right?

 

[Teggy]

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 8h8 hours ago
.@FoxNews is so biased it is disgusting. They do not want Trump to win. All negative!

Trump referring to himself in the third person? Is this a hint that Trump has people tweeting for him in character?

 

[A Human Becoming]

“runaway trump, never goin’ back /
right way on the outsider track /
seems like rubio should be getting somewhere /
somehow cruz is neither here nor there”

Probably been posted but Nate can be funny!

 

[AnotherNils]

Vermont was called for Sanders the second it was admitted to the Union.

Vermont was called for Sanders the second Columbus discovered America.

 

[Holmes]

Race relations is kind of a dumb question to ask, especially in near-100% white states but whatever.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Vermont was called for Sanders the second Columbus discovered America.

Vermont was called for Sanders the second that the stars containing the stuff that created the earth exploded.

 

[ivysaur12]

Vermont was called for Sanders the second that the stars containing the stuff that created the earth exploded.

Vermont was called for Sanders the moment of Initial Singularity before the Big Bang existed.

 

[Aaron Strife]

It still amazes me to this day that Vermont went red in 1988..

The Northeast's sharp leftward turn makes the (very old) saying "As Maine goes, so goes Vermont" funnier in hindsight.

I believe FDR quipped that about one of his reelection campaigns, as Maine was previously a bellwether but it and Vermont were the only two states to vote against him.

 

[Hilbert]

Hey guys, I am starting to suspect Vermont may go to Sanders.

 

[Macho Madness]

Hey guys, I am starting to suspect Vermont may go to Sanders.

I need more polls. This PPP could be an outlier.

 

[Bowdz]

Vermont was called for Sanders the moment of Initial Singularity before the Big Bang existed.

Vermont was called for Sander's before our Lord and Savior Lord Elon Musk, blessed be his name, created the singularity which preceded the big bang.

 

[CCS]

So I heard that Sanders may go to Vermont.

 

[soul creator]

Vermont was called for Sanders the moment of Initial Singularity before the Big Bang existed.

Vermont was called in the future at the heat death of the universe which then looped back to its birth because time is a flat circle

 

[Fenderputty]

Vermont was called for Sanders the second that the stars containing the stuff that created the earth exploded.

I had no idea so many determinists resided here.

 

[eBay Huckster]

The Northeast's sharp leftward turn makes the (very old) saying "As Maine goes, so goes Vermont" funnier in hindsight.

I believe FDR quipped that about one of his reelection campaigns, as Maine was previously a bellwether but it and Vermont were the only two states to vote against him.

It was actually DNC chairman Jim Farley who made that quip.

 

[RastaMentality]

Wow, @FeministaJones endorsed Hillary:

"I want to know that the candidate I'm voting for acknowledges our struggles." —@FeministaJones http://hrc.io/1Szkxse

 

[GregLombardi]

I just saw a local poll on my local news in RI that showed Sanders has a 5% lead or something over Clinton in Massachusetts, I don't remember the polling shop though.

 

[Macho Madness]

The Northeast's sharp leftward turn makes the (very old) saying "As Maine goes, so goes Vermont" funnier in hindsight.

I believe FDR quipped that about one of his reelection campaigns, as Maine was previously a bellwether but it and Vermont were the only two states to vote against him.

This is true. The 1936 election brought about the rise of Gallup and the polling systems largely still used today. Before then, it was haphazard and the most famous use was a magazine that polled using mail in surveys and predicted FDR would lose by like 300 electoral votes. FDR won with well over 400 electorals. The magazine went under soon after.

Before that election, the saying was "As Maine goes, so does the Country".

 

[RastaMentality]

Same, it'd be fun for once. That's a pretty ambitious list for Sanders, though. Kind of underscores how high of a hill he has to climb, not to mention his momentum being completely derailed after Super Tuesday.

If Clinton comes out and wins Kansas, Louisiana, and Nebraska, it's over.

EDIT: LOL I didn't see that he has to win New York. Yeah, no.

Nate did just tweet:

California could be the most important battle between Bernie and Hillary .. and it doesn't vote until June 7. http://53eig.ht/2192qeg

 

[NeoXChaos]

Emerson College Poll

Breaking: Latest #SouthCarolina Poll Results:
Donald Trump: 33%
Ted Cruz: 20%
Marco Rubio: 19%
Jeb Bush: 9%
John Kasich: 9%
Ben Carson: 5%

 

[User 463088]

Anyone hearing that NBC/WSJ poll with Cruz in first? Ya'll might have already talked about it.

 

[johnsmith]

Wow, @FeministaJones endorsed Hillary:

Apparently she killed it at that Harlem speech

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/02/how-hillary-clinton-won-harlem.html

 

[Iolo]

Anyone hearing that NBC/WSJ poll with Cruz in first? Ya'll might have already talked about it.

We discussed it in a previous universe just after Vermont was called for Sanders.

 

[j_k_redtail]

2012 flashback:

What that would mean for the GOP would differ wildly depending on which of the two current front-runners, along with the coalition that elevated him to the nomination, is blamed for the debacle. “If Romney is the nominee and he loses in November, I think we’ll see a resurgence of the charismatic populist right,” says Robert Alan Goldberg, a history professor at the University of Utah and author of a biography of Barry Goldwater. “Not only will [the grassroots wing] say that Romney led Republicans down the road to defeat, but that the whole type of conservatism he represents is doomed.”

http://nymag.com/news/features/gop-primary-heilemann-2012-3/index6.html

 

[User 463088]

We discussed it in a previous universe just after Vermont was called for Sanders.

Hillary's going to win Vermont, and by win I mean lose by 80 points. If she loses by 70 points or less, it's a moral victory. That's how it works, right?

Bernie trying to Bernsplain Killer Mike's statements. Awesome.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

Same, it'd be fun for once. That's a pretty ambitious list for Sanders, though. Kind of underscores how high of a hill he has to climb, not to mention his momentum being completely derailed after Super Tuesday.

If Clinton comes out and wins Kansas, Louisiana, and Nebraska, it's over.

EDIT: LOL I didn't see that he has to win New York. Yeah, no.

I'm confident that Bernie is winning Kansas and Nebraska and Hillary is winning Louisiana.

 

[Macho Madness]

I don't know what happened but Nate bumped Clinton winning Nevada to 70%.